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Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Erdogan Prepares Underhanded Response to Turkey's Vote

By Elizabeth Teoman

Key Takeaway: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing for an imminent challenge to the victory of his political opposition in Istanbul. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost the key urban centers of Istanbul and Ankara in the 2019 Turkish Local Election held on March 31, 2019. Erdogan has rejected these results and plans to seek a total annulment of the vote in Istanbul. Regardless of the ultimate ruling by the Turkish Supreme Election Board, this approach will further disrupt the fragile electoral processes and institutions in Turkey. Erdogan could exploit a protracted legal dispute over the election to fraudulently reverse the results and partially reverse the gains of the opposition.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing a dangerous course of action to annul unfavorable local election results in Istanbul.
  • The AKP is poised to lose the key urban centers of Istanbul and Ankara to the rival Republican People’s Party (CHP) following the 2019 Turkish Local Elections. The Turkish Supreme Election Board already validated the victory of the CHP in Ankara on April 8.[1]
  • Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) Deputy Chair Ali Ihsan Yavuz stated on April 9 that the AKP will petition the Turkish Supreme Election Board to invalidate the results in Istanbul.
  • Erdogan holds a strong personal connection to Istanbul. Erdogan began his career in politics with his election as the Mayor of Istanbul in 1994. He is unlikely to concede this core terrain without a fight and has already blamed the “irregular” results on “organized crime” networks in Istanbul.
  • Erdogan met with the AKP’s Supreme Executive Board in Ankara on April 10. The Board reportedly reviewed a comprehensive district-by-district analysis of the election results. It may also decide to meet again after a possible decision on a new round of voting in Istanbul.
Erdogan has likely secured support from his nationalist allies for a new election in Istanbul.
  • Erdogan met with allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on April 10. This meeting may presage an imminent call to annul the vote and hold new elections in Istanbul from Erdogan.
  • Bahceli previously expressed support for proposed new elections in Istanbul on April 9. His support signals that the AKP and MHP will likely remain unified within their joint People's Alliance despite their unexpected losses in the 2019 Turkish Local Elections.
Erdogan has escalated his public intimidation of the Turkish Supreme Election Board.
  • Erdogan claimed that authorities have not yet eliminated the influence of the outlawed Gulen Movement from all institutions during an event in Ankara on April 10.
  • Erdogan’s statement is likely a threat directed at the Turkish Supreme Election Board, which ruled against several recount petitions by the AKP. It could alternatively aim to set conditions for future investigations against his opponents, including CHP Mayor-Elect of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu.
  • Erdogan’s behavior is consistent with his long-standing campaigns to discredit rival institutions that could curb his power and undermine popular trust in the political opposition.
It remains unclear whether the Turkish Supreme Election Board can withstand the pressure from Erdogan and whether Erdogan will settle for only a partial annulment of the results in Istanbul.
  • The AKP has not yet formally applied to annul the election results in Istanbul. It may still reevaluate its strategy during an upcoming meeting on April 12. The Turkish Supreme Election Board will likely rule on any challenge within twenty-four hours of receiving a formal request.
  • The Turkish Supreme Election Board may call for only a partial annulment of several contested districts rather than the entirety of Istanbul. It has in particularly focused its review on allegations of voter fraud raised in the opposition-leaning Buyukcekmece District of Istanbul.
  • Erdogan will likely be unable to reverse the results in Istanbul in the event of a partial annulment without an expensive and widespread campaign of fraud organized by the AKP. The CHP is likely to call for mass street protests to reject any partial or full annulment in Istanbul.
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[1] Fatih Hafiz Mehmet, “Turkey: Mansur Yavas Becomes New Ankara Mayor,” Anadolu Agency, April 8, 2019, https://www.aa.com(.)tr/en/politics/turkey-mansur-yavas-becomes-new-ankara-mayor/1445244.