By Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team
Key Take-Away: Iraqi Security Forces have advanced towards and are proximate to infrastructure necessary for assault on downtown Ramadi. Encirclement of the city has been slow as the Iraqi Security Forces are still clearing the city’s environs, a necessary step before launching an offensive against the city.
ISW’s Control Map of Ramadi has changed to clarify the positions of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in Ramadi’s environs.
ISW’s Control Map of Ramadi has changed to clarify the positions of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in Ramadi’s environs.
Changes to Map:
ISW has changed the control map of Ramadi from the previous
iteration on November 2 to reflect a more refined assessment of where the ISF
maintain presence. The ISF are launching efforts to recapture Ramadi from
Habaniya base, east of Ramadi. It is likely that the ISF also maintain forward
positions around Ramadi but do not have control over much of Ramadi’s outskirts
in a doctrinal sense. Rather, they contest Ramadi’s suburbs and surrounding
neighborhoods in the outskirts by attacking an area, along with tribal fighters,
and then launching clearing operations in the same area. This disposition is
more effective than previous tactics that involved the ISF shuttling back and
forth between the front lines and its bases, especially if the ISF maintain a
forward presence, in the manner of the successful clear and hold operations during
the Surge. As these areas are still being cleared but have an ISF presence in
them, the relevant areas on the map have been denoted as “Contested with ISF
presence.”
Situation Report:
The ISF is approaching three important infrastructural facilities
around Ramadi: the Ramadi Barrage, the Warrar Dam, and the Palestine Bridge.
Control over these locations is necessary to cut off ISIS’s supply routes into
the city as well as to prepare for future operation to recapture the downtown
area. The ISF are advancing towards the Palestine
Bridge (2) that connects Albu Thiab area north of Ramadi with the city’s western
environs. The ISF are likely advancing towards the bridge from both the east and
the west, though this has not been confirmed. Seizing the bridge is important in
order to prevent ISIS from using the Euphrates River to resupply its positions
in Ramadi, according to the U.S. military. The ISF are also advancing towards
the former Anbar Operations Command (AOC) headquarters compound (8) north of
Ramadi, likely from Albu Faraj area east of the compound. The AOC headquarters
is a strategic position that overlooks the ISIS-controlled Warrar Dam (4), a
key dam that controls Euphrates River water levels and acts as a bridge into
Warrar neighborhood in central Ramadi. If the ISF secure the AOC headquarters
and approaches the Dam, they will cut off ISIS’s ground access to Ramadi from
the north and secure an important facility and access point into the center of
the city. Security forces also continued operations to encircle Ramadi and the ISIS-held
Ta’mim neighborhood area from the west. The ISF advanced into the Glass Factory area (9) on
November 8. This area is adjacent to the Ramadi Barrage (3), a dam that
controls water flow to Lake Habaniya, south of Ramadi, and acts as a bridge
into the Warrar neighborhood.
If the ISF can hold the Glass Factory and approach the Ramadi
Barrage, they would overlook multiple access points into central Ramadi: from
the west over the Ramadi Barrage; from the north over Albu Faraj Bridge; and
from the Anbar University area and the southern axis. ISW will monitor both whether
the ISF around Ramadi ensure that cleared areas remain cleared and the capacity
of forward-deployed ISF units to resist ISIS’s counter-attacks. The ISF’s
seizure of key infrastructure around the city will set important conditions in
the operation to recapture Ramadi from ISIS.