tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34508507366170633862024-03-19T04:47:07.372-04:00ISW BlogInstitute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comBlogger2730125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-42531748883929700632024-03-18T22:06:00.006-04:002024-03-18T22:06:50.284-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">Angelica Evans, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 18, 2024, 8:35pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:00pm ET on March 18. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed occupied Crimea 10 years ago, setting conditions for the full conquest of Ukraine Putin still seeks. </strong>Putin signed an illegal annexation treaty with Crimean occupation officials on March 18, 2014, after Russian soldiers without identifying insignia (also known colloquially as “little green men” and, under international law, illegal combatants) swiftly and quietly invaded Crimea in February 2014.[1] Russian occupation officials staged a false and illegitimate referendum in Crimea on March 16, 2014, calling on Russia to annex Crimea.[2] Putin delivered an annexation speech to the Russian government on March 18, 2014, establishing the same false narratives he later used to set information conditions to justify and launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Putin falsely claimed that Russia was protecting Crimeans from the “oppressive“ Ukrainian government, that Ukraine is not a real state, and that Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians shared the same culture, civilization, and human values.[3] Putin celebrated the 10th anniversary of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea on March 18, 2024, during which he attempted to justify his continued occupation of parts of Donbas and southern Ukraine and to set conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.[4]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian occupation authorities have consistently oppressed Ukrainians on the peninsula — the same charge of which Putin accused the Ukrainian government to justify his invasion — and Russia has since militarized Crimea to support its broader territorial ambitions against Ukraine.</strong> Putin militarized Crimea for eight years and used it to launch a large-scale invasion of southern Ukraine in February 2022.[5] Russia also began efforts in 2014 to materially change the ethnic demographics of Crimea by resettling thousands of Russians in the peninsula and sought to eradicate both the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar national identities to further integrate Crimea into Russia and secure Russia’s control over the peninsula.[6] Amnesty International released a report commemorating the 10th anniversary of Crimean occupation on March 18 stating that Russian authorities have systematically tried to eradicate the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar national identities in Ukraine over the past 10 years by interrupting, limiting, and prohibiting the use of the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar languages.[7] Amnesty International also reported that Russian occupation authorities have suppressed religious and cultural rights in Crimea, and extensively restricted freedom of speech. ISW has previously assessed that Russia is using a similar occupation playbook to establish permanent control over newly occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[8] Putin’s aims were never limited to the annexation of Crimea, and his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>2022 under the amorphous stated goals of “demilitarizing,” “denazifying,” and rendering Ukraine “neutral,” indicates that Putin sought nothing less than regaining full Russian control of Ukraine and still maintains this objective today. The conditions of occupied Ukraine suggest, however, that prolonged Russian occupation of already occupied territories or the rest of Ukraine will be accompanied by oppression and ethnic cleansing to consolidate permanent Russian control.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use claimed record levels of voter turnout and support for his presidential candidacy to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine. </strong>The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) claimed on March 18 that Putin won the presidential election with 87.28 percent of the votes.[9] Russian CEC Chairperson Ella Pamfilova claimed that the Russian election had a record voter turnout of 77.44 percent.[10] The CEC claimed that the 2018 Russian presidential election had a 67.47 percent voter turnout and that Putin won with 76.67 percent of the vote.[11] Putin and senior Russian officials claimed that the reported record voter turnout and high public support for Putin demonstrated Russia’s unity and trust in Putin.[12] The CEC claimed that Putin won 88.12 to 95.23 percent of the vote in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, and Crimea.[13] Russian occupation officials have likely falsified record high support for Putin in occupied Ukraine and likely coerced Ukrainian citizens to participate in the elections, which were inherently coercive given the large number of Russian forces operating in occupied Ukraine.[14] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that 99.8 percent of the personnel in the Russian armed forces voted in the presidential election of whom 97.27 percent voted for Putin.[15] Putin claimed that he did not expect such high election results in occupied Ukraine and that the results demonstrate that people in occupied Ukraine are “grateful for Russian protection” and, therefore, he said that Russia will do everything to ensure the “protection” of occupied Ukraine.[16] Putin is likely continuing efforts to set informational conditions to justify a protracted conflict and long-term occupation of Ukraine under the guise of “protecting” civilians in occupied Ukraine who are only in danger because of the Russian invasion.[17]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposals to send Western troops to Ukraine by claiming that NATO personnel are already in Ukraine. </strong>Putin stated on March 18 that military personnel from NATO member countries are already in Ukraine, including personnel who speak French and English, and acknowledged Macron’s claim that Western personnel would perform “secondary functions.”[18] Putin also reiterated Kremlin talking points about the possibility of full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO and Russia’s feigned interest in peace negotiations aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine and convincing Western countries to push Ukraine into negotiations that would ultimately undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.[19] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Politico</em> recently reported that France is prepared to build a coalition of countries that are open to sending Western military personnel to Ukraine following Putin’s recent claims that "Western escalations,” such as sending NATO military contingents to Ukraine, could risk nuclear conflict.[20] Putin’s claim that Western military personnel are already operating in Ukraine suggests that Putin believes that the West has already violated this purported “red line,” and thus that Western concern over Russia’s response to the violation of the “red line” (if it ever existed at all) is baseless. ISW previously noted that Ukrainian forces and Western assistance to Ukraine have crossed Russia’s supposed “red lines” several times over the course of the war without drawing a significant Russian reaction, indicating that many of Russia’s “red lines” are most likely information operations designed to deter Ukrainian and Western actions.[21]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin re-emphasized the idea of a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine in a manner congruent with Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev’s recent call for the total elimination of Ukrainian statehood and absorption into the Russian Federation. </strong>Putin responded to a media question on March 18 on whether Russia needs to occupy Kharkiv Oblast to ensure security of Belgorod Oblast, stating that he does “not rule out” the idea of establishing a demilitarized “sanitary zone” in Ukrainian-controlled areas in response to recent “tragic events” along the Ukrainian-Russian international border. Putin was likely referring to recent pro-Ukrainian Russian cross-border raids in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.[22] Putin called the depth of this demilitarized zone a “separate issue” and refused to discuss which areas Russia needs to occupy and when, but noted that Russia may need a demilitarized zone that is difficult for Ukraine to “overcome” using “primarily foreign made” weapons.[23] Putin has previously emphasized the idea of a demilitarized zone that would push Russia and Russian-occupied of Ukraine out of range of both Ukrainian and Western-provided weapons, a goal that is unobtainable as long as Ukraine remains independent with any capability of fighting because Putin would likely lay claim to any Ukrainian territory in the demilitarized zone.[24] Putin’s demilitarized zone narrative is subtler than Medvedev’s direct calls for the total annihilation of the Ukrainian state but is still congruent with the goals outlined in Medvedev’s sardonically-named seven point “peace plan.”[25] Medvedev reiterated the Kremlin’s calls for Ukrainian “demilitarization,” “denazification,” and total defeat that Putin has highlighted as the Kremlin’s war aims since February 2022, and Medvedev’s seven points have a strong ideological basis in Putin’s 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” as ISW has previously reported.[26]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin admitted that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces are comprised of Russian citizens amid the continuation of cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast on March 18. </strong>Putin stated on March 18 that “four groups of traitors” (likely referring to the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), Siberian Battalion, and Ichkerian volunteers) are conducting cross-border raids into Russia and insinuated that Russia will execute the traitors.[27] Putin claimed that Russian forces have destroyed 800 of the 2,500 all-Russian pro-Ukrainian personnel he estimated to be involved in conducting the attacks into Russia.[28] Putin previously accused “Ukrainian forces” of conducted the cross-border raids on March 12 to 15.[29] Russian milbloggers praised Putin and agreed that Russian “traitors” need to “eliminated,” despite previously also claiming that “Ukrainian forces“ were conducting the raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.[30] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the volunteer forces continued limited ground attacks near Spodaryushino and Kozinka, Belgorod Oblast and the Siberian Battalion posted a photo claiming to show volunteer forces operating in Kozinka.[31] The Russian MoD recently added a section to its daily situational report to account for the “Belgorod direction,” suggesting concern within the Russian MoD regarding how long these cross-border raids will continue.[32] Pro-Russian all-Ukrainian volunteer forces conducted isolated cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast on March 22, June 1, and June 4–5 in 2023.[33] The previous raids appear to have been more limited than the current raids, which began on March 12 and have continued over the past six days.[34]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova baselessly accused Ukraine of conducting the reported March 17 drone strike against a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Moldova, likely as part of an ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova. </strong>Zakharova claimed on March 17 that the drone strike in Transnistria was a Ukrainian “attempt to shake [up] the situation in Transnistria and sow panic among Russian voters in Transnistria.”[35] Zakharova additionally claimed that official Moldovan statements denying Ukraine’s involvement in the strike are "ridiculous,” and Transnistrian authorities accused Moldovan authorities of an “inadequate reaction” to the strike and previous “terrorist attacks” in Transnistria.[36] The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration previously stated that the drone strike was deliberately meant to spread fear and panic in Transnistria, implying that the strike was part of an adversarial information operation targeting Moldova, and the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation accused Russia of conducting the strike to manipulate the information space.[37] ISW cannot independently verify the details of the singular drone strike in Transnistria or identify the responsible actors, but it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike given the limited means used in the strike and the insignificance of the target. Russia or Russian-linked actors could benefit from the strike in order to further the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to set information conditions to justify a variety of Russian hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldova.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed occupied Crimea 10 years ago, setting conditions for the full conquest of Ukraine Putin still seeks.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian occupation authorities have consistently oppressed Ukrainians on the peninsula — the same charge of which Putin accused the Ukrainian government to justify his invasion — and Russia has since militarized Crimea to support its broader territorial ambitions against Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use claimed record levels of voter turnout and support for his presidential candidacy to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposals to send Western troops to Ukraine by claiming that NATO personnel are already in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin reemphasized the idea of a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine in a manner congruent with Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev’s recent call for the total elimination of Ukrainian statehood and absorption into the Russian Federation.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin admitted that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces are comprised of Russian citizens amid the continuation of cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast on March 18.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova baselessly accused Ukraine of conducting the reported March 17 drone strike against a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Moldova, likely as part of an ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made a marginal confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia needs to form a veteran-led Russian “Administrative Corps” as part of the “Time of Heroes” initiative, which will incorporate Russian veterans into the Russian workforce.</strong></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces reportedly unsuccessfully attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and west of Kreminna near Terny.[39] Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) and the Chechen “Aida” detachment of the 204th “Akhmat” Spetsnaz Regiment are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka (south of Kreminna).[40]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="812" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces reportedly unsuccessfully attacked in the Siversk direction (northeast of Bakhmut) on March 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks near Rozdolivka (southwest of Siversk).[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued near Bakhmut on March 18, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional engagements continued west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and in the direction of Chasiv Yar; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[42] Elements of the Russian 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue operating northwest of Bakhmut; and elements of the “Vostok” Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade are reportedly operating in the direction of Chasiv Yar.[43]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces reportedly advanced near Avdiivka on March 18, but there are no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced several hundred meters northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi and Orlivka and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[44] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces captured several positions near Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[45] Positional engagements continued northwest of Bakhmut near Oleksandropil, Berdychi, Semenivka, and Orlivka; west of Avdiivka near Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[46]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 18 that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces is deployed and operates along two main directions: Toretsk (northwest of Horlivka) and Pokrovsk (northwest of Avdiivka).[47] Mashovets specified that the Central Grouping of Forces includes Russian elements of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Army Corps, and 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAA), 41st CAA, and 90th Tank Division (all Central Military District [CMD]). Mashovets stated that the Russian elements of the 1st DNR Army Corps including five regiments and four battalions are operating in the direction of Toretsk. Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 2nd CAA, 41st CAA, 90th Tank Division, and 1st DNR Army Corps consisting of up to 23 regiments, 13 battalions, and four detachments — including some Storm (likely referring to Russian convict assault units) and BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) units — are operating in the Pokrovsk direction. Mashovets stated that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces is prioritizing offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction but could regroup to focus its offensive efforts in the Toretsk direction.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="729" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 18, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional engagements continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.[48] Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Krasnohorivka.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="769" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 18, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional engagements continued south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Vodyane.[50] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 5th CAA, 29th CAA, 36th CAA (all Eastern Military District [EMD]), and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are operating in the Velyka Novosilka area and amount to at least nine separate brigades, 11 regiments, and six battalions.[51]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="700" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional fighting in the area on March 18. Geolocated footage published on March 17 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced east of Luhivske (northeast of Robotyne).[52] A Russian milblogger claimed on March 17 that Russian forces have captured half of Robotyne.[53] Positional fighting continued near Robotyne, Verbove (east of Robotyne), and Myrne (northeast of Robotyne).[54] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that elements of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army ([CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]), and 7th and 76th airborne (VDV) divisions are fighting as part of the “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Mashovets stated that the “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces consists of two separate motorized rifle brigades and “combined brigade tactical groups of military bases“ (presumably brigade-sized tactical formations created from one or more bases outside of doctrinal unit structures); up to 19 motorized rifle and VDV regiments; and at least 18 battalions and battalion-sized units of different types.[55] Elements of the Russian 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA) and the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) also continue operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[56] Elements of the Russian 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division) continue operating near Robotyne.[57]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="635" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="632" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky on March 18.[58] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions near the Antonivsky bridge, likely referring to the Antonivsky roadway bridge.[59]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine overnight on March 17 and March 18. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched five S-300/400 missiles against Kharkiv Oblast and two Kh-59 cruise missiles against Sumy Oblast.[60] Ukrainian military officials also reported that Russian forces launched 22 Shahed 136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and that Ukrainian forces shot down 17 Shaheds over Kyiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhia, and Rivne oblasts.[61] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down one Shahed over Zaporizhia Oblast and two Shaheds over Kryvyi Rih area in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, but that an unspecified number of Shaheds struck and damaged private industrial facilities and residential buildings in Kirovohrad Oblast.[62] A Russian milblogger claimed that explosions were heard in Volyn Oblast and that Russian forces struck the Svitlovodsk Oil Depot in Svitlovodsk, Kirovohrad Oblast.[63]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces likely adopted a new missile strike tactic targeting Ukrainian emergency personnel who respond to the aftermath of Russian missile strikes. Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk assessed that Russian forces likely paused between two Iskander-M missile strikes against the same location in Mykolaiv City on March 17 to strike Ukrainian emergency personnel who would have arrived at the scene after the first strike.[64] Humenyuk added that Russian forces employed a similar tactic when launching missile strikes on Odesa City on March 15.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces have reportedly dropped over 16 times more aerial bombs in the first months of 2024 than in all of 2023. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk stated that Russian forces have dropped more than 3,500 aerial bombs on Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.[65]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia needs to form a veteran-led Russian “Administrative Corps” as part of the “Time of Heroes” initiative, which will incorporate Russian veterans into the Russian workforce.[66] Putin stated during his post-election press interview overnight on March 17 and March 18 that Russia must prepare veterans who fought in Ukraine by providing them with higher education to pursue careers in medicine, national defense and security, or government. The “Time of Heroes” initiative may be part of ongoing Russian efforts incentivizing Russians to sign military service contracts in an exchange for promises of compensation and state benefits.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian State Duma approved the second reading of a bill on March 18 that will free individuals of criminal liability if they sign contracts for military service.[67] The bill, which is likely to pass, will allow Russian authorities to expand their recruitment efforts beyond existing prisoner recruitment schemes.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik reported that North Korea shipped has about seven thousand containers with ammunition and other military equipment to Russia since unspecified timeframe in 2023.[68] Shin stated that North Korea likely received over 9,000 containers with aid from Russia.[69] South Korean officials and private experts stated that North Korea may have received food and economic aid and military assistance in upgrading its forces in exchange for its weapon deliveries to Russia.[70]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian state media claimed that Russian company “Kaysant” developed a system to shield Russian armored vehicles from first person vision (FPV) drones.[71] A Kaysant representative stated that the company developed a dome-type drone jammer that is designed for installation on vehicles and weighs only two kilograms. The system reportedly jams drones at 800 and 900 megahertz frequencies, and Kaysant plans to develop similar systems that will operate on three to four frequencies. Kaysant reportedly began production of these systems and had received orders from the Moscow government, and there are currently talks about mass deliveries of these systems to the frontlines.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s partners continue providing military assistance to Ukraine, including through the Czech artillery ammunition initiative. Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev stated on March 14 that Bulgaria is sending 100 armored personnel carriers (APCs) built in the 1960s and 1970s to Ukraine and that the first batch of 30 APCs arrived on March 7.[72] German defense giant Rheinmetall announced on March 14 that it intends to open at least four factories in Ukraine.[73] The Portuguese government announced that it will allocate 100 million euros (about $108.7 million) to the Czech artillery ammunition procurement initiative.[74] Greek outlet<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Kathimerini </em>reported on March 15 that Greek officials stated that Greece and the Czech Republic are negotiating a deal in which the Czech government will buy weapons from Greece and Greece will ship these weapons directly to Ukraine.[75] The deal includes 2,000 Zuni rockets, 75mm rocket ammunition, 90,000 rounds of anti-tank ammunition, four million small arms ammunition cartridges, and 70 155mm M114A1 howitzers. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and they discussed supplying more artillery ammunition to Ukraine through the Czech initiative and providing more long-range rocket artillery systems through a possible long-range artillery coalition.[76]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Kremlin officials and mouthpieces condemned Western leaders who refused to recognize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rigged victory in the Russian presidential election and widely amplified congratulatory messages from other foreign leaders. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Germany of Russophobia in response to the German MFA’s statement that Russia’s “elections” in occupied Ukraine are invalid and violate international law.[77] Russian milbloggers also ridiculed the German government for not congratulating Putin.[78] Kremlin newswire <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TASS</em> reported on March 18 that a number of former Soviet and authoritarian leaders friendly with Russia congratulated Putin on the election.[79]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov reiterated Kremlin narratives on March 18 intended to undermine Western support for Ukraine and additional US aid to Ukraine.[80] Antonov claimed that the US has abandoned restrictions on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and accused the US of directly participating in the war — a narrative that Kremlin officials routinely use to discourage further military aid to Ukraine.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_63.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_63.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://www.1tv dot ru/news/2014-03-18/46116-obraschenie_prezidenta_rf_vladimira_putina_polnaya_versiya; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/ukraine-russia-truce-crimea-referendum; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/24-210-01%20ISW%20Occupation%20playbook.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] http://en.kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/20603</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73670</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-%E2%80%94-military-strategic-financial-implications-russian</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/24-210-01%20ISW%20Occupation%20playbook.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://www.amnesty.org.ua/10-rokiv-aneksii-krymu-bryfing/; https://suspilne dot media/708072-rf-namagaetsa-zminiti-demograficne-rozmaitta-krimu-amnesty-international/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/24-210-01%20ISW%20Occupation%20playbook.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/18/tsik-putin-pobedil-na-vyborah-prezidenta-rf-s-rezultatom-87-28; http://www.cikrf dot ru/analog/prezidentskiye-vybory-2024/p_itogi/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/18/tsik-ob-yavil-o-rekordnoy-yavke-na-vyborah-prezidenta-rf-77-44; https://t.me/rian_ru/236203</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://meduza dot io/news/2018/03/19/tsik-yavka-na-vyborah-prezidenta-sostavila-67-4 ; http://cikrf dot ru/analog/prezidentskiye-vybory-2018/informatsionnoe-obespechenie/informatsionnyy-tsentr/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://t.me/tass_agency/237527 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237393 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237438 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237402 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237482 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237463 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237465 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237467 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237468 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237469 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237476</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://t.me/tass_agency/237355 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237362 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237364 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237393</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-19-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://t.me/mod_russia/36727 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36730</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://t.me/tass_agency/237521</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/24-210-01%20ISW%20Occupation%20playbook.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://iz dot ru/1666930/izvestiia/u-nas-vperedi-mnogo-konkretnykh-zadach ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237523</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://iz dot ru/1666930/izvestiia/u-nas-vperedi-mnogo-konkretnykh-zadach ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237523 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237500 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237503</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.interfax-russia dot ru/center/main/putin-ne-isklyuchayu-chto-my-vynuzhdeny-budem-sozdat-sanitarnuyu-zonu-na-granice</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://crimea.ria dot ru/20240318/putin-ne-isklyuchil-sozdanie-zony-bezopasnosti-na-ukraine-1135789299.html; https://www.interfax-russia dot ru/center/main/putin-ne-isklyuchayu-chto-my-vynuzhdeny-budem-sozdat-sanitarnuyu-zonu-na-granice</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://t.me/tass_agency/237492 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237493 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237494 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237495 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237496</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://t.me/tass_agency/237492 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237493 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237494 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237495 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237496</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031524 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/20245743</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://t.me/voin_dv/7549 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45609 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/7542 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63711 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45538 https://t.me/rybar/58171 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/14986 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34009</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://t.me/epoddubny/19400 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18804 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37219; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63952 ; https://t.me/rybar/58266 ; https://t.me/rybar/58262 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37199 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36741 ; https://t.me/SiberianBattalion/259; https://suspilne dot media/707876-rdk-ta-sibirskij-bataljon-pidnali-prapori-se-v-odnomu-rosijskomu-selisi/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://t.me/mod_russia/36675 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36711 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36741</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://isw.pub/UkrWar052223 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar052323 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar060123 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar060423 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar060523 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar060623</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031724</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://t.me/MID_Russia/36876</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://t.me/MIDPMR/576</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031724 ; https://t.me/CenterCounteringDisinformation/9636<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"> ; </span>https://gov dot md/ro/content/comentariul-biroului-politici-de-reintegrare</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030124</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13304 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/118476</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37199 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15777</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://t.me/mod_russia/36737 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37209</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://t.me/dva_majors/37199 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8378 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18804</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/rybar/58276</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36741 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36745 ; https://t.me/rybar/58276 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37199 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8378 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18804 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45617 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54865</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1713</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18804 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54865 ; https://t.me/rybar/58281</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://t.me/milinfolive/118475</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36741 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36746 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36738</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1714; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1713</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4788; https://facebook.com/share/v/Jj7L5TZSe11Mc3rn/?mibextid=KsPBc6</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://t.me/wargonzo/18800</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl; https://t.me/dva_majors/37199; https://t.me/wargonzo/18804</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1714</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://t.me/mod_russia/36751; https://t.me/voin_dv/7543</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/dva_majors/37207</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://t.me/dva_majors/37199; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02mM7UzjbDPHXf7crUx3VjE6ghAKdn1MaskPpS4hfyJWRu8fMx3NyqVCCFcuHtAkDbl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://t.me/dva_majors/37199</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://t.me/kpszsu/11993 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/18/syly-oborony-zbyly-17-z-22-shahediv/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02qSY1DLPFfNMs9pFLSkLRRt78WfmvkydoMtZrdkDQUUb1VbtRywYsWnMJg1n1yQi7l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0V2bB8fqnUkHHK7euVYzTnQeSW16xLu2Dt1Zfuc5u9CS56QyY8YuNRUxM7ugZNpNsl; https://t.me/kpszsu/11993 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/18/syly-oborony-zbyly-17-z-22-shahediv/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7289 ; https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid02VFUXQ8Mvkp4CJxTFYNiF8kMb7FXKKdbMBjM9863JL7LjpxdAMB8qQ4YB6VRhpdUTl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116988</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot media/708056-ruskij-mir-so-voni-prodemonstruvali-v-odesi-j-potim-u-mikolaevi-dijsno-rujnivnij-gumenuk/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3841358-cogoric-vorog-skinuv-na-pozicii-sil-oboroni-ponad-3500-aviabomb-generallejtenant-gavriluk.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://iz dot ru/1666993/2024-03-18/putin-schitaet-chto-upravlencheskii-korpus-rf-dolzhen-sostoiat-iz-uchastnikov-svo</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://t.me/tass_agency/237679</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-world/3841392-kndr-vze-vidpravila-do-rosii-7000-kontejneriv-iz-vijskovou-dopomogou-minoboroni-pivdennoi-korei.html ; https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-arms-transfers-ukraine-a37bc290ed3ee59cfbbafdc2a994dc58</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-world/3841392-kndr-vze-vidpravila-do-rosii-7000-kontejneriv-iz-vijskovou-dopomogou-minoboroni-pivdennoi-korei.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-arms-transfers-ukraine-a37bc290ed3ee59cfbbafdc2a994dc58</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://msk-news dot net/society/2024/03/18/484831.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://www.novinite dot com/articles/224860/Bulgaria+Sends+First+Shipment+of+Military+Aid+to+Ukraine%2C+Costing+Over+BGN+170%2C000 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/14/bolgariya-vidpravyla-ukrayini-sotnyu-bronetransporteriv/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/14/russia-ukraine-war-live-drone-strikes?page=with:block-65f318868f08fe8721ddfa73#block-</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://www.portugal.gov dot pt/pt/gc23/governo/comunicado-de-conselho-de-ministros?i=601 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/15/portugaliya-vydilyaye-100-mln-yevro-na-chesku-inicziatyvu-zakupivli-snaryadiv-dlya-ukrayiny/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] https://www.ekathimerini dot com/news/1234126/greece-will-keep-supplying-ukraine/; https://suspilne dot media/706922-grecia-gotue-vijskovu-dopomogu-dla-ukraini-zmi-diznalisa-so-vvijde-do-paketa/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hfz2bKdNkI ; https://suspilne dot media/706818-pributki-vid-zamorozenih-rosijskih-aktiviv-pidut-na-kupivlu-boepripasiv-dla-ukraini-solc/; https://apnews.com/article/germany-france-poland-ukraine-military-support-2b6615f15e05f166910c3141d3baac0f; https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/german-french-polish-leaders-meet-discuss-support-ukraine-108146094; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/15/german-french-and-polish-leaders-hold-emergency-meeting-on-ukraine</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/17/mzs-nimechchyny-zasudylo-rosijski-vybory-na-tymchasovo-okupovanyh-terytoriyah-ukrayiny/; https://x.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1769343212601118750?s=20 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237735</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] https://t.me/sashakots/45616 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116983 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18814</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] https://t.me/tass_agency/237459 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237536 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237539 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237545; https://t.me/tass_agency/237556 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237566 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237573 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237587 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237606 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237610 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237615 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237617 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237621 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237636 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237678 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237689 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237690 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237703 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237710 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237741 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237637</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] https://tass dot ru/politika/20266219 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63958 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237541 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237542</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-72787178331542093292024-03-18T20:26:00.003-04:002024-03-18T20:26:50.148-04:00 Iran Update, March 18, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Anne McGill, Talia Tayoun, Kelly Campa, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces conducted a "high-precision operation" at al Shifa Hospital on March 18 based on intelligence that Hamas was using it for militant activity.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that they had intelligence that senior Hamas officials were using the area to conduct and direct attacks in the Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> Israeli ground forces advanced to the hospital with bulldozers and tanks and detained more than 200 Palestinians.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> Palestinian militias, including Hamas, engaged Israeli forces around al Shifa Hospital during the operation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces killed Faiq al Mabhouh, who is a senior official in the Hamas-run Interior Ministry, during the operation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span> The IDF said that Mabhouh was the head of Hamas’ “Operations Directorate of the Internal Security Service,” while Hamas said that he was the “director of central operations of the Palestinian Police in Gaza.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> The Civil Police and the Interior Ministry‘s Internal Security Forces both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span> The IDF has warned that all members of “the Hamas apparatus,” including Hamas police officers, are legitimate targets during IDF operations in the Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</span> Mabhouh’s brother, Mahmoud Mabhouh, was a prominent figure in Hamas’ military wing, and Israel likely killed him in 2010.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas infiltration into the al Shifa Hospital area after Israel’s initial clearing operation highlights Hamas’ efforts to reestablish itself in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces initially expanded clearing operations to al Shifa Hospital in November 2023, targeting a Hamas tunnel network underneath the hospital.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span> Hamas has sought to reconstitute militarily and rebuild its governing authority in the northern Gaza Strip since Israeli forces reduced their presence there in December 2023. Israeli Army Radio reported in January 2023 that the Israeli military establishment believes that Hamas is trying to restore its control over the civilian population in the northern Gaza Strip partly by rehabilitating local police there.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Tehran on March 16 to discuss military cooperation with senior Iranian officials. </strong>Abbas met with Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Brig. Gen. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri from March 17 to 18.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Abbas may have discussed Iran transferring air defense systems to Syria during his meetings. Abbas discussed recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria and how to counter them, among other issues. Iranian leaders have sought in recent years to build an integrated air defense network in Syria that could repel Israeli airstrikes and thereby help Iran entrench itself militarily in Syria.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</span> The meetings with Ashtiani and Bagheri are particularly noteworthy in this context. Ashtiani, as defense minister, is primarily responsible for managing arms procurement and sales as well as the Iranian defense industrial base. Bagheri has previously pursued expanding air defense cooperation with Syria.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip:</strong> Israeli forces conducted a "high-precision operation" at al Shifa Hospital based on intelligence that Hamas was using it for militant activity.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Syria: </strong>Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Tehran to discuss military cooperation with senior Iranian officials.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank:</strong> Israeli police have conducted training exercises in recent weeks to prepare for possible Palestinian militia attacks into Israeli settlements in the West Bank.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a one-way drone attack targeting an unspecified Israeli airbase in the Golan Heights.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>Houthi-affiliated media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted 10 airstrikes targeting two Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2018%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson issued evacuation orders for parts of Rimal neighborhood and around al Shati Hospital in Gaza City on March 18.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The order requested residents immediately evacuate to the al Mawasi humanitarian zone in the southwest Gaza Strip.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The United States confirmed on March 18 that Israel killed Hamas military wing deputy commander Marwan Issa.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</strong> US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the rest of Hamas’ “top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in Hamas’ tunnel network.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> Issa worked closely with Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar and Hamas military wing commander Mohammad Deif to plan the October 7 attack.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2018%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An unspecified Israeli official told Reuters on March 18 that Israel will send a high-level delegation to Doha for mediated negotiations with Hamas.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The official estimated that negotiations could take at least two weeks, noting the difficulties that Hamas’ delegation has in communicating with Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip. An unspecified Israeli political official told Israeli media that the current negotiations are between Israel and Hamas’ leader for the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, rather than Hamas officials abroad who have “neither power nor decision-making ability.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</span> Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Israel Katz noted in reference to the Israeli delegation that Israel will not be able to fight Hamas if Palestinian civilians return to the northern Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</span> Hamas has demanded that the IDF allow civilians to return to the northern Gaza Strip as part of ceasefire negotiations.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</span> CTP-ISW previously reported how Hamas could use the return of civilians to the north to bring its own fighters back into the area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unspecified US officials told NBC News on March 15 that Israel is considering using international private security contractors to protect aid convoys in the Gaza Strip.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</strong> The officials said that Israel has already approached several security companies but did not specify which ones. Israeli media reported on March 8 that Israeli officials have discussed arming civilians in the Gaza Strip to provide security for aid convoys.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</span> The United States has warned Israel that a “total breakdown of law and order” is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</span> The absence of a local security force contributes to this issue.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[26]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The US officials also noted that the United States is considering using unspecified Palestinian security providers, that are unaffiliated with Hamas, to distribute humanitarian aid.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[27]</span> The United States plans to construct a temporary pier on the coast of the Gaza Strip to facilitate the arrival and distribution of humanitarian aid.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[28]</span> The United States has stressed that US service members will not operate on the ground in the Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[29]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and other Hamas officials met with a Chinese delegation in Qatar on March 17.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The Chinese ambassador to Qatar led the Chinese delegation. The two sides discussed the current situation in the Gaza Strip and ways to end the war.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 18.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters at least twice in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 17.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli police have conducted training exercises in northwestern Israel in recent weeks to prepare for possible Palestinian militia attacks from Jenin and other areas in the West Bank into Israeli settlements.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The Israeli Lowland Police Division commander said that Israeli police are ”prepared for any scenario and intrusion.” Israeli forces have conducted numerous operations against Palestinian fighters in Jenin since the Israel-Hamas war began, including a three-day operation in the Jenin refugee camp in December 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[33]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 17.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a one-way drone attack targeting an unspecified Israeli airbase in the Golan Heights on March 18.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35]</strong> The group also claimed that it will “double” its attacks during the month of Ramadan, which began on March 10 and ends on April 9.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[36]</span> Jordanian air defenses detected “suspicious aerial movements” along the Jordan-Syria border on March 18.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[37]</span> A regional security source told Western media that the movements were likely missiles fired from Iraq by Iranian-backed militias.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[38]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2018%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi military spokesperson Major General Yahya Rasoul stated on March 18 that Iraq has sent military delegations to several unspecified countries to purchase anti-aircraft weapons.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Iraqi officials have called for strengthening Iraq’s air defense systems in recent weeks, particularly in response to US airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. A member of the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, which is controlled by the Iranian-backed Badr Organization, claimed in early February 2024 that Iraq’s lack of advanced air defenses enables foreign airstrikes in Iraqi territory.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[40]</span> The committee member further claimed that the United States “refuses” to supply air defense systems to Iraq so that it can continue its “aggression” against Iraq.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[41]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani met with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi in Baghdad on March 18 to discuss the IAEA’s efforts to help Iraq develop a peaceful nuclear program.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42]</strong> Sudani and Grossi discussed Iraq’s previous efforts to establish nuclear reactors.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[43]</span> Sudani emphasized that nuclear energy should be a “source of prosperity” and should not be used to develop lethal weapons.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[44]</span> Grossi invited an Iraqi delegation to visit the IAEA headquarters in Vienna to “set out a road map for the Iraqi peaceful nuclear program.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[45]</span> Grossi also invited Sudani to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels on March 21.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[46]</span> Iraq faces a power shortage and needs more energy to produce electricity.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</span> Iraq currently imports electricity from neighboring countries, such as Iran, which supplied approximately 25 percent of Iraq’s electricity in 2022.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[48]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Local Syrian opposition media reported on March 18 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seeks to expand its military infrastructure at al Hamdan Airport in eastern Syria.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>This reporting is consistent with Iran’s long-standing efforts to secure a permanent presence there. The IRGC has previously conducted training exercises at the airport.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[50]</span> The same Syrian opposition source claimed that the Lebanon-based construction company Jihad al Binaa will help the IRGC expand its operations at the airport.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[51]</span> Jihad al Binaa is a Lebanese Hezbollah-run and Iranian-funded construction company subject to secondary sanctions as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[52]</span> Iran uses military infrastructure in eastern Syria to secure a safe route through which it can facilitate Iranian weapons shipments to its proxies and partners in the region.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Houthi-affiliated media claimed on March 18 that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted 10 airstrikes targeting two Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The Houthi source said that the strikes occurred in al Fazah and al Jabanah in Hudaydah Governorate. Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom have confirmed the strikes at the time of this writing.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2018%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2018%2C2024.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2018%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wall Street Journal</em> reported on March 17 that Niger ended its counterterrorism cooperation with the United States after US officials accused Niger of secretly exploring a deal to allow Iran access to its uranium reserves.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Niger is the seventh largest uranium producer in the world.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[55]</span> Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated that a US delegation traveled to Niger last week to express numerous concerns, including regarding Niger’s potential relations with Iran and Russia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[56]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">CTP previously assessed that it is possible, though unlikely, that Iran attempts to obtain Nigerien uranium.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[57]</span> The Nigerien junta has not indicated that it intends to replace the French- and Canadian-based mining companies that currently own the majority shares in nearly all Nigerien uranium mines, including the only active one.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[58]</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_62.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_62.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</span> https://www.idf dot il/186720</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769694856048156931</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1769536658838311060</span>; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769795945342877947</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1770</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6031</span>; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4174</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1769711531229417828</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19773</span>; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1769711531229417828</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/internal_security_force/</span>; https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/civil_police/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1760344162035970506</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1769708173294776422</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.i24news</span> dot tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-operative-killed-at-shifa-revealed-as-sibling-of-former-hamas-leader-assassinated-in-dubai</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span> https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1727409278636478519</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</span> https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1747181096251314253</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span> https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/27/3056421 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/28/3056863 ; https://farsnews dot ir/Rahgozar_b/1710660928444349432/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</span> https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-iran-keeps-building-air-defense-network-syria-israel-keeps-bombing-it-1772013</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1769613852021231856</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</span> https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/world/middleeast/who-was-marwan-issa.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.timesofisrael</span> dot com/liveblog_entry/us-confirms-israel-killed-hamas-no-3-marwan-issa/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span> https://www.timesofisrael dot com/israel-hamas-both-said-probing-fate-of-terror-groups-no-3-targeted-in-airstrike/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-offer-six-week-gaza-truce-40-hostages-qatar-talks-israeli-official-says-2024-03-18/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</span> https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/s135dwb0a</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</span> https://www.maariv dot co.il/news/politics/Article-1084623</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</span> https://www.axios.com/2024/03/04/ceasefire-palestinians-hostage-northern-gaza-israel-hamas</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-4-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</span> https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-weighs-private-security-contractors-protect-gaza-aid-shipments-rcna143493</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</span> https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/report-israeli-officials-mull-arming-some-gaza-civilians-as-aid-security-crumbles/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</span> https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/gaza-humanitarian-aid-israel-hamas-police-biden</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[26]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/with-police-absent-gaza-vigilante-groups-arrive-streets-2024-03-06/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[27]</span> https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-weighs-private-security-contractors-protect-gaza-aid-shipments-rcna143493</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[28]</span> https://time.com/6898705/read-president-joe-bidens-2024-state-of-the-union-address-full-transcript/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[29]</span> https://time.com/6898705/read-president-joe-bidens-2024-state-of-the-union-address-full-transcript/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[30]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19765</span>; https://t.me/hamasps/19766</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[31]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/383120</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/383113</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/383111</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[32]</span> https://www.jpost dot com/israel-hamas-war/article-792387</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[33]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-steps-up-raids-in-flashpoint-west-bank-city-0b9818a6</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[34]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2706</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2707</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47348</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2710</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2712</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2714</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2716</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[35]</span> https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/992</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[36]</span> https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/992</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[37]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/jordan-army-says-it-detected-suspicious-aerial-movements-near-syria-border-2024-03-17/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[38]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/jordan-army-says-it-detected-suspicious-aerial-movements-near-syria-border-2024-03-17/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[39]</span> https://alghadeertv dot iq/archives/265736</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[40]</span> https://baghdadtoday dot news/244288-البرلمان-يتحدث-عن-استراتيجية-الدفاع-الجوي-في-العراق.-ماذا-عن-الفيتو-الأمريكي؟.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[41]</span> https://baghdadtoday dot news/244288-البرلمان-يتحدث-عن-استراتيجية-الدفاع-الجوي-في-العراق.-ماذا-عن-الفيتو-الأمريكي؟.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[42]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-help-iraq-develop-peaceful-nuclear-programme-agency-head-says-2024-03-18/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[43]</span> https://www.ina dot iq/205225--.html;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://shafaq dot com/ar/سیاسة/الوكالة-الدولية-للطاقة-الذرية-توجه-دعوة-رسمية-للعراق-للمشاركة-بقمتها-المقبلة</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[44]</span> https://www.ina dot iq/205225--.html;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">DNGTS https://shafaq dot com/ar/سیاسة/الوكالة-الدولية-للطاقة-الذرية-توجه-دعوة-رسمية-للعراق-للمشاركة-بقمتها-المقبلة</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[45]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-help-iraq-develop-peaceful-nuclear-programme-agency-head-says-2024-03-18/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[46]</span> https://www.ina dot iq/205225--.html;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">DNGTS https://shafaq dot com/ar/سیاسة/الوكالة-الدولية-للطاقة-الذرية-توجه-دعوة-رسمية-للعراق-للمشاركة-بقمتها-المقبلة</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</span> https://www.aljazeera dot com/economy/2021/6/8/iraq-plans-nuclear-power-plants-to-tackle-electricity-shortage</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[48]</span> https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/IRQ</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[49]</span> https://deirezzor24 dot net/الميليشيات-المدعومة-من-إيران-تعيد-تأه</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[50]</span> https://deirezzor24 dot net/en/the-irgc-militia-launches-a-new-military-session-in-deir-ezzor/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[51]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://deirezzor24</span> dot net/الميليشيات-المدعومة-من-إيران-تعيد-تأه</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[52]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=10053</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[53]</span> https://www dot masirahtv dot net/post/249677/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B8%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9-10-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[54]</span> https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/niger-once-key-u-s-counterterrorism-ally-ends-military-ties-7db66dbe</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[55]</span> https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[56]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/us-warned-niger-about-ties-russia-iran-before-junta-revoked-accord-pentagon-2024-03-18/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[57]</span> https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-update-special-edition-blinken-visits-west-africa-as-former-sahelian-counterterrorism-partners-continue-to-slide-into-russia-and-irans-orbit#_edn09f51e9608d681f2d1f79819687c86c743</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[58]</span> https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-update-special-edition-blinken-visits-west-africa-as-former-sahelian-counterterrorism-partners-continue-to-slide-into-russia-and-irans-orbit; https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/A-guide-Uranium-in-Niger</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-63103103556933644202024-03-17T19:41:00.000-04:002024-03-17T19:41:02.014-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2024<p style="text-align: justify;"> <strong>Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, and George Barros</strong></p><p align="center" data-mce-style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong style="text-align: left;">March 17, 2024, 5pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div> <p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a
computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this
data-heavy tool.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain
map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will
update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
The data cut-off for this product was 1:00 pm ET on March 17. ISW will
cover subsequent reports in the March 18 Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>French President Emmanuel
Macron underlined the necessity for European countries to continue
supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in order to ensure
Ukrainian and European security. </strong>Macron stated in a March 16 interview with Ukrainian TV channels <em>1+1</em> and <em>My-Ukraina</em> that there will be “no peace in Europe if Ukraine is forced to capitulate.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
Macron called on European countries to speed up military assistance
deliveries to Ukraine and stated that a “lasting peace” will restore the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and guarantee the
security of Ukraine and all of Europe.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span>
Macron also implied that negotiations require both Russia and Ukraine
to engage in negotiations, highlighting Russia’s unwillingness to engage
in legitimate and good-faith negotiations with Ukraine as an equal
party.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span>
Macron’s emphasis that only Russia and Ukraine can engage in legitimate
negotiations directly challenges an ongoing Russian information
operation aimed at framing the West as the only meaningful negotiating
party in order to convince the West to accept the Kremlin’s premise that
Ukraine has no independent agency and to gain concessions from the West
that undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Macron
also stated in a March 16 interview with French outlet <em>Le Parisien</em>
that "perhaps at some point” it would be necessary for French troops to
operate on the ground in Ukraine to counter Russian forces but that he
“does not want it.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
Russian sources hyper-focused on Macron’s response to a question in
which he affirmed that he would ask Russia for a ceasefire in Ukraine
during the summer 2024 Olympics in Paris.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> Russian official sources largely rejected Macron’s offer of a ceasefire, citing France’s continued support for Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
Macron stated that France would maintain a message of peace in
accordance with the spirit of the Olympic movement but that a message of
peace and tolerance does not preclude Ukraine’s need to fully restore
its sovereignty and territorial integrity.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and
Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike
against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March
16 to 17. </strong>Sources in the SBU told Ukrainian outlet <em>Suspilne </em>that
the Ukrainian SBU, SOF, and Unmanned Systems Forces struck the crude
oil atmospheric distillation columns of the Slavyansk oil refinery in
Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Krasnodar Krai, resulting in a large fire.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span>
Krasnodar Krai Operational Headquarters claimed that several drones
attempted to strike the Slavyansk oil refinery and that Russian forces
neutralized them, though falling drones caused a fire.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> A Russian milblogger claimed that two of 17 drones that targeted the Slavyansk oil refinery struck the facility.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span><em> Suspilne </em>reported that SBU drones have recently successfully struck 12 oil refineries in Russia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span>
A Russian milblogger claimed that the Ukrainian strike on the Slavyansk
oil refinery is the ninth Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil refinery in
the past week.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span>
Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian strikes on oil
refineries are more serious than strikes on fuel depots because
international sanctions against Russia complicate Russia’s ability to
repair technologically complex oil refinery facilities.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Unspecified
actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the
pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an
assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova
from within. </strong>Transnistrian outlets claimed on March 17 that a
single drone struck a helicopter on the territory of an unspecified
military unit in Transnistria, posted video footage of the moment of the
drone strike, and alleged that the drone flew from the direction of
Odesa Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span>
Neither Transnistrian nor Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian
forces of conducting the strike as of this writing but may do so in the
future. The former Transnistrian Supreme Council Chairman, Alexander
Shcherba, claimed that the strike had “Ukrainian fingerprints” and that
the “main beneficiary” was Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span>
The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration stated that the struck helicopter
had not flown for years, and the strike was deliberately meant to spread
fear and panic in Transnistria, implying it was part of an adversarial
information operation targeting Moldova, though the Bureau of
Reintegration did not explicitly accuse Transnistrian or pro-Russian
forces of conducting the strike.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> Moldovan authorities stated that they were in contact with the Ukrainian government.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span>
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson
Andriy Yusov described the situation as a Russian provocation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation accused Russia of conducting the strike to manipulate the information space.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
ISW cannot independently verify the details of the singular drone
strike in Transnistria or identify the responsible actors, but it is
unlikely that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike given the limited
means used in the strike and the insignificant target. Ukrainian
officials have also recently stated that Transnistria does not pose a
military threat to Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> Transnistrian authorities recently asked Russia for unspecified “<em>zashchita” </em>(defense/protection)
against Moldova, and Russia or Russian-linked actors would likely be
the beneficiaries of this provocation in order to further the Kremlin’s
ongoing efforts to set information conditions to justify a variety of
Russian hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova, about which
ISW has extensively warned.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>All-Russian
pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces reportedly seized a Russian
administrative building in the Belgorod Oblast border area amid
continued cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast. </strong>The
all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and Siberian
Battalion claimed on March 17 that their forces entered the Gorkovsky
border settlement in Belgorod Oblast and seized the settlement’s
administration building.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> Russian milbloggers either denied this claim or claimed that the settlement was already deserted several years ago.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span>
Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD),
amplified footage claiming to show Russian air defenses downing a
Ukrainian helicopter near Lukashivka, Sumy Oblast that was reportedly en
route to Belgorod Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span>
Russian milbloggers initially claimed that Russian forces downed a
Western-produced helicopter, but the Russian MoD later claimed that the
helicopter was a Soviet-era Mi-8.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span>
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) denied the
Russian claims that Russian forces downed a Ukrainian helicopter and
characterized the claims as part of a Kremlin information operation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> Russian milbloggers claimed that limited ground activity continued near Kozinka and Spodariushino, Belgorod Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled that it intends to protect
the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have
replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort. </strong>The Russian
MoD reported on March 17 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
visited the BSF command post in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea where he
received reports about Ukrainian operations and the BSF’s performance.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span>
Shoigu emphasized that the BSF must conduct daily training exercises to
repel aerial and unmanned maritime vehicle strikes so that all Russian
crews are ready to defend against such strikes.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span>
Shoigu ordered that the BSF install additional weapons, including
large-caliber systems and machine guns, on unspecified BSF assets to
augment Russian defenses.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span>
Shoigu also received a report from Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk,
whom some Russian sources recently claimed replaced Admiral Viktor
Sokolov as BSF commander.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span>
ISW remains unable to confirm this claim, however. A Ukrainian strike
campaign has forced the BSF to redeploy the majority of its naval assets
away from its main base in Sevastopol to smaller and less capable bases
in Novorossiysk and elsewhere, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces Center
for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported that Ukrainian strikes
have disabled roughly 33 percent of the BSF’s warships as of early
February 2024, including 24 ships and one submarine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span>
Shoigu’s posturing to protect the BSF sets conditions for Shoigu to
either take credit should the BSF become more effective at protecting
itself against Ukrainian strikes or blame other commanders should the
BSF fail in this effort.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>French
President Emmanuel Macron underlined the necessity for European
countries to continue supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in
order to ensure Ukrainian and European security.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and
Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike
against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March
16 to 17.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Unspecified actors launched a drone
at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic
in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid
operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>All-Russian
pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces reportedly seized a Russian
administrative building in the Belgorod Oblast border area amid
continued cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled that it intends to protect
the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have
replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City. </strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
authorities continue to militarize children in occupied Ukraine as part
of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for
Russia’s future force generation needs.</strong></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch17%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch17%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch17%2C2024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch17%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><em>We
do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities
are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the
military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue
to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on
the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on
combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations
of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes
against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian
Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast
and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern
Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Significant Activity in Belarus</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push
westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian
military officials recently reported that Ukrainian forces repelled
three Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups on the
Ukrainian-Russian international border near Stara Huta and Brusky, Sumy
Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span>
It is unclear whether the Ukrainian military officials were referring
to previously reported Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups in the
same area on March 16 or additional Russian operations on March 17 that
occurred since the initial reports.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
fighting continued on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 17,
but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional
fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; west of
Kreminna; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span>
Elements of the Chechen Akhmat “Aida” detachment continue to operate
near Bilohorivka, and elements of the 346th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian
General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating near
Lysychansk.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="812" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces reportedly unsuccessfully attacked in the Siversk direction
(northeast of Bakhmut) on March 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported
that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Rozdolivka
(southwest of Siversk).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span>
Elements of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk
People's. Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) reportedly continue to operate
near Spirne (southeast of Siversk).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued around Bakhmut on March 17 but did not result in
changes to the frontline. Positional battles continued northwest of
Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and east of
Chasiv Yar; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Shumy, and Pivdenne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span>
Elements of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division (3rd AC)
reportedly continue to operate in the Bakhmut direction; and elements of
the Russian 78th “Sever-Akhmat” Special Purpose Motorized Regiment are
reportedly operating near Klishchiivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces recently marginally advanced northwest and west of Avdiivka amid
continued positional fighting in the area on March 17. Geolocated
footage published on March 16 indicates that Russian forces recently
advanced northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka), and a Russian
milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced along Tsentralna Street
in the settlement.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span>
Geolocated footage published on March 16 also indicates that Russian
forces recently advanced to the central part of Orlivka (northwest of
Avdiivka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span>
Positional battles continued northeast of Avdiivka near Oleksandropil;
northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and Orlivka; west
of Avdiivka near Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and
Nevelske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="729" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
and Ukrainian forces recently advanced on the Donetsk City frontline
amid continued positional fighting on March 17. Geolocated footage
published on March 14 shows elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle
Brigade (68th AC, Pacific Fleet) striking Ukrainian positions south of
Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City), indicating that Ukrainian
forces have advanced in the area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span>
Geolocated footage published on March 17 indicates that Russian forces
marginally advanced northeast of Marinka (immediately west of Donetsk
City).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span>
Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka
and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and
Pobieda.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span>
Elements of the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Combined Arms Army
[CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near
Novomykhailivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="769" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on
March 15. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are advancing
near Malynivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span>
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces
repelled Ukrainian attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Vodyane
and Volodymyrivka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span>
Elements of the Russian 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) are
reportedly operating near Staromayorske (south of Velyka Novosilka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="700" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces reportedly seized Myrne (northeast of Robotyne) amid continued
positional fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 17. Russian
sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that
elements of the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military
District [EMD]) seized Myrne after pushing Ukrainian forces from the
settlement.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span> Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span> Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> Elements of the Russian BARS-3 ”Rodina” Battalion (Combat Army Reserve) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="622" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="616" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, particularly
near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge area, on March 17.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span>
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian Spetsnaz forces conducted a
raid in an unspecified area of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast at an
unspecified time earlier this week.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces launched several drone and missile strikes on Ukraine on March
16 and March 17. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces
struck Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts with five S-300 missiles and struck
Chernihiv Oblast with two Kh-59 cruise missiles on the night of March 16
to 17.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span>
Ukrainian officials reported on March 17 that Russian forces struck an
infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv City with two ballistic missiles,
likely Iskander-Ms.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span>
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 16
Shahed-136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, overnight on
March 16 to 17 and that Ukrainian forces shot down 14 Shaheds over Odesa
Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span>
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that some Shahed drones
damaged agricultural enterprises in Odesa Oblast overnight.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
authorities continue to militarize children in occupied Ukraine as part
of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for
Russia’s future force generation needs. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast
Military Administration Head Artem Lysohor stated on March 17 that
Russian authorities have approved the creation of the Luhansk Cadet
Corps under the Russian Investigative Committee (Russia’s rough
equivalent to the American Federal Bureau of Investigation), possibly
before 2025.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span>
Lysohor stated that Luhansk Cadet Corps will teach Ukrainian children
about pro-Russian concepts including their “debt” to the Russian
“Motherland.” The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on March 17 that
Russian authorities have spent a decade developing a plan to introduce a
Russian federal military training system for civilians in occupied
Crimea and plan to introduce the same military training system in
occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span>
The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated the Kremlin ordered the
establishment of centers for military-patriotic education and military
training for civilians in each of Russia’s municipal entities and in
occupied Ukraine and that occupation authorities are focusing on the
expansion of the Young Cadets National Movement (Yunarmiya) as part of
these efforts. The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that occupation
authorities plan to build an “Avangard” military-patriotic education
center in occupied Sevastopol in 2025-2027 that will train about 5,000
Ukrainian children annually. The “Avangard” centers reportedly cooperate
with the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army,
Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF), and the Russian Black Sea Fleet
(BSF) will reportedly use the new “Avangard” center in Sevastopol to
recruit personnel from occupied Crimea. Yevpatoria occupation
administration head Elena Demidova announced in October 2023 that
Russian occupation officials opened an “Avangard” center in the
“Gagarin” children’s health camp in occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, which
reportedly accepted its first group of 100 ninth-through-eleventh grade
students in early October 2023, to teach Ukrainian children basic
Russian military training and organize “patriotic leisure activities.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span> Russian opposition outlet <em>Verstka</em>
reported in August 2023 that the Russian Investigative Committee and
its head, Alexander Bastrykin, were using toys, clothes, and school
supplies to coerce Ukrainian children in orphanages in Russia to join
the Russian cadet corps and that Bastrykin ordered some Russian cadets
corps to prepare to receive Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine as
early as February 25, 2022.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
authorities continue to use financial incentives to encourage Russian
civilians to voluntarily sign contracts for military service with the
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Russian outlet <em>Kommersant </em>reported
on March 11 that Tatarstan regional authorities temporarily increased
the signing bonus for signing a contract to join the Russian military
from 305,000 rubles (about $3,300) to 400,000 rubles (about $4,300)
until March 25.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span>
A Russian insider source claimed on March 17 that taxi drivers are
reporting an increased number of advertisements on taxi driver forums
offering monetary bonuses for joining the Russian military.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div> <strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) </strong></div></strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Nothing significant to report.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong>
(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become
more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international
partners)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note: ISW will be publishing
its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis
in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track
developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will
refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive
Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed
areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural,
economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas
twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will
continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will
refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian
Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary. </strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
March 2024 Russian presidential election concluded on March 17, and
Russian President Vladimir Putin is the likely victor as expected.
Russian state newswire <em>TASS </em>reported that exit polls suggest
that 87 percent of voters voted for Putin, which is congruent with ISW’s
previous assessments that the Kremlin aims to portray public support
for Putin at about 80 percent.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span>
Russian authorities continue efforts to portray the Russian
presidential election as a popular and legitimate election, including by
claiming that voter turnout exceeded 90 percent in some federal
subjects and that the overall voter turnout was 70 percent as of 15:45
Moscow time on March 17, exceeding the alleged turnout of 67.54 percent
of the last 2018 Russian presidential election.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span>
Senior Russian officials continued to accuse the West of interfering in
the election and claimed that attempts to divide Russia only united
Russians around the election and Putin, even as demonstrations against
the choreographed election continued in Russia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span>
Russians across the country and the global Russian diaspora organized
large-scale “Noon against Putin” protests, lining up en masse at noon on
March 17 to vote against Putin so that a surge of ballots against Putin
simultaneously would complicate the Kremlin’s efforts to falsify votes
in Putin’s favor.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span> Many Russian opposition outlets posted imagery showing anti-war slogans written on election ballots.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span>
Russian authorities continued to crack down on certain demonstrators
who damaged ballot boxes or polling centers, reportedly detaining at
least 75 Russians on March 17 alone.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span>
A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian military
veterans and athletes attempted to argue with and disperse demonstrators
against the choreographed election.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong>
(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and
further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner
Group activity in Belarus)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Nothing significant to report.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only
publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian,
Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as
commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as
the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided
in the endnotes of each update.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_88.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_88.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_88.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_88.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr align="left" size="1" style="text-align: justify;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> https://suspilne dot media/707418-makron-ne-bude-miru-v-evropi-akso-ukraina-bude-zmusena-kapituluvati/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/707418-makron-ne-bude-miru-v-evropi-akso-ukraina-bude-zmusena-kapituluvati/ ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.kyivpost</span> dot com/uk/post/29641</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/707418-makron-ne-bude-miru-v-evropi-akso-ukraina-bude-zmusena-kapituluvati/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
https://www.leparisien dot
fr/politique/emmanuel-macron-sur-lukraine-peut-etre-qua-un-moment-donne-il-faudra-avoir-des-operations-sur-le-terrain-16-03-2024-ZJUB5CCX2FCMFCJE7552HIUPWY.php
; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://archive</span> dot is/piUsm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> https://suspilne dot media/707430-francia-zaproponue-pripinenna-vognu-v-ukraini-na-cas-olimpijskih-igor-makron/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
https://t.me/tass_agency/237092; https://t.me/tass_agency/237199 ;
https://t.me/sashakots/45593 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/10018 ;
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54841; https://t.me/tass_agency/237251</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/707430-francia-zaproponue-pripinenna-vognu-v-ukraini-na-cas-olimpijskih-igor-makron/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/707580-sbu-atakuvala-dronami-slovanskij-npz-u-krasnodarskomu-krai-rosii-dzerela/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> https://t.me/tass_agency/237108 ; https://t.me/opershtab23/7996</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> https://t.me/rybar/58236</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> ttps://suspilne dot media/707580-sbu-atakuvala-dronami-slovanskij-npz-u-krasnodarskomu-krai-rosii-dzerela/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54848</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> https://t.me/milinfolive/118400</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tv_pmr/53981</span>;; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/novostipmrcom/53948</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/novostipmrcom/53953</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tv_pmr/53986</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tv_pmr/53985</span> ; https://t.me/novostipmrcom/53952</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://rtvi</span> dot com/news/v-pridnestrove-dron-podorval-staryj-mi-8-moldova-ne-priznala-eto-napadeniem/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://gov</span> dot md/ro/content/comentariul-biroului-politici-de-reintegrare</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://gov</span> dot md/ro/content/comentariul-biroului-politici-de-reintegrare</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87758</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.rbc</span> dot ua/rus/news/sumah-tizhden-vidpravlyayut-ditsadki-distantsiyku-1710692565.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> https://t.me/CenterCounteringDisinformation/9636</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030124</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1161</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/SiberianBattalion/257</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> https://t.me/warfakes/21086 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/warfakebelgorod/2876</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rosgvardia67/34281</span> ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63925 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rusich_army/13682 ;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36717</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vrogov/14779</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/basurin_e/9803</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/epoddubny/19393;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18792</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37131</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37133</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63884</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/9015</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rsotmdivision/14559</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/118441</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15019</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54849</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58238</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37135;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37136</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63887</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15021</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/epoddubny/19393;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18792</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37131</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37133</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63884</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/9015</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rsotmdivision/14559</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/118441</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15019</span> ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54849 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/epoddubny/19396</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://gur.gov</span> dot ua/content/ekipazhi-helikopteriv-black-hawk-hur-mo-ukrainy-prodovzhuiut-boiovu-robotu.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15015</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15016</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rusich_army/13682</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rusich_army/13673</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rsotmdivision/14547</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/118453</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63851</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58247</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37155</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18785</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37071</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37065</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/control_sigma/28356</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37089</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> https://t.me/mod_russia/36707</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> https://t.me/mod_russia/36707</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> https://t.me/mod_russia/36707</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.gazeta</span>
dot ru/army/news/2024/03/17/22566703.shtml;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2024</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-14-2024</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/special-edition-campaign-assessment-ukraine%E2%80%99s-strike-campaign-against-crimea</span>; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukrainian-strikes-have-changed-russian-naval-operations-black-sea</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/707566-na-sumsini-trom-rosijskim-drg-zavadili-probratisa-vglib-ukraini-dpsu/; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DPSUkr/18924</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/DPSUkraine/posts/pfbid02sp2hJ2KJoLw7LqP6btifTuv48jF8ojpMB9mmEtEa2umVnw2SPqwL8mrxkFxWwigTl</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36711</span>; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl</span>; https://t.me/rybar/58234 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/37089</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4594</span> (Bilohorivka); https://t.me/rybar/58230 (Lysychansk)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13287</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58228;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37089;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18785;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36711</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/fronttyagach82/512</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37100</span> (Bakhmut direction); <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4595</span> (Klishchiivka)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> https://x.com/moklasen/status/1769109313786704378?s=20; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1769109320581407131?s=20</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1769109317112811995?s=20</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/brigade_53/376</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4775</span>; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8367</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/lumieregroup/119</span>; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12432</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36711;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/Fab_1500/55</span>; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4779</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> https://x.com/Ukraine_Twi/status/1769408049700126789?s=20; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/klinger66/status/1769422960245236091?s=20</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1769405963990192489?s=20;</span> https://x.com/moklasen/status/1769416693237928317?s=20</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58228;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/9004</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/9004</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8999</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36711</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36709</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7534</span> (Staromayorske)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36711</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58237</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/vrogov/14776</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7533</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37089</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18785</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18785</span> ; https://t.me/batalyon15/3976</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37059</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NgUGgSt9uQ7NysgUP2pLBB4KcodqizHx9Km7vW6ZNttwUCLf67gxRY2vLqFkoPVl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Mrw9qd9Bzc4joJdtUEXuCJgVvdzVqGuiSt3DEYthgpPbciYzxYs1JhtRUwJF7Kdhl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid036Rjk5u3JsfAxjgxY2ELbdLGYjhEjG97t43aXvLUa9vzxsSqznszNvjkAwPTxgMFZl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37089</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/37089</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span> https://t.me/kpszsu/11940</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span>
https://armyinform dot
com.ua/2024/03/17/rosiya-atakuvala-mykolayiv-balistykoyu-5-poranenyh-poshkodzheno-pryvatni-budynky/
; https://armyinform dot
com.ua/2024/03/17/udaru-po-mykolayevu-zavdano-balistychnoyu-raketoyu-iskander-m-iz-terytoriyi-krymu/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span> https://t.me/kpszsu/11940</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span> https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7253 </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span> https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17655</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://sprotyv</span> dot mod.gov.ua/kreml-rozbudovuye-merezhu-zakladiv-militaryzatsiyi-molodi/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-4-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Aug%207%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF_0.pdf</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.kommersant</span> dot ru/doc/6561656</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span> https://t.me/vchkogpu/46653</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237351</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2024</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024</span>; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Oct%209%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/idelrealii/34347</span>; https://t.me/bbcrussian/62261</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237285</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237298</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237299</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237300</span>; https://t.me/tass_agency/237300; https://t.me/tass_agency/237321 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/237322; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237323</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/MID_Russia/36539;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/MID_Russia/36611</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span>
https://meduza dot
io/feature/2024/03/17/v-berline-proshla-odna-iz-samyh-massovyh-aktsiy-protiv-putina-v-posledniy-den-golosovaniya-na-vyborah-fotografii
; https://t.me/idelrealii/34383 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/severrealii/23774</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.severreal.org/a/gossmi-rasskazali-ob-ogromnyh-ocheredyah-na-vyborah-za-granitsey-ne-ukazav-v-chem-ih-prichina/32865145.html</span>; https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/7432 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sotaproject/77346</span>;
https://meduza dot
io/news/2024/03/17/ovd-info-bolee-50-rossiyan-zaderzhany-v-posledniy-den-golosovaniya-na-vyborah-prezidenta;
https://ovd dot
info/2024/03/17/vybory-prezidenta-rossii-spisok-zaderzhannykh-17032024-g
; https://t.me/idelrealii/34370 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/62264; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/svobodnieslova/4390</span>;
https://meduza dot
io/news/2024/03/17/v-armenii-i-kazahstane-ocheredi-k-uchastkam-dlya-golosovaniya-na-vyborah-prezidenta-rf-rastyanulis-na-sotni-metrov;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span>
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17980 ;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17982 ;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17983 ;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17984 ;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17987;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17988 ;
https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17989 ; https://t.me/astrapress/51211 ;
https://t.me/astrapress/51278 ; https://t.me/astrapress/51299;
https://t.me/sotaproject/77214; </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span>
https://meduza dot
io/news/2024/03/17/ovd-info-bolee-50-rossiyan-zaderzhany-v-posledniy-den-golosovaniya-na-vyborah-prezidenta;
https://ovd dot
info/2024/03/17/vybory-prezidenta-rossii-spisok-zaderzhannykh-17032024-g
; https://t.me/idelrealii/34370 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/62264;
https://t.me/svobodnieslova/4390</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span> https://t.me/sashakots/45595</p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-7414076561246324172024-03-17T19:39:00.005-04:002024-03-17T19:39:47.861-04:00Iran Update, March 17, 2024<p style="text-align: justify;"> <strong>Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, and Brian Carter</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong style="text-align: left;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the
region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true"><em>interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em>.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Note:
CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.
The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of
Resistance. </em><em>We do not report in detail on war crimes because
these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We
utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe
them in these reports.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap"><em>here</em></a><em>
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html" href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html"><em>here</em></a><em> to subscribe to the Iran Update.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 16 and 17, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 18, 2024</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 17.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>West Bank: </strong>The
IDF arrested seven wanted individuals across the West Bank on March 17.
The IDF also confiscated materials needed for manufacturing improvised
explosive devices during an operation in Hebron.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Northern Israel: </strong>Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven
attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last
data cutoff on March 16.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The Red Sea:</strong> The Houthis likely fired at least one unspecified missile targeting the Marshall Islands-flagged LPG tanker <em>MADO</em> in the Gulf of Aden on March 16. This incident marks the second time the Houthis have targeted this vessel in two days.</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Syria: </strong>The
Israeli Air Force likely conducted air strikes targeting a Hezbollah
ammunitions depot and other Syrian army positions along the
Damascus-Homs highway on March 17.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2017%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2017%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2017%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2017%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Gaza Strip</strong></div></strong><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Erode
the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch
and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.|</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 162nd Division and combat engineers
demolished a 2.5-kilometer-long tunnel in the northern Gaza Strip during
the week of March 10.[1] </strong>The IDF called the tunnel the
“longest underground route” in the northern Gaza Strip that it has
discovered during the war. The tunnel network allowed Hamas units to
move between the northern and southern Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 17.[3]</strong> The Nahal Brigade killed 18 Palestinian fighters operating near IDF positions using airstrikes, tank fire, and sniper fire.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> The IDF Nahal Brigade has been operating in the area between the northern and central Gaza Strip for two weeks.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> The IDF has been constructing a highway in this area, which the IDF has dubbed the “Netzarim corridor.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
This corridor divides the northern and southern parts of the Gaza
Strip. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP),
which is a leftist Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war,
mortared Israeli forces at the ”Netzarim site” near the Israeli-built
road.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> Palestinian militias also claimed rocket and small arms attacks near the corridor.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span>
Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is
the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the
war, mortared Israeli positions in the eastern part of the Gaza Strip‘s
Central governorate in three separate attacks.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 17. </strong>The IDF said that the IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) is still conducting clearing operations in Hamad.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> The IDF 7th Brigade (36th Division) fought Palestinian fighters and seized weapons in Khan Younis.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also engaged Israeli forces operating in Khan Younis.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) mortared Israeli
forces at Nahal Oz, which is close to the Israel-Gaza Strip border, on
March 17.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> The PFLP is a secular, leftist Palestinian group fighting alongside Hamas in the war.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>West Bank</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli
forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least two locations
in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 16.[14]</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The IDF arrested seven wanted individuals across the West Bank on March 17.[15] </strong>The IDF confiscated materials needed for manufacturing improvised explosive devices during an operation in Hebron.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven
attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last
data cutoff on March 16.[16] </strong>The IDF reported that it shot down a “suspicious aerial target” over Acre on March 16.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> The IDF often uses this language to refer to suspected drones</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iran and Axis of Resistance</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Demonstrate
the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to
escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>US
Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that US forces destroyed five naval
attack drones and one aerial drone in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen
on March 16.[18]</strong> CENTCOM assessed that these weapons presented an “imminent threat” to commercial vessels and US Navy ships in the Red Sea.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
Houthi-controlled and pro-Axis of Resistance media claimed that the
United States and the United Kingdom conducted airstrikes in al
Durayhimi, Hudaydah governorate and in al Taiziyah, Taiz governorate, on
March 16.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>CENTCOM also reported that the Houthis launched two drones toward the Red Sea on March 16.[21]</strong> CENTCOM intercepted one of the drones. CENTCOM assessed that the second drone likely crashed into the Red Sea.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> Neither drone caused any casualties aboard or damage to nearby vessels.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The Houthis likely fired at least one unspecified missile targeting the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker <em>MADO</em> in the Gulf of Aden on March 16.[23] </strong>UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an unspecified actor fired at least one missile targeting the <em>MADO</em>.
This incident marks the second time the Houthis have targeted this
vessel in two days. The UKMTO previously reported that an explosion
occurred near the <em>MADO</em> in the Red Sea approximately 65 nautical miles west of Hudaydah on March 15.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2017%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2017%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Israeli Air Force likely conducted air strikes targeting a Hezbollah
ammunitions depot and other Syrian army positions along the
Damascus-Homs highway on March 17.[25] </strong>The Syrian Defense
Ministry said that the strikes targeted several sites in southern Syria,
damaging property and injuring one Syrian soldier.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> Israeli Army Radio reported that the strikes targeted Syrian army positions and Hezbollah ammunition depots.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> A Syria-focused analyst noted that the area has a large Hezbollah presence.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span>
CTP-ISW has previously reported that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) may have previously used this highway as a weapons
transportation route.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> The airstrikes caused significant secondary explosions, potentially confirming that the strike targeted an ammunitions</div></strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_89.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_89.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_89.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_89.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> www dot idf.il/186581</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> www dot idf.il/186581</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250238487785741 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250279344513371</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250238487785741 <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250279344513371</span> ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1769260370114347198</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> https://www.idf dot il/186268</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> https://www.idf dot il/186268 ; https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1759333045524402287?s=46&t=Pd9EQ5ncm-TX8rDDEiGN2Q</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4173</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17568</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/nedalps/4039</span> ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4172 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1766</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4372</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6029</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17567</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/nedalps/4042</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> www dot idf.il/186393;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250283865972830</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250286424543300</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6030</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13909</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/382661</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6028</span> ; https://t.me/QudsN/382742</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769295543254077624</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2693</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769136697416044952 ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769321600682188801 ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2689 ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2695 ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2697 ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2699</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769136697416044952</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> https://t.me/C_Military1/47321;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/65051;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://twitter.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1769098597134475551</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1769368388327833681</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1769047871909666883</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769133685029109995</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0XSbZ228ey8fdp2rvwa9w73WX8bnrYugBRKuVABjmd3UryhHsTvwnc9mKCtu4G9qQl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1769333738234646852</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/damascusv011/21385</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0XSbZ228ey8fdp2rvwa9w73WX8bnrYugBRKuVABjmd3UryhHsTvwnc9mKCtu4G9qQl</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769133685029109995</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1769307215125483933</span> ; https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1769313128989233324</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-24-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-1-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-13-2023</span></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-10560421980009326502024-03-16T19:47:00.001-04:002024-03-16T19:47:01.579-04:00 Iran Update, March 16, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to subscribe to the Iran Update.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 16 and 17, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 18, 2024</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip:</strong> The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Gaza Strip:</strong> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved plans for a military operation into Rafah.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanon: </strong>Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least six locations in the West Bank.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 16.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade has been operating at the intersection of the northern and central Gaza Strip for two weeks.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> Israeli forces are launching raids from the ”Netzarim corridor” targeting Palestinian fighters. The “Netzarim corridor“ is where the IDF has been constructing a highway to support operations in the Gaza Strip.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> Israeli forces have destroyed Hamas military infrastructure in the area including weapons depots and rocket launchers.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF 215th Artillery Brigade (162nd Division) received intelligence about Palestinian fighters hiding inside a Hamas-affiliated building and directed an airstrike that targeted the fighters.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span> The IDF also killed a Hamas commander of a sniper unit.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 16. </strong>Israeli infantrymen coordinated with the IDF Air Force to destroy a Hamas weapons depot.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> Commercially available satellite imagery captured on March 15 shows flattened terrain north of Hamad in northern Khan Younis, indicating that Israeli tanks or bulldozers operated in the area. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, detonated an unspecified explosive device targeting Israeli forces in Hamad.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fatah criticized Hamas for opposing PA President Mahmoud Abbas’ appointment of a new prime minister.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Hamas stated on March 15 that Abbas’ decision is an “individual decision” that is “devoid of substance,” noting that Palestinians have lost confidence in the PA’s policies.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span> Fatah officials argued that Hamas is responsible for the war in the Gaza Strip and unilaterally conducted the October 7 attack.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved plans on March 15 for a military operation into Rafah.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The Prime Minister’s Office did not provide additional details. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that the Biden administration has not seen the plan and the Biden administration does not know how Israel plans to protect civilians in Rafah.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span> The IDF said on March 13 that it plans to move civilians from Rafah to “humanitarian enclaves” in the central Gaza Strip before any Israeli offensive into Rafah.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</span> There are approximately 1.4 million displaced Palestinian civilians currently in Rafah.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli security officials told the Israeli security cabinet that the Israeli airstrike in the central Gaza Strip on March 11 likely killed Hamas military wing deputy commander Marwan Issa.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Issa’s death is an “is an important and significant achievement for Israel.”<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</span> Israeli journalists described Issa as the third most senior official in Hamas in the Gaza Strip.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> Issa worked closely with Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar and Hamas military wing commander Mohammad Deif to plan the October 7 attack.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters have conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 15. </strong>PIJ fired rockets targeting Sderot in southern Israel on March 15.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</span> Israeli air defenses intercepted one of the rockets and a second rocket landed outside the city.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</span> The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired rockets into southern Israel on March 16.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</span> Israeli Army Radio reported red alerts in Nahal Oz on March 16.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least six locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 15.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>An imam from a local mosque fired small arms at an Israeli settlement in Hebron on March 16.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</span> Israeli forces later engaged and killed him.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 15.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_105.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895052749722084" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895052749722084</a></span>; <a href="https://www.idf/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idf</a> dot il/186268</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> <a href="https://www.idf/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idf</a> dot il/186268</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> <a href="https://www.idf/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idf</a> dot il/186268; <a href="https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1759333045524402287?s=46&t=Pd9EQ5ncm-TX8rDDEiGN2Q" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1759333045524402287?s=46&t=Pd9E...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895050346373287" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895050346373287</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895050346373287" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895050346373287</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895045296406929" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768895045296406929</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span> <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6027" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6027</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</span> <a href="https://wafa/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://wafa</a> dot ps/Pages/Details/91951</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span> <a href="https://t.me/hamasps/19751" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19751</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span> <a href="https://wafa/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://wafa</a> dot ps/Pages/Details/91951; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1768761756816384295" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1768761756816384295</a></span>; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-lashes-out-abbass-unilateral-designation-new-pm-2024-03-15/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-lashes-out-abbass-unilat...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/16/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/16/israel-hamas-war-news-ga...</a></span>; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aid-ship-reaches-gaza-coast-israel-rejects-hamas-truce-offer-2024-03-15/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aid-ship-reaches-gaza-coast-is...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/16/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/16/israel-hamas-war-news-ga...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</span> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-14-24/h_020c4f14788630e2d5364ba35e9339a9" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-1...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</span> <a href="https://www.kan/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kan</a> dot org.il/content/kan-news/defense/723649/; <a href="https://www.timesofisrael/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.timesofisrael</a> dot com/liveblog_entry/ministers-said-briefed-that-all-signs-indicate-top-hamas-leader-issa-was-killed-in-idf-strike/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</span> <a href="https://www.kan/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kan</a> dot org.il/content/kan-news/defense/723649/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/ItayBlumental/status/1767094588274057333" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/ItayBlumental/status/1767094588274057333</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span> <a href="https://www.timesofisrael/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.timesofisrael</a> dot com/israel-hamas-both-said-probing-fate-of-terror-groups-no-3-targeted-in-airstrike/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</span> <a href="https://t.me/sarayaps/17565" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17565</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1768717173315211525" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1768717173315211525</a></span>; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768735967911834044" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768735967911834044</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</span> <a href="https://t.me/darebmojahden/4595" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/darebmojahden/4595</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768895305884303466" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768895305884303466</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</span> <a href="https://t.me/QudsN/382252" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/382252</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/QudsN/382253" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/382253</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/QudsN/382372" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/382372</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/QudsN/382376" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/382376</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6025" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6025</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/sarayajneen/1212" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayajneen/1212</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768984036330869108" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768984036330869108</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/jeninqassamm/5096" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/jeninqassamm/5096</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</span> <a href="https://t.me/jeninqassamm/5096" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/jeninqassamm/5096</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768972179385766043</a> ; <a href="https://www.timesofisrael/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.timesofisrael</a> dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-palestinian-gunman-shot-dead-in-hebron-infiltration-alert-in-settler-neighborhood/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</span> <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2675" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2675</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2679" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2679</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2680" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2680</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768712639532659049" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768712639532659049</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2682" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2682</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2684" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2684</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2687" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2687</a></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-43093778971815484662024-03-16T19:18:00.003-04:002024-03-16T19:18:43.183-04:00 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and George Barros</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 16, 2024, 5:20pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30 pm ET on March 16. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16. </strong>Sources in Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RBK-Ukraine </em>that the SBU struck the Novokuibyshevsky, Kuibyshevsky, and Syzran Rosneft oil refineries in Samara Oblast.[1] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RBK-Ukraine </em>reported that the three refineries process an estimated 25 million tons of oil per year, or 10 percent of Russia’s annual oil refinement output.[2] Geolocated footage published on March 16 shows a fire at the Syzran oil refinery following the drone strikes, and Samara Oblast Governor Dmytro Azarov stated that there was also a fire at the refinery in Novokuibyshevsky.[3] Russian outlet<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Kommersant</em> reported on March 13 that Russian authorities recently strengthened anti-drone protection at the Novokuibyshevsky, Kuibyshevsky, and Syzran oil refineries following previous Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure and reported on March 14 that Russian oil and gas and industrial enterprises are currently the main purchasers of anti-drone systems in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.[4] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kommersant</em> also reported that Rosneft has not restarted operations at the Tuapse oil refinery following the January 25 Ukrainian drone strike against the facility, indicating that the January 25 strike likely significantly damaged the facility.[5] Russian milbloggers deliberated whether the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) or Rosgvardia are to blame for not protecting Russian oil refineries and criticized general Russian bureaucracy for delaying the deployment of anti-drone countermeasures and air defense systems to defend Russian critical infrastructure operators against Ukrainian drone strikes.[6] One Russian milblogger asked why Russia has not been able to implement even an “elementary decision,” such as copying Ukraine’s mobile fire groups, to defend against drone strikes.[7]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers continue limited cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. </strong>The all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) stated on March 16 that it is continuing a “limited military operation” in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts and denied previous Russian claims about the RDK, Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion suffering heavy losses in raids in recent days.[8] The RDK posted footage of alleged Russian prisoners of war (POW) that it recently captured and called on Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov to meet in order to negotiate the exchange of 25 Russian POWs.[9] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled the cross border raids near Popivka, Sumy Oblast, and in the direction of Spodaryushino and Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast.[10]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, to a position within the Russian Presidential Administration. </strong>Russian news outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RBK</em>, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported on March 15 that Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk the deputy head of the Presidential Control Directorate, a department of the Russian Presidential Administration that monitors how Russian federal and regional authorities implement Russian President Vladimir Putin’s orders and directives.[11] Russian outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kommersant</em> reported on March 6 that Kovalchuk left Russian energy company Inter RAO, which he headed for 15 years, and that Russian authorities initially gave Kovalchuk four positions to choose from – head of Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, head of Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft, Deputy Prime Minister for the Fuel and Energy Complex, or governor of St. Petersburg.[12] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bloomberg</em> also reported on March 12 that Russian authorities were considering appointing Kovalchuk as Russian Minister of Energy.[13] The Kovalchuks are also longtime friends of Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko, who has gained increased influence with Putin since the start of the full-scale invasion.[14] Boris’ Kovalchuk’s new position within the Russian presidential administration suggests that both the Kovalchuk family and even Kiriyenko’s wider faction are gaining increased influence within the Kremlin and with Putin himself.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities threatened Russian election disruptors and some Russian citizens’ continued attempts to disrupt voting in the Russian presidential election on March 16. </strong>Russian opposition outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sever Realii</em> reported on March 16 that Russian authorities have opened at least 15 criminal cases across Russia for attempts to disrupt the election and sent at least two people to pre-trial detention centers.[15] Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) Chairperson Ella Pamfilova stated that “simple-minded people” tried to disrupt the voting process by committing arson or damaging ballot boxes at 29 polling stations in 20 Russian federal subjects.[16] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev claimed that Russian citizens who attempt to disrupt the election are “scoundrels” and “traitors” who can face criminal charges for obstructing the exercise of electoral rights.[17] Medvedev threatened that attempts at election disruption are a form of “direct” assistance to Ukraine and the perpetrators could face charges of high treason. Russian State Duma deputy Yana Lantratova told Russian state news outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RIA Novosti</em> on March 16 that Duma deputies are preparing a bill that would increase the sentencing severity for Russians who attempt to disrupt elections and are allegedly acting on instructions from a foreign state opposing Russia during wartime.[18] The bill reportedly imposes stricter sentences of five to eight years in prison for disrupting elections. Lantratova stated that Duma deputies are preparing the bill as quickly as possible so Russian lawmakers have time to adopt it before the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Isolated public protests against the Russian presidential election and Russian President Vladimir Putin are highly unlikely to impact the course or outcome of the choreographed Russian presidential election, but Kremlin officials may be quickly responding to these incidents out of concerns that continued disruptions will tarnish the Kremlin’s effort to portray the election as Russia unifying around Putin.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Group of Seven (G7) countries issued a joint statement on March 15 warning Iran against transferring ballistic missiles or related technology to Russia.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The G7 stated that it is prepared to respond swiftly and in a coordinated manner should Iran provide Russia with ballistic missiles or related technology, including new and “significant measures” against Iran.[20] The G7 statement did not specify what those measures may be, but a senior US official reportedly told journalists that one option under consideration is an effective ban on Iran Air flights to Europe.[21] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reuters </em>reported in late February 2024 that Iranian sources stated that Iran had begun ballistic missile transfers to Russia and that Russia has already received 400 Iranian short-range ballistic missiles.[22] Western media<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>reported on March 15 that the senior US official stated that the United States and its allies have not confirmed that Iran has transferred the missiles to Russia, however.[23] Russia and Iran have been reportedly negotiating transfers of the Iranian short-range ballistic missiles in recent months as Russia continues to increasingly rely on Iran for key components and weapons for its war effort in Ukraine.[24]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers continue limited cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, to a position within the Russian Presidential Administration.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities threatened Russian election disruptors and some Russian citizens’ continued attempts to disrupt voting in the Russian presidential election on March 16.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Group of Seven (G7) countries issued a joint statement on March 15 warning Iran against transferring ballistic missiles or related technology to Russia.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Russian insider source claimed on March 16 that Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov revoked a reported agreement allowing former Wagner Group units to operate independently within Rosgvardia.</strong></li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 16 that Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups that tried to cross the international Russian-Ukrainian border into Sumy Oblast near Stara Huta and Brusky.[25]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 16, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka, west of Kreminna near Terny, and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[26]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20Luhansk%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="812" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20Luhansk%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Bakhmut on March 16, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka; northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and east of Chasiv Yar; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[27] Elements of the Russian 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating near Ivanivske, and elements of the Russian “Vostok” Volunteer Reconnaissance Assault Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating in the direction of Chasiv Yar.[28]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces likely captured Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (southwest of Avdiivka) no later than March 16. Geolocated footage published on March 15 shows that a Russian armored column recently advanced west of Tonenke, and additional geolocated footage published on March 16 shows elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) advancing into and raising a flag in Nevelske.[29] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 12 that Russian forces captured Nevelske.[30] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and between Berdychi and Orlivka (west of Avdiivka).[31] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that an armored Russian group advanced west of Tonenke and reached the outskirts of Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) but did not advance further.[32] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are struggling on the northern flank of Berdychi near Stepove (both northwest of Avdiivka) because Ukrainian forces still control tactical heights and conduct counterattacks in the area, but that it is more difficult for Ukrainian forces to counterattack near Orlivka and Tonenke (both west of Avdiivka). Positional fighting continued west of Avdiivka near Semenivka and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Novokalynove.[33] Elements of the Chechen “Zapad-Akhmat” Battalion are reportedly operating near Orlivka.[34]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka stated on March 15 that Russian forces near Avdiivka are innovating and changing classical Wagner Group-style infantry-led “meat assaults” with assaults using armored vehicles to increase and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian forces.[35] The Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces are attacking with multiple “divisions” – likely referring to elements of divisions that are unlikely to be staffed and equipped at full end-strength – and that Russian forces aim to achieve a ten to one numerical superiority over Ukrainian forces in the Avdiivka direction. The commander stated that Ukrainian forces have slowed the Russian advance but cannot say confidently that the situation is stable. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian counterattacks near Avdiivka have lost momentum and suggested that Ukrainian forces either lack reserves or are withdrawing to lines further back, though ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[36] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces recovered “quickly enough” following the fall of Avdiivka and asserted that Ukrainian forces achieved numerical superiority in the Avdiivka direction, however, ISW is unable to confirm this claim as the tactical situation west of Avdiivka remains dynamic.[37]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="720" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 16, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Volodymyrivka (southeast of Vuhledar on the T0509 Vuhledar-Volnovakha-Mariupol highway).[38] Elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Novomykhailivka.[39]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="788" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka amid continued positional fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 16. Geolocated footage published on March 16 shows that Russian forces recently advanced to a windbreak west of Pryyutne (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[40] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced one kilometer in depth north of Shevchenko (southeast of Velyka Novosilka), though ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[41] Positional fighting continued south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.[42] Elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both of the 36th Combined Arms Army [CAA], EMD) reportedly recently attacked west of Staromayorske and north of Novodonetske, respectively, and elements of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade and of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (both of the 5th CAA, EMD) reportedly supported these assaults.[43]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="700" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne) in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 16.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) advanced up to a kilometer in depth north of Verbove, although ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.[45]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="622" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="616" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on March 16.[46] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also maintain positions near the Antonivsky Bridge, but did not specify whether he was referring to the Antonivsky railway bridge or the Antonivsky roadway bridge.[47]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2016%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone and missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of March 15 to 16. Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Konotop, Sumy Oblast with an unspecified missile on the evening of March 15.[48] Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov reported that Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Kozacha Lopan with an unspecified number of Shahed-136/131 drones and Zolochiv with an Iskander missile on March 16.[49] Ukrainian officials in Donetsk Oblast reported that Russian forces struck Slovyansk with an unspecified missile and Myrnohrad with four S-300 missiles.[50]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Odesa Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Kiper reported on March 16 that the death toll from a Russian Iskander missile strike on Odesa City on March 15 has risen to 20.[51] Russian sources asserted that Russian forces struck a sanatorium in Odesa City on March 15 and killed up to 550 Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) personnel, although ISW has not observed any evidence of these Russian claims.[52]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Russian insider source claimed on March 16 that Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov revoked a reported agreement allowing former Wagner Group units to operate independently within Rosgvardia.[53] The insider source claimed that Zolotov disbanded the former Wagner base in Kazachi Lageri, Rostov Oblast, which Wagner reportedly retained control over when operating as part of the Rosgvardia Volunteer Corps. Rosgvardia authorities reportedly assured former Wagner personnel that there would be “a new gathering” following the Russian presidential election, but that their units would no longer be considered “separate and independent.” Russian sources widely speculated about a reported agreement between the Wagner Council of Commanders and Rosgvardia that would allow Wagner to retain its existing command structure and independence while subordinated to Rosgvardia following the death of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin in September 2023.[54] Zolotov reportedly reneged on the purported agreement after learning that Wagner Commander Anton Yelizarov (call sign “Lotos”) severely overestimated his ability to convince additional former Wagner personnel to join Rosgvardia.[55]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian opposition outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mobilization News </em>reported on March 15 that Russian officials are no longer providing combat veteran certificates for veterans of Russian “Storm Z” convict units in the Southern Military District.[56] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mobilization News</em> reported that Russian officials refused to issue combat veteran certificates to “Storm Z” veterans in Krasnodar Krai, Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, and Astrakhan and Volgograd oblasts. This change, if confirmed, is likely a cost-saving measure to prevent ballooning costs related to providing Russian veterans service benefits.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities continue efforts to portray the Russian presidential election as a popular and legitimate election and claimed that Western states are interfering in the election. The Russian Central Election Commission stated that 51.77 percent of all eligible voters had voted as of 1620 Moscow time on March 16.[57] Kremlin newswire <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TASS </em>stated on March 16 that foreign observers from several dozen countries are reportedly observing the elections.[58] Russian sources have reported on cases of irregularities and voting violations, however. Stanislav Andreychuk, the Co-Chairperson for the Russian “Golos” Movement for Defense of Voters’ Rights, reported on March 16 that “Golos” had observed footage of ballot stuffing in Krasnodar Krai.[59] Russian opposition outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii </em>(<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">iStories</em>) reported on March 16 that observers in Moscow Oblast reported differences between data on claimed and actual voter turnout numbers and that Russian authorities registered on average 100 more ballots than were actually cast.[60] Russian Commissioner for Human Rights Tatyana Moskalkova claimed on March 16 that she appealed to the United Nations High Commission about the way Estonian authorities are allegedly obstructing Russian “compatriots” from voting there.[61] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 16 that some “unfriendly countries” are threatening Russian citizens and physically obstructing them from voting abroad.[62] Zakharova also claimed that the Russian MFA may summon the British ambassador to Russia if alleged, unspecified attempts to interfere in the election do not stop.[63]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian actors are reportedly attempting to exploit the relatives of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) to incite domestic discontent in Ukraine, likely as part of the wider “Maidan-3” Russian information campaign. Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated on March 16 that unspecified Russian actors are calling relatives of Ukrainian POWs and claiming that Russia is ready to return Ukrainian POWs but that the Ukrainian leadership is preventing this. The Russian actors reportedly encourage the relatives to protest about this issue. Lubinets stated that Ukraine has never stopped POW exchanges. These Russian information operations are likely part of the “Maidan-3” information campaign, which Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) previously reported intends to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and drive a wedge between civilians and military and political leadership.[64] Russia has successfully used information operations, including direct correspondence via cell phone to Ukrainian civilians, to foment violent protests in Ukraine before.[65]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov stated on March 16 that Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone call with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and discussed bilateral issues and the regional situation.[66] Russian and Belarusian sources have yet to offer further details about the call.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_104.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] <a href="https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87584" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87584</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] <a href="https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87584" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87584</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] <a href="https://x.com/neonhandrail/status/1768873567549100245?s=20;%C2%A0https://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1768870980393288182?s=20;%C2%A0https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768911752266203180?s=20;%C2%A0https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768873365836599576?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/neonhandrail/status/1768873567549100245?s=20; https://x.c...</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54823%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/milinfolive/118386%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1768875779671114129" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54823 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/118386 ;...</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1769007568456733178%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rian_ru/235709%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/tass_agency/236898%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1769007568456733178 ; https://t.me...</a> <a href="https://mil/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://mil</a> dot in.ua/uk/news/u-rf-drony-atakuvaly-vidrazu-dva-naftozavody/ ; <a href="https://t.me/news63ru/49396%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/admsyzran/11982%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/idelrealii/34336" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/news63ru/49396 ; https://t.me/admsyzran/11982 ; https:/...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] <a href="https://www.kommersant/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kommersant</a> dot ru/doc/6562980?from=63_top_main_1 ; <a href="https://www.idelreal%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idelreal dot</a> org/a/v-samarskoy-oblasti-usilili-zaschitu-neftezavodov-ot-atak-bespilotnikov/32859732.html ; <a href="https://www.kommersant/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kommersant</a> dot ru/doc/6563929?from=52_top_main_3</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar012524%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar012524 ;</a> <a href="https://www.kommersant/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kommersant</a> dot ru/doc/6562980?from=63_top_main_1 ; <a href="https://www.idelreal%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idelreal dot</a> org/a/v-samarskoy-oblasti-usilili-zaschitu-neftezavodov-ot-atak-bespilotnikov/32859732.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] <a href="https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15008%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rusengineer/3172%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34061%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116713%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/23607%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34062%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/10015" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15008 ; https://t.me/rusengineer/3172 ; h...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] <a href="https://t.me/rusengineer/3172" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rusengineer/3172</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] <a href="https://t.me/russvolcorps/910" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/russvolcorps/910</a> ;</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] <a href="https://t.me/russvolcorps/910" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/russvolcorps/910</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36675" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36675</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] <a href="https://www.rbc%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.rbc dot</a> ru/politics/15/03/2024/65f46d159a79474774463907 ; <a href="https://udprf%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://udprf dot</a> ru/content/glavnoe-kontrolnoe-upravlenie</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] <a href="https://www.kommersant%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kommersant dot</a> ru/doc/6559757?tg</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/russia-elections-no-sign-putin-plans-to-change-course-in-ukraine" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/russia-elections-no-s...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] <a href="https://meduza/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://meduza</a> dot io/en/feature/2022/06/10/the-viceroy; <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-12-2023%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16-2023;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] <a href="https://t.me/severrealii/23770" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/severrealii/23770</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/237016" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237016</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] <a href="https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/466" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/466</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] <a href="https://ria%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://ria dot</a> ru/20240316/gosduma-1933436741.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-warns-iran-not-give-russia-ballistic-missiles-ukraine-war-2024-03-15/%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/index.html%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/15/g7-iran-missiles-russia-00147308" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-warns-iran-not-give-russia-ballistic-mi...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-warns-iran-not-give-russia-ballistic-missiles-ukraine-war-2024-03-15/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-warns-iran-not-give-russia-ballistic-mi...</a> ; <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/i...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/g-7-allies-warn-iran-against-supplying-russia-with-missiles?srnd=homepage-europe%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/15/g7-iran-missiles-russia-00147308%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/g-7-allies-warn-iran-...</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/i...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missi...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/g-7-allies-warn-iran-against-supplying-russia-with-missiles?srnd=homepage-europe%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/15/g7-iran-missiles-russia-00147308%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/g-7-allies-warn-iran-...</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/i...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-22-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8Ex...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36675%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36683%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36669%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36684" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36675 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36683 ; http...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8Ex...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18767;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8353" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8353</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63818%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63818 </a>(Ivanivske); <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36972%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36972 </a>(Chasiv Yar); <a href="https://t.me/dobrovolecvostok/73" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dobrovolecvostok/73</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] <a href="https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4772;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4772;</a> <a href="https://t.me/PUMBAZSU19/169;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/PUMBAZSU19/169;</a> <a href="https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768748375531241774?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768748375531241774?s=20;</a> <a href="https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768751685969539558?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768751685969539558?s=20;</a> <a href="https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4773?single;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4773?single;</a> <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/11977;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/nm_dnr/11977;</a> <a href="https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1768911490843640118?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1768911490843640118?s=20;</a> <a href="https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1767281700231434314?s=20" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/DrazaM33/status/1767281700231434314?s=20</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63816" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63816</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] <a href="https://t.me/z_arhiv/26297" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/z_arhiv/26297</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58209" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58209</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8Ex...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36675" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36675</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36685;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36685;</a> <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58209" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58209</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] <a href="https://t.me/z_arhiv/26297%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/z_arhiv/26297 </a>(Orlivka)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] <a href="https://suspilne/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne</a> dot media/706672-rosijski-vijskovi-namagalis-zaihati-na-tankah-v-orlivku-na-avdiivskomu-napramku-komandir-bataljonu/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18767" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18767</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58209" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58209</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8Ex...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18767;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36676" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36676</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36686" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36686</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] <a href="https://t.me/voin_dv/7520;%C2%A0https://t.me/voin_dv/7526%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7520; https://t.me/voin_dv/7526 </a>(Novomykhailivka)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] <a href="https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12355;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12355;</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1522968731599822" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1522968731599822</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36950" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36950</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1710" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1710</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1710%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1710 </a>(Staromayorske and Novodonetske)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8Ex...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36950%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18767%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/tass_agency/237043%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> <a href="https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7219" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7219</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8337" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8337</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36950%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wnuE1gj2oefHym4w8ExcdCSD5BRGUH1fSfXNCQDeEwHYB238ej4tcNobT4AojdQ2l%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36950 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff....</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKhRbiKmkFuHzqLmis1wPL43hLiUfVdGY8n68wY44FexYibWl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0HLHSnxdB1tENwMYGDKh...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyqc3EDkUgMmSNX8B552iTEaq7aBcy9EnQ91HDwjWjWCQXebl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FH2YCt6P5MrfW6adhyq...</a> </p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36950" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36950</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] <a href="https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24951" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24951</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] <a href="https://t.me/synegubov/8738%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/synegubov/8738 ;</a> <a href="https://t.me/synegubov/8738" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/synegubov/8738</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] <a href="https://t.me/VadimFilashkin_donoda/1380%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/VadimFilashkin_donoda/1380 ;</a> <a href="https://dn.npu.gov/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://dn.npu.gov</a> dot ua/news/voroh-atakuvav-11-naselenykh-punktiv-donechchyny-ie-poranenyi</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] <a href="https://t.me/odeskaODA/4462" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/odeskaODA/4462</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36950" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36950</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8334" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8334</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116640%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36941%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116640 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36941 ;</a> <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36955" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36955</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116628;%C2%A0https://t.me/tass_agency/236932%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116628; https://t.me/tass_agency/236932 ;</a> <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116738" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116738</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] <a href="https://t.me/vchkogpu/46642" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/vchkogpu/46642</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar092623%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18-2023%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar100123%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar110223" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar092623 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] <a href="https://t.me/vchkogpu/46642%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/vchkogpu/46355" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/vchkogpu/46642 ; https://t.me/vchkogpu/46355</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] <a href="https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17962" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17962</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/237020" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237020</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/237006%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237006 ;</a> <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/236993" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236993</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] <a href="https://t.me/sandreychuk/474%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://meduza%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sandreychuk/474 ; https://meduza dot</a> io/news/2024/03/16/dvizhenie-golos-poluchilo-pervoe-video-vbrosa-golosov-na-vyborah-prezidenta-rf</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] <a href="https://t.me/istories_media/5516" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/istories_media/5516</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/236936;%C2%A0https://t.me/tass_agency/237052" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236936; https://t.me/tass_agency/237052</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/236929" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236929</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/237002" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237002</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/viral-disinformation-kremlin%E2%80%99s-coronavirus-information-operation-ukraine" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/viral-disinformation-kreml...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] <a href="https://t.me/pul_1/11701" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/pul_1/11701</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239951" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239951</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/237054" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/237054</a></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-72535370857839108442024-03-15T22:20:00.003-04:002024-03-15T22:20:12.008-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2024<p align="center" data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward,<br />Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p align="center" data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 15, 2024, 8:50pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:00pm ET on March 15. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months. </strong>Russian forces are attempting to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilizing their defensive lines.[1] Russian forces are particularly concentrating on pushing as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a harder-to-penetrate line in the area.[2] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 15 that Russian forces have concentrated their efforts on the Avdiivka direction and have been conducting daily mechanized and infantry assaults in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.[3] Although Ukrainian forces have recently been able to slow Russian advances west of Avdiivka, pervasive materiel shortages caused by delays in Western security assistance appear to be forcing Ukraine to prioritize limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less-well-provisioned sectors and making the frontline overall more fragile than it appears despite the current relatively slow rate of Russian advances.[4] Russian forces will continue to use the advantages provided by possessing the theater-wide initiative to dynamically reweight their offensive efforts this spring and into the summer, likely in hopes of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities.[5] Russian forces may be pressing their attempts at a breakthrough before difficult weather and terrain conditions in spring will likely constrain effective mechanized maneuver on both sides of the line and further limit Russian capabilities to make significant tactical advances while the ground is still muddy.[6] Russian forces have intensified offensive operations during similar conditions before, however, and Russian forces may seek to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations through spring regardless of difficult weather and terrain conditions in an effort to exploit Ukrainian materiel shortages before promised Western security assistance arrives in Ukraine.[7]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian and Western officials are increasingly warning about both significant Ukrainian materiel shortages and a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer.[8] The intent and design of the Russian Summer 2024 offensive effort is not immediately clear and likely will not be until Russian forces launch it, but the Russian military command likely intends to capitalize on any gains it makes in the coming weeks as well as on forecasts that the Ukrainian military may be even less-well-provisioned this summer than it is now. <strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Western and Ukrainian officials are expressing concerns about delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine ahead of this expected Russian offensive effort.<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell stated on March 14 that the West must increase and speed up its support for Ukraine as the next months will be “decisive” ahead of the expected major Russian offensive in the summer of 2024.[10] Borrell stated in an interview with <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">PBS </em>published on March 14 that Europe alone cannot, however, make up for the lack of US aid as the US has a much stronger and larger military capacity, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Washington Post </em>reported on March 15 that a senior US official stated that there is no “bright” future for Ukraine if the US does not pass the supplemental aid package for Ukraine.[12] A senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly told the <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Washington Post </em>that Russian forces are highly likely to make significant territorial gains in Summer 2024 if the US does not provide aid to Ukraine. The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Washington Post </em>reported that Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Michael Kofman assessed that the US supplemental aid package would allow Ukrainian forces to “buy time” but that Ukraine must also fix the ”structural problem” related to its limited manpower resources.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat of Russian forces making such gains through offensive operations this spring. Relative Russian successes this spring, even tactical, may set conditions for Russian forces to pursue operationally significant gains in the summer. Neither would a Ukrainian ability to further stabilize the current frontlines this spring preclude Russia from pursuing a breakthrough this summer. Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent any significant Russian advances both in Spring and Summer 2024 as long as sufficient Western security assistance arrives in the next months in a manner that allows Ukrainian forces to address current materiel shortages and prepare for and sustain future defensive operations.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly. </strong>The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Washington Post </em>reported on March 15 that Ukrainian policymakers conveyed to Western official sources that Ukraine may use up some of its air defense systems by the end of March.[13] The Ukrainian officials reportedly stated that Ukraine has previously aimed to shoot down four out of every five missiles that Russian forces launch at Ukrainian rear cities but that Ukrainian air defense shortages may force Ukraine to only target one out of every five Russian missiles. Ukraine has already had to make difficult decisions regarding the placement of its limited air defense systems in rear and frontline areas, and Russian forces have recently taken efforts to strain Ukrainian air defenses both in rear population areas and along the frontline.[14] Russian forces have recently experimented with strike packages with different means of penetrating and further pressuring the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.[15] Russian forces also utilized air strikes to tactical effect in the seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February and have intensified and improved their use of glide bombs along various sectors of the front.[16] A 60 percent reduction in Ukraine’s ability to target - let alone shoot down - Russian missiles will further exacerbate these allocation issues. ISW continues to assess that the US remains the only immediate source of necessary air defense systems like Patriots.[17]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO. </strong><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Foreign Policy</em> reported on March 14<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>that<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Director-General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) Kaupo Rosin told journalists that the Russian military is “turning into a learning organization” after the past two years of war in Ukraine and is currently resolving its battlefield problems within months.[18] Rosin stated that Estonian intelligence assesses that Russian forces have largely addressed battlefield issues with large amounts of manpower and materiel and that reforms relying on mass will likely result in a low-tech, Soviet-style Russian military with significant firepower and artillery.[19] Russian forces have addressed many tactical and operational challenges in Ukraine through their ability to field a greater amount of materiel and manpower than Ukrainian forces, notably seen with a reliance on manpower-intensive ”meat assaults” to maintain a relatively high tempo of offensive operations.[20]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Notable Russian adaptations through mass are not the only adaptations that Russian forces have made in Ukraine, however, as the Russian military has demonstrated an uneven propensity for operational, tactical, and technological innovation and learning. The Russian defensive effort against the Ukrainian summer 2023 counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast was relatively successful largely due to the 58th Combined Arms Army’s (Southern Military District [SMD]) ability to prepare for and conduct a doctrinally sound ”elastic defense” that Russian forces had previously struggled to conduct in Ukraine.[21] That Russian defensive effort also successfully employed technological adaptations with electronic warfare (EW) systems and drones, and the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) appears to have established some degree of effective reconnaissance-fire complex (RFC) to repel Ukrainian mechanized assaults.[22] It remains unclear to what degree the Russian military has internalized and disseminated these adaptations among different Russian force groupings in Ukraine, but the Russian military is attempting to adapt to the tactical and operational challenges of fighting in Ukraine at scale.[23] Ongoing Russian offensive operations suggest that the Russian command may have learned from previous operational campaign design mistakes, and the Russian military is employing select tactical-level adaptations on certain sectors of the front.[24] Continued widespread Russian tactical failures throughout Ukraine suggest that the Russian military command has struggled the most to internalize and disseminate adaptations at the tactical level, however.[25]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rosin stated that Russia is currently attempting to restructure and expand in anticipation of a possible war with NATO in the next 10 years, and other Western intelligence agencies have previously made similar assessments.[26] ISW assesses that the ongoing recreation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD) and efforts to create at least a dozen new formations are likely preparations for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO.[27] Russian forces will also likely attempt to ensure that the Russian military has widely scaled adaptions from its current conventional war in Ukraine to forces that it envisions potentially fighting a conventional war against NATO countries that do not have similar recent experiences to draw from.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Senior European officials stressed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would result in Russia posing a strategic threat to NATO security. </strong>European Union (EU) High Commissioner Josep Borrell stated on March 14 that a Russian victory in Ukraine that places Russian troops on the borders of Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states would be an “unbearable” security cost to Europe and the United States.[28] Borrell noted that there is no alternative to NATO to ensure European security against a Russian threat and stated that Russia’s invasion acted as a ”strategic wake-up call” for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense capacities in the future.[29] French President Emmanuel Macron agreed with Borrell, stating that Russia’s war in Ukraine is ”existential for our Europe and for France.”[30] Macron emphasized that a Russian victory in Ukraine would diminish European security and that if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, Europe should ”be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war [in Ukraine].”[31] Director-General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) Kaupo Rosin stated that a war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable but that the future of Europe heavily depends on the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine.[32]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russia%20Win_0.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russia%20Win_0.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russia%20Win_0.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russia%20Win_0.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.” </strong>Medvedev threatened Rinkēvičs’ life in a post on March 15 and claimed that Russia will hang Rinkēvičs alongside the current “Nazi” Ukrainian government for “wish[ing] for the death of Russia.”[33] Medvedev also claimed that Latvia is a ”non-existent country.” ISW previously noted that Medvedev’s sardonic and extreme March 14 ”peace formula” more explicitly outlines real and central elements of the Kremlin’s ideology and stated war aims and justifications.[34] Medvedev’s March 15 post is a similarly explicit presentation of the Kremlin’s ideological framing of the war in Ukraine as part of Russia’s longer-term conflict with the West and NATO that Putin has previously alluded to by claiming that Russia is fighting a geopolitical “Nazi” force gaining power in the West.[35] Medvedev’s threats against Rinkēvičs and the current Ukrainian government follow previous Kremlin efforts to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO member and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.[36]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 15 that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Macron stated that anyone advocating for ”limits” on aid to Ukraine is choosing defeat and that ”to have peace in Ukraine, [Europe] must not be weak.” Macron noted that if France decides to send French troops to Ukraine in the future, the responsibility for the decision will lie solely with Russia. Macron stated that the West is doing everything possible to help Ukraine and that there can be no lasting peace in Ukraine without recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty and internationally recognized borders, including Crimea. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Politico</em> previously reported that France is building an alliance of countries open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russia’s border region on March 15. </strong>Putin accused “Ukrainian forces” - referring to likely elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion - of conducting the cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on March 12 to 15 in order to disrupt Russia’s ongoing presidential election and turn international attention to Ukraine.[39] Putin claimed that the Russian people will respond to these raids with ”even greater unity” and that pro-Ukrainian forces will not intimidate Russia. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian border units and the Russian military continued to repel assaults by pro-Ukrainian forces near Spodaryushino and Kozinka, Belgorod Oblast and Tetkino, Kursk Oblast on March 14 and 15.[40] Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of Russia’s 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Main Military Intelligence Directorate’s [GRU]) are also defending against the attacks on the borders of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices. </strong>Ukrainian outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Suspilne </em>reported that the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a drone strike against the Perviy Zavod oil refinery near Kaluga City overnight on March 14 to 15 and that Russia uses this refinery for military purposes.[42] Geolocated footage published on March 15 shows a drone impact and a large explosion at the Perviy Zavod refinery, which is reportedly the largest petrochemical complex in Kaluga Oblast.[43] Russian news outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RBK </em>reported on March 13 that the price of Russian AI-95 grade oil exceeded 60,000 rubles (about $648) per ton for the first time since September 2023 due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and that the price of other grades of Russian oil similarly increased on March 13.[44] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RBK </em>also reported that the shutdown of the two main oil processing units at the Ryazan oil refinery and another main oil processing unit at the Nizhny Novgorod refinery due to Ukrainian strikes on March 13 may reduce Russian gas production by eight to nine percent and significantly impact the Russian oil market.[45]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15. </strong>Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sever Realii </em>reported on March 15 that the Russian Investigative Committee opened eight criminal cases against Russians who committed arson and damaged ballot boxes at polling stations throughout Russia and in occupied Ukraine.[46] Russian sources amplified footage of several Russians pouring dye, ink, or paint into ballot boxes, and Russian officials reported that some Russians also poured paint on ballot counting devices and set polling stations on fire.[47] The Moscow Prosecutor’s Office warned that residents should not attend ”Noon Against Putin” protests outside polling stations at noon on March 17.[48] Isolated public protests against the Russian presidential election and Russian President Vladimir Putin are highly unlikely to impact the course or outcome of the Russian presidential election unless there is widespread public participation, which is also unlikely.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat of Russian forces making such gains through offensive operations this spring.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Senior European officials stressed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would result in Russia posing a strategic threat to NATO security.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.”</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 15 that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russia’s border region on March 15.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Treatment of Prisoners of War Coordinating Headquarters Representative Petro Yatsenko stated that Russia has intensified its efforts to recruit military personnel from abroad.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian sources and Russian opposition media reported that occupation officials continue coercive efforts to artificially inflate voter turnout and perceptions of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in occupied Ukraine.</strong></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong> </p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 15. Geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced east of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk).[49] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced 300 meters in an area east of Terny and Yampolivka (west of Kreminna) and that Russian forces also advanced in an unspecified area near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian advances near Bilohorivka.[50] Positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Pershotravneve; southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; southwest of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area; and near Bilohorivka.[51] Elements of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating near Spirne (south of Kreminna).[52]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Bakhmut on March 15, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Bakhmut area stated that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces from unspecified positions in the Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces have not advanced on the outskirts of Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut) in the past week and a half.[53] Positional fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka (21km northeast of Bakhmut) and Rozdolivka; northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Bakhmut near Niu York.[54] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are operating north of Soledar (northeast of Bakhmut), and elements of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are operating near Horlivka (south of Bakhmut).[55]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting in the area on March 15. Geolocated footage published on March 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced westward within Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka).[56] Russian milbloggers claimed on March 14 and 15 that Russian forces also recently advanced up to 400 meters in depth between Orlivka and Tonenke (both west of Avdiivka) and within Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[57] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces control heights northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka and Ocheretyne that complicate Russian advances in the area and that Ukrainian mechanized operations near Berdychi also pose challenges to attacking Russian forces.[58] Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and Semenivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka and Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[59] Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are conducting assaults with small infantry groups in the Avdiivka direction.[60] Elements of the Russian 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) are operating in the Avdiivka area.[61]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 15, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 1.5 kilometers in depth north of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City), although ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.[62] Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane.[63] Elements of the Russian 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly attacking near Pobieda, and elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Novomykhailivka.[64]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 15. Positional fighting occurred southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Novodonetske, Shevchenko, and Volodymyrivka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.[65] Elements of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near Staromayorske and elements of the 26th Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Protection Regiment (36th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near Volodymyrivka.[66] Aviation elements of the Russian 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) reportedly conducted glide bomb strikes near Vuhledar.[67]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) recently advanced north and northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyne).[68] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove.[69] Elements of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) and elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[70]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces maintain positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky as of March 15 amid continued positional engagements in the area.[71]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2015%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Defense News </em>reported on March 14 that the Kakhovka Reservoir is refilling with water again, which will weaken the soil and prevent military equipment, including amphibious vehicles, from traversing it.[72] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Defense News</em> stated that satellite imagery between October 2023 and March 2024 shows that the Kakhovka Reservoir is filling with water from melted snow and that the biggest water accumulations are east of Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast. The Kakhovka Reservoir significantly dried up after Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in June 2023.[73]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 14-15 and during the day on March 15. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian forces launched 27 Shahed-136/131 drones overnight from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast and that Ukrainian forces shot down all 27 drones over Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv oblasts.[74] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts with seven S-300/400 missiles, Poltava Oblast with a Kh-59 missile, and residential buildings in Vinnytsia Oblast with Shahed drones on the night of March 14-15.[75] Ukrainian officials stated that Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles struck civil infrastructure in Odesa City, killing at least 19 Ukrainian civilians and wounding at least 70.[76]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office Head Oleksandr Filchakov stated on March 14 that Russian forces have struck six Ukrainian oblasts with 50 North Korean missiles since December 2023.[77] Filchakov reported that North Korean missiles are of low quality with an imperfect control system and a flight range of about 700 kilometers. Filchakov stated that Ukrainian forces have observed many of the North Korean missiles exploding in the air before striking their intended targets.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Treatment of Prisoners of War Coordinating Headquarters Representative Petro Yatsenko stated that Russia has intensified its effort to recruit military personnel from abroad.[78] Yatsenko stated that Russia’s coercive force generation campaign targeting Russian prisoners and former Wagner Group personnel has run out of force generation capacity, so Russia has intensified recruiting in states with “difficult economic situation[s].” Yatsenko stated that the number of Cuban citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine is increasing because Russia feels confident in its relations with Cuba and that many foreigners from India, Africa, Nepal, Serbia, Latin America, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq are serving in the Russian military.<br /><br /><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces continue efforts to develop their drone operation capabilities. Russian Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions General Director Dmitry Kuzyakin stated that Russian forces are developing a new military specialty for first-person view (FPV) drone operators and that the development of new drone technology can lead to the emergence of many military specialties.[79] The Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies told Russian state-affiliated news outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Izvestia </em>that it has proposed changes that would allow Russian drone operators to use special radio frequencies to communicate with aircraft crews as drone operators currently use standard frequencies that are often overloaded, causing issues.[80] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Izvestia </em>reported that these new frequencies will allow Russia to increase its usage of drones for civilian transportation, and this change may also benefit Russian forces as they attempt to strengthen their drone operations.[81]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary. </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian sources and Russian opposition media reported that occupation officials continue coercive efforts to artificially inflate voter turnout and perceptions of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on March 14 that Putin tasked Russian and occupation officials with falsifying a 75 percent voter turnout and 75 percent level of support for Putin in occupied Ukraine but noted that occupation officials will likely claim that a higher percentage of residents (85 percent) voted and supported Putin in order to please Putin.[82] Skibitsky stated that the Kremlin will use these numbers to falsely demonstrate support for Putin in occupied Ukraine.[83] Russian opposition outlet<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Vazhnye Istorii</em> (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">IStories</em>) reported on March 13 that Russian authorities have registered 4.5 million voters in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts despite estimates that only 2.5 million adults currently live in occupied Ukraine.[84] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on March 13 and 14 that occupation authorities are forcing an estimated 100,000 Russian workers and Central Asia migrants living in occupied Ukraine to vote there in order to artificially inflate voter turnout numbers.[85] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that occupation authorities are also conducting door-to-door visits and listing residents who refuse to vote as ”disloyal.”[86] Occupation authorities are holding propaganda events in support of Putin’s election campaign and promising pensioners and university-age students, including those in Russia, monetary benefits if they vote in occupied Ukraine.[87] Ukrainian partisan organization Yellow Ribbon stated on March 15 that occupation authorities are forcefully transporting people to polling stations in occupied Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.[88]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian partisans reportedly detonated an improved explosive device (IED) in occupied Kherson Oblast during voting for the Russian presidential election on March 15. Kherson Oblast occupation election commission and occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo claimed that Ukrainian “provocateurs” detonated an IED near a polling station in occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast but that the explosion did not cause any casualties.[89] Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko also reported explosions in Skadovsk on March 15.[90]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities attempted to portray the first official day of voting in the Russian presidential election as having a significant turnout in order to create a veneer of legitimate and meaningful elections. The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) claimed that just under 29 percent of all eligible voters had cast their ballots by 2000 Moscow time on March 15.[91] Russian state news outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RIA Novosti </em>cited an interlocutor as reporting that the voter turnout in Belgorod Oblast exceeded 50 percent despite the ongoing cross-border raids in the oblast.[92] Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">SOTA </em>reported that a local branch of Russian state television channel<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Rossiya-1</em> in Belgorod Oblast reported a 3.92 percent turnout by 1345 Moscow time on March 15 and an implausible increase to 52 percent by 1500.[93] CEC Chairperson Ella Pamfilova claimed that more than 333,600 international observers observed the first day of the election but that various actors attempted to interfere in the elections, including an alleged 10,000 cyberattacks against the virtual voting portal.[94] Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii</em> reported that there were almost no independent observers at polling stations throughout Russia and that most of the observers are affiliated with the Kremlin and Russian Public Chambers.[95]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_102.jpg" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_102.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://t.me/osirskiy/625</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-21-2023 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120923</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-foreign-policy-chief-borrell-washington-says-outcome-ukraine-war-will-be-2024-03-14/#:~:text=We%20have%20to%20speed%20up,to%20support%20Ukraine's%20war%20effort.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/eus-top-foreign-policy-official-calls-30000-killed-in-gaza-a-massacre https://isw.pub/UkrWar021324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/15/ukraine-no-us-aid/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/15/ukraine-no-us-aid/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar012324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-17-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-military-war-nato-estonia-intelligence/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-military-war-nato-estonia-intelligence/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020124%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar111723%C2%A0; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120923</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://isw.pub/UkrWar060823 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar061023 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar090723 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar090323 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://isw.pub/UkrWar110123 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110123%C2%A0; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110123%C2%A0; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-military-war-nato-estonia-intelligence/ ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/eus-top-foreign-policy-official-calls-30000-killed-in-gaza-a-massacre</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/eus-top-foreign-policy-official-calls-30000-killed-in-gaza-a-massacre</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://www.lemonde dot fr/en/france/article/2024/03/14/macron-says-russian-ukraine-victory-would-reduce-europe-s-credibility-to-zero_6619721_7.html ; https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446544/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://www.lemonde dot fr/en/france/article/2024/03/14/macron-says-russian-ukraine-victory-would-reduce-europe-s-credibility-to-zero_6619721_7.html ; https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446544/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-military-war-nato-estonia-intelligence/ </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/465</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar013024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021324</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://www.lemonde dot fr/en/france/article/2024/03/14/macron-says-russian-ukraine-victory-would-reduce-europe-s-credibility-to-zero_6619721_7.html ; https://www.lemonde dot fr/en/france/article/2024/03/14/macron-says-russian-ukraine-victory-would-reduce-europe-s-credibility-to-zero_6619721_7.html ; https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446544/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024 ; https://www.politico.eu/article/france-finds-baltic-allies-in-its-spat-with-germany-over-ukraine-aid-sikorski-nato-macron-troops-war/ ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73657 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/20245743 ; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73657 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/20245709</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/mod_russia/36650 ; https://t.me/rybar/58195 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63711 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63766 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8311 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36900; https://t.me/Alekhin_Telega/9728 ; https://t.me/rybar/58171 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/14986 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34009 ; https://t.me/rybar/58176 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36774 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116494 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/10008 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36927</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/rybar/58173 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45546 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/14987</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://suspilne dot media/706256-droni-namagalisa-atakuvati-naftozavod-pid-kalugou-zmi/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768537136964214865; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768536527116583323; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768536076069540333; https://t.co/06Pt0YLzQo; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1768540806959218767 ; https://t.me/sprava_groma/17966 ; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1768545558317216216?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://www.rbc dot ru/business/13/03/2024/65f18d389a7947b2bcc4e416?from=column_4</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://www.rbc dot ru/business/13/03/2024/65f18d389a7947b2bcc4e416?from=column_4</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://t.me/severrealii/23751</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/tass_agency/236754 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/236741 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/236726 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/236724 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/15/v-raznyh-gorodah-rossii-v-urny-dlya-golosovaniya-lyut-zelenku-i-chernila-vozbuzhdeny-pervye-ugolovnye-dela ; https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/17421 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/62184 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/76822 ; https://t.me/idelrealii/34326 ; https://t.me/bazabazon/25892 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/62180 ; https://t.me/bazabazon/25898 ; https://t.me/bazabazon/25907</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/15/prokuratura-moskvy-v-tretiy-raz-predupredila-ob-opasnosti-aktsii-polden-protiv-putina-prigroziv-tyurmoy-tem-kto-zovet-na-nee-podrostkov; https://epp.genproc.gov dot ru/web/proc_77/mass-media/news?item=93794257 ; https://t.me/istories_media/5483 ; https://t.me/istories_media/5484 ; https://t.me/istories_media/5508</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://x.com/14_OMBR/status/1768321499713110389?s=20; https://x.com/blinzka/status/1768333347531395377?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://t.me/dva_majors/36774 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Y5BNUz9h2ASPyHWk6BLrTqqBdMQtev6nNtvTvL2JuCcvHLu6tQiZD4qMiFRukj9Pl ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36650 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13243</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://suspilne dot media/706352-sili-oboroni-vibili-vijskovih-rf-z-kilkoh-pozicij-na-bahmutskomu-napramku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://suspilne dot media/706352-sili-oboroni-vibili-vijskovih-rf-z-kilkoh-pozicij-na-bahmutskomu-napramku/ ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36650 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36641</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/mod_russia/36644 (Soledar) ; https://t.me/nm_dnr/11975 (Horlivka)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12304; https://t.me/kyianyn204/455; https://t.me/kyianyn204/459; https://t.me/brygada47/559</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8298 ; https://t.me/rybar/58176 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116493 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54765 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54767</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116586</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Y5BNUz9h2ASPyHWk6BLrTqqBdMQtev6nNtvTvL2JuCcvHLu6tQiZD4qMiFRukj9Pl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36650 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36641 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116586 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://suspilne dot media/706138-rosijski-vijskovi-spaluut-trupi-svoih-zagiblih-vijskovosluzbovciv-situacia-na-avdiivskomu-napramku/ ; https://t.me/ab3army/3786</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://t.me/nm_dnr/11976</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://t.me/dva_majors/36774</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Y5BNUz9h2ASPyHWk6BLrTqqBdMQtev6nNtvTvL2JuCcvHLu6tQiZD4qMiFRukj9Pl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://t.me/voin_dv/7509 (Novomykahilivka) ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63710 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34013 ; https://t.me/swodki/358512 (Pobieda)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://t.me/mod_russia/36645 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36651 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/7512</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://t.me/voin_dv/7512</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://t.me/voin_dv/7504</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://t.me/Ronins44_65/161; https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768387644386374018?s=20; https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768387938717450694?s=20 ; https://t.me/Alliance3029/50; https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768379293132857728?s=20; https://x.com/moklasen/status/1768379295657755132?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Y5BNUz9h2ASPyHWk6BLrTqqBdMQtev6nNtvTvL2JuCcvHLu6tQiZD4qMiFRukj9Pl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18748 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36774 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://t.me/voin_dv/7507 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/118332</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Y5BNUz9h2ASPyHWk6BLrTqqBdMQtev6nNtvTvL2JuCcvHLu6tQiZD4qMiFRukj9Pl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02jj5efJCrhf2UeTQHf9k6eEPBv8t5AbcLLxxMPH5typdbMTL6jzembSwHEjsSwV2gl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YX4aD22H3fHXN4Qv6nVY91F9MDYtuZnVfKHiNdDMDwVdQFNN4JDGME27odzwQs9Kl ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7187 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/4517 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36774</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://defence-ua dot com/photo/u_kahovske_vodoshovische_povernulas_voda_jak_tse_vpline_na_bojovi_diji_scho_pokazujut_suputnikovi_znimki-299.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2023 ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65963403</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://t.me/kpszsu/11866</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] https://t.me/synegubov/8732 ; https://t.me/kpszsu/11866 ; https://www.facebook.com/borzov.s.s/posts/pfbid02D4vRqTcNzBQu1SEcs75ixirDp1kQu2mhzhmDWkMZ78xL8sV5JL6AYRH9EbRqXPVMl ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/15/na-vinnychchyni-cherez-vluchannya-bpla-u-zhytlovyj-budynok-zagynula-lyudyna/ </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] https://t.me/odeskaODA/4445 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/15/udar-po-odesi-vzhe-8-zagyblyh-ta-ponad-20-poranenyh/ ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/15/kilkist-zagyblyh-vnaslidok-raketnoyi-ataky-rf-po-odesi-zrosla-do-16/ ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/15/v-odesse-14-chelovek-pogibli-i-okolo-50-postradali-iz-za-rossiyskogo-raketnogo-udara ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7194</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] https://suspilne dot media/706082-50-pivnicnokorejskih-raket-rosia-vipustila-po-ukraini-za-dva-roki-povnomasstabnoi-vijni/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] https://suspilne dot media/706664-rf-zalucae-na-vijnu-proti-ukraini-dedali-bilse-najmanciv-z-derzav-zi-skladnou-ekonomicnou-situacieu-koordstab/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] https://t.me/tass_agency/236608</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] https://iz dot ru/1665191/valerii-kodachigov-maksim-talavrinov/prolet-normalnyi-operatory-dronov-smogut-obshchatsia-s-ekipazhami-samoletov</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[81] https://iz dot ru/1665191/valerii-kodachigov-maksim-talavrinov/prolet-normalnyi-operatory-dronov-smogut-obshchatsia-s-ekipazhami-samoletov</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[82] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/tsyfry-maiut-znachennia-vykliuchno-dlia-putina-i-rosiiskoi-propahandy-vadym-skibitskyi-pro-vybory-u-rf.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[83] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/tsyfry-maiut-znachennia-vykliuchno-dlia-putina-i-rosiiskoi-propahandy-vadym-skibitskyi-pro-vybory-u-rf.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[84] https://t.me/istories_media/5466 ; https://storage.googleapis dot com/istories/news/2024/03/13/vlasti-rossii-zaregistrirovali-na-viborakh-v-okkupirovannikh-oblastyakh-ukraini-pochti-vdvoe-bolshe-izbiratelei-chem-tam-realno-prozhivaet/index.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[85] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/rosiyany-zakinchyly-golosuvannya-svogo-osobovogo-skladu-na-tot/ ; https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/okupanty-prymushuyut-golosuvaty-na-tot-migrantiv-z-tsentralnoyi-aziyi/ ; https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/vybory-na-tot-yak-rosiyany-falsyfikuyut-yavku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[86] https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/vybory-na-tot-yak-rosiyany-falsyfikuyut-yavku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[87] https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/vybory-na-tot-yak-rosiyany-falsyfikuyut-yavku/ ; https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/vorog-provodyt-informatsijnu-kampaniyu-z-metoyu-legalizuvaty-okupatsiyu/ </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[88] https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/8125 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[89] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2535 ; https://t.me/VGA_Kherson/19669 ; https://t.me/izbirkomherson/1490</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[90] https://t.me/andriyshTime/19474</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[91] https://t.me/tass_agency/236830</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[92] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/15/izbirkom-belgorodskoy-oblasti-yavka-v-pervyy-den-vyborov-prevysila-50-pri-etom-v-regione-trizhdy-vklyuchali-sirenu-raketnoy-opasnosti; https://t.me/rian_ru/235604</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[93] https://t.me/sotaproject/76897 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[94] https://t.me/tass_agency/236590; https://t.me/tass_agency/236747; https://t.me/tass_agency/236777; https://t.me/tass_agency/236653; https://t.me/svobodnieslova/4349</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[95] https://t.me/istories_media/5498</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-32031831053186461682024-03-15T22:16:00.004-04:002024-03-15T22:16:34.890-04:00Iran Update, March 15, 2024<p><br /></p><p align="center" data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, <br />Kathryn Tyson, Anne McGill, and Brian Carter</strong></p><p align="center" data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CORRECTION:</strong> The March 14, 2024, edition of the Gaza Strip maps described the jetty that is under construction along the Gazan coast to facilitate the delivery of aid as “Israeli-built.” NGO World Central Kitchen is building this jetty, not Israel.[1] We apologize for the error.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Seven Iranian, Lebanese, and regional sources told Reuters on March 14 that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in February 2024 to discuss the possibility of an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.[3] Three of the sources told Reuters that an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah “could pressure Iran to react more forcefully" by intensifying<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>“its proxy war” against Israel.[4] Iran has avoided directly fighting Israel and the United States in the current war, instead using its proxies across the region to fight on Iran’s behalf. Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation. Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.[5] Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces--as part of the joint operations room--to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.[6]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iranian officials may also have been messaging Iran’s opposition to a direct confrontation with Israel to try to appease the Iranian public. An Iranian source told Reuters that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to avoid a direct war with Israel.[7] Some Iranians criticize the regime for funding Iran’s proxies and focusing on external affairs while failing to improve citizens’ lives and the economy.[8] Many of the sociocultural, economic, and political frustrations that ignited the Mahsa Amini movement that began in September 2022 remain prevalent among the Iranian population, moreover.[9]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanon: </strong>Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces—as part of the joint operations room—to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Telegraph</em> reported that five Iranian-controlled, US-sanctioned container ships are using European ports to disguise weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Zahra, south of Gaza City.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Negotiations: </strong>Hamas submitted a ceasefire proposal and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange to international mediators.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>Houthi fighters conducted at least three attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Syria: </strong>Israel likely conducted a drone strike targeting a truck transporting weapons for Iranian-backed militias near Albu Kamal, Syria.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran: </strong>The G7 countries warned Iran that it should not transfer missiles to Russia.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>Tens of thousands of Palestinian worshippers gathered peacefully at the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers, despite repeated Hamas calls to “defend” the mosque.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch15%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch15%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch15%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch15%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Zahra, south of Gaza City, on March 15. </strong>Three Palestinian militias, including Hamas, targeted Israeli forces in Zahra using rocket-propelled grenades (RPG), thermobaric rockets, and indirect rocket fire.[10] The militias may have infiltrated into Zahra and other areas of southern Gaza City from areas of the central Gaza Strip that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has not yet cleared. The militias also likely reactivated dormant cells after the Israelis decreased the number of IDF troops in the northern Strip.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Nahal Brigade (162 Division) killed ten Palestinian fighters in an unspecified area in the central Gaza Strip on March 15.[11] Israeli forces are currently operating at the intersection of the northern and central Strip near Wadi Gaza.[12]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 15. </strong>Israeli forces directed an airstrike targeting a Palestinian militia squad that was loading explosives into a vehicle in Khan Younis.[13] Hamas fighters fired RPGs targeting Israeli forces in Hamad neighborhood.[14] Hamas fighters returned from the frontlines in Hamad and said that they had conducted a complex attack by detonating an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) and firing a thermobaric rocket targeting an Israeli armored vehicle.[15]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2015%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2015%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CORRECTION: The March 14, 2024, edition of the Gaza Strip maps described the jetty that is under construction along the Gazan coast to facilitate the delivery of aid as “Israeli-built.” NGO World Central Kitchen is building this jetty, not Israel.[16] We apologize for the error.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas submitted a ceasefire proposal and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange to international mediators on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The proposal is Hamas’ response to the US, Qatari, and Egyptian proposal that Hamas has been deliberating over for weeks.[18] Hamas’ statement said that the proposal includes a ceasefire, calls for Israel to release Palestinian prisoners, an increase in the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, a return of displaced Palestinians, and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip.[19] The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said that Hamas continues to make “unrealistic demands.”[20] A senior Israeli official noted that Hamas’ proposal included the number of Palestinian prisoners that Hamas demands Israel release as part of the deal.[21] The number of Palestinian prisoners Hamas is demanding has been a point of contention during ceasefire negotiations. Hamas reportedly expressed readiness to reduce the number of Palestinian prisoners whom Israel would release.[22] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN</em> reported that Israel is sending a delegation to Doha for further talks.[23]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The first delivery of humanitarian aid via the maritime corridor arrived in the northern Gaza Strip on March 15</strong>.[24] The first humanitarian aid ship left Cyprus on March 12. The UAE and Cyprus funded the project, and World Central Kitchen (WCK) organized the delivery.[25] The IDF confirmed on March 15 that its forces are on land and at sea to secure the delivery area.[26] The ship contained 115 tons of food and water. WCK transferred the food and water into 12 trucks that then distributed the aid in the northern Gaza Strip.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the best option Israel has for the future leader in the Gaza Strip will be local Palestinians who are affiliated with the Palestinian Authority (PA).</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to allow local clans unaffiliated with Hamas or the PA to rule the Gaza Strip after the war ends.[28] Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City on March 13. Palestinian civilians accused the clan of cooperating with Israel.[29] The attack demonstrates that Hamas intends to reassert its authority in the Gaza Strip and suppress political opposition.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas criticized PA President Mahmoud Abbas’ appointment of a new prime minister.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Abbas appointed current Palestinian Investment Fund Chairman Mohammad Mustafa as the new PA prime minister on March 14.[31] Abbas tasked him with forming a new government that will seek to rebuild the Gaza Strip after the war. Hamas stated on March 15 that Abbas’ decision is an “individual decision” that is “devoid of substance,” noting that Palestinians have lost confidence in the PA’s policies.[32]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas announced on March 15 that it established a “government” with Palestinian armed groups, including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), in response to Mustafa’s appointment.[33] Hamas warned that ”political exclusivity will grow,” and that ”division will deepen” without a national consensus on a government.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">PIJ fighters fired rockets targeting unspecified Israeli towns surrounding the Gaza Strip on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF Air Force and artillery forces targeted Palestinian military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip on March 15 in response to rocket launches into southern Israel on March 14.[35]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF said on March 15 that it has conducted over 60 ”brigade operations” in the West Bank since the Israel-Hamas war began.[37] The IDF also said that more than half of Palestinians that Israel has detained in the West Bank are associated with Hamas.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Tens of thousands of Palestinian worshippers gathered peacefully at the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers on March 15, despite repeated Hamas calls to “defend” the mosque.</strong>[39] Israeli police reported that there were no confrontations during the prayers.[40] Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called in February for marches on al Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.[41] Ramadan began on March 10. Hamas released several statements in March that called for Palestinians to escalate attacks against Israeli forces in the West Bank.[42]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Telegraph</em> reported on March 14 that five Iranian-controlled, US-sanctioned container ships are using European ports to disguise weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Telegraph</em> reported that the Iranian ships transport weapons from Bandar Abbas, Iran, to Latakia, Syria. Unspecified sources told<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> The Telegraph</em> that some of these ships continue to Belgium, Italy, and Spain to obfuscate the nature of the shipments. One of the sources said that Iran has relied on shipping weapons to Hezbollah by sea following Israeli attacks on Iranian land shipments from Iraq to Syria.[45] Israel has conducted an air campaign in Syria in recent months meant to disrupt Iran’s efforts to transfer weapons and military systems to Hezbollah and other Iranian partners in the Levant.[46] Hezbollah members have claimed previously that the group controls surveillance at the port and that the port is ”ours, [Hezbollah’s].”[47]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israel likely conducted a drone strike on March 15 targeting a truck transporting weapons for Iranian-backed militias near Albu Kamal, Syria.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>A local Syrian outlet reported that the militia fighters were transporting Iranian missile parts to Lebanese Hezbollah.[49] The IDF previously said in February 2024 that it had conducted a series of airstrikes targeting more than 50 Hezbollah and Hezbollah-affiliated targets in Syria since the start of the Israel-Hamas war to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah through Syria.[50]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian state media said on March 14 that Iran and the United States conducted secret indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman in January 2024, thus confirming earlier Western reports.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Financial Times</em> reported that the talks were primarily focused on convincing Tehran to pressure the Houthis to halt attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea but included discussions over Iran’s nuclear program.[52] Iranian state media denied that the negotiations addressed the Houthi attacks but confirmed that the two sides held nuclear negotiations, citing an unspecified “informed” Iranian source.[53]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The G7 countries warned Iran on March 15 that it should not transfer missiles to Russia.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The G7 countries threatened “new and significant measures against Iran,” including new sanctions, if Iran transfers missiles to Russia. Western media reported that the G7 is considering banning Iran’s national air carrier, Iran Air, from conducting flights to Europe.[55] American and European officials told Western media on March 15 that they have no evidence confirming that Iran has supplied missiles to Russia.[56] Iranian sources told Reuters on February 21 that Iran provided hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in early January.[57]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian Ambassador to Qatar Ali Saleh Abadi discussed security cooperation with Qatari Interior Minister and Internal Security Force (Lekhwiya) Commander Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad al Thani in Doha on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Abadi previously served as the governor of Iran’s Central Bank between October 2021 and December 2022 and has served as Iran’s ambassador to Qatar since August 2023.[59] Abadi’s appointment coincided with the transfer of $6 billion worth of frozen Iranian assets to Qatari banks as part of a prisoner swap agreement with the United States.[60] The Lekhwiya is a Qatari security service responsible for counterterrorism, riot control, the maintenance of security and public order, and the protection of Qatar’s borders and coasts.[61] Thani previously took military training courses on combating terrorism and riot control between 2015 and 2018.[62]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Houthi fighters have conducted at least three attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63]</strong> US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis conducted two anti-ship ballistic missile attacks from Houthi-controlled Yemen, targeting unspecified targets in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.[64] Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed on March 15 that Houthi fighters had targeted the Panama-flagged, Vietnamese-owned <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Pacific 01</em> merchant vessel in the Red Sea.[65] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations separately reported an explosion occurred alongside a vessel on March 15 approximately 65 nautical miles west of Hudaydah in the Red Sea.[66] The vessel did not suffer any damage.[67] Saree also claimed that the Houthis launched one-way attack drones targeting a US warship in the Red Sea.[68]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US CENTCOM reported on March 14 that it conducted preemptive strikes targeting nine anti-ship missiles and two drones in Houthi-controlled Yemen.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69]</strong> CENTCOM determined that the munitions presented an “imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2015%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2015%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2015%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The United States and the United Kingdom expressed their support to boost the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism’s (UNVIM) capacity to inspect shipments to Houthi-controlled ports during a UNSC meeting on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[70]</strong> US Alternative Representative for Special Political Affairs, Ambassador Robert Wood, stated that UNVIM is critical to identifying violations of the Houthi arms embargo and preventing weapon shipments to the Houthis.[71] UNVIM operates under the auspices of UN Security Council Resolution 2216 to monitor commercial and bilateral aid shipments bound for Yemeni ports in the Red Sea and inspect the cargo for banned items, including weapons.[72] UNSC Resolution 2216 demanded an immediate ceasefire in Yemen in 2015 and imposed sanctions, a travel ban, and an arms embargo on Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi.[73] Iran continues to supply advanced conventional weapons and ”other lethal aid” to the Houthis in support of the group’s attack campaign in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to US officials.[74]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_103.jpg" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_103.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://twitter.com/WCKitchen/status/1767592876140052541</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tells-iran-it-would-fight-alone-any-war-with-israel-2024-03-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tells-iran-it-would-fight-alone-any-war-with-israel-2024-03-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tells-iran-it-would-fight-alone-any-war-with-israel-2024-03-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/1201447/%25D8%25A7%25D8%25AA%25D8%25A7%25D9%2582-%25D8%25B9%25D9%2585%25D9%2584%25DB%258C%25D8%25A7%25D8%25AA-%25D9%2585%25D8%25B4%25D8%25AA%25D8%25B1%25DA%25A9-%25D8%25A7%25DB%258C%25D8%25B1%25D8%25A7%25D9%2586-%25D9%2588-%25DA%25AF%25D8%25B1%25D9%2588%25D9%2587-%25D9%2587%25D8%25A7%25DB%258C-%25D9%2585%25D9%2582%25D8%25A7%25D9%2588%25D9%2585%25D8%25AA-%25D8%25A7%25DB%258C%25D8%25AC%25D8%25A7%25D8%25AF-%25D8%25B4%25D8%25AF</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tells-iran-it-would-fight-alone-any-war-with-israel-2024-03-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202310151412</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202310151412</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1761; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1762; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6024; https://t.me/sarayaps/17564</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768534456913084712</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463953393647701</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768534407030219143</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1763</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1764</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://twitter.com/WCKitchen/status/1767592876140052541</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://t.me/hamasps/19749</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/14/hamas-hostage-ceasefire-deal-proposal-israel</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://t.me/hamasps/19749</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://twitter.com/IsraeliPM/status/1768510281154433334</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/14/hamas-hostage-ceasefire-deal-proposal-israel</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/04/ceasefire-palestinians-hostage-northern-gaza-israel-hamas</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-15-24/h_bd1c410b2db0f3e72e87398e56b3d89d</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://x.com/chefjoseandres/status/1768666985611563346?s=20; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768694903029072117</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1767463205733798148; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-preparing-for-arrival-of-first-humanitarian-aid-shipment-from-cyprus-to-gaza/;%C2%A0; https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1767307821995999595;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://www.idf dot il/185935</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://timesofisrael dot com/gallant-says-pa-tied-palestinians-are-least-bad-option-for-gaza-rulers-is-lambasted-by-fellow-likud-ministers/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://timesofisrael dot com/gallant-says-pa-tied-palestinians-are-least-bad-option-for-gaza-rulers-is-lambasted-by-fellow-likud-ministers/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://twitter.com/khaliljeries/status/1768070254276554858?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q; https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1768264237745631448</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://t.me/hamasps/19751</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-president-abbas-appoints-new-prime-minister-palestinian-authority-2024-03-14/; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/who-is-mohammad-mustafa-man-who-could-be-next-palestinian-pm-2024-02-29/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://t.me/hamasps/19751</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://t.me/hamasps/19754</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://t.me/sarayaps/17562</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768534459693801946</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6019 ; https://t.me/alredalsrey/633; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6020 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6022 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://www.idf dot il/185904</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.idf dot il/185904 ; https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1768623192111972723?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-calls-for-confrontation-against-israel-in-jerusalem-b152e8f1; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50747; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-9-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-13-2024; https://t.me/hamasps/19738; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1735</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/police-gird-for-first-ramadan-friday-prayers-after-hamas-calls-to-defend-al-aqsa/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-calls-for-confrontation-against-israel-in-jerusalem-b152e8f1</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://t.me/hamasps/19738; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1735; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50747</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://t.me/mmirleb/2647; https://t.me/mmirleb/2649; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768623087136678390; https://t.me/mmirleb/2664; https://t.me/QudsN/382164; https://t.me/mmirleb/2658; https://t.me/mmirleb/2660; https://t.me/mmirleb/2662; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1768685395099689403; https://t.me/mmirleb/2666; https://t.me/mmirleb/2668</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/14/iran-weapons-hezbollah-israel-gaza/; https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/jun/08/us-sanctions-iranian-shipping-companies</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/14/iran-weapons-hezbollah-israel-gaza/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-7-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://ctc.westpoint.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CTC-SENTINEL-032019.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2024/03/15/10972; https://euphratespost dot net/طائرة-مسيّرة-تدمر-شحنة-للميليشيات-الإ; https://nahermedia dot net/تدمير-شاحـ-ـنة-أسـ-ـلحة-للميـ-ـليشيات-ا; https://www.syriahr.com/en/327969/; https://x.com/SteeleSyAA/status/1768523030894870536</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://euphratespost dot net/طائرة-مسيّرة-تدمر-شحنة-للميليشيات-ال</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1753865730531979294; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1759593684704600324</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://en.irna dot ir/news/85418518</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://www.ft.com/content/89b01990-7657-45ea-baaa-1f214b40f1cb</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://en.irna dot ir/news/85418518</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://apnews.com/article/russian-iran-ballistic-missiles-ukraine-f12dc454b04f7cbe671d2c401e31390c ; https://www.wsj.com/world/g-7-threatens-new-sanctions-if-iran-provides-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-8b1a3242</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-air-could-be-banned-europe-if-tehran-sends-missiles-russia-us-warns-2024-03-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://apnews.com/article/russian-iran-ballistic-missiles-ukraine-f12dc454b04f7cbe671d2c401e31390c ; https://www.wsj.com/world/g-7-threatens-new-sanctions-if-iran-provides-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-8b1a3242</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://www.qna dot org.qa/en/newsbulletins/2024-03/14/0055-Minister-of-Interior-Meets-Iranian-Ambassador</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://farsnews dot ir/news/14000714000232 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.irna dot ir/news/84983577;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">https://asriran dot com/fa/news/904901</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-10-2023 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-09-18/qatar-confirms-6-billion-in-unfrozen-iranian-funds-transferred-to-doha-triggering-u-s-iran-prisoner-swap-source</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://www.fiep.org/member-forces/qatar/#:~:text=Establishment%20Law.,to%20His%20highness%20the%20Emir</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://www.gco.gov dot qa/en/ministries/minister-of-interior/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20he%20was%20appointed,of%20Interior%20in%20March%202023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3707839/march-14-red-sea-update/ ; https://twitter.com/uk_mto/status/1768488336212004955?s=61&t=RSg9nHp83qwaF3EFX58DoA ; https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1768615408066535687?s=61&t=RSg9nHp83qwaF3EFX58DoA ; https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-missile-ship-israel-hamas-war-de4870b543d62130df611017ce8ac0ef</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3707839/march-14-red-sea-update/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1768615408066535687?s=61&t=RSg9nHp83qwaF3EFX58DoA</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1768742685798506610</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1768742685798506610</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1768615408066535687?s=61&t=RSg9nHp83qwaF3EFX58DoA</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3707839/march-14-red-sea-update/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-at-a-un-security-council-briefing-on-yemen-18/ ; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/14/un-must-prevent-iranian-missiles-reaching-houthis-in-yemen-uk-and-us-say</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-at-a-un-security-council-briefing-on-yemen-18/ ; https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc14810.doc.htm</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://www.vimye.org/about</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://press.un.org/en/2015/sc11859.doc.htm</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3677794/centcom-intercepts-iranian-weapons-shipment-intended-for-houthis/ ; https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-at-a-un-security-council-briefing-on-yemen-18/</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-40422142282562928732024-03-14T22:33:00.007-04:002024-03-14T22:33:36.517-04:00Iran Update, March 14, 2024<p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Peter Mills, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Elizabeth Volynsky-Lauzon, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City on March 13 likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Hamas targeted the head and other members of the armed Dughmush clan amid local accusations that the clan stole humanitarian aid and cooperated with Israel.[2] The clan responded to the killing by vowing to retaliate and declaring Hamas members and positions as “legitimate target[s].”[3] Hamas denied reports that its forces killed the clan members.[4]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas has sought to reconstitute militarily and rebuild its governing authority in the northern Gaza Strip since Israeli forces reduced their presence there in December 2023. CTP-ISW has reported extensively on how Hamas fighters have infiltrated areas in the northern strip that Israeli forces previously cleared. Israeli Army Radio reported in January 2023 that the Israeli military establishment believes that Hamas is trying to restore its control over the civilian population in the northern Gaza Strip partly by rehabilitating local police there.[5] The Civil Police and the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry‘s Internal Security Forces both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.[6] The killing of the members of the Dughmush clan further demonstrates that Hamas fighters remain present in at least some areas of the northern strip.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas may be targeting political opposition as part of its effort to consolidate its power in the northern Gaza Strip. An Israeli academic reported that Hamas killed the Dughmush members after they expressed readiness to be part of a new administration in the Gaza Strip.[7] Tension between Hamas and the Dughmush clan is not unprecedented, as they have periodically clashed since Hamas took power in the Gaza Strip in 2007. The clan reportedly has affiliations with Salafi-jihadi groups as well as organized crime and arms trading in the Gaza Strip. Hamas reportedly warned Palestinians against cooperating with Israel earlier this week and that Hamas would treat those who did with “an iron fist.”[8] Hamas has a long history of violently suppressing political opposition in the Gaza Strip.[9]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas’ killing of the Dughmush clan members risks further eroding the security situation there as humanitarian aid enters the northern Gaza Strip. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 13 that “criminal gangs” and “ordinary civilians” are resorting to looting humanitarian aid.[10] He warned that lawlessness, insecurity, and desperation remain hurdles to delivering aid to Gazans. Intercommunal violence within the Gaza Strip between Hamas and clans, such as the Dughmush, could further threaten the secure delivery of aid into the area. These challenges could become particularly acute if Hamas and its rivals compete with one another to control the flow of aid in the strip. Israel is currently deciding whether to open a crossing directly into the northern Gaza Strip based on as assessment of how securely the convoys can reach civilians.[11]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Gaza Strip:</strong> Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in several sectors of Khan Younis.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Political Developments: </strong>Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas appointed the current chairman of the Palestinian Investment Fund, Mohammad Mustafa, as the new PA prime minister. Abbas tasked him with forming a new government that will seek to rebuild the Gaza Strip after the war.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>The Houthi movement launched an anti-ship ballistic missile targeting an unspecified vessel in the Red Sea. US CENTCOM reported that US forces destroyed four drones and a surface-to-air missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq: </strong>Head of the Iraqi National Masses Party Ahmed Abdullah al Jubouri nominated Badr Mahmoud al Fahal for governor of Salah ad Din Province.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2014%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2014%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF 162nd Division engaged Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip on March 14. </strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) attacked a nearby Palestinian militia cell with tank fire.[12] The IDF Air Force separately conducted an airstrike targeting a Palestinian fighter.[13]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in several sectors of Khan Younis on March 14. </strong>The IDF 7th Brigade (36th Division) located a three-man Palestinian militia cell in Bani Suheila, eastern Khan Younis, and directed tank fire targeting them.[14] The IDF LOTAR counterterrorism unit conducted “special and targeted” missions in Khan Younis and raided several Hamas-affiliated military buildings.[15] The IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) raided buildings and destroyed rocket launchers in Hamad, northern Khan Younis.[16] The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which is a leftist-Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war, clashed with Israeli forces in Hamad.[17] Israeli forces initially expanded clearing operations to the neighborhood on March 3.[18]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Israeli Army Radio cited an IDF lieutenant colonel on March 14 saying that Israeli forces have engaged “high-quality” members of Hamas’ elite Nukhba force in Hamad.[19] The IDF officer highlighted that the Palestinian fighters are working in organized cells with a structured command system. He also noted that Israeli forces encountered the highest concentration of Palestinian snipers in Hamad. There have been at least three clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters daily since Israeli forces advanced into the neighborhood, which is a small part of Khan Younis.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF said on March 13 that it plans to move civilians from Rafah to “humanitarian enclaves” in the central Gaza Strip before any Israeli offensive into Rafah.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>There are approximately 1.4 million displaced Palestinian civilians currently in Rafah.[21] The Israeli government has been clear on its intentions to expand clearing operations into the Central and Rafah Governorates.[22] The IDF spokesperson said that Israel would work with the international community to provide civilians with food, temporary housing, and establish field hospitals in the “enclaves.” The spokesperson noted that Israel would advance into Rafah depending on ideal, unspecified conditions.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF confirmed on March 14 that it is preparing for the arrival of humanitarian aid via the maritime corridor to the Gazan coast.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The first ship of its kind left Cyprus on March 12, towing a barge containing food from the World Central Kitchen organization, funded by the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus.[24] The IDF said that the shipment is happening in coordination with the Israeli defense establishment and Defense Ministry.[25] Maxar published satellite imagery captured on March 14 that reveals the new jetty under construction on the coastline in southern Gaza City. The jetty is also north of the IDF-constructed road splitting the northern and central Gaza Strip.[26]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF said senior US military officials will visit Israel in the coming days to coordinate the construction and protection of a temporary pier to facilitate aid shipments into the Gaza Strip.[27] Israel said that they will discuss protecting the pier from potential Hamas attacks.[28] US CENTCOM announced on March 9 that a US Army logistics support vessel departed from Virginia to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with the first load of equipment to establish a temporary pier to deliver humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip.[29]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas appointed the current chairman of the Palestinian Investment Fund, Mohammad Mustafa, as the new PA prime minister on March 14. Abbas tasked him with forming a new government that will seek to rebuild the Gaza Strip after the war.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30]</strong> Mustafa is a longtime adviser to Abbas and is also tasked with facing mounting pressure to reform the PA.[31] Former PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced his cabinet’s resignation in late February amid calls for leadership changes.[32] His replacement follows the PA and Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) indicating that they may reform themselves and are trying to unify Palestinian factions, including Hamas.[33] An unspecified source with direct knowledge stated that Qatar urged Abbas to appoint Hamas-accepted individuals to the new government, which Abbas apparently rejected.[34]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An Arab-Israeli citizen killed one individual and injured three others, including an IDF soldier, in a stabbing attack in southern Israel.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF shot and killed the perpetrator.[36] Israeli media identified the perpetrator as Fadi Abu Altyaf, who lived in the Gaza Strip until moving to Israel in 2019.[37] A Palestinian militia praised Altyaf for his attack, although no militia has claimed affiliation with him at the time of this writing.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF reported that Palestinian fighters attempted to launch mortars into Israeli territory from the central Gaza Strip targeting a town in southern Israel on March 13.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39]</strong> The fighters targeted Nahal Oz in southern Israel, and but the mortars fell near the Gaza Strip.[40] The IDF identified the Palestinian militia cell responsible for the attack in the northern Gaza Strip and directed an airstrike targeting them.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 13.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41]</strong> PIJ and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades detonated IEDs and fired small arms targeting Israeli forces who were conducting raids in Nablus on March 13.[42] Israel forces detained 13 wanted individuals as part of a "brigade operation to counter terrorism in Jericho" in the West Bank.[43]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas reiterated its call for Palestinians and Israeli Arabs to “defend” al Aqsa Mosque ahead of the first Friday of Ramadan on March 15.[44] Hamas previously called on March 9 and 13 for Palestinians to escalate attacks targeting Israeli forces during Ramadan.[45] Hamas encouraged Palestinians to, “remain there for days and nights.”[46]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 13.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Hezbollah claimed that it conducted attacks targeting Israeli military positions in al Malikiyah and on Karantina hill along the Israel-Lebanon border.[48] Hezbollah also claimed attacks targeting two Israeli military positions in Shebaa Farms.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Air Force intercepted near Kafr Blum a drone that an unspecified actor launched from Lebanon into Israel.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched a drone targeting the IDF Palmachim airbase on March 13.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51]</strong> The group released a video showing the launch of at least one drone.[52] CTP-ISW cannot verify whether the attack occurred or struck its intended target. Neither Israeli media or officials have acknowledged any attack at the time of this writing.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2014%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2014%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2014%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Head of the Iraqi National Masses Party Ahmed Abdullah al Jubouri nominated Badr Mahmoud al Fahal for governor of Salah ad Din Province on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Fahal is a member of the Accountability and Justice Commission that the Shia Coordination Framework — a coalition of loosely aligned pro-Iranian political parties – has weaponized to sideline political opposition.[54] The National Masses Party won five of the 15 provincial seats in Salah ad Din Province.[55]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi President Abdul Rashid previously rejected Jubouri for governor of Salah ad Din Province in February 2024, citing a 2008 law, which bars convicted felons from holding office.[56] Jubouri was convicted in 2017 for abusing his role as governor of Salah ad Din Province, misusing federal funds, and appropriating lands for personal use.[57] The US Treasury Department sanctioned Jubouri in 2019 for corruption, including the misappropriation of funds and government resources for personal benefit.[58] The Treasury Department reported that Jubouri has also “accomodat[ed]” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to secure personal interests.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian state media claimed on March 14 that the Houthis successfully tested an unspecified hypersonic missile and that the group is preparing to use this missile as part of its attacks targeting international shipping and Israel.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59]</strong> The Houthis have used ballistic missiles that travel at hypersonic speeds, defined as greater than Mach 5, but it is extremely unlikely that the Houthis possess working hypersonic glide vehicles.[60]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Houthi movement launched an anti-ship ballistic missile targeting an unspecified vessel in the Red Sea on March 13.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61]</strong> US CENTCOM reported that the missile did not impact any ship or cause damage or injuries.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CENTCOM reported on March 13 that US forces destroyed four drones and a surface-to-air missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Houthi-controlled media claimed that the United States and United Kingdom conducted four airstrikes targeting Bayt al Faqih, near Hudaydah, and Hudaydah International Airport on March 14.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Financial Times reported that the United States held secret, Oman-brokered talks with Iran in January 2024 to convince Tehran to pressure the Houthis to stop attacking ships in the Red Sea.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and acting Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley led the American delegation. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Ali Bagheri Kani led the Iranian delegation. Iranian state media denied the report, citing an “informed” source.[65]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_61.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_61.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://twitter.com/khaliljeries/status/1768070254276554858?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q; https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1768264237745631448</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/hamas-said-to-execute-leader-of-gazas-powerful-doghmush-clan/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1768264237745631448</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://t.me/QudsN/381851</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1747181096251314253</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/civil_police/; https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/internal_security_force/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://twitter.com/khaledabutoameh/status/1768258954654540203?s=46&t=Pd9EQ5ncm-TX8rDDEiGN2Q</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/hamas-said-to-execute-leader-of-gazas-powerful-doghmush-clan/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hamas-35; https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/10/23/two-authorities-one-way-zero-dissent/arbitrary-arrest-and-torture-under</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://www.foxnews.com/world/blinken-says-criminal-gangs-ordinary-civilians-looting-humanitarian-aid-gaza-doesnt-mention-hamas?msockid=01068cc5f2bf627d3d9f9fdff30863de</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1767662789701562382; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/aid-trucks-trickle-into-northern-gaza-as-israel-opens-new-route-af0f5496?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-uses-new-land-route-israel-reach-northern-gaza-2024-03-12/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768165380135018893</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768165380135018893</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768165385348468805</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://www.idf dot il/185728</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768165382538301552</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4168</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188165642805459; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-3-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1768175154184544636</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-14-24/h_020c4f14788630e2d5364ba35e9339a9</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-14-24/h_020c4f14788630e2d5364ba35e9339a9</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.jpost dot com/israel-hamas-war/article-791781; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1759247993973223588</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://www.idf dot il/185673</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-preparing-for-arrival-of-first-humanitarian-aid-shipment-from-cyprus-to-gaza/; https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1767307821995999595; https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1767463205733798148</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://www.idf dot il/185673</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1768297568075731330</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/under-pressure-to-stave-off-famine-israel-vows-to-boost-aid-into-gaza-48c25c73?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/under-pressure-to-stave-off-famine-israel-vows-to-boost-aid-into-gaza-48c25c73?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766623783857836091</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-president-abbas-appoints-new-prime-minister-palestinian-authority-2024-03-14/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-president-abbas-appoints-new-prime-minister-palestinian-authority-2024-03-; https://apnews.com/article/palestinians-politics-israel-abbas-mohammad-mustafa-d7907aa06db3d6be6f8d59cc29e57897</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://www.axios.com/2024/02/26/palestinian-authority-shtayyeh-resignation-abbas-gaza</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-26-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/14/abbas-palestinian-prime-minister-mohammed-mustafa</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768269983371431972?s=20; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768359973723988159; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768362021295407404; https://timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/suspect-in-stabbing-attack-identified-as-israeli-citizen-who-grew-up-in-gaza/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768249447325012432</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1768269983371431972?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4366</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768165372304220265</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1768180747116986831</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/QudsN/381646 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6014 ; https://t.me/QudsN/381669 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6016</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://t.me/QudsN/381669 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6016 ; https://t.me/QudsN/381667</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768232446678503453</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50747</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-9-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-13-2024 ; https://t.me/hamasps/19738 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1735</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50747 ; DNGTS: https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-03-14/ty-article-live/report-u-s-would-back-israeli-op-against-hamas-leaders-in-rafah-if-idf-does-not-invade/0000018e-3aad-d823-adaf-7baf11d50000?liveBlogItemId=863802718&utm_source=site&utm_medium=button&utm_campaign=live_blog_item#863802718</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/mmirleb/2632 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/47223 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/47225 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2642 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2644</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://t.me/mmirleb/2642 ; https://t.me/QudsN/381855 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2644</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://t.me/C_Military1/47223 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2636 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/47225 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2638</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1768227899184697716</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/990</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/991</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://www.shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%A8%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86-%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%AD%D9%84-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%A8-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B8-%D8%B5%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.facebook.com/ba.fahal/?locale=ar_AR</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://ihec dot iq/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADN071.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm735</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm735</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://ria dot ru/20240314/khusity-1932840663.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11459.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1768104100397502649</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1768104100397502649</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://twitter.com/alsyasiah/status/1768278732819538060?s=61&t=tS7KiTfNB1qn4604aaSXmQ ; https://t.me/QudsN/381839 ; https://t.me/QudsN/381872</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://www.ft.com/content/89b01990-7657-45ea-baaa-1f214b40f1cb</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/24/3054963/</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-75853999261199191312024-03-14T21:25:00.002-04:002024-03-14T21:25:08.256-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 14, 2024, 8:15pm ET</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:00pm ET on March 14. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.”</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Medvedev’s demands are not novel but rather represent the Kremlin’s actual intentions for Ukraine — intentions that leave no room for negotiations for purposes other than setting the precise terms of Ukraine’s complete capitulation. </strong>Medvedev begins the “peace plan” by rhetorically stripping Ukraine of its sovereignty, referring to it as a “former” country and placing the name Ukraine in quotation marks. Medvedev laid out the seven points of his “peace formula,” which he sardonically described as “calm,” “realistic,” “humane,” and “soft.”[2] The seven points include: Ukraine’s recognition of its military defeat, complete and unconditional Ukrainian surrender, and full “demilitarization”; recognition by the entire international community of Ukraine’s “Nazi character” and the “denazification” of Ukraine’s government; a United Nations (UN) statement stripping Ukraine of its status as a sovereign state under international law, and a declaration that any successor states to Ukraine will be forbidden to join any military alliances without Russian consent; the resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and immediate provisional parliamentary elections; Ukrainian reparations to be paid to Russia; official recognition by the interim parliament to be elected following the resignation of Ukraine’s current government that all Ukrainian territory is part of Russia and the adoption of a “reunification” act bringing Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation; and finally the dissolution of this provisional parliament and UN acceptance of Ukraine’s “reunification” with Russia.[3]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The tone of Medvedev’s post is deliberately sardonic, and the calls he is making appear extreme, but every one of the seven points in Medvedev’s “peace formula” are real and central pieces of the Kremlin’s ideology and stated war aims and justifications — Medvedev just simplified and synthesized them into a single brutal Telegram post. The first two of the seven points call for the complete military defeat, disarmament, “demilitarization,” and “denazification” of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the full “demilitarization” (stripping Ukraine of all its military and self-defense capabilities) and “denazification” (complete regime change) as Russia’s main goals in Ukraine when initially announcing the invasion on February 24, 2022. Putin and other Kremlin officials have frequently re-emphasized these goals in the subsequent two years of the war.[4] Medvedev’s calls for the resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and the creation of a new provisional government are calls for regime change simply made with more specificity about the methods. The demand that any successor state to Ukraine be forbidden to join military alliances without Russian permission is a call for Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, a demand that Putin and other Kremlin officials reiterate regularly.[5]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Putin established the principles that align the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine with Medvedev’s seven points in Putin’s 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” Putin claimed in that article that Ukrainians and Russians are historically one united people who were violently and unjustly separated by external nefarious forces.[6] Putin used this essay to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and claims over its own political, social, historical, linguistic, and cultural development — all suggestions that underpin Medvedev’s calls to dissolve Ukraine as a legal entity and fully absorb it into the Russian Federation. Putin and other Russian officials have long set informational conditions to define Ukraine as an integral and inseparable part of Russian territory and set Russia’s goal in Ukraine as “reuniting” Ukrainian territories with their supposed historic motherland.[7] <strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Medvedev’s “peace formula” makes explicit and brutal what Putin and the Kremlin have long demanded in somewhat more euphemistic phrases: that peace for Russia means the end of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent state of any sort with any borders. Those advocating for pressing Ukraine to enter negotiations with Russia would do well to reckon with this constantly reiterated Russian position.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to the frontline for a long time have started rotations.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Syrskyi stated that these unit rotations, during which deployed units will be replaced at the front with fresher units, will help stabilize the operational situation but did not specify where along the frontline Ukrainian forces were conducting the rotations in order to preserve Ukrainian operational security.[9] Ukrainian forces would likely be unable to conduct significant rotations in areas where the Ukrainian command assesses the situation is difficult or at risk of a Russian breakthrough. The reported beginning of Ukrainian rotations suggests that the Ukrainian command believes that the situation on whatever unspecified sector(s) of the frontline where the rotations will occur has stabilized sufficiently for Ukrainian troops to rotate.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations. </strong>Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on March 14 that the Russian military command is committing tactical and operational reserves to Russian offensive efforts in the Lyman direction, near Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk Oblast to prevent Ukrainian forces from further stabilizing the frontline in these areas.[10] Mashovets stated that many of these reserves were meant to exploit an envisioned Russian breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses, not necessarily to support current Russian offensive operations against stabilizing Ukrainian defensive positions.[11] Mashovets stated that Russian forces recently committed additional elements of the 3rd Army Corps (AC) to fighting southwest of Bakhmut; an unspecified reserve regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) and the 10th Tank Regiment (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC) to fighting southwest of Donetsk City; and elements of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA]) to the Lyman direction.[12] Mashovets added that Russian forces still possess appropriate reserves to further intensify offensive operations but that these reserves would likely be inadequate to permit the Russian military to collapse Ukrainian defenses.[13] Russian forces have previously struggled to achieve more than gradual marginal tactical gains in Ukraine since mid-2022, and the introduction of tactical or even limited operational reserves in itself does not change Russian prospects for operationally significant gains because Russian forces have not yet demonstrated the capability to conduct sound mechanized maneuvers to take large swaths of territory rapidly.[14]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian ability to make significant gains is still dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, and continued delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of operationally significant Russian gains in the long run.</strong> Ukrainian materiel shortages resulting from delays in Western security assistance may be making the current Ukrainian frontline more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.[15] Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have proven that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukrainian forces with sufficient Western security assistance would be able to stabilize the current frontline.[16] Difficult weather and terrain conditions in spring 2024 will likely constrain effective mechanized maneuver on both sides of the line and further limit Russian capabilities to make significant tactical advances while the ground is still muddy.[17] Russian forces are likely committing tactical and operational reserves to sustain the tempo of their offensive operations to press current advantages against ill-provisioned Ukrainian forces before ground conditions slow the overall operational tempo in Ukraine. Russian forces may also seek to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations through spring 2024 regardless of difficult weather and terrain conditions in an effort to exploit Ukrainian materiel shortages before promised Western security assistance arrives in Ukraine. Russian forces are reportedly preparing for a new offensive effort in late May or summer 2024, and Western security assistance to Ukraine will likely play a significant role in determining the prospects of that effort.[18]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reported Russian transfers of tactical reserves to new areas of the frontline demonstrate Russia’s likely ability to dynamically balance and reweight its offensive efforts. </strong>Mashovets’ reporting about the transfer of elements of the DNR’s 10th Tank Regiment to southwest of Donetsk City and elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army’s (GTA) 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment to the Lyman direction are notable as these elements were likely reserves in other directions where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations.[19] Elements of the 10thTank Regiment participated in the seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February and appear to have rested and likely partially reconstituted in the past month, and the commitment of these elements southwest of Donetsk City instead of west of Avdiivka suggests that the Russian command does not want to intensify the tempo of offensive operations near Avdiivka at the expense of a decreased operational tempo southwest of Donetsk City. Russian forces apparently reconstituting in the Avdiivka area can likely allow Russian forces to intensify efforts to push further west of Avdiivka at a moment of the Russian military’s choosing, and the Russian military command may have decided that this potential reserve is sufficient without the elements of the 10th Tank Regiment.[20]Elements of the 1st GTA have been responsible for Russian offensive operations northwest of Svatove since the start of the Russian winter-spring 2024 offensive effort on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis in January 2024, and the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment was likely meant as a reserve to support those offensive operations.[21] The transfer of the elements of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment to the Lyman direction may suggest that Russian forces are currently prioritizing advances in the Lyman direction over advances elsewhere along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. These tactical transfers are relatively minor but are examples of the way in which the Russian military command can choose to increase or decrease commitment to operations anywhere along the line at will due to the operational flexibility offered by Russia’s possession of the theater-wide initiative.[22]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">British outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Times </em>reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Times </em>reported that British officials believed that Russian jammed the satellite signal of a Royal Air Force (RAF) Dassault 900LX Falcon jet transporting Shapps, his staff, and select journalists back to the UK after Shapps observed NATO Steadfast Defender exercises in Poland. The signal jamming reportedly impacted GPS signals for about 30 minutes as the jet flew near Kaliningrad, also preventing passengers from accessing the internet on their mobile phones. Data from the GPSJAM GPS interference tracking site show that much of northern and central Poland and the Baltic Sea region experienced high levels of GPS jamming on March 13.[24] ISW previously reported that widespread GPS disruptions across the Baltic region and much of Poland in late December 2023 and early January 2024 may have been linked to Russian electronic warfare (EW) activity in Kaliningrad.[25] It is unclear if Russian forces deliberately targeted Shapps’ plane, but considering the recent rates of GPS interference in this region that have been likely linked to Russian EW activity, Russia could well have targeted the RAF jet for informational and political effects. Russia may have been reacting to Shapps’ recent announcement extending the deployment of British Sky Saber air defense systems in Poland through the end of the year, which pro-Kremlin milbloggers amplified likely as part of the information operation to portray the West as threatening Russia.[26]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions will likely force the Kremlin to choose between paying a reputational or resource cost in responding to the incursions. </strong>Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), continued to claim that likely elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) continued attacks on Russian border settlements, primarily Tetkino, Kursk Oblast and Kozinka and Spordaryushino, Belgorod Oblast on March 14, but that Russian border guards repelled the attacks.[27] The milbloggers claimed that these likely RDK and LSR forces conducted a low-altitude helicopter landing near Kozinka in the evening and that Russian forces continued defending against the incursion.[28] A prominent Russian milblogger criticized the Russian military command because Russian border regions cannot “breathe free” in the third year of the war and claimed that “someone” committed a “strategic miscalculation” by deciding to withdraw Russian forces all the way back to the Russian border when withdrawing from northern Ukraine in the first months of the war, making the border the frontline.[29] The milblogger called for the Russian military to implement “corrective measures” that would somehow push the frontline at least 40 kilometers from the Russian border and into Ukraine. Another milblogger criticized Russian forces for not establishing barricades in certain border settlements to prevent attacks from Ukrainian territory.[30] These criticisms highlight the Kremlin’s current dilemma in light of such cross-border incursions. The Kremlin must balance between the reputational cost of accepting that pro-Ukrainian forces will sometimes be able to conduct minimally effective cross-border raids into Russia while conserving its military resources for use in Ukraine and the resource cost of allocating additional forces and means to border security to reassure the Russian populace at the expense of its military operations against Ukraine. Russia previously allocated Rosgvardia and some Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz elements to border security following May 2023 cross-border incursions without meaningfully impacting its military operations in Ukraine and could feasibly chose to make the same choice now.[31]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin must choose a balance between acceptable reputational and resource costs, but the Kremlin may not suffer as high a reputational cost in 2024 as it did in 2023 due to ongoing censorship efforts</strong>. The Russian military command’s failure to protect Russian border regions from Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian attacks has become a point of neuralgia for the Russian information space, and this neuralgia reached a boiling point resulting from RDK and LSR raids into Belgorod Oblast in late May and early June 2023.[32] Russian ultranationalists heavily criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) failure to protect Russians within Russia, including criticizing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov by name.[33] This throughline is notably similar to that of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters when Prigozhin launched his armed rebellion and march on Moscow soon after these raids on June 24, 2023, intending to unseat Shoigu and Gerasimov for continued military failures that traded Russian lives and military competency for personal gain.[34] The Kremlin has since cracked down on the Russian information space’s complaints against the MoD, actively censoring certain fringe and extreme milbloggers through arrests or other measures, encouraging self-censorship and compliance among the remaining milbloggers, and disbanding the Wagner Group following the rebellion.[35] The Russian milblogger response to the March 2024 border raid thus far is relatively neutral compared to its response to previous border raids, indicating that the Kremlin’s efforts to directly and indirectly censor the ultranationalist community has tempered milbloggers’ willingness to respond publicly to military failures. The milbloggers who criticized the Russian response on March 12–14 did not place blame directly on the MoD, Shoigu, Gerasimov, or other prominent military figures by name, title, or epithet, instead writing in the passive voice or blaming a vague “someone.”[36] The majority of the Russian milblogger responses criticized Ukraine and the RDK and LSR rather than the Russian military command and praised the Russian forces defending against the attacks.[37]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.” Medvedev’s demands are not novel but rather represent the Kremlin’s actual intentions for Ukraine—intentions that leave no room for negotiations for purposes other than setting the precise terms of Ukraine’s complete capitulation.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to frontline for a long time have started rotations.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian ability to make significant gains is still dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, and continued delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of operationally significant Russian gains in the long run.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reported Russian transfers of tactical reserves to new areas of the frontline demonstrate Russia’s likely ability to dynamically balance and reweight their offensive efforts.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">British outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Times </em>reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions will likely force the Kremlin to choose between paying a reputational or resource cost in responding to the incursions.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin must choose a balance between acceptable reputational and resource costs, but the Kremlin may not suffer as high a reputational cost in 2024 as it did in 2023 due to ongoing censorship efforts.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements across the theater on March 14.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian regional governments have reportedly increased economic incentives for Russian volunteers to sign contracts for military service.</strong></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 14, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka and Tabaivka; west of Svatove near Pershotravneve; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[38] Russian sources claimed that “pro-Russian partisans” conducted arson attacks against Ukrainian positions near Petropavlivka, Podoly, and Kurylivka (all northeast of Kupyansk), and near Kivsharivka and Novoosynove (southeast of Kupyansk) and forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from some limited positions.[39] ISW has not seen any visual evidence of such purported arson attacks, nor of any Ukrainian withdrawals from these areas. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces resumed offensive efforts on the left (north) bank of the Siversky Donets River, in the Serebryanske forest area, and towards Hryhorivka (all southwest of Kreminna).[40] Mashovets also noted that elements of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) are operating in this area, meaning that the Russian military command laterally redeployed them away from the Kupyansk direction.[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Bakhmut on March 14, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional fighting continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and east of Chasiv Yar; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka; and south of Bakhmut near Niu York.[42] Positional fighting also continued northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske.[43] Elements of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division (3rd Army Corps), including its 1008th, 1194th, and 1442nd motorized rifle regiments and its 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, are reportedly operating near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (both southwest of Bakhmut).[44] Elements of the Russian 200th Naval Infantry Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) are reportedly operating near Bohdanivka.[45]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced further into Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) amid continued positional fighting west of Avdiivka on March 14. Geolocated footage published on March 13 and 14 shows that Russian forces advanced along Myr and Kazberov streets in central Berdychi.[46] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced further into Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), though ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[47] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi and Novobakhmutivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka, Tonenke, and Semenivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske.[48] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Nevelske despite the Russian Ministry of Defense‘s (MoD) claim of capturing the whole settlement on March 12.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="702" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 14, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed on March 13 that Russian forces marginally advanced north of Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City), but ISW has observed no visual confirmation of this claim.[51] Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Volodymyrivka (southeast of Vuhledar on the T0509 Vuhledar-Volnovakha-Mariupol highway).[52] A Ukrainian officer operating in the area stated that Russian forces have concentrated roughly 50,000 personnel in the Novopavlivka direction (west of Donetsk City through the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) and transferred tactical reserves to the area after capturing Avdiivka, though the precise geographical span that the Ukrainian officer referred to is unclear.[53] Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) continue to operate near Krasnohorivka, and elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and Eastern Military District [EMD] operate near Vuhledar.[54]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="788" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 14. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported positional fighting south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske; southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Novodonetske and south of Zolota Nyva; and southeast of Hulyaipole north of Novoselivka.[55] Elements of the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) continue to operate near Velyka Novosilka.[56]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that Russian forces intensified offensive operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts (parts of which comprise the Tavriisk direction from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhia Oblast) on the morning of March 14.[50] Lykhovyi stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces participated in 13 simultaneous combat engagements as of 0800 local time on March 14, including 12 that were still ongoing in Donetsk Oblast and one in Zaporizhia Oblast.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="667" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Geolocated footage posted on March 14 shows that Russian forces recently advanced west of Verbove (east of Robotyne) in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[57] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to counterattack northwest of Verbove but were unsuccessful.[58] Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove.[59] Elements of the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) are continuing to operate in the Zaporizhia direction.[60]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="621" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="616" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) with drones on March 14.[61] Kremlin newswire <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TASS </em>posted pictures that allegedly show a crater in the ground by the ZNPP following the purported attack.[62] Russian-appointed ZNPP head Yuri Chernichuk stated that the alleged attack did not cause any physical harm to the ZNPP or its employees.[63] Russian sources frequently accuse Ukrainian forces or acting irresponsibly around the ZNPP in an attempt to paint the Russian occupation of the plant as legitimate and safe and undermine Ukraine’s legitimate concerns and legal claims to the ZNPP.[64]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful raid across the Dnipro River on March 13.[65] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance group that attempted to land on the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge, forcing the group to retreat to their original east (left) bank positions.[66] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces conduct frequent raids along the Dnipro River using small boats but suffer heavy losses when trying to maneuver between islands on the river.[67] Limited positional engagements continued in east bank Kherson Oblast.[68] A Russian milblogger complained that heavy Ukrainian cluster munition and drone use are inhibiting Russian forces’ ability to take new positions in Krynky.[69]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2014%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 36 Shahed-136/131 drones at Ukraine overnight on March 13 to 14, 22 of which Ukrainian air defenses destroyed.[70] Russian sources claimed that the Shahed strike targeted radio towers and communications equipment in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and a metallurgical plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[71]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian regional governments have reportedly increased economic incentives for Russian volunteers to sign contracts for military service. Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii </em>reported on March 14 that Russian regional governments have increased one-time payments for signing a contract by a factor one and a half, or 225,000 rubles ($2,460), on average.[72] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii </em>noted that Astrakhan and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts offer 500,000 rubles ($5,465) for signing a contract whereas Moscow Oblast offers 800,000 rubles ($8,744), suggesting that there is wide variance of economic incentives by Russian federal subject.[73]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian officials continue to seize on foreign volunteers fighting with Ukrainian forces to falsely cast the war in Ukraine as an international confrontation with the West and neighboring countries. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released an infographic on March 14 claiming to detail the number of foreign “mercenaries” who have served with Ukrainian forces and the number who have died in Ukraine since the start of the of the full-scale invasion.[74] The MoD claimed that Polish, Georgian, American, British, Romanian, German, and French citizens represent the majority of foreign volunteers fighting with Ukrainian forces.[75] The Russian military has increasingly coerced migrants living in Russia and other foreigners from abroad to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine.[76]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials continue efforts to portray Russia’s March 17 presidential election as free and fair to legitimize Putin’s assured next term as president.[77] Russian Central Election Committee (CEC) Chairperson Ella Pamfilova claimed that unspecified actors are attempting to prevent Russians living abroad from voting, and this claim is likely a part of an information operation alleging that the West is trying to discredit Russia’s presidential election.[78]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Belarusian Security Council Deputy Secretary Major General Alexander Neverovsky reiterated on March 14 that Belarus does not intend to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Neverovsky stated to Belarusian border guards that Belarus does not “need” the war in Ukraine despite attempts to “drag” Belarus into the war.[79] ISW continues to assess that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine and will likely continue to support Russia’s war effort through military production, training, and sanctions evasion schemes.[80]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_60.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_60.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/464</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/464</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/464</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://isw.pub/UkrWar121423; https://isw.pub/UkrWar040723; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022823</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://isw.pub/UkrWar122823; https://isw.pub/UkrWar121423</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66181</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://t.me/osirskiy/624 ; https://t.me/osirskiy/622</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://t.me/osirskiy/624 ; https://t.me/osirskiy/622</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1705</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1705</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1705</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021824</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021324%C2%A0; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021824</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-electronic-attack-grant-shapps-plane-qltjc6gqg ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/14/rossiya-predpolozhitelno-glushila-signal-gps-na-samolete-ministra-oborony-velikobritanii ; https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/russia-believed-have-jammed-signal-uk-defence-ministers-plane-source-2024-03-14/; https://archive dot is/gz20s</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://gpsjam.org/?lat=53.56127&lon=20.35649&z=4.8&date=2024-03-13</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://isw.pub/UkrWar011824</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://t.me/rybar/58165; https://t.me/pl_syrenka/8283; https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1767931765996339493</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://t.me/mod_russia/36608; https://t.me/mod_russia/36613; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/14963; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/14970; https://t.me/rybar/58160; https://t.me/rybar/58155; https://t.me/rybar/58154; https://t.me/dva_majors/36650; https://t.me/bazabazon/25849; https://t.me/sashakots/45507; https://t.me/rybar/58161 https://t.me/astrapress/50891 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63633</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://t.me/dva_majors/36743; https://t.me/dva_majors/36746; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63706; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63702 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8295; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15638; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116452; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54756; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54753; https://t.me/milinfolive/118286</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54729</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://t.me/dva_majors/36721; https://t.me/Alekhin_Telega/9715</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20February%207%2C%202024%28PDF%29.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-15-2023;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-21-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-31-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-21-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-28-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-30-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%204%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54729; https://t.me/dva_majors/36721; https://t.me/Alekhin_Telega/9715; https://t.me/dva_majors/36746; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63706; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63702 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8295</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://t.me/sashakots/45486 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45502; https://t.me/epoddubny/19324; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8175; https://t.me/dva_majors/36404; https://t.me/rusich_army/13573; https://t.me/rybar/58086; https://t.me/dva_majors/36388</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36608; https://t.me/mod_russia/36613; https://t.me/wargonzo/18727; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17596; https://t.me/z_arhiv/26280</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116447 ; https://t.me/dillfrash/32952</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/wargonzo/18727; https://t.me/mod_russia/36608; https://t.me/mod_russia/36615</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1704 (Klishchiivka and Andriivka)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63635 (Bohdanivka)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://t.me/ssternenko/26265; https://t.me/aerial_reconnaissance25/29; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12253 ;https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/7253;https://t.me/brygada47/559; https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/7249; https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1768180210418020436?s=20; https://x.com/giK1893/status/1768205160063402479?s=20 ; https://x.com/PauliusZaleckas/status/1768202987770405057?s=20; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4755; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=358622880491410</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/z_arhiv/26270</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36608; https://t.me/mod_russia/36615; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8293; https://t.me/wargonzo/18727</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2024; https://t.me/wargonzo/18727</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/14/tak-ne-bulo-vzhe-duzhe-davno-v-osuv-tavriya-rozpovily-pro-natysk-protyvnyka/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://t.me/rybar/58142</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://suspilne dot media/705462-tam-spravzne-peklo-sturmi-vidbuvautsa-postijno-oficer-legionu-svoboda-pro-boi-na-novopavlivskomu-napramku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://t.me/nm_dnr/11974 (Krasnohorivka); https://t.me/voin_dv/7504 (Vuhledar)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/tass_agency/236465; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36609; https://t.me/mod_russia/36616; https://t.me/mod_russia/36607 ; https://t.me/basurin_e/9707</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://t.me/voin_dv/7499 (Velyka Novosilka)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/vog25ru/291; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4760</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8291</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/wargonzo/18727; https://t.me/vrogov/14712 ; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/20223221</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://t.me/rusich_army/13620</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://t.me/tass_agency/236425 ; https://t.me/vrogov/14721 ; https://t.me/vrogov/14718; https://t.me/rian_ru/235315; https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239549; https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239556; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8263; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63664 ; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/14672; https://t.me/tass_agency/236435</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://t.me/tass_agency/236435</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://t.me/tass_agency/236428</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://isw.pub/UkrWar012723; https://isw.pub/UkrWar070823; https://isw.pub/UkrWar070423</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7140; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/14/nataliya-gumenyuk-rozpovila-pro-bezuspishni-rejdy-voroga-na-chovnah-po-dnipru/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7140</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/14/nataliya-gumenyuk-rozpovila-pro-bezuspishni-rejdy-voroga-na-chovnah-po-dnipru/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7149; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0YrwRuteKbkUiKYSgSfBPvzHGpZ6Lfg9g7vMSHBLhs9j4JhZ6v42ZioZNDZaRLxMQl; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8284</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8284</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid035nGrhWbSEP2rxmJa2PJeAc6NrvUEDZj2wpWNC8fmGxcuUnvk1uTgVJ8d6GNoocjl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0XL3QJvHmufGhxXXpubqYDgEUDrb6kYppgNSZwTZSsRUDvuxAbLK6UgGXN58gvCnjl; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7146</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://t.me/milinfolive/118270; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8288</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://t.me/istories_media/5472</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://t.me/istories_media/5472</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://t.me/mod_russia/36619</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] https://t.me/mod_russia/36619</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] https://t.me/MID_Russia/36152 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/236427</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] https://t.me/tass_agency/236442 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/236441</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] https://www dot belta.by/society/view/neverovskij-nas-hotjat-vtjanut-v-vojnu-no-nam-ona-ne-nuzhna-621340-2024/; https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239622</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/20221211%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-13; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-14-2023</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-71469754499465883532024-03-13T22:18:00.007-04:002024-03-13T22:18:52.854-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong>Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong style="text-align: left;">March 13, 2024, 7:45pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a
computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this
data-heavy tool.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain
map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will
update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on March 13. ISW will
cover subsequent reports in the March 14 Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Ukrainian shortages of
ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision
of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front
line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various
sectors would indicate. Ukrainian prioritization of the sectors most
threatened by intensive Russian offensive operations could create
vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces may be able to exploit to
make sudden and surprising advances if Ukrainian supplies continue to
dwindle. Russia’s retention of the theater-wide initiative increases the
risks of such developments by letting the Russian military command
choose to increase or decrease operations anywhere along the line almost
at will.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">German outlet <em>Der Spiegel</em>
published interviews with unnamed Ukrainian commanders on March 12 who
stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations have to husband
ammunition and materiel because of the overall ammunition shortage and
that some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel can only
hold their current positions if Russian forces do not “attack with full
force.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi warned
that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deep into Ukrainian
formations in unspecified areas of the frontline.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian
forces are likely attempting to mitigate problems caused by ammunition
shortages by prioritizing the allocation of ammunition to sectors of the
front facing larger-scale Russian offensive operations. The lower
intensity of Russian offensive efforts against currently de-prioritized
sectors likely obscures the risks to Ukrainian forces in those areas
resulting from ammunition shortages. ISW continues to assess that
Russian forces have the theater-wide initiative and will be able to
determine the time, location, and scale of offensive operations so long
as they retain the initiative.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span>
Syrskyi’s and the Ukrainian commanders' statements suggest that an
intensification of Russian offensive operations in an area where
Ukrainian forces have not prioritized allocating already limited
ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and
destabilization along a previously stable sector of the frontline in a
short period of time. The current frontline is likely thus not stable,
and timely Western resourcing of Ukrainian troops is essential to
prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting an opportunity for a
breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
rate of Russian advance west of Avdiivka has recently slowed, although
Russian forces likely retain the capability to intensify offensive
operations in the area at a moment of their choosing. </strong>Russian
forces seized Avdiivka on February 17 after roughly four months of
attritional offensive efforts to take the settlement and proceeded to
maintain a relatively high tempo of offensive operations in the area to
exploit tactical opportunities initially offered by the Russian seizure
of the settlement.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
Russian forces made relatively quick tactical gains west of Avdiivka in
late February and aimed to push as far west as possible before
Ukrainian forces could establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate
defensive lines.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span>
Ukrainian forces appear to have slowed Russian advances along positions
near the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line in early March, however, despite
speculation that these positions would be insufficient to receive
oncoming Russian offensive operations.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
Russian forces likely sought to make the Russian Central Grouping of
Forces (comprised of mainly Central Military District [CMD] and Donetsk
People’s Republic [DNR] elements) the exploitation force to take
advantage of the seizure of Avdiivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span>
The Russian military command likely intends for CMD elements to
continue offensive efforts in the Avdiivka area in the near and medium
term.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
Central Grouping of Forces notably has yet to commit elements of select
formations in the area to offensive operations west of Avdiivka as far
as ISW has been able to observe.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span>
Russian President Vladimir Putin previously credited the 30th Motorized
Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], CMD); 35th, 55th, and 74th
motorized rifle brigades (all of the 41st CAA, CMD); 1st, 9th, and
114th motorized rifle brigades and 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment and
10th Tank Regiment (all of the 1st DNR Army Corps [AC]); and the 6th,
80th, and 239th tank regiments (all of the 90th Tank Division, 41st CAA,
CMD) with capturing Avdiivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span>
Elements of the 2nd CAA’s 15th and 21st motorized rifle brigades, the
DNR 1st AC’s 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the Russian “Veterany”
private military company (PMC) also heavily participated in Russian
offensive operations near Avdiivka beginning in October 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span>
ISW has observed reports of elements of all three of the 2nd CAA’s
brigades; elements of the 41st CAA’s 55th and 35th motorized rifle
brigades, and elements of the DNR’s 1st, 9th, 110th, and 114th motorized
rifle brigades attacking northwest, west, or southwest of Avdiivka
since February 17.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span>
ISW has not observed reports of any elements of the 90th Tank Division
committed to fighting following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka,
however, and Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on
March 2 that elements of the 90th Tank Division were reconstituting and
resting in Horlivka (northeast of Avdiivka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span>
Mashovets stated on March 2 that the Russian military command committed
elements of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade from reserve to offensive
operations west of Avdiivka, although ISW has not observed wider
subsequent reporting about the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade fighting in
the area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Elements
of the 90th Tank Division, the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade, the DNR’s
1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment and 10th Tank Regiment, and the
“Veterany” PMC likely represent a sizeable uncommitted operational
reserve that the Russian command can commit to continue and intensify
efforts to push west of Avdiivka. These elements likely suffered heavy
casualties in offensive operations between October 2023 and mid-February
2024, but a month or more of rest will likely allow Russian forces to
replenish these elements and restore their degraded combat capabilities
to the low-quality levels that Russian commanders appear willing to
accept. ISW previously assessed that the Russian offensive effort in the
Avdiivka area would eventually temporarily culminate at least until or
unless Russian forces reinforced their attacking elements.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <strong>The
Russian forces apparently reconstituting in the Avdiivka area can serve
as operational reserves and let Russian forces prevent the culmination
of their offensive operation and intensify efforts to push further west
of Avdiivka, if or when the Russian command chooses to do so.</strong></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="702" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></div></strong><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russia’s
theater-wide initiative in Ukraine will likely allow the Russian
military command to dynamically reprioritize offensive operations
throughout the frontline. </strong>The theater-wide initiative allows
Russia to determine the location, time, intensity, and requirements of
fighting along the frontline, and the flexibility this opportunity
provides will allow the Russian military command to reprioritize efforts
dynamically to take advantage of perceived opportunities occasioned by
Ukrainian materiel shortages or other factors.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span>
The reprioritization of offensive efforts and the commensurate transfer
of materiel and manpower to various areas of the front can result in
decreased offensive activity, operational pauses, or the temporary
culmination of offensive operations in the area from which attacking
forces are drawn. Substantial decreases in the tempo of offensive
operations, operational pauses, or outright culmination are typically
risky as they relieve pressure on defending forces and offer them
opportunities to counterattack to regain the initiative in that sector
of the frontline. The Russian military command may believe that delays
in Western security assistance and growing Ukrainian materiel shortages
will reduce these risks and allow Russian forces to reweight efforts
without significant risk anywhere in the theater. Russian forces will
continue to leverage the advantages of the theater-wide initiative in
Ukraine, and ISW assesses that it would be unwise for Ukraine to cede
this advantage to Russia for longer than is necessary, although
continuing and increasing shortages of materiel will likely leave
Ukraine with few choices.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Ukrainian
actors conducted large-scale drone strikes against energy
infrastructure and military assets within Russia on the night of March
12 to 13. </strong>Ukrainian outlets <em>Suspilne</em> and <em>RBC-Ukraine </em>reported
on March 13 that their Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) sources stated
that SBU agents conducted drone strikes against oil refineries in
Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad oblasts and military airfields in
Buturlinovka and Voronezh City, Voronezh Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span>
Ryazan Oblast Head Pavel Malkov confirmed that a drone struck the
Ryazan oil refinery, starting a fire, and footage shows a plume of smoke
rising from the oil refinery area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
At least three Ukrainian drones also targeted the Novoshakhtinsk oil
refinery in Rostov Oblast, reportedly causing the refinery to
temporarily stop operations.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span>
Some Russian sources additionally claimed that one drone struck a
Federal Security Service (FSB) regional building in Belgorod City, but
Russian opposition media noted that Russian state media later deleted
reports of this particular strike.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span>
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses
destroyed 58 drones on the night of March 12 to 13: 11 over Belgorod
Oblast; eight over Bryansk Oblast; 29 over Voronezh Oblast; eight over
Kursk Oblast; one over Leningrad Oblast; and one over Ryazan Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span>
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that Ukrainian
drones specifically targeted the Ryazannefteprodukt Rosneft refinery in
Ryazan Oblast, the Kirishi Petroleum Organic Synthesis (KINEF) refinery
in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov
Oblast, but claimed that Russian air defense and electronic warfare (EW)
systems destroyed and neutralized all the drones.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> A Russian aviation-focused milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drones mostly targeted military airfields in Voronezh Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Claimed%20Ukrainian%20Strikes%20into%20Russia%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Claimed%20Ukrainian%20Strikes%20into%20Russia%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Claimed%20Ukrainian%20Strikes%20into%20Russia%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="647" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Claimed%20Ukrainian%20Strikes%20into%20Russia%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">SBU sources told <em>Suspilne </em>that
these strikes are intended to reduce Russia’s economic output and
reduce oil revenue and fuel supplies that Russia uses directly for its
war effort in Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span>
Ukrainian actors have continually conducted similar drone strikes
against several major Russian oil refineries in 2024 thus far and
successfully struck oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai and Volgograd
Oblast in January and February.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> Russian outlet <em>Kommersant</em>
reported in February that Russian refineries reduced their output by 4
percent in January 2024 compared to the same period in 2024, and by 1.4
percent compared to December 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> <em>Kommersant</em>
stated that this reduction was partially a result of increased drone
attacks on refinery infrastructure. This reported decline in refinery
production is not large, but it shows the potential for Ukraine to
generate asymmetrical effects against critical Russian energy and
military infrastructure by targeting high-value assets with a few
relatively inexpensive drones.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The governor of the
pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul,
claimed on March 13 that her recent meetings with Russian officials in
Russia led to deepening economic ties between Gagauzia and Russia, which
the Kremlin likely hopes to exploit as part of its wider efforts to
destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova from joining the European Union
(EU). </strong>Gutsul gave a briefing on her meetings in Russia during her visit from March 1 to 8.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> Gutsul claimed that her meetings focused on three “key” topics that are of the “most concern” to the Gagauz people <strong>— </strong>a
“special gas tariff” for Gagauzia, opening accounts for Gagauzian
businesses and individuals remotely in the Russian “MIR” payment system,
and the details about excise taxes and duties so Russia can open its
markets to Gagauzian companies. Gutsul claimed that Gagauzian businesses
exporting goods to Russia “will most likely receive very serious
advantages compared to other regions of Moldova.” Moldova’s other
pro-Russian region, the breakaway republic of Transnistria, has long
enjoyed free supplies of Russian gas from Russian state-owned energy
company Gazprom to an electricity plant in Transnistria.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span>
Moldova is still heavily reliant on Transnistrian-produced electricity,
despite Moldovan efforts to limit its dependence on Russian energy
since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span>
Russian gas supplies to Gagauzia would likely hamper the Moldovan
government’s efforts to move away from its decades-long dependence on
Russian energy as it turns instead to European suppliers and would
create another avenue through which Moldova is vulnerable to Russian
“energy blackmail” schemes, which the Kremlin has already employed
against Moldova in the past.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span>
Russia could also use reduced gas prices for Gagauzia to stoke domestic
discontent against the backdrop of higher gas prices in Moldova as
compared to previous years when Moldova imported Russian gas.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span>
Sergei Ibrishim, the Head of the Main Directorate of the
Agro-Industrial Complex of Gagauzia, sent an appeal to Kremlin officials
in January 2024 claiming that Gagauzian businesses have been unable to
sell their products to Russia since Moldova's July 2023 decision to
leave the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Interparliamentary
Assembly and asked Russian officials to abolish excise taxes and customs
duties for Gagauzian exports to Russia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> The opening of Russian markets to Gagauzian products and the likely tax benefits that would<strong> </strong>accompany
this opening are likely meant to dissuade Moldova from leaving the CIS,
which Moldova plans to do by the end of 2024, and create
inconsistencies in Moldova’s economic relations that would complicate or
derail its progress towards accession into the EU.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Kremlin is likely trying to use cooperation between Gutsul and other
pro-Russian actors and parties in Moldova as part of wider Kremlin
hybrid warfare operations in Moldova ahead of upcoming presidential and
parliamentary elections. </strong>Gutsul claimed that she will soon meet
with Igor Dodon, Vladimir Voronin, Ilan Shor, and the leadership of the
Moldovan Revival Party to discuss “possible cooperation.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> Dodon is the former pro-Russian president of Moldova who preceded the current president, Maia Sandu.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span>
Voronin is also a former Moldovan president and current member of
parliament. Dodon, as the leader of the Moldovan Socialist Party, and
Voronin, as the leader of the Moldovan Communist Party and a current
member of Parliament, formed an electoral alliance in parliament in
2021.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span>
Ilan Shor is a US-sanctioned, pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician who
recently met with Kremlin officials in Russia and is currently living in
Israel after Moldovan authorities sentenced him <em>in absentia</em> for fraud and money laundering in April 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span>
The Revival Party is affiliated with Shor’s now-banned Moldovan
political party, the Shor Party, and multiple parliamentary deputies
from Dodon’s Socialist party have recently joined the Revival Party.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Gutsul,
who ran as a candidate for the Shor Party in Gagauzia’s 2023
gubernatorial election, does not have an extensive political background.
Gutsul is a lawyer by training, reportedly worked as a telephone
operator from 2012–2014 and then as a telecommunications operator,
commercial representative, and archivist.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span>
Gutsul reportedly started working as a secretary for the Shor Party
from 2018-2022. Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Leonid
Slutsky and Russian cultural figures supported her gubernatorial
campaign.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span>
Gutsul’s plans to meet with multiple Kremlin-linked politicians and
parties, despite the fact that these actors are not directly involved in
Gagauzian politics and do not have previous ties to Gutsul, suggests
that these meetings are Kremlin-orchestrated and aimed at furthering
wider Kremlin, not Gagauzian, objectives. ISW continues to assess that
the Kremlin is trying to use both Gagauzia and Transnistria as part of
its hybrid operations aimed at sabotaging Moldova’s EU accession process
and keeping Moldova within Russia’s sphere of influence.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span>
The Kremlin may hope to create and exploit a coalition between Dodon’s
Socialist Party, Voronin’s Communist Party, and various Shor-linked
parties, such as the Revival party, to counter Sandu’s pro-Western Party
of Action and Solidarity (PAS) party ahead of the upcoming Moldovan
presidential elections in late 2024 and parliamentary elections in 2025.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited
cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian
Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian
Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of March 12 and the
morning of March 13. </strong>Russian sources claimed that Russian
forces repelled all-Russian pro-Ukrainian forces that attempted to
conduct a limited incursion near Kozinka and Mokraya Orlovka, Belgorod
Oblast and unspecified areas in Kursk Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span>
The LSR posted footage on March 13 and claimed that it seized part of
Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, although the footage was geolocated to Ryzhivka,
Sumy Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span>
The RDK, LSR, and Siberian Battalion issued a joint statement on March
13 stating that they are targeting Russian military positions in
Belgorod and Kursk oblasts and calling on civilians to leave.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov acknowledged the joint statement.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Ukrainian
shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in
the provision of US military assistance may be making the current
Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian
advances in various sectors would indicate.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
rate of Russian advance west of Avdiivka has recently slowed, although
Russian forces likely retain the capability to intensify offensive
operations in the area at a moment of their choosing.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Ukrainian
actors conducted large-scale drone strikes against energy
infrastructure and military assets within Russia on the night of March
12 to 13.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The governor of the pro-Russian
Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, claimed on
March 13 that her recent meetings with Russian officials in Russia led
to deepening economic ties between Gagauzia and Russia, which the
Kremlin likely hopes to exploit as part of its wider efforts to
destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova from joining the EU.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited
cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian
Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian
Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of March 12 and the
morning of March 13.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian forces recently
made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional
engagements along the entire frontline on March 13.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
authorities continue efforts to censor protests of wives and mothers of
mobilized soldiers ahead of the Russian presidential election.</strong></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><em>We
do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities
are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the
military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue
to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on
the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on
combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations
of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes
against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian
Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast
and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern
Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Significant Activity in Belarus</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push
westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March
13. Positional fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka;
northwest of Svatove near Tabaivka and Stelmakhivka; west of Kreminna
near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka (12km
south of Kreminna).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued in the Bakhmut direction on March 13 but there
were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Some Russian
milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have captured unspecified
tactical positions near the railway station in Klishchiivka (southwest
of Bakhmut), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these
Russian gains.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> Milbloggers also claimed that there is heavy fighting ongoing in Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span>
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported positional engagements northwest
of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and east of
Chasiv Yar; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> Elements of the Russian 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division are continuing to operate northwest of Bakhmut.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces recently advanced northwest and southwest of Avdiivka.
Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces
advanced on the eastern outskirts of Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span>
Additional geolocated footage published on March 12 shows that Russian
forces recently advanced along Pershotravneva Street in Pervomaiske
(southwest of Avdiivka).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are continuing to make gradual tactical advances towards central Pervomaiske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span>
Russian milbloggers additionally claimed on March 12 that Russian
forces expanded their control in Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) and captured
new positions in forest areas between Orlivka (west of Avdiivka) and
Tonenke.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span>
One milblogger noted on March 13 that the most intense fighting is
ongoing between Berdychi and Tonenke (northwest of Avdiivka), but
another Russian source noted that fighting overall has slowed down in
this area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span>
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting northwest of Avdiivka
near Berdychi and Novobakhmutivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka and
Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span>
Elements of the 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s
Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly fighting in Pervomaiske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="702" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 13,
but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. One
Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are continuing to make
gains south of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) but that the
terrain north of Novomykhailivka is making it more difficult for Russian
forces to advance.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span>
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued positional fighting
west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of
Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span>
Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army
[CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near
Krasnohorivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="788" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Limited
positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast
border area on March 13, but there were no confirmed changes to the
frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting
southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Novodonetske and Shevchenko and south
of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span>
Elements of the Russian 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized
Rifle Division, 5th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 336th
Naval Infantry Brigade (11th Army Corps, Baltic Fleet) are operating in
the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="667" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 13, but
there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian
and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near
Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span>
Elements of the Russian 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade and 1430th Motorized
Rifle Regiment (Russian Territorial Troops [TRV]) are reportedly
operating in the Zaporizhia direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span>
Elements of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized
Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military
District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="621" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
Russian government responded to the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s (IAEA) March 7 resolution calling for the urgent withdrawal of
all unauthorized Russian military and other personnel from the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and the return of the ZNPP to
full Ukrainian control.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span>
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed on March 13 that
any resolutions or statements from officials and international
organizations that call for the return of the ZNPP to Ukraine or the
establishment of international control over the ZNPP are “attempt[s] to
encroach on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span>
The Russian MFA also claimed that Russian forces are taking all
possible measures to protect the plant and that Ukrainian forces
threaten the plant‘s safety. ISW previously assessed that the IAEA’s
resolution undermined ongoing Russian efforts to use the IAEA and other
international organizations to legitimize its occupation of the ZNPP.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a limited raid in west
(right) bank Kherson Oblast on the night of March 12–13, but there were
no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Russian sources,
including Kherson Oblast occupation governor Vladimir Saldo, claimed on
March 13 that Russian naval infantry, airborne (VDV) troops, and
volunteer servicemen conducted a limited raid on Ukrainian positions on
the west bank of the Dnipro River near the base of the Antonivsky
Bridge.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span> A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 45th Spetsnaz Brigade participated in the raid.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span>
ISW has not observed any visual confirmation of Russian activity on the
west bank and there are no confirmed changes to the frontline in west
bank Kherson Oblast. Saldo claimed that all Russian personnel involved
in the raid returned to their east (left) bank positions, indicating
that Russian forces did not seek to establish an enduring presence in
west bank Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that
positional engagements continued near Krynky.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span>
Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet)
and elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade (22nd Army Corps,
reportedly part of the forming 18th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating
in the Kherson direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against
Ukrainian rear areas on March 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported
that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Russian Kh-31 missile over an
unspecified location.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[74]</span>
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces struck Kryvyi Rih,
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an unspecified missile; Novyi Korotych,
Kharkiv Oblast with an unspecified number of S-300 missiles; and a
residential building in Sumy Oblast with Shahed-136/131 drones.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[75]</span>
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces
launched unspecified missiles from tactical aircraft towards Odesa
Oblast in the morning and afternoon and that Ukrainian forces shot down
the first missile over the Black Sea and that the second missile
malfunctioned and fell on an open area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[76]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
authorities continue efforts to censor protests of wives and mothers of
mobilized soldiers ahead of the Russian presidential election. Russian
opposition outlet<em> Mobilization News</em> reported on March 13 that
Russian police visited “Way Home” movement leader Maria Andreeva’s home
to issue a warning that she could be participating in “extremist
activities.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[77]</span>
The “Way Home” movement’s participants recently claimed that they would
not vote for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Russian
presidential election and accused him of not caring about them or their
mobilized relatives.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[78]</span>
The “Way Home” movement nevertheless called for people to vote on March
17, suggesting that the movement is encouraging Russians to vote for a
candidate other than Putin.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[79]</span> ISW has observed continued Kremlin attempts to censor and discredit the ”Way Home” movement since December 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[80]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">A
Russian insider source claimed on March 13 that the Kremlin intends to
transfer powers away from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD)
and remove MVD Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev at an unspecified date in
2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[81]</span>
The source claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) will
be involved in rotating personnel out of the MVD, but that the new MVD
head may be one of Kolokoltsev’s current deputies. ISW cannot
independently verify any of the insider source’s claims.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) </strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Nothing significant to report.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong>
(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become
more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international
partners)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note: ISW will be publishing
its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis
in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track
developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will
refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive
Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed
areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural,
economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas
twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will
continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will
refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian
Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary. </strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials continue to feign
interest in negotiations to prompt Western concessions on Ukrainian
sovereignty and territorial integrity. Putin stated in an interview
published on March 13 that Russia has never refused negotiations and
reiterated accusations that Western officials previously coerced Ukraine
to reject an agreement favorable to Russia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[82]</span>
Putin asserted that it would be “ridiculous” for Russia to negotiate
when Ukraine is ”running out of ammunition” and that Russia will proceed
with negotiations if the negotiations take into account Russian
security guarantees and forbid Ukrainian rearmament.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[83]</span>
Putin’s focus on Ukrainian ”rearmament” is a refence to his call for
the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which he hopes will allow him to
enforce his will upon Ukraine without any substantial military
resistance.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[84]</span>
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova
stated on March 13 that Russia will not participate in the Ukrainian
Peace Formula Summit in Switzerland in 2024, even if Russia was invited,
and denounced the summit and Switzerland as biased.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[85]</span> Zakharova similarly stated that Russia is open to negotiations that take into account "legitimate” Russian interests.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[86]</span>
ISW continues to assess that Russia is not interested in good faith
negotiations with Ukraine and has no interest in ending the war on
anything but Russia’s articulated maximalist terms of destroying
Ukraine’s sovereignty and eradicating the notion of a unique Ukrainian
national identity.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[87]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Putin
also reiterated boilerplate nuclear rhetoric that aims to deter Western
support to Ukraine over fears of Russia potentially using nuclear
weapons. Putin stated that Russia is always in a state of nuclear
readiness and that Russia will only use nuclear weapons to protect the
existence of the Russian state.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[88]</span>
Putin’s continued appeals to Russian nuclear capabilities do not
reflect any changes in Russian nuclear doctrine, and Putin likely refers
to these capabilities to try to raise Western fears of nuclear
escalation. ISW continues to assess that Russian use of a tactical
nuclear weapon in Ukraine remains highly unlikely.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[89]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned that the
Kremlin intends to intensify an information operation called “Perun”
ahead of the Russian presidential election on March 17 that aims to
discredit Ukraine among Russians and the West.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[90]</span>
The GUR stated on March 13 that Russian special services, including
Rosgvardia and the Russian Main Directorate of the General Staff (GRU),
have received instructions to discredit Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian
politicians in the West while continuing efforts to portray Ukrainians
as “Nazis“ among Russian and Western audiences.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[91]</span>
The GUR reported that the Kremlin information operation will peak
around the Russian presidential election and culminate by the end of
June 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[92]</span>
The Kremlin is reportedly conducting a parallel information campaign
called “Maidan-3” that aims to sow panic and discontent in the Ukrainian
population and drive a wedge between civilians and military and
political leadership in Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[93]</span> Russian actors will reportedly intensify the “Maidan-3” information operation in May 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[94]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">A
Kremlin-affiliated prominent milblogger continues to accuse the West of
bribing and blackmailing Armenian officials to pursue anti-Russian
positions.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[95]</span>
ISW assesses that the Kremlin is likely preparing a harsher and more
concerted response as Armenia continues to take measures to distance
itself from Russia and signal interest in strengthening relations with
the West.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[96]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong>
(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and
further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner
Group activity in Belarus)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Union State Secretary
Dmitry Mezentsev, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, Russian
Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov, and Smolensk Oblast Governor
Vasily Anokhin participated in a meeting of the Union State’s Council of
Ministers High-Level Group on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[97]</span>
Overchuk stated that Russian companies from 72 Russian federal subjects
entered 5,236 trade contracts with Belarusian companies from March 2022
to February 2024. ISW continues to assess that Belarusian companies
assist Russian businesses in sanctions evasions schemes.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[98]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only
publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian,
Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as
commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as
the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided
in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_84.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_84.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_84.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_84.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> https://www.spiegel dot de/ausland/ukraine-steht-die-front-vor-dem-zusammenbruch-a-7ea598f2-e911-4dde-8724-aa1c9ad1c24b</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> https://t.me/osirskiy/615</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031224</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030924</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030424</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024</span> ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> https://tass dot ru/politika/20016943</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWarO22124</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2024</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2024 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/35896;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62569</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/113892;%C2%A0https://t.me/FilatovCorr</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2024</span>
; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62783 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4531;
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62682;
https://x.com/EjShahid/status/17613952652...
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1761367797827785038; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/blinzka/status/1761428874447982624</span> ; https://t.me/sashakots/45098 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/113662 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8138%C2%A0</span> ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62721%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/z_arhiv/26132 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62597 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1686</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1685</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof/posts/pfbid0jqrA5VrwTUuSLm3G9jbbtwZrJZ1rWeXFqRUaHWhhZgSLsKijb9pA3y2sdzHLzadQl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1670</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1670 </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar011924</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/704524-sbu-dronami-atakuvala-odrazu-tri-naftopererobnih-zavodi-u-rosii-dzerela/ ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RBC_ua_news/87104</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/pavelmalkov_official/266;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1767813722523722213?s=20</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1767854240653877384?s=20</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span>
dot
media/704262-paket-dopomogi-vid-ssa-rosijski-vijskovi-vdarili-po-krivomu-rogu-749-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1710331787&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps;
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1767856685987606588?s=20</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/golubev_vu/1202</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236237;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63608</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/golubev_vu/1203;</span> https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54698</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/bbcrussian/62063</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/astrapress/50780</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36536</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/39950</span> ; https://t.me/bazabazon/25819</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36564;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36566;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36569</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36572;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36576;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36578;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36580</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58131</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15984</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://suspilne</span> dot media/704524-sbu-dronami-atakuvala-odrazu-tri-naftopererobnih-zavodi-u-rosii-dzerela/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar012524</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020324</span>; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020924</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.kommersant</span> dot ru/doc/6493688</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> https://t.me/evgheniagutul/2473</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> https://ecfr.eu/article/the-final-frontier-ending-moldovas-dependency-on-russian-gas/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> https://www.csis.org/analysis/winter-coming-moldova</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]https://www.intellinews.com/moldova-halved-natural-gas-consumption-since-2021-302640/</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.csis.org/analysis/winter-coming-moldova</span> ; https://ecfr.eu/article/the-final-frontier-ending-moldovas-dependency-on-russian-gas/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.intellinews.com/moldova-halved-natural-gas-consumption-since-2021-302640/</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.csis.org/analysis/winter-coming-moldova</span> ; https://ecfr.eu/article/the-final-frontier-ending-moldovas-dependency-on-russian-gas/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-28-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-working-to-block-moldova-from-leaving-cis/</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.kyivpost</span> dot com/post/25790</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> https://t.me/evgheniagutul/2473</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://balkaninsight</span>
dot
com/2022/11/08/moldova-ex-president-dodon-was-on-moscows-payroll-report/
;
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/world/europe/moldova-presidential-election-igo-dodon.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://tv8</span> dot md/2021/05/13/ultima-ora-cec-a-inregistrat-blocul-electoral-al-pcrm-si-psrm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-transnistria-may-organize-referendum-annexation-russia-support-russian-hybrid</span> ; https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-shor-returns-israel-fugitive/32681693.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://moldova</span> dot europalibera.org/a/cum-se-scurg-socialistii-intr-un-satelit-al-partidului-sor-/32424432.html ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://newsmaker</span>
dot
md/ro/socialistii-se-reinventeaza-dupa-discutiile-cu-ilan-sor-deputatii-vasile-bolea-si-alexandr-suhodolskii-au-aderat-la-partidul-renasterea/
; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.publika</span>
dot
md/psrm-slabeste-deputatii-vasile-bolea-alexandr-suhodolschi-irina-lozovan-si-alexandr-nesterovschi-au-aderat-la-partidul-renastere-_3136983.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mold-street</span> dot com/?go=news&n=16109 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://bas-tv</span>
dot
md/bitva-za-gagauz-lend-ot-trenera-po-borbe-do-diplomata/?fbclid=IwAR0TKu2jBk5rRswm2QtpfLq9iJ5OlEamejdPo9JPuerzDDLq_gWjRzsbvHg
; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.moldovacurata</span> dot md/profil-candidat-evghenia-gutul-1-2577</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://newsmaker</span>
dot
md/rus/novosti/video-slutskiy-vsled-za-rossiyskimi-pevtsami-podderzhivayuschimi-voynu-prisoedinilsya-k-agitatsionnoy-kampanii-partii-shor-v-gagauzii/
; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://ria</span> dot ru/20230414/gagauziya-1865279455.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124</span> ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span>
https://t.me/epoddubny/19326 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36574 ;
https://t.me/tass_agency/236252 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116270 ;
https://t.me/rybar/58129 </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1767897579734302763?s=20</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1767827926311964996?s=20</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/agentstvonews/5429</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1129 ; https://t.me/russvolcorps/891 ; https://t.me/SiberianBattalion/238</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span> https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/13/u-gur-rozpovily-pro-serjoznist-zvernennya-rdk-do-zhyteliv-kurshhyny-i-bilgorodshhyny/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</span> ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36574 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36581</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8236;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8856</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36524;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8236</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8236;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span> https://t.me/mod_russia/36590</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12209</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/aerial_reconnaissance25/26;</span> https://x.com/small10space/status/1767492997728309604?s=20; https://x.com/Spider18Actual/status/1767560755459875181?s=20</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ssternenko/26220</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4748;</span> https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12223</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58138</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54692;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/z_arhiv/26262;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116214</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54692</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54693;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8239</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36574</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36583</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36563</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18720;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8882</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36524;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36510</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36510;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36524;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54693</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span> https://t.me/milinfolive/118161</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36574</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36584</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36568</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36546</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7491</span> (Pryyutne); <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7494</span> (Malynivka)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18702</span> ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36524</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/118159</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36597</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/epoddubny/19327</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voenacher/62414</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36586</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://mid</span> dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1938246/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://mid</span> dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1938246/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236236</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8234</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2490</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/VGA_Kherson/19516</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36524</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/osetin20/8131</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36545</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/osetin20/8131</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36545</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid023mkW4RCqwxUnKsLkcVCyGWeRChpchmNaB9jvJ9G91n1SHERfdAQavNW5QSyFFpRil</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0369FBYMWwLN9F6EmYN5K6Abq4yAErxBAQQoKzFZiBwq6FHNZVjDtticoNH9b1C3Y6l</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/russianocontext/2383</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1767595014727602310?s=20</span> ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116289</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[74]</span> https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02tCXSQqEUgmhtFduQ1obhyPECFWtRrAVspxyNdWoFupbP9VM4Y2GzwVTJhcHWU2afl</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[75]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/11295</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24884</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/Klymenko_MVS/777?single</span> ; https://t.me/synegubov/8705</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[76]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7120</span> ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7131</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[77]</span> https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17941 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mobilizpravda/297</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mobilizpravda/293</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[78]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17935</span> ; https://t.me/PYTY_DOMOY/963 </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[79]</span> https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17935 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/PYTY_DOMOY/963</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[80]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7-2023 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2024</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[81]</span> https://t.me/vchkogpu/46548</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[82]</span> http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73648</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[83]</span> http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73648</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[84]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar030124</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[85]</span> https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1938357/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[86]</span> https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1938357/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[87]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar010224</span>;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2023-0;
https://isw.pub/UkrWar122922</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[88]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://kremlin</span> dot ru/events/president/news/73648</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[89]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-6</span> ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-february-5-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[90]</span> https://t.me/DIUkraine/3588</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[91]</span> https://t.me/DIUkraine/3588</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[92]</span> https://t.me/DIUkraine/3588</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[93]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[94]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[95]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58130</span> ; https://t.me/rybar/58127</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[96]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[97]</span> https://t.me/MID_Russia/36103</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[98]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17-2023</span></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-611795668580862332024-03-13T22:18:00.001-04:002024-03-13T22:18:04.380-04:00Iran Update, March 13, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Peter Mills, Alexandra Braverman, Ashka Jhaveri, and Brian Carter</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong style="text-align: left;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div> <p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the
region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true"><em>interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em>.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Note:
CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.
The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of
Resistance. </em><em>We do not report in detail on war crimes because
these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We
utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe
them in these reports.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap"><em>here</em></a><em>
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html" href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html"><em>here</em></a><em> to subscribe to the Iran Update.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Israeli
media reported that the IDF Navy fired at two suspected Palestinian
fighters in scuba gear approaching the border between the northern Gaza
Strip and Israel.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Gaza Strip: </strong>The IDF 98th Division expanded clearing operations in the northern and eastern Khan Younis.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Political Negotiations: </strong>Saudi
state-affiliated media claimed that Hamas agreed to a modified US
ceasefire proposal on March 12, which Hamas later denied.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iran: </strong>Iranian
Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani claimed on March 13
that Iranian defense exports have increased by five times since 2022.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Yemen: </strong>The Houthi movement launched a close-range ballistic missile targeting the USS Laboon in the Red Sea.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>West Bank: </strong>IDF Army Radio reported that the IDF completed a brigade-sized operation in Jenin.</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting an official in Hamas’ military wing, Hadi Ali Mustafa, near Tyre, Lebanon.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch13%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch13%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch13%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch13%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></div></strong><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Erode
the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch
and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli
media reported on March 13 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Navy
fired at two suspected Palestinian fighters in scuba gear approaching
the border between the northern Gaza Strip and Israel.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
CTP-ISW has not recorded Palestinian fighters attempting to infiltrate
into Israel from the Gaza Strip since early November 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> An IDF Navy helicopter destroyed an unspecified Palestinian vessel near Gaza City on March 11.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The
presence of Palestinian fighters and infrastructure in the northern
Gaza Strip demonstrates that Palestinian militias retain some capacity
to operate there, despite Israeli clearing operations. Israeli forces
began clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip in late October
2023 and began withdrawing from the area in early 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
International governments and non-government organizations are
beginning to build temporary infrastructure on the coast of the northern
Gaza Strip to enable the distribution of aid from the sea.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli forces continued to operate in the central and northern Gaza Strip on March 13.</strong>
The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) directed airstrikes targeting a
Palestinian fighter entering a Hamas-affiliated building in the central
Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
The IDF 143rd Division conducted several airstrikes targeting
Palestinian militia infrastructure in Deir al Balah, including tunnel
shafts and anti-tank guided missile positions.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span>
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military
wing of Fatah and is aligned with Hamas in the war, claimed the only
attack targeting Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip on March 13. Al Aqsa
Martyrs’ Brigades fighters mortared Israeli forces in southern Zaytoun
in this attack.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NorthGazaHeatmapFEB1_MAR13.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NorthGazaHeatmapFEB1_MAR13.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NorthGazaHeatmapFEB1_MAR13.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NorthGazaHeatmapFEB1_MAR13.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
IDF killed a Hamas commander in the Hamas “operations department” at a
UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) food
distribution center in Rafah on March 13. The IDF assessed that the
commanders’ death will “significantly harm the functioning” of Hamas’
forces in Rafah.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span></strong>
The IDF said that the commander, Muhammad Abu Hasna, directed Hamas
forces engaged with Israeli forces elsewhere in the Strip from an
intelligence command center in Rafah.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> The IDF reported that Abu Hasna had seized humanitarian aid equipment and distributing it to Hamas fighters.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The IDF 98th Division expanded clearing operations in the northern and eastern Khan Younis on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span></strong> The IDF 89th Commando Brigade detained several Palestinian militia fighters, including a Hamas Nukhba commander in Hamad.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span>
The IDF Egoz Unit (89th Commando Brigade) airstrikes and indirect fire
targeting seven Palestinian fighters barricaded in a building in Hamad.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> The IDF Maglan Unit (89th Commando Brigade) seized weapons in Hamad.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span><strong> </strong>Palestinian militias did not claim attacks targeting Israeli forces in Khan Younis on March 13.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2013%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2013%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2013%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2013%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Saudi
state-affiliated media claimed that Hamas agreed to a modified US
ceasefire proposal on March 12, which Hamas later denied.</strong>.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span>
Saudi state-affiliated media cited an unspecified ”senior Hamas
official” who said that Hamas representatives would travel to Cairo in
the coming days to discuss final details and the modified proposal’s
implementation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span>
Hamas denied the report and implored the media to “ensure accuracy and
credibility in reporting the news and not to manipulate the feelings of
[the Palestinian] people.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span>
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh issued five maximalist
demands for a hostage-for-prisoner exchange on March 10 and stated that
the Hamas leadership would reject any agreement that called for a
temporary ceasefire.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
The United States' proposal directly conflicts with Haniyeh’s recent
demands because it does not explicitly call for a path to a lasting
ceasefire.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span></div></strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The IDF announced that it conducted a pilot shipment to supply aid directly to the northern Gaza Strip.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span>
Israel inspected six World Food Program aid trucks at the Kerem Shalom
crossing before allowing the trucks to enter the northern Gaza Strip via
"Crossing 96.“<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span>
The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson said that the Israeli political
establishment would decide whether to open ”Crossing 96” based on the
results of the pilot shipment.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> The trucks reached southern Gaza City without incident.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hamas is seizing aid from convoys in the Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span>
CTP-ISW reported that the Israeli War Cabinet approved a measure
allowing the direct flow of humanitarian aid into northern Gaza Strip on
February 25.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Palestinian militias did not conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 13.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli
forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least 14 times in the
West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 12.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> Nine of the clashes occurred in Jenin.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and PIJ separately claimed small arms fire targeting IDF positions near Tulkarm on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>IDF Army Radio reported that the IDF completed a brigade-sized operation in Jenin on March 13.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> The IDF killed two Palestinian fighters and destroyed planted IEDs during the operation.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span>
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and PIJ detonated IEDs and fired small
arms at Israeli forces conducting operations in Jenin on March 12.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> </p><p style="text-align: justify;">An individual stabbed and wounded an IDF soldier and an Israeli guard near Bethlehem on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span>
No group has claimed the attack, and the IDF did not specify whether
the attacker was affiliated with an armed group. Hamas celebrated the
stabbing attack and reiterated its call for Palestinians march towards
the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least six
attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last
data cutoff on March 12.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span>
Hezbollah claimed that it fired unspecified weapons targeting an
Israeli drone and "forced it to retreat” to Israeli territory on March
13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span>
The IDF has not commented on the incident at the time of writing.
Hezbollah has claimed three attacks targeting Israeli drones since March
11.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> Hezbollah shot down an Israeli drone on February 26.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting an official in Hamas’ military wing, Hadi Ali Mustafa, near Tyre, Lebanon, on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> </strong>Mustafa
reported to a close aide to Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman
Saleh Arouri, who Israel killed in Beirut on January 2.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span>
The IDF stated that Mustafa was involved in “directing terror cells in
Lebanon” and that Mustafa supported terror attacks targeting Israelis
and Jews around the world.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> Hamas’ military wing acknowledged Mustafa’s death on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2013%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
IDF conducted airstrikes targeting two Syrian Arab Army (SAA) military
sites operated by Lebanese Hezbollah in southern Syria on March 12</strong>.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span>
The IDF stated that it will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself
along Syria’s border with the Israel-controlled Golan Heights and that
the IDF will hold the SAA responsible for Hezbollah activity in Syria.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span>
Local Syrian sources reported that the Israeli strikes targeted
Hezbollah positions in Tal Ahmar and Ain al Nouriyah, Quneitra Province,
Syria, near the Israel-controlled Golan Heights.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span>
Israeli media reported in 2020 that the SAA’s 1st Corps, which is
responsible for areas of southern Syria near the Golan Heights, is
closely affiliated with Hezbollah.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Demonstrate
the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to
escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iranian
Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani claimed on March 13
that Iranian defense exports have increased by five times since 2022.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span></strong> Iran uses its defense exports to expand its military influence abroad and to generate revenue for the Iranian economy.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> Ashtiani separately stated that Iran seeks to develop greater defense cooperation with Armenia, Qatar, Russia, and Turkey.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span>
Ashtiani recently held separate meetings with the Qatari and Armenian
defense ministers in Doha on March 4 and in Tehran on March 6,
respectively.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> Ashtiani attended the Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference during his visit to Qatar.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span>
Iran displayed its drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, and air defense
systems, among other military equipment, in the exhibition. Iran has
also reportedly supplied drones to Armenia since at least July 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The Houthi movement launched a close-range ballistic missile targeting the USS Laboon in the Red Sea on March 12 .<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span></strong> US CENTCOM reported that the missile did not impact the ship or cause any damage or injuries.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>CENTCOM
reported on March 12 that a US and coalition vessel intercepted two
drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.</strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Houthi-controlled
media claimed that the United States and United Kingdom conducted three
airstrikes targeting Hudaydah International Airport on March 13.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2013%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2013%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_85.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_85.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_85.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_85.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr align="left" size="1" style="text-align: justify;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
https://timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-fired-warning-shots-at-two-suspects-in-diving-gear-in-northern-gaza/?_x_tr_sl=en&_x_tr_tl=pt&_x_tr_hl=pt-BR&_x_tr_pto=s
; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1767924598576656456</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1767930211889258818</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-4-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/newpress1/57046</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/beitlahiaNews/5548</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081191214071930</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-28-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3702071/dod-to-construct-pier-to-deliver-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza/</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1767756279303360619</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812133725548685</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812130412097822</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6004</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-forces-kill-two-palestinians-west-bank-raid-after-deadly-night-2024-03-13/ ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767986670257713491</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767986665019126150</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767986665019126150</span> ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767986670257713491</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812038548430957</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.dot</span> idf.il/185602</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812038548430957</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812127299899775 </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767812127299899775</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://english</span> dot alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/03/12/Hamas-has-agreed-to-modified-US-proposal-for-Gaza-ceasefire-Source ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19737</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://english</span> dot alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/03/12/Hamas-has-agreed-to-modified-US-proposal-for-Gaza-ceasefire-Source</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> https://t.me/hamasps/19737</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19721</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19722</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19723</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/us-asks-hamas-release-women-elderly-hostages-longer-ceasefire-2024-03-12/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1767662789701562382</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/aid-trucks-trickle-into-northern-gaza-as-israel-opens-new-route-af0f5496?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1</span> ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-uses-new-land-route-israel-reach-northern-gaza-2024-03-12/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1767662789701562382</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1767662789701562382</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span>
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/aid-trucks-trickle-into-northern-gaza-as-israel-opens-new-route-af0f5496?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1767662789701562382</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> https://isw.pub/IranUpdate022524</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/3070</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataipshohdaaalaqsa/1007</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayajneen/1211</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataipshohdaaalaqsa/1009</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5999</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767841683343843660</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6003</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6000</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47173</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/381480</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/3070</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataipshohdaaalaqsa/1007</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayajneen/1211</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kataipshohdaaalaqsa/1009</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5999</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767841683343843660</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6000</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/381480</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1767797220118593749</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767841683343843660</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayajneen/1211</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5999</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1767813653938442498</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47173</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1767827978082238596</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/hamasps/19738</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2605</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47178</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2616</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2618</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2620</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47191</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2620</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2563</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2594</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2620</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2269</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1762032276408320450</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1762033113050268060</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1767872151024013520</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767871168655089872</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767871173654610411</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www</span> dot timesofisrael.com/saleh-al-arouri-mastermind-of-hamas-terrorism-in-west-bank-hostage-deal-negotiator/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1767872151024013520</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767871168655089872</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1758</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47176</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767624078511260086</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767624078511260086</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/nourabohsn/status/1767628932281405535</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/damascusv011/21318</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.jpost dot com/arab-israeli-conflict/syria-makes-command-changes-to-1st-corps-following-israeli-threats-651949</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/656756</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> https://www.iswresearch.org/2023/07/iran-update-july-20-2023.html;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-4-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span> https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/656756</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/212622/Iran-Qatar-defense-ministers-hold-meeting-in-Doha;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/212748/Iran-Armenia-defense-ministers-discuss-regional-security</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span> https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/654969</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-17-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3705123/march-12-red-sea-update/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span> https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3705123/march-12-red-sea-update/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span> https://twitter.com/alsyasiah/status/1767901933392552386?s=61&t=svl2T98Uxch33RSQA98Aqw</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-42200887510054199492024-03-12T21:14:00.004-04:002024-03-12T21:14:42.367-04:00 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 12, 2024, 8pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 8 pm ET on March 12. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12. </strong>Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated on March 12 that elements of the RDK, LRS, and the Siberian Battalion were involved in clashes in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.[1] Russian sources initially denied reports of the incursion but later claimed that Russian forces repelled Russian pro-Ukrainian forces with tank, armored vehicle, and drone support attacking near Odnorobivka, Kharkiv Oblast and Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino, Belgorod Oblast.[2] Footage published on March 12 shows Russian pro-Ukrainian forces operating near Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino in Belgorod Oblast and in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast.[3] LSR forces reportedly seized Tetkino, although Russian sources claimed that Russian airborne conscripts repelled all the assaults in Tetkino.[4] ISW has previously observed reports that Russia uses conscripts to defend its border with Ukraine against limited incursions and assessed that this is likely due to Russia’s unwillingness to transfer forces away from the frontline elsewhere in Ukraine.[5] Russian milbloggers noted that the incursion came days before the Russian presidential election on March 17, and several Russian milbloggers warned that there might be additional incursions in the coming days.[6]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RDK%20Belgorod%20Incursion%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="765" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RDK%20Belgorod%20Incursion%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RDK%20Kursk%20Incursion%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="765" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RDK%20Kursk%20Incursion%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Times </em>(<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYT</em>) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.</strong><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> NYT</em> reported on March 12 that Russian forces have more EW equipment but that Russian EW capabilities are spread out unevenly along the front and that Russian armored vehicles are vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes due to their lack of mounted EW equipment.[7] The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYT </em>stated that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has adopted a “top down” approach to drone production with “heavy military oversight” that has made Russian drones “predictable” and lacking variety. This lack of variation has reportedly made it easier for Russian units to coordinate their drones’ flight paths and jammers so that they can jam Ukrainian drones without jamming their own. ISW has previously reported that the effectiveness of Russian EW systems is inconsistent across the front.[8] Russian milbloggers have routinely complained about Russian forces’ lack of EW systems in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, for example.[9] Russian milbloggers have also recently criticized the Russian military command’s failure to properly equip Russian forces with drones and EW systems after an unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.[10]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYT </em>noted that Ukraine’s DIB, on the other hand, has allowed non-military companies to fund and supply drones to Ukrainian forces, which has allowed Ukrainian drone units to test different technologies, procurement processes, and combat missions on the battlefield. The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYT </em>reported that a Ukrainian sergeant commanding a drone platoon stated that Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in a “constant arms race” in which one side improves its drone technology, forcing the other side to find a new way to combat this improvement.[11] ISW has also previously reported that Ukraine has over 200 companies (most of which are privately owned) producing various drones for the Ukrainian military as of October 2023.[12] Moscow Duma Deputy Andrei Medvedev recently stated that Russia has opted to mass produce drones, leading to the production of large numbers of drones that lack the technological adaptations needed to compete with Ukrainian drones.[13] Medvedev noted that Ukrainian forces are constantly improving their drones. ISW has observed how recent Russian drone and missile strike packages are also characteristic of the constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race in which Russia and Ukraine are engaged.[14] Ukrainian and Russian capabilities will likely vary across space and over time as one side will be unlikely to gain a decisive advantage across the entire frontline or permanently in one sector of the front. There will likely be opportunities to take advantage of these shifting variations.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin “probably believes” that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is “finite.”</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russia “almost certainly” does not want to engage in a direct military conflict with the United States or NATO but “will continue asymmetric activity below what it calculates to be the threshold of military conflict globally.”[16] ISW continues to assess that Russia continues to threaten NATO states and is setting conditions to justify future escalations against NATO states but does not assess that Putin desires direct full-scale war with NATO at this time.[17] US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines noted the importance of US security assistance to Ukraine to help Ukrainian forces maintain their previously liberated territories, especially amid “the sustained surge in Russian ammunition production and purchases from North Korea and Iran.”[18] ISW has previously assessed that the United States remains the only immediate source of necessary quantities of essential military equipment such as M1 Abrams tanks, armored personnel carriers, advanced air defense systems such as Patriots, and long-range strike systems - equipment that previous US aid packages prioritized.[19]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Sullivan stated that the aid package is comprised of new funding made available by cost saving measures in unspecified Pentagon weapons contracts.[21] Unnamed US officials told <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN</em> that the new funding is a result of “good negotiations” and “bundling funding across different things” but noted that this is not a sustainable long-term solution to aiding Ukraine, calling the package a “one time shot.”[22] This funding does not appear to be part of the reported $4 billion in presidential drawdown authority fund still available for Ukraine.[23] Sullivan stated that the aid package would provide Ukrainian forces with enough ammunition to last “a couple of weeks” and noted that this package “does not displace and should not delay the critical need” to pass a supplemental aid package for Ukraine.[24]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine. </strong>Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated on March 12 that he will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss ways to accelerate support for Ukraine, to strengthen the security of NATO’s eastern flank, and to increase European defense production.[25] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated on March 11 that “now is the time to debate” sending Western military personnel to Ukraine and the “red lines that [the West] has imposed on [itself]” in response to recent French discussions about sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.[26] French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated on March 9 during a meeting with Baltic and Ukrainian officials that Ukraine could use foreign troops for operations such as demining and that Russia should not be able to tell the West how to aid Ukraine by setting arbitrary “red lines.”[27]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states. </strong>The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) placed the Estonian Minister of Internal Affairs, Lauri Laanemets, on its online Russian wanted list.[28] Kremlin newswire <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TASS </em>reported on March 12 that Russian law enforcement agencies stated that Laanemets is wanted for the destruction and damage of Soviet war monuments.[29] The Russian MVD previously put other Baltic and Polish officials, including Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, on the wanted list for the same charges despite Russia’s lack of legal authority to prosecute foreign citizens for allegedly violating Russian laws in foreign states.[30] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) also banned 347 citizens from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, including many high-ranking Baltic officials, from entering Russia for allegedly having “hostile” policies towards Russia, interfering in Russian internal affairs, persecuting Russian-speaking populations, demolishing Soviet monuments, “glorifying Nazism,” and supplying Ukraine with weapons.[31] The Russian MFA claimed that it could expand the list “at any time.” Russia has previously used narratives about Russia’s right to protect its “compatriots abroad” (which includes Russian speakers), its alleged fight against neo-Nazism, and its dissatisfaction with the treatment of Soviet monuments in former Soviet states to justify its invasions of Ukraine and aggression against other countries, including NATO member Estonia, in the past.[32] ISW continues to assess that Russia‘s attempted use of pseudo-legal mechanisms against Baltic officials are part of the Russian efforts to set informational conditions justifying possible Russian escalations against NATO states in the future.[33]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command. </strong>Russian sources reported that the Russian military command named Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga Deputy Defense Minister for Logistics.[34]<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Kremlin newswire<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> TASS </em>reported that Bulyga previously served as Russian Western Military District (WMD) Deputy Commander for Logistics, and a Russian insider source, which has previously provided accurate reports regarding Russian command changes, claimed that Bulyga previously served in the Central Military District under Russian Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, who is reportedly the current Russian Ground Forces Commander.[35] Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on March 11 that Russian President Vladimir Putin reappointed Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Kuzmenkov as Rosgvardia Deputy Director overseeing rear areas and logistics and claimed that Kuzmenkov’s return to Rosgvardia means that Kuzmenkov has “completed his tasks” at the Russian MoD.[36] The Russian insider source claimed that the Russian military command appointed Lieutenant General Alexander Peryazev and Igor Seritsky as deputy commanders of the Moscow Military District and Lieutenant General Esedulla Abechev as Deputy Commander of the Leningrad Military District.[37] Peryazev reportedly previously served as the Commander of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army (WMD); Seritsky reportedly previously served as the Deputy Commander of the WMD; and Abechev reportedly previously served as the Deputy Command of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District).[38]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations. </strong>Pashinyan stated on March 12 that the CSTO must clarify its “zone of responsibility” in Armenia and pledge to defend Armenia against foreign aggression, likely referencing Article 4 of the CSTO Treaty that parallels Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and states that aggression against one CSTO member state is aggression against all member states.[39] Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the CSTO at an unspecified date if the CSTO’s answers to Armenia’s questions do not correspond with Armenia’s expectations.[40] Pashinyan expanded on his February 22 statement that Armenia “essentially” froze its CSTO membership and explained that Armenia does not participate in CSTO sessions, does not have a permanent representative in the CSTO, did not appoint a CSTO Deputy Secretary General, and does not express opinions on documents circulating in the CSTO.[41] CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov stated on March 12 that Armenia has not recently participated in that CSTO secretariat, but that Armenia has not made any official statements about its suspension of CSTO membership.[42] Pashinyan also stated on March 12 that Russian border guards will leave Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan by August 1, 2024, following a March 6 announcement that Armenia officially informed Russia that “only Armenian border guards” should perform duties at the Zvartnots Airport.[43] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on March 12 that Russia received Armenia’s notification that it is terminating Russian border guards’ operations at the Zvartnots Airport.[44]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Times </em>(<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYT</em>) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin “probably believes” that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is “finite.”</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on March 12.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 12.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of efforts to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine.</strong></li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 12 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces marginally advanced near Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces back 200 meters in a forest area east of Yampolivka (west of Kreminna).[45] Positional fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka, west of Kreminna near Terny, southwest of Kreminna near Hryhorivka, and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[46] Elements of the Russian 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction.[47]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s Internal Ministry reported on March 12 that Russian forces destroyed an apartment building in Kupyansk during a guided aerial strike.[48]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Klishchiivka (southwest of Bakhmut).[49] Positional engagements continued west of Bakhmut in the area east of Chasiv Yar and in Ivanivske; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Stupochky (likely referring to combat engagements taking place in the direction of Stupochky), Pivdenne, and Pivnichne.[50] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in western Ivanivske and that Russian forces do not control most of Ivanivske, contrary to some Russian claims.[51] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control 60 percent of Ivanivske, but ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.[52] Elements of the Russian 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate in the Bakhmut direction; elements of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Ivanivske; and reconnaissance elements of the 11th Separate Guards VDV Brigade are reportedly operating west of Bakhmut.[53]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicated that Russian forces recently advanced east of Nevelske (southwest of Avdiivka), while the Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces seized the entire settlement on March 12.[54] ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming that Russian forces seized Nevelske, and some Russian sources refuted the Russian MoD’s claim. A Russian milblogger involved with the training of Russian personnel claimed that Russian forces responsible for attacking Nevelske claimed that they did not capture the settlement, while a Kremlin-affiliate milblogger noted that there is no footage confirming the Russian advance, likely because Russian forces are still securing the area near Nevelske.[55] The Ukrainian General Staff notably did not state that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Nevelske in its evening situational report in contrast with earlier routine statements that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near the settlement.[56] Geolocated footage published on March 12 also indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control about a third of the settlement.[57] ISW has not observed footage confirming the Russian milblogger’s claim. Positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novobakhmutivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka and Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[58] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger added that Ukrainian forces stabilized the situation in the Avdiivka direction after transferring reinforcements.[59] Elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) are reportedly operating in the Pervomaiske area.[60]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="730" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicates that Russian forces recently made limited advances along the H-15 highway, which runs south of Marinka (west of Donetsk City).[61] Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces also recently advanced on the northeastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[62] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near the Marinska Dam (west of Donetsk City and east of Heorhiivka).[63] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhoviy stated that Ukrainian forces are carrying out rotations in the Tavriisk direction (Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast).[64] Positional engagements continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.[65] Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Heorhiivka.[66]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024_0.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="788" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024_0.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 11, and a Ukrainian military official recently stated that Russian forces resumed assaults on this frontline. Positional battles continued south of Velyka Novosilka and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Shevchenko.[67] Lykhoviy stated on March 11 that Russian forces recently resumed infantry attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and are currently focusing on Staromayorske and Urozhaine (south of Velyka Novosilka).[68]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="667" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline on March 12. Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).[69] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhoviy stated that Russian forces continue to pressure the Robotyne area, but the intensity of assaults has decreased.[70] Elements of the Russian 69th Covering Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) reportedly continue to operate in the Zaporizhia direction, and elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.[71]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="621" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="616" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline on March 12.[72] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces continue to assault Ukrainian positions in the east bank of Kherson Oblast without the support of armored vehicles to exhaust Ukrainian forces instead of pursuing tactical goals.[73] Humenyuk noted that Ukrainian forces have observed elite Russian airborne (VDV), territorial defense, naval infantry, mobilized, and “Z” assault elements operating in the Kherson direction.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2012%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian occupation forces continue to operate the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) improperly and unsafely. Energoatom Head Petro Kotin stated that Russian authorities unsuccessfully attempted to connect the ZNPP to the Russian power system and dismissed the last 400 “qualified” Ukrainian workers who were responsible for the ZNPP’s safety in February.[74] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi stated that “the situation [at the ZNPP] is not stable in the long-term,” but that the current staff present can function in the ZNPP’s present shutdown configuration.[75]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian Navy reported on March 11 that the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a successful strike near the occupied Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast on the Russian <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mechanik Pogodin</em> tanker, which Russian forces have been using as a surveillance post, electronic warfare (EW) deployment point, and first-person view (FPV) drone launching point.[76] The Ukrainian Navy reported that the <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mechanik Pogodin</em> washed onto the Kinburn Spit after Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) in the summer 2023.[77] The Ukrainian Navy stated that the <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mechanik Pogodin </em>meets the definition of a military object under the San Remo Manual on International Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea articles 40 and 60, which state that an enemy merchant vessel may become a military objective if it is “being incorporated into or assisting the enemy’s intelligence gathering system, e.g., engaging in reconnaissance, early warning, surveillance, or command, control and communications missions.”[78]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Humenyuk stated that the Russian military is conducting personnel changes and searching for a new naval commander who can find “creative solutions” to develop Russia’s naval activity.[79] Russian sources claimed on March 10 that Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.[80] Humenyuk also stated that Russian missile carriers’ operations in the Black Sea are somewhat limited because Russian maintenance facilities for missile carriers are in occupied Crimea and Russian forces fear Ukrainian strikes on these ships near Crimea.[81]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 12 that Russian forces launched 22 Shahed-136/131 drones at targets in Ukraine on the night of March 11 to 12.[82] Ukrainian forces reportedly downed 17 Shahed drones, including eight drones over Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[83] Ukrainian officers reported that Russian drones struck a hotel in Kharkiv Oblast and an infrastructure facility in Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian drones also struck an energy facility in Brody, Lviv Oblast.[84] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Kh-59 missile over the Black Sea.[85] The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported that Russian forces also struck Selydove, Donetsk Oblast with six S-300 missiles, injuring two civilians.[86]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of an effort to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine. <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bloomberg </em>reported on March 11 that Russian authorities are considering raising the personal income tax from 15 percent to 20 percent for people earning more than five million rubles (about $54,000) annually and raising taxes from 13 percent to 15 percent for those who earn less than five million rubles, according to sources involved in the discussions.[87] Russian authorities are also reportedly considering raising corporate taxes from 20 percent to 25 percent. <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bloomberg </em>reported that sources indicated that the Kremlin is likely to decide on the issue in the summer of 2024 and that the Russian government believes the start of new presidential terms is the best time to pass reforms that are unpopular domestically.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) 2024 Threat Assessment reported on March 11 that China is supporting Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB), including by providing dual-use material and components for weapons.[88] The ODNI reported that trade between China and Russia has been increasing since February 2022 and that China’s exports of goods that can potentially have military uses increased more than three times since 2022.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed on March 12 that a Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Ivanovo Oblast after a fire broke out during takeoff.[89]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine. Kiriyenko and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin visited occupied Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast and inspected the Avdiivka Coke Plant on March 12.[90] Kiriyenko claimed that Russian occupation authorities intend to restore the Avdiivka Coke Plant and claimed that the damage to the plant is not as severe as the damage to the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant in occupied Mariupol.[91] Kiriyenko likely has financial interests in pursuing the building of industrial capacity in occupied Ukraine as Kiriyenko routinely visits occupied Ukrainian territories and even arrived in Mariupol as Russian forces were finishing the seizure of Azovstal in May 2022 as Kremlin-appointed curator for Donbas issues.[92] Kiriyenko and Pushilin also met with the commanders of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR Army Corps).[93] Russian President Vladimir Putin credited the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade for the seizure of Avdiivka on February 17, and its units reportedly continue operating near Avdiivka.[94]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian officials continued to deny Ukraine’s independence and culture, as well as the fact that Russian authorities are illegally deporting Ukrainian children to Russia. Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova claimed on March 12 that there are “no foreign children in Russia” and that “multinationalism is one of the foundations” of Russia.[95] Kherson Oblast occupation governor Vladimir Saldo claimed on March 12 that children in Ukraine “want to live in Russia” because Ukraine is already a “dependent” state that cannot provide for younger generations.[96] The US Department of State announced on March 7 that the United States has joined the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children to support the safe return of Ukrainian children whom Russian authorities have illegally deported or forcibly transferred.[97]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kremlin officials continue efforts to utilize legal mechanisms to legitimize Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. Russian State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin and Senator Sergei Tsekov introduced a bill to the Duma that would invalidate the decision to transfer Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954.[98] Putin similarly signed a law in June 2023 that denounced the 2004 Ukrainian-Russian treaty that included stipulations that the Sea of Azov is historically internal water of both Russia and Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine lost its status as a littoral state of the Sea of Azov when Russia (illegally) annexed Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts in 2022.[99] It is unclear why the Kremlin puts stock in such meaningless maneuvers considering that it has already seized Crimea by force and illegally annexed it. Ex post facto legal manipulations add no real legal legitimacy to Russia’s actions. These actions also ignore the fact that Russia committed to respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea, in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine’s return of Soviet nuclear weapons remaining in Ukraine after the USSR’s collapse.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration Volodymyr Artyuk stated on March 12 that information circulating online about a possible Russian attack in Sumy Oblast is not true and is part of Russian efforts to destabilize and increase panic in Sumy Oblast.[100] Artyuk stated that Ukrainian authorities have not observed any Russian strike groups near the borders with Sumy Oblast. ISW also assesses that Russia has not amassed reserves in the vicinity of Sumy Oblast for any significant military undertaking.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kremlin officials continue to use escalatory rhetoric as part of efforts to deter Western aid provision to Ukraine. The German Bundestag reported on March 11 that all indications surrounding the leaked phone conversation between German military officers discussing the possible provision of Taurus missiles to Ukraine point to a Russian “hack and leak operation.”[101] Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin claimed on March 12 that Russia perceives conversations between German military personnel about possible Ukrainian strikes on Crimea as “aggression” and a “threat to [Russia’s] security” that “leads to the outbreak of full-scale third world war, nuclear [war].”[102] The assertion that discussions of actions not subsequently taken amount to “aggression” is bizarre. ISW continues to assess that Russian nuclear “red lines,” which Ukrainian forces have crossed several times over the course of the war without prompting a Russian nuclear strike, are most likely information operations designed to deter Ukrainian and Western action to defeat Rusia’s invasion of Ukraine.[103]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced on March 12 that Belarusian officials are participating in the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) command and staff training on March 12 and 13.[104]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Special Presidential Representative for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Bakhtiyor Khakimov stated on March 12 that Russia expects Belarus to join the SCO on July 4 and that Belarus’ accession to the SCO will be one of the “key results” of the upcoming summit.[105]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_100.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/12/u-gur-vidreaguvaly-na-padinnya-il-76-v-ivanivskij-oblasti-rf/ ; <a href="https://suspilne/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne</a> dot media/703610-legion-svoboda-rosii-rdk-ta-sibirskij-bataljon-zajsli-na-teritoriu-rf-jdut-boi/ ; <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/703610-legion-svoboda-rosii-rdk-ta-sibirskij-bataljon-zajsli-na-teritoriu-rf-jdut-boi/ ; <a href="https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1115%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1114%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/SiberianBattalion/234" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] <a href="https://www.interfax%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.interfax dot</a> ru/russia/949925 ; <a href="https://www.interfax%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.interfax dot</a> ru/russia/949935 ; <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36547%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36530%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63524%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8176%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8181%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18679%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18682%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://meduza%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36547 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36530 ; http...</a> io/feature/2024/03/12/rossiyskie-voenkory-soobschili-ob-atake-vooruzhennyh-grupp-na-prigranichnye-rayony-belgorodskoy-i-kurskoy-oblastey ; <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58093" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58093</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] <a href="https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12154%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/7180;%C2%A0https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1119%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58093" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12154 ; https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/7180; ...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] <a href="https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1119%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8196%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18693%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116158%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18695%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rusich_army/13574%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rusich_army/13576%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1119 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/819...</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/breakingUAnews/status/1767483937545134143;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/breakingUAnews/status/1767483937545134143;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1767456146871222331%C2%A0https://t.me/andriyshTime/19319;%C2%A0https://t.me/severrealii/23653" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1767456146871222331 https://...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar120823%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar102823%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar062423%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar061323" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar120823 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar102823 ; https:...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8175%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116129%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36388%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/sashakots/45486%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/9991%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/3119%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58109" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8175 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116129...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jamming.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jam...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-25-2023%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/if-west-cuts-aid-ukraine-russia-will-win-if-west-leans-ukraine-can-win" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/if-west-cuts-aid-ukraine-r...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar010924%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar112623%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar010924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112623 ;</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-25-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar020424%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar020324" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020324</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jamming.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jam...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-long-term-path-success-jumpstarting-self-sufficient-defense-industrial-base" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-long-ter...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar011824" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar011824</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar020724" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020724</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclassified_2024_ata_report_0.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclass...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclassified_2024_ata_report_0.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclass...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2024%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar021424%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/03/cia-director-supplemental-ukraine-can-hold-its-own-against-russia/394856/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/03/cia-director-supplemental-ukr...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/12/ukraine-military-aid-package%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukraine/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0 ; https://www.theguardian....</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukraine/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukr...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/pentagon-considering-tapping-last-source-ukraine-funding/index.html%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukraine/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/pentagon-considering-tapping-las...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukraine/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbXuKIKQQV0 ; https://www.cnn.com/2024...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/prezydenty-lytvy-i-francziyi-u-paryzhi-obgovoryat-shlyahy-pryskorennya-pidtrymky-ukrayiny/; <a href="https://twitter.com/GitanasNauseda/status/1767456885433651424" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GitanasNauseda/status/1767456885433651424</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26]<a href="https://www.ouest-france%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.ouest-france dot</a> fr/europe/ukraine/entretien-guerre-en-ukraine-nous-navons-que-tres-peu-de-temps-alerte-la-lituanie-4d5a6816-dd2a-11ee-a459-4d0565cc4317 ; <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/703416-glava-mzs-litvi-pro-vidpravku-zahidnih-vijsk-v-ukrainu-zaraz-same-cas-dla-diskusii/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031124</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] <a href="https://tass%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass dot</a> ru/politika/20211013</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] <a href="https://tass%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass dot</a> ru/politika/20211013</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://tass%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> ru/politika/20211013</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] <a href="https://www.mid%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.mid dot</a> ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1937970/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar012224" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar012224</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar020824%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar020824 ;</a> <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar123023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar123023</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar122823" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar122823</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar122323" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar122323</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar121723" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar121723</a> ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar112823" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar112823</a> ;<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> ; <a href="http://kremlin/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">http://kremlin</a> dot ru/events/president/news/67843</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar011224%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar011024%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar010924%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar010324%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar123023%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar122623%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar121723;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar121723%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar013124%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar012724" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/235918%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36510;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/235918 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36510;</a> <a href="https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17919" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17919</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/235918%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/arbat/1793" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/235918 ; https://t.me/arbat/1793</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] <a href="https://t.me/Hinshtein/5633%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/Hinshtein/5633 ;</a> <a href="https://tass/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass</a> dot ru/armiya-i-opk/20203365</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] <a href="https://t.me/arbat/1792" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/arbat/1792</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://lentv24 dot ru/komanduyushhii-6-i-obshhevoiskovoi-armiei-aleksandr-peryazev-vysoko-ocenil-pomoshh-lenoblasti-v-zone-specoperacii.htm ; <a href="https://www.rbc/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.rbc</a> dot ru/spb_sz/09/05/2023/645a1e239a794702a6a21310 ; <a href="https://newdaynews/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://newdaynews</a> dot ru/ekaterinburg/764291.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] <a href="https://en.odkb-csto%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://en.odkb-csto dot</a> org/documents/documents/dogovor_o_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti/#loaded ; <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-leader-again-threatens-to-leave-russia-led-defense-bloc/32858863.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-leader-again-threatens-to-leave-russia-...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-leader-again-threatens-to-leave-russia-led-defense-bloc/32858863.html%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.azatutyun%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-leader-again-threatens-to-leave-russia-...</a> am/a/32858451.html ; <a href="https://en.armradio/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://en.armradio</a> dot am/2024/03/12/armenian-pm-on-possibility-of-withdrawing-from-csto/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] <a href="https://www.azatutyun%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.azatutyun dot</a> am/a/32858451.html ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] <a href="https://tass%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass dot</a> ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/20205449</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] <a href="https://news%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://news dot</a> am/eng/news/811900.html ; <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030624</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] <a href="https://t.me/tass_agency/236011" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/tass_agency/236011</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8177%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18685" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8177 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18685</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk2zpdZpXXz2wFMVFkVh2j5pqt3gTiL9iPbCD1WwPEECH6jtl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36532%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36536%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36526%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17539%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36371%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58085%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8177" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] <a href="https://t.me/swodki/357540" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/swodki/357540</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/u-kupyansku-okupanty-skynuly-aviabombu-na-bagatopoverhivku-yaki-naslidky/ ; <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/u-kupyansku-okupanty-skynuly-aviabombu-na-bagatopoverhivku-yaki-naslidky/; <a href="https://t.me/mvs_ukraine/35884%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://suspilne%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mvs_ukraine/35884 ; https://suspilne dot</a> media/703662-rf-skinula-aviabombu-po-kupansku-12-berezna-gorila-patipoverhivka/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] <a href="https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4744;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36492" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4744; https://t.me/dva_majors/36492</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36532;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk2zpdZpXXz2wFMVFkVh2j5pqt3gTiL9iPbCD1WwPEECH6jtl;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36532; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] <a href="https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15554;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58078;%C2%A0https://t.me/zvofront/2463%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1767299471593918751?s=20;%C2%A0https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8169;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18685" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15554; https://t.me/rybar/58078;...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] <a href="https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15554" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15554</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36531%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36531 </a>(west of Bakhmut); <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116088%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116088 </a>(Ivanivske); <a href="https://t.me/rusich_army/13578%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rusich_army/13578 </a>(Bakhmut direction)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63500;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63536;%C2%A0https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4734?single;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/creamy_caprice/status/1767302449164075399;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36532;https://t.me/tass_agency/236077;%C2%A0https://t.me/z_arhiv/26254;%C2%A0https://t.me/z_arhiv/26259;%C2%A0https://t.me/vrogov/14696" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63500; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63536; https://t....</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58105;%C2%A0https://t.me/philologist_zov/879" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58105; https://t.me/philologist_zov/879</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk2zpdZpXXz2wFMVFkVh2j5pqt3gTiL9iPbCD1WwPEECH6jtl;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk...</a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/posts/pfbid032UPoatFzG8ij7rmLsLvPyZv9zEKoRdZRrcKftXDf1BcwNUVPB3ZECXT6WoQ1byZ9l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/posts/pfbid032UPoatFzG8ij7rmLs...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18672;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1767596276881768655;%C2%A0https://t.me/Pavliuk_KSV/5394%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8809;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116149" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18672; https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1767596...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/posts/pfbid032UPoatFzG8ij7rmLsLvPyZv9zEKoRdZRrcKftXDf1BcwNUVPB3ZECXT6WoQ1byZ9l;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58078;%C2%A0https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54648%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116078;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18685" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/posts/pfbid032UPoatFzG8ij7rmLs...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58078;%C2%A0https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54659" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58078; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54659</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18672;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18699" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18672; https://t.me/wargonzo/18699</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] <a href="https://t.me/officer_alex34/2242;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767286639846473830;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767287484050735146" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/officer_alex34/2242; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] <a href="https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767287484050735146;%C2%A0https://x.com/moklasen/status/1767303810202964240?s=20;%C2%A0https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4736;%C2%A0https://t.me/z_arhiv/26256" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767287484050735146; https://x.com/...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] <a href="https://t.me/z_arhiv/26246" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/z_arhiv/26246</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/11/na-tavrijskomu-napryamku-tryvaye-rotacziya/; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/eCFlyGetmQU?si=8ZDoYr12wIeubOCb" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.youtube.com/live/eCFlyGetmQU?si=8ZDoYr12wIeubOCb</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk2zpdZpXXz2wFMVFkVh2j5pqt3gTiL9iPbCD1WwPEECH6jtl;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36371%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58085;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18685" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/11964" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/nm_dnr/11964</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36532%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36539;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36532 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36539; https:...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/11/na-pivdni-vorog-pochav-atakuvaty-vremivskyj-vystup/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4M...</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36371" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36371</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58085" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58085</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8168" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8168</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18685" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18685</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8205" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8205</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36494" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36494</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/11/na-pivdni-vorog-pochav-atakuvaty-vremivskyj-vystup/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] <a href="https://t.me/voin_dv/7477%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7477 ;</a> <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63505" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63505</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk2zpdZpXXz2wFMVFkVh2j5pqt3gTiL9iPbCD1WwPEECH6jtl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02t9U4FvTgrMHiP461Qk...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4M...</a> <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36371" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36371</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58085" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58085</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/703616-nasi-pidrozdili-gotovi-protidiati-taktici-vijsk-rf-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] <a href="https://t.me/energoatom_ua/17030" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/energoatom_ua/17030</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-safety-issue-barred-staff-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-says-iaea-chief-2024-03-12/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-safety-issue-barred-staff-zapori...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/12/u-vms-zsu-rozpovily-pro-znyshhenyj-u-rajoni-kinburskoyi-kosy-rosijskyj-tanker-mehanik-pogodin/ ; <a href="https://suspilne/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne</a> dot media/703748-na-mikolaivsini-znisili-rosijskij-tanker-mehanik-pogodin/ ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02mbrNkyitAJz7HTPXvqrcpK8Gigmr5J8YJx2RcBXzhsZhSs3rV6yPdcmk5DtB8Pk2l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02mbrNkyitAJz7HTPXvq...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02mbrNkyitAJz7HTPXvqrcpK8Gigmr5J8YJx2RcBXzhsZhSs3rV6yPdcmk5DtB8Pk2l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02mbrNkyitAJz7HTPXvq...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jmsu.htm" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jmsu.htm</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] <a href="https://armyinform.com%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform.com dot</a> ua/2024/03/12/u-sylah-oborony-prokomentuvaly-zminy-u-kerivnycztvi-rosijskogo-flotu/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar031024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar031024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[81] <a href="https://armyinform.com/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform.com</a> dot ua/2024/03/12/u-sylah-oborony-prokomentuvaly-zminy-u-kerivnycztvi-rosijskogo-flotu/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[82] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[83] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWaSMjUhQ3eMWwCrzr2MDa7ngwcfWDN2oDXEcrXynEWupCmNpl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NGCDoNKeHsrikdbkD4MbBtbb6biN5fu6QTFnNN1YZPa3yCP4X9q5Ksbc7ewfpBbPl%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rXDdTnV5q4XJPNdJWa...</a> <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/12/na-pivdni-ppo-vnochi-znyshhyla-vorozhu-raketu-h-59-ta-8-shahediv/ ; <a href="https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7075%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0Rbpkww7A8R95eD4igpKptFVsFWA1kra6WdkTQgSCCcrp2mfG7or51HS64dsUp2ubl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7075 ; https://www.facebook.com/OperationalComm...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[84] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36409%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58103%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://suspilne%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36409 ; https://t.me/rybar/58103 ; https://s...</a> media/703622-na-ternopilsini-cerez-ataku-saheda-stalas-pozeza-aa-situacia-stanom-zaraz/ ; <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/703806-obstril-ternopilsini-sahedami-so-kazut-miscevi-ziteli/; <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/704002-u-harkovi-usunuli-naslidki-ataki-sahediv-11-berezna-terehov/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[85] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/03/12/na-pivdni-ppo-vnochi-znyshhyla-vorozhu-raketu-h-59-ta-8-shahediv/ ; <a href="https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7075%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7075 ;</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0Rbpkww7A8R95eD4igpKptFVsFWA1kra6WdkTQgSCCcrp2mfG7or51HS64dsUp2ubl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0Rbpkww7A8R9...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[86] <a href="https://t.me/Donetsk_obl_prokuratura/2378%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://suspilne%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/Donetsk_obl_prokuratura/2378 ; https://suspilne dot</a> media/703584-vijskovi-rf-vnoci-obstrilali-selidove-e-poraneni/; <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/rosiyany-unochi-vypustyly-po-selydovomu-6-raket-s-300-ye-poraneni/; <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/naslidky-rosijskogo-obstrilu-selydovogo-poshkodzheno-48-zhytlovyh-budynkiv/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[87] <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-11/russia-weighs-tax-hikes-to-fund-war-in-ukraine-after-election?srnd=europe-politics" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-11/russia-weighs-tax-hik...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[88] <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassifi...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[89] <a href="https://t.me/rian_ru/234951%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63534%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/sashakots/45479%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58090%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63531;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36447%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36452%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36455" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rian_ru/234951 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63534 ; https:/...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[90] <a href="https://t.me/PushilinDenis/4402" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/PushilinDenis/4402</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[91] <a href="https://t.me/PushilinDenis/4402%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18690" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/PushilinDenis/4402 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18690</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[92] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[93] <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18690" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18690</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[94] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724</a> ; <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[95] <a href="https://t.me/malvovabelova/2927" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/malvovabelova/2927</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[96] <a href="https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2475" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2475</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[97] <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-joins-the-international-coalition-for-the-return-of-ukrainian-children/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-joins-the-international-coalitio...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[98] <a href="https://tass%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass dot</a> ru/politika/20203521</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[99] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar120523" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar120523</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[100] <a href="https://armyinform%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform dot</a> com.ua/2024/03/12/u-sumskij-ova-prokomentuvaly-informacziyu-pro-novyj-masovanyj-nastup-rosiyan/ ; <a href="https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24871" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24871</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[101] <a href="https://www.bundestag%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.bundestag dot</a> de/presse/pressemitteilungen/2024/993016-993016</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[102] <a href="https://tass%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass dot</a> ru/politika/20209755</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[103] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar030924" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar030924</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[104] <a href="https://t.me/modmilby/36861" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/modmilby/36861</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[105] <a href="https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239278%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/belta_telegramm/239278 ; https://www dot</a> belta.by/society/view/v-rossii-ne-somnevajutsja-chto-belarus-4-ijulja-vstupit-v-shos-620791-2024/; <a href="https://tass/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass</a> dot ru/politika/20209921 </p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-81961221846384060602024-03-12T19:33:00.002-04:002024-03-12T19:33:07.362-04:00 Iran Update, March 12, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Elizabeth Volynsky-Lauzon, Anne McGill, Kathryn Tyson, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern and Central Gaza Strip: </strong>The IDF 162nd Division continued to operate in the northern and central Gaza Strip.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Gaza Strip: </strong>Palestinian militias continued to conduct a deliberate defense of Hamad neighborhood, northern Khan Younis.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Political Negotiations: </strong>The Qatari foreign affairs minister said that Israel and Hamas are “nowhere near a deal” regarding a ceasefire deal and prisoner-for-hostage exchange.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani alluded to the need for Hamas to “negotiate firmly” in the ceasefire negotiations, possibly indicating support for Hamas’ maximalist position.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani claimed that the Israeli fear of Palestinian operations in the West Bank “reached its peak” in the current Persian calendar year (March 2023-March 2024) during an interview with Iranian state media.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>Lebanese Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets targeting Israeli forces in the Golan Heights.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure in Beqaa and Baalbek Governorates.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq: </strong>The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport in Lod, Israel.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq and Syria: </strong>The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) assessed that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will “almost certainly” resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>The Houthi movement launched two anti-ship missiles on March 11 that targeted a Singaporean-owned, Liberian-flagged merchant vessel in the Red Sea.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US CENTCOM confirmed that it conducted preemptive strikes targeting 18 Houthi anti-ship missiles and an unmanned underwater vessel in Houthi-controlled Yemen.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 162nd Division continued to operate in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) located and destroyed rocket launchers that Palestinian fighters previously used to launch rockets into Israel.[2] Israeli forces directed an airstrike in the area targeting Palestinian fighters who had launched two rockets at them.[3]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Palestinian activist separately reported sounds of clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters south of Gaza City on March 12.[4]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias continued to conduct a deliberate defense of Hamad neighborhood, northern Khan Younis, on March 12. </strong>Three IDF brigades have been clearing Hamad of Palestinian fighters and military infrastructure since March 3.[5] The IDF had intelligence that Palestinian fighters retreated from other areas in Khan Younis to hide in Hamad.[6] Israeli forces directed airstrikes to kill Palestinian cells and located weapons in buildings during clearing operations on March 12.[7] Four Palestinian militias claimed attacks targeting Israeli forces in Hamad using mortars, rocket-propelled grenades, and other unspecified explosive devices.[8]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued clearing operations in other sectors of northern Khan Younis on March 12. The IDF Bislamach Brigade have killed over 100 Palestinian fighters by sniper fire, mortar and shell fire, and airstrikes over the past two weeks in Qarara, northern Khan Younis, and in eastern Khan Younis.[9] Israeli forces located infrastructure, weapons, combat equipment, and a drone launcher.[10] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters detonated an explosively-rigged tunnel and a house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces in Qarara.[11] The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wall Street Journal </em>published a map of the tunnel network in the Gaza Strip from 2014, which does not include any tunnels in Qarara.[12] The <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Times</em> reported in January 2023 that the IDF now believes that there are more tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip than previously thought.[13]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Qatari Foreign Affairs Minister said on March 12 that Israel and Hamas are “nowhere near a deal” regarding a ceasefire deal and prisoner-for-hostage exchange.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The minister also noted that Qatar is engaged in a “constructive” dialogue with Israel and Hamas. CIA Director William Burns said on March 12 that a potential ceasefire deal “is still a possibility” despite the difficult process of negotiations.[15] Hamas’ maximalist demands for a permanent ceasefire, return of displaced people, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and sufficient humanitarian aid do not align with Israeli plans to continue clearing operations in the Gaza Strip until Hamas is defeated.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli media reported that Senior Hamas Political Bureau official Mohammad Nazzal told al Jazeera that ceasefire negotiations are ongoing.[16] Nazzal said that the talks ”had reached an impasse“ but that international mediators are continuing their work. He also accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of impeding progress on negotiations and affirmed that there will be no deal until Israel agrees to Hamas’ terms.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani alluded to the need for Hamas to “negotiate firmly” in the ceasefire negotiations, possibly indicating support for the maximalist position that Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh presented on March 10.[17]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant put forth the head of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) General Intelligence Service, Majed Faraj, as a candidate to temporarily manage civilian life in the Gaza Strip.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Faraj is a member of Fatah‘s Revolutionary Council and considered a possible successor to PA President Mahmoud Abbas.[19] Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently opposed the PA’s involvement in governing the Gaza Strip.[20] However, his post-war plan does not explicitly rule out the role for the PA.[21] Israel previously discussed turning to former PA security official Mohammad Dahlan for governance in the Gaza Strip.[22] Dahlan said in a November 2023 interview with <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Time </em>that he would not participate in a future Palestinian government but that he would help rebuild the Palestinian political system.[23]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israel reported that a Palestinian fighter launched mortars from the southern Gaza Strip into Israel on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Palestinian militias have not claimed the attack at the time of this writing. Israeli forces monitored the source of fire and directed an airstrike to target the perpetrator. The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting military infrastructure in the strip in retaliation for the attack.[25]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 11.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades detonated an IED in the Psagot settlement on March 11.[27] An unspecified individual separately attempted to stab an Israeli civilian in Givat Ronen.[28]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces detained 10 wanted individuals during operations across the West Bank on March 12.[29] The IDF said that Israeli forces detained PIJ fighter Mehdi Fayyad, who has conducted previous attacks on Israeli forces, according to the IDF.[30] Israeli forces also located four lathes for manufacturing weapons in Urif village south of Nablus.[31]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani claimed that the Israeli fear of Palestinian operations in the West Bank “reached its peak” in the current Persian calendar year (March 2023-March 2024) during an interview with Iranian state media on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32]</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 14 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March </strong>1<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1.</strong>[33] Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets targeting Israeli forces in the Golan Heights.[34] This attack was one of the largest Hezbollah has conducted since the war began.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure in Beqaa and Baalbek Governorates, Lebanon, on March 11 and March 12, respectively.[35] The Baalbek Governorate is approximately 100 km north of the Israel-Lebanon border.[36] The IDF said that the strikes were in response to Hezbollah’s attacks targeting northern Israel. The IDF separately published a summary of its air campaign in Lebanon and Syria over the past five months.[37] The IDF reported that its attacks in northern Lebanon “harm Hezbollah’s air and ground capabilities as well as its top command.”</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An unspecified Lebanese Hezbollah parliamentary source said that the group is “prepared for any expansion of hostilities” with Israel in a statement to al Araby on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38]</strong> The source said that “Hezbollah will not be silent about the Israeli attacks.” Hezbollah launched at least 60 rockets targeting an IDF site in the Golan Heights on February 26 in retaliation for the IDF’s only other airstrike near Baalbek.[39]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah met with a delegation of Hamas officials in Beirut, Lebanon, on March 12.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40]</strong> Hamas’ Deputy Political Bureau leader for the Gaza Strip Khalil al Hayya led discussions on Hamas’ operations in the Gaza Strip as well as on the Israel-Hamas negotiations. Nasrallah and the Hamas delegation discussed the developments in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as well as the ”multiple support fronts,” likely referring to the Iranian-backed attacks from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting Israel.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Amir al Shammari discussed “security and training” cooperation with Russian Ambassador to Iraq Elbrus Kutrashev in Baghdad on March 12, possibly as part of a Russian effort to supplant the United States as a security guarantor in Iraq.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Kutrashev has met with at least six Iraqi officials, including senior security leaders, since January 2024.[42] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia may be setting conditions to try to supplant the United States in anticipation of the United States reducing its military presence there.[43] Kutrashev previously told Russian media in January 2024 that Russia seeks to expand its “presence” in Iraq and “invest additional resources in areas related to security.”[44] The Iraqi Interior Ministry, which is largely controlled by the Iranian-backed Badr Organization, is responsible for domestic law enforcement and oversees the Federal Police.[45] Shammari is affiliated with the Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi political parties—and previously served as the deputy commander of the Joint Operations Command for Iraq.[46]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport in Lod, Israel, on March 11.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</strong> The group described the attack as part of its “second phase of operations” to support Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.[48] CTP-ISW previously reported that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq appears to have refocused its attacks to target primarily Israel rather than US forces for the moment.[49] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has not attacked US forces since February 4 but has claimed 10 attacks targeting Israel during this same period.[50] It is unclear, however, how many of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s attacks targeting Israel have succeeded.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Jordanian armed forces reportedly intercepted the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s drone after it entered Jordanian airspace from Syria.[51] A Jordanian security official stated on March 12 that the Jordanian armed forces had located drone fragments near the city of Irbid near the Jordan-Syria border.[52]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%2012%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim al Araji claimed that ending the US-led international coalition mission in Iraq will not affect NATO’s mission in Iraq during a meeting with the Dutch, German, Italian, and NATO mission ambassadors to Iraq on March 11.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53]</strong> Washington and Baghdad began talks to evaluate the status of the US-led international coalition in Iraq in late January 2024.[54] Araji called for greater cooperation between the NATO Mission in Iraq and the Iraqi defense and interior ministries.[55] An Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee member separately claimed on March 12 that the NATO Mission in Iraq does not present “a threat to Iraq’s security and stability” like the US-led international coalition allegedly does.[56]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) assessed that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will “almost certainly” resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The ODNI published its findings in the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment on March 11.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>These militias suspended their attacks targeting US forces following a one-way drone attack that killed three US servicemembers in northeastern Jordan in late January 2024.[58] IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad after the attack and instructed the militias to pause their attacks. Numerous Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have signaled in recent weeks that they will resume conducting attacks targeting US forces in the region.[59] The ODNI’s assessment is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are using US support for Israel in the current war as an excuse to attack US forces. The militias’ actual objective of these attacks is to advance Iran’s long-standing effort to erode US influence in the Middle East.[60] Iran and its Axis of Resistance will almost certainly continue their decades-long effort to expel US forces from the Middle East regardless of whether there is a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas war.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ODNI assessed in its annual report on March 11 that Iran is not currently pursuing nuclear weapons.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The DNI stated specifically that Iran is not conducting the “key nuclear weapons-development activities” for a testable nuclear explosive. The DNI also stated that Iran will likely pursue further nuclear advancements to “build negotiating leverage” and in response to “additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program.”</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran has continued to expand its nuclear program since 2021. Iran has produced enriched uranium metal at its uranium conversion facility in Esfahan.[62] Enriched uranium metal can be used to develop the core for nuclear weapons.[63] Iran has also stockpiled several significant quantities (or bombs’ worth) of highly enriched uranium, which it can use in a nuclear weapon.[64] Iran has additionally amassed a large stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which it can enrich to higher levels in a short period of time given its current enrichment capacity.[65] The graph below illustrates Iran’s current uranium stockpile, the number of significant quantities therein, and how quickly it can enrich those stockpiles to weapons-grade uranium:</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/U235%20Stockpiles%20Graph.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="280" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/U235%20Stockpiles%20Graph.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The above graph reflects the estimates reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency in its November 2023 verification and monitoring report.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Houthi movement launched two anti-ship missiles on March 11 that targeted a Singaporean-owned, Liberian-flagged merchant vessel in the Red Sea.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>US CENTCOM confirmed that the missiles did not impact the merchant vessel, <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Pinocchio</em>.[67] The Houthi military spokesperson falsely claimed that the vessel is an “American ship.” The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a vessel in the Red Sea on March 11.[68]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Houthi military spokesperson said on March 11 that the group will escalate its military operations during Ramadan, which he called the “month of Jihad.”</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69]</strong> The spokesperson was presumably referring to Houthi attacks targeting international shipping and Israel. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi previously alluded to an expansion of attacks on March 7.[70]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US CENTCOM confirmed that it conducted preemptive strikes targeting 18 Houthi anti-ship missiles and an unmanned underwater vessel in Houthi-controlled Yemen on March 11.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[71]</strong> CTP-ISW previously reported the preemptive strikes impacted around Ras Issa, al Urj, and Jabanah in Hudaydah Governorate on March 11.[72]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Western media reported on March 12 that the European Union is prepared to impose “new and significant measures” against Iran in response to reports that Iran may transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[73]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Reuters reported that EU leaders expressed concern in a draft conclusion for their upcoming March 21-22 summit that “Iran may transfer ballistic missiles and related technology to Russia.” Reuters also reported that the European Union in the draft text called on unspecified third parties to cease “providing material support to Russia” and that the European Union “is prepared to respond swiftly. . . with new and significant measures against Iran,” including further sanctions.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian sources told Reuters on February 21 that Iran provided hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to Russia in early January 2024.[74] The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson said on February 21 that Ukraine does not possess any information confirming that Iran has transferred missiles to Russia.[75] The US National Security Council spokesperson similarly said on February 22 that the United States has yet to confirm that Iran has transferred missiles to Russia.[76]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The United States and Bahrain jointly sanctioned several Iran-based individuals on March 12 for supporting the Iranian-backed al Ashtar Brigades</strong>.[77] The US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) noted that the sanctions are meant to demonstrate “the critical role that the Iranian regime plays in providing support to Al-Ashtar Brigades.” OFAC and Bahrain sanctioned the following Iran-based individuals:</p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hussein Ahmad Abdallah Ahmad Hussein Al Dammami for facilitating “lethal aid” into Bahrain to support the al Ashtar Brigades</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Al Ashtar Brigades member Ali Abdulnabi Ahmed Ebrahim M Alshofa for facilitating “lethal aid”</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Al Ashtar Brigades member Hasan Ahmed Radhi Husain Sarhan for “plotting terrorist operations” in Bahrain</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Al Ashtar Brigades financier Isa Saleh Isa Mohamed Salman for involvement in money transfers</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The al Ashtar Brigades is an Iranian-backed Shia militant group operating in Bahrain.[78] The US State Department previously designated the al Ashtar Brigades as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2018.[79]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on March 12 his call for Muslim countries to cut political and economic ties with Israel.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[80]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Khamenei also reiterated his calls for Muslim countries to help Palestinians. Khamenei has repeatedly called on Muslim states to impose an international embargo on Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[81] Khamenei further expressed his desire for the Axis of Resistance to destroy the Israeli state.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_101.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463953393647701" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463953393647701</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463955075604850" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463955075604850</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463956694667541" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463956694667541</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] <a href="https://t.me/hamza20300/221992" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/hamza20300/221992</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188165642805459;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188165642805459;</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-3-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-3-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] <a href="https://www.idf/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idf</a> dot il/184023</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463943335756244;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463943335756244;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463953393647701" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463953393647701</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5998;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5998;</a> <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5997;%C2%A0https://t.me/sarayaps/17558;%C2%A0https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1754;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5997; https://t.me/sarayaps/17558; https://t....</a> <a href="https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4167" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4167</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767498402181357734" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767498402181357734</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767498402181357734" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767498402181357734</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] <a href="https://t.me/sarayaps/17559" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17559</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-biden/card/map-shows-labyrinth-of-tunnels-made-by-hamas-under-gaza-identified-by-israel-IieNDixn5Bs78HeUi46v" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-biden/card/map-shows-l...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/israel-gaza-tunnels.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/israel-gaza-tunnels.html</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] <a href="https://twitter.com/BeckyCNN/status/1767554524107948037" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/BeckyCNN/status/1767554524107948037</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] <a href="https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-12-24/h_68d23aacaed0f3896b3262e2a8572009" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-1...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] <a href="https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1767413698128126214?s=20" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1767413698128126214?s=20</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] <a href="https://defapress/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://defapress</a> dot ir/fa/news/656593 ; <a href="https://www.tasnimnews/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.tasnimnews</a> dot com/fa/news/1402/12/22/3053987/ ; <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-11-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-11-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] <a href="https://www.kan/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.kan</a> dot org.il/content/kan-news/politic/720623/; <a href="https://jcpa/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://jcpa</a> dot org/the-battle-for-succession-in-the-palestinian-authority/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/majed_faraj/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/majed_faraj/</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/12/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/netanyahu-palestinian-authority?smid=url-share" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/12/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/23/netanyahu-gaza-war-palestinian-authority-reconstruction" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.axios.com/2024/02/23/netanyahu-gaza-war-palestinian-authorit...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] <a href="https://www.mako/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.mako</a> dot co.il/news-columns/2023_q4/Article-6c8738498209c81026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=1714799902</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] <a href="https://time.com/6337833/mohammed-dahlan-exclusive-palestine-israel/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://time.com/6337833/mohammed-dahlan-exclusive-palestine-israel/</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463950759694632" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463950759694632</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463950759694632" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767463950759694632</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5992%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5993%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5995%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/hamza20300/222041%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/sarayajneen/1210%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/alqassam_jenin/614" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5992 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5993 ; http...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5994" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5994</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767592147199397961" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767592147199397961</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487204320837833" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487204320837833</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487204320837833" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487204320837833</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487206430564620" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767487206430564620</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] <a href="https://defapress/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://defapress</a> dot ir/fa/news/656593 ; <a href="https://www.tasnimnews/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.tasnimnews</a> dot com/fa/news/1402/12/22/3053987/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2576" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2576</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767443727268577434" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767443727268577434</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2579" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2579</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2584%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mmirleb/2590%C2%A0,%C2%A0https://t.me/mmirleb/2591%C2%A0,%C2%A0https://t.me/mmirleb/2593%C2%A0,%C2%A0https://t.me/mmirleb/2595%C2%A0,%C2%A0https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767601191943372878%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mmirleb/2597" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2584 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2590 , https://t.me...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2576;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767443727268577434;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1767435907773149583%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.haaretz%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2576; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767443...</a> com/israel-news/2024-03-12/ty-article/idf-strikes-hezbollah-stronghold-deep-in-lebanon-100-rockets-fired-at-northern-israel/0000018e-3263-df45-afaf-3f7775df0000</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767515424416031095;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767515424416031095;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767315659862536244/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767315659862536244/</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767515424416031095;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767515424416031095;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767315659862536244/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767315659862536244/</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] <a href="https://www.idf%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.idf dot</a> il/185274</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] <a href="https://www.alaraby%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.alaraby dot</a> co.uk/politics/%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%87%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B9?blockId=block_114345</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2283;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1762176222828576944;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1762075311716356395%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2283; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1762...</a> <a href="https://t.me/C_Military1/46421" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/46421</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] <a href="https://t.me/QudsN/380843;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1767436731341475846?s=20" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/QudsN/380843; https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1767436...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] <a href="https://ninanews/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://ninanews</a> dot com/Website/News/Details?Key=1112567</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-20-2024;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-20-2024;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-6-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-6-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-20-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-20-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] <a href="https://tass/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://tass</a> dot com/politics/1737141</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] <a href="https://www.state.gov/reports/2022-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/iraq/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.state.gov/reports/2022-country-reports-on-human-rights-pract...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] <a href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/igphoto/2002423918/;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/igphoto/2002423918/;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-3-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-3-2023</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] <a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] <a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-7-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-7-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] <a href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-services-committee-hearing-posture-of-united-states-central-comman/;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-s...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/957;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/957;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/961;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/961;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/963;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/963;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/966;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/966;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/969;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/969;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/982;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/982;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/985;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/985;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/988</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] <a href="https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1767359838437208399?s=20" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1767359838437208399?s=20</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] <a href="https://petra.gov/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://petra.gov</a> dot jo/Include/InnerPage.jsp?ID=57986&lang=en&name=en_news&cat=en_news</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] <a href="https://baghdadtoday/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://baghdadtoday</a> dot news/244642-على-غرار-التحالف-الدولي.-العراق-يخطط-لإنهاء-مهمّة-الناتو-ليس-لها-أعمال-عسكرية.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iraq-us-talks-to-end-coalition-mission-f782db4c6550ab31ef02ef3c1793ee7b" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://apnews.com/article/iraq-us-talks-to-end-coalition-mission-f782db...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] <a href="https://baghdadtoday/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://baghdadtoday</a> dot news/244642-على-غرار-التحالف-الدولي.-العراق-يخطط-لإنهاء-مهمّة-الناتو-ليس-لها-أعمال-عسكرية.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] <a href="https://baghdadtoday/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://baghdadtoday</a> dot news/244642-على-غرار-التحالف-الدولي.-العراق-يخطط-لإنهاء-مهمّة-الناتو-ليس-لها-أعمال-عسكرية.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassifi...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] <a href="https://t.me/centerkaf/4214" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/centerkaf/4214</a> ;</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://almadapaper/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://almadapaper</a> dot net/view.php?cat=307114</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-26-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-26-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-12-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-12-2024</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/ATA-2024-Unclass...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] <a href="https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/irans-recent-irreversible-nuclear-advances" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/irans-recent-irreversible-nu...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-reports-iranian-progress-uranium-metal-despite-western-objections-2021-08-16/#:~:text=Iran" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-reports-iranian-progress-...</a>'s%20work%20on%20enriched%20uranium,new%20type%20of%20reactor%20fuel.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/11/gov2023-57.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/11/gov2023-57.pdf</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/11/gov2023-57.pdf" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/11/gov2023-57.pdf</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] <a href="https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1767347733495456102" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1767347733495456102</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] <a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] <a href="https://twitter.com/uk_mto/status/1767151895498334213?s=61&t=OFZsSFauRzJ05qCV8DAjAg" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/uk_mto/status/1767151895498334213?s=61&t=OFZsSFauRzJ...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] <a href="https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1767352523524825130" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1767352523524825130</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] <a href="https://twitter.com/Moh_Alhouthi/status/1765750762720686537" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Moh_Alhouthi/status/1765750762720686537</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] <a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1767378223237562494</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] <a href="https://isw.pub/IranUpdate031124" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/IranUpdate031124</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mull-measures-against-iran-over-possible-missile-transfers-russia-draft-2024-03-12/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mull-measures-against-iran-over-possibl...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missi...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] <a href="https://armyinform/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://armyinform</a> dot com.ua/2024/02/21/yurij-ignat-prokomentuvav-informacziyu-pro-peredachu-iranom-400-balistychnyh-raket-rosiyi/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-warns-iran-against-providing-ballistic-missiles-russia-2024-02-22/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/us-warns-iran-against-providing-ballistic-...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2171" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2171</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] <a href="https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/aab_fto.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/aab_fto.html</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2171" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2171</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] <a href="https://twitter.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/1767567327527141534%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/1767567327527141534 ;</a> <a href="https://nournews/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://nournews</a> dot ir/en/news/167390/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[81] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-khamenei-calls-upon-muslim-countries-boycott-israel-2023-11-01/%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-december-23-2023#_edn6dbad19fd1aca00d26208f36768c965e56" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-khamenei-calls-upon-musl...</a></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-73749641018141893482024-03-11T21:54:00.008-04:002024-03-11T21:54:37.369-04:00Iran Update, March 11, 2024<p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Anne McGill, Karolina Hird, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Palestinian fighters mortared Israeli forces in Gaza City at least four times.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Central Gaza Strip: </strong>The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Hamas’ military deputy commander, Marwan Issa, in Nuseirat.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Gaza Strip: </strong>Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Political Negotiations:</strong> Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh presented Hamas’ comprehensive demands in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in a speech marking the start of Ramadan.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank:</strong> Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least eight times.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Syria: </strong>Iranian officials expressed their displeasure with the Syrian Bashar al Assad regime’s failure to implement its economic agreements with Iran.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>Houthi-affiliated media reported that the United States and United Kingdom conducted airstrikes targeting three locations in Yemen.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran: </strong>Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt-2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11-15.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters mortared Israeli forces in Gaza City at least four times since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 10</strong>. The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired mortars targeting Israeli forces east of Beit Hanoun on March 10.[1] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah, separately claimed mortar attacks targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun neighborhood.[2] PIJ also claimed a mortar attack targeting IDF troops south of Gaza City.[3] The IDF reported that its Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) killed 15 Palestinian fighters south of Gaza City.[4]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">An IDF Navy helicopter destroyed an unspecified Palestinian vessel near Gaza City on March 11.[5]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Hamas’ military deputy commander, Marwan Issa, in Nuseirat on March 11.</strong> Israeli media reported that Issa was in an underground tunnel in Nuseirat.[6] The IDF did not confirm whether the airstrike killed Issa.[7] The airstrike killed five Palestinians and wounded ten more.[8] Israeli journalists described Issa as the third most senior official in Hamas in the Gaza Strip.[9] Issa worked closely with Hamas’ leader for the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, and the head of Hamas’ military, Mohammad Deif, to plan the October 7 attack.[10]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis on March 11. </strong>The IDF 89th Commando Brigade detained Palestinian fighters and seized weapons and other military equipment in apartment buildings in Hamad.[11] Palestinian fighters fired an anti-tank guided missile at IDF Givati Brigade soldiers in Hamad, after which IDF Maglan Unit soldiers identified and killed the fighters.[12] The Egoz Unit (89th Commando Brigade) clashed with Palestinian fighters in Hamad.[13] The IDF 7th Armored Brigade raided tunnels and weapon assembly sites in Hamad to find explosives, intelligence materials, and small arms.[14] The 7th Brigade has detained dozens of Palestinian fighters, who tried to escape with evacuating civilians since the beginning of Israeli operations in Hamad.[15] The IDF Bislamach Brigade separately targeted Palestinian fighters with aerial, sniper, and tank fire in Qarara on March 11.[16]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias claimed only one attack targeting Israeli forces around Khan Younis on March 11. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), which is a leftist Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war, targeted Israeli armor with an IED in Hamad.[17]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh presented Hamas’ comprehensive demands in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in a speech marking the start of Ramadan on March 10. </strong>Haniyeh presented five maximalist demands for a hostage-for-prisoner exchange. Haniyeh proposed a comprehensive ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, the complete and unconditional return of displaced Gazans, and the resolution of humanitarian issues, including relief, shelter, and reconstruction, and ending restrictions on the movement of people and goods out of the Gaza Strip.[18] Haniyeh said that the Hamas leadership would reject any agreement that does not meet these demands. Haniyeh’s framework is consistent with Hamas’ public demands over the past week.[19] Hamas’ unwillingness to negotiate on these issues is corroborated by statements from Israeli negotiators.[20] Some of the demands, particularly the permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, remain an obstacle in the ongoing negotiations.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Haniyeh also laid out a proposal for a post-war unified Palestinian government that would include Hamas. Haniyeh called for elections to form a temporary national consensus government until legislative and presidential elections and a Palestinian National Council can be held.[21] Haniyeh presented a vision of an independent Palestinian state comprised of the Gaza Strip and West Bank with the right of return and self-determination.[22] Several Palestinian factions, including Hamas, met in Moscow on February 29 to discuss the formation of a new Palestinian government.[23] Hamas claimed that the talks were constructive, but Fatah leaders were less optimistic, expressing concerns of an international boycott against any government that includes Hamas.[24] Fatah currently leads the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Haniyeh also called for Palestinians to “protect Jerusalem and al Aqsa Mosque” during Ramadan from any Israeli “conspiracies” to restrict access to these areas.[25] Haniyeh’s statement mirrors his and other Hamas leaders’ rhetoric to “storm” and “march to” al Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan over the past several weeks.[26] Haniyeh rejected the Israeli claim that Palestinian militia groups do not want a ceasefire during Ramadan because they intend to use popular anger to “revolutionize the West Bank.”[27]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 11.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least eight times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 10.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it detonated IEDs and fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in Tulkarm and Nablus on March 10.[29]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on March 11 that Iran is actively attempting to orchestrate terror attacks by smuggling weapons into the West Bank.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30]</strong> Gallant also said that Israel must prepare for an ”increase in terror” during Ramadan, which began on March 10. Israel has repeatedly thwarted attempts to smuggle Iranian-made weapons from Jordan into Israel and the West Bank over the past year.[31]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 10.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32]</strong> Hezbollah claimed that it launched four drones targeting Israeli forces at the Kila barracks in the Golan Heights.[33] The IDF said that it detected two drone, which landed in open areas.[34]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The secretary of the Iranian Supreme Free Trade Zones Council said on March 6 that Iran, Iraq, and Syria are continuing talks to establish a trilateral free trade zone.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The secretary noted that the joint free trade zone would facilitate Iranian access to the Mediterranean Sea. Iran and Syria resumed negotiations over the establishment of a joint free trade zone after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Syria in May 2023.[36] The Supreme Free Trade Zones Council secretary said at the time that negotiations had entered a “technical and implementation stage.”[37] CTP-ISW previously assessed that a free trade zone through Iran, Iraq, and Syria would allow Iran to move materials across borders without oversight that would normally enforce sanctions on trade with Iran and Syria.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian officials expressed their displeasure with the Syrian Bashar al Assad regime’s failure to implement its economic agreements with Iran.</strong> A senior Iranian member of the Iran-Syria Commerce Chamber said on March 3 that Syria has not fulfilled its part of trade agreements with Iran despite “several meetings” and called on Syria to pay “special attention.”[39] The Iranian Trade Development director general for West Asia similarly noted on March 3 that Iranian exports to Syria declined in 2023.[40] Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Syrian President Bashar al Assad signed 15 economic cooperations agreement in May 2023, covering banking, communications technology, energy, reconstruction, and transportation.[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Houthi-affiliated media reported that the United States and United Kingdom conducted airstrikes targeting three locations in Yemen on March 11.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The strikes reportedly occurred around Ras Issa, al Urj, and Jabanah in Hudaydah Governorate. Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom have confirmed the strikes as the time of this writing.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2011%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt-2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11-15.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43]</strong> Kremlin-affiliated outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Izvestia </em>reported on March 11 that a detachment ships of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, including the <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Varyag </em>Slava-class cruiser, arrived at Iran’s Chabahar Port to participate in Maritime Security Belt-2024 alongside Iranian and Chinese naval detachments.[44] The exercise, which was first held in 2019, is intended to practice safe combined naval maneuvers to ensure safe maritime economic activity.[45] The Russian <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Marshal Shaposhnikov</em> Udaloy-class destroyer; the Chinese <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ürümqi </em>destroyer, <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Linyi </em>frigate, <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Dongpinghu </em>replenishment ship; and 10 unnamed Iranian ships, boats, and supply vessels and three naval helicopters are taking part in the exercise.[46] Representatives of Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, India, and South Africa will observe the exercise.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei awarded the Order of Fath medal (otherwise known as the Victory Medal) to IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami and Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi on March 10.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Khamenei awarded Salami and Mousavi for “improving the defense, combat, and deterrence power” of the Iranian armed forces, according to Khamenei‘s website.[48] Notable recipients of this aware include former IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, former IRGC Commander Major General Mohmmad Ali Jafari, IRGC Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, and former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Western media reported on March 11 that Iran increased its export of liquefied petroleum gas by 28 percent in 2023.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Bloomberg noted that Iran has now become the largest Middle Eastern exporter of liquified petroleum gas, largely driven by increased production in the South Pars gas field and a greater shipping capacity between Iran and China. Iranian oil production similarly increased to an all-time high of three million barrels per day in late 2023.[51] Iran exported most of that crude to China. The National Iranian Oil Company chief executive said on March 11 that 2.5 billion barrels were added to Iran’s natural gas and crude oil reserves in 2023.[52]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iranian deputy foreign affairs minister for policy met with the Armenian deputy foreign affairs minister in Tehran on March 11.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53]</strong> The two officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war, economic cooperation, and regional security in the Caucasus. The Iranian official warned against foreign interference in the Caucasus, referring to the long-held Iranian assertion that Israel and Turkey are expanding their geopolitical influence there via Azerbaijan.[54] Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani similarly warned against extra-regional interference in the Caucasus during their separate meetings with Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan in Tehran on March 6 and 7.[55] The Iranian regime has historically accused Baku of allowing Israel to use Azerbaijani territory to launch operations against Iran.[56] Iran has provided security assistance, including drone sales, to Armenia previously as part of its effort to push back against<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Azerbaijan.[57]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iranian foreign affairs minister’s senior adviser met with the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry’s Middle East and North Africa development director in Tehran on March 11.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[58]</strong> The two officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war and called for the continuation of political processes to end conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen. The Iranian official warned that continued American and British strikes targeting Houthi military capabilities would “disrupt peace efforts” in Yemen. Iranian and Russian officials have engaged in political coordination vis-a-vis the Israel-Hamas war since at least October 26, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[59]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iranian parliament has likely approved a controversial veiling bill, although it is unclear if the regime will implement it. </strong>An Iranian newspaper reported on March 9 that Parliament approved legislation that would use facial recognition technology to fine unveiled women. This report is consistent with an Iranian parliamentarian’s March 8 claim that Parliament had approved such legislation.[60] The Guardian Council—a regime body that can overrule parliamentary legislation—has rejected prior iterations of Parliament’s hijab bill, however, making it unclear if the recent veiling bill will reach implementation.[61] Discussions surrounding mandatory veiling legislation coincide with social media reports of increased tensions between unveiled Iranian women and hardline clerics in recent days.[62]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_59.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_59.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4565</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5991 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17557</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://t.me/sarayaps/17556</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081140039356645</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081191214071930</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1767223266072986044 ; https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1767210825620557960</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1767262366536749412 ; https://twitter.com/TimesofIsrael/status/1767283910189400199</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://twitter.com/ItayBlumental/status/1767094588274057333 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1767097193184239918</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://twitter.com/ItayBlumental/status/1767094588274057333</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/israel-hamas-both-said-probing-fate-of-terror-groups-no-3-targeted-in-airstrike/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081188131237993</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081188131237993 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081189595079084</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] www dot idf.il/185084</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] www dot idf.il/184973</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] www dot idf.il/184973</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767081191214071930</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4162</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://t.me/hamasps/19721 ; https://t.me/hamasps/19722 ; https://t.me/hamasps/19723</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://t.me/hamasps/19689 ; https://t.me/hamasps/19688 ; https://t.me/hamasps/19684%C2%A0;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766503151891366394</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://t.me/hamasps/19725</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://t.me/hamasps/19726</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-01-24/h_e98b25b0a4d79bba53de4b5e86cf6a17</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://t.me/hamasps/19661 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/details-40-day-gaza-truce-draft-proposal-being-studied-by-hamas-2024-02-27/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://t.me/hamasps/19728</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://t.me/hamasps/19641 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-28-2024 ; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50712</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://t.me/hamasps/19724</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5977; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5980; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5982; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5981; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5985; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5986; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5987; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/423; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/424; https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/3065</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5985 , https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5982 , https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5980 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5981</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gallant-to-troops-iran-smuggling-arms-into-west-bank-gird-for-ramadan-terror</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-1-2023; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/police-say-they-foiled-smuggling-of-137-guns-in-biggest-ever-arms-bust-on-jordan-border</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://t.me/C_Military1/47066; https://t.me/mmirleb/2554; https://t.me/mmirleb/2556; https://t.me/mmirleb/2558; https://t.me/C_Military1/47084; https://t.me/mmirleb/2564; https://t.me/mmirleb/2566; https://t.me/mmirleb/2568</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://t.me/mmirleb/2556; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-says-stages-multi-drone-strike-israeli-outpost-golan-heights-2024-03-11/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1767157620899561679</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/212733</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-3-2023#:~:text=President%20Ebrahim%20Raisi%20invited%20Emirati,of%20a%20free%20trade%20zone.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://www.imna dot ir/news/659485</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-may-8-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-3-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.tahlilbazaar dot com/news/276313/تجارت-۵-میلیارد-دلاری-تهران-با-دمشق</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://damascusv dot com/archives/59678 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/13/3049169/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-3-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://english dot almasirah dot net dot ye/post/38658/Fresh-US-British-Aggression-on-Hodeidah; https://twitter.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1767202661273596271 ; https://x.com/alsyasiah/status/1767246577226158256?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran; https://www.interfax dot ru/world/949779; https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-iran-china-hold-warship-drills-gulf-oman-2024-03-11/; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/03/11/3053472; https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/4179319; https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202403119187; https://www.iranintl dot com/202403117719; http://www.news dot cn/world/20240311/7d894312b0d3469d93114bdb943fd046/c.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran; http://www.news dot cn/world/20240311/7d894312b0d3469d93114bdb943fd046/c.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://www.leader dot ir/fa/content/27046/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://farsi dot khamenei.ir/news-content?id=55578</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1392/10/29/253783</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/iran-defies-us-sanctions-with-surging-exports-of-liquefied-petroleum-gas-1.2042398</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/iran-defies-us-sanctions-with-surging-exports-of-liquefied-petroleum-gas-1.2042398</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/03/11/3053233</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://en.mfa dot ir/portal/newsview/741105</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-7-2024 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/04/2951633 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/03/2951466 ; https://www.irna dot ir/news/85219411 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/04/2951654</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-7-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-april-14-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-30-2023-6569315598267</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/analysis-opinion/1694275613-iran-behind-latest-escalation-between-armenia-azerbaijan ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2022/10/30/iran-may-hope-to-replicate-turkeys-success-exporting-drones-heres-why-it-cant/?sh=37e6a048db64 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-11-2023#_ednbb3e7cad8d1a53af956e7c612d72606b5b9c6838d526c0faac3525bf8b80cbee17</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/03/11/3053557/iranian-russian-diplomats-discuss-regional-developments</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-19-2023-655aade0c5170 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-16-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-3-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-2-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-30-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60]https://farhikhtegandaily dot com/news/95871 ; https://x.com/MotG96/status/1766056213102330306?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/156257/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1766910319450886240?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1766459061111808354?s=20</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-66266037976988227992024-03-11T20:25:00.001-04:002024-03-11T20:25:18.363-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 11, 2024, 6:15pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30 pm ET on March 11. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Ukrainian military observer offered assessments of Russian force generation and defense industrial base (DIB) capacities that are consistent with ISW’s previous assessments. </strong>Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian military command is aiming to create a “strategic reserve” for offensive operations in spring–summer 2024 but is not planning to equip these newly formed units and formations with the doctrinally required quantities of weapons and equipment due to current Russian DIB production constraints.[1] Mashovets stated that the Russian military command only plans to equip the 27th Motorized Rifle Division — which Russia is reportedly in the process of standing up on the basis of the Central Military District’s existing 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade — with up to 87 percent of its doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment by the second and fourth quarters of 2024 and implied that the Russian military command has a similar goal for other new formations and units. Mashovets assessed that it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to meet this equipment goal by the fourth quarter of 2024 given that many Russian regiments, brigades, and divisions currently operating in Ukraine only have about 30 percent of the doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment. Several Western and Ukrainian military officials and analysts noted that Russia’s reported tank production numbers largely reflect restored and modern tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[2]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Mashovets’ assessment is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the Russian DIB is capable of sustaining Russia’s current tempo of operations, although not likely able to fully support a potential operational or strategic-level offensive operation using a strategic reserve of manpower 2024.[3] Reports that the Russian military is prioritizing creating new underequipped units and formations are consistent with ISW‘s assessment that Russia is prioritizing the quantity of manpower and materiel over the quality of its forces.[4] ISW continues to assess that Russia would have the opportunity to expand its DIB and amass resources if it maintains the theater-wide initiative throughout 2024, thus allowing Russia to set conditions for a future offensive operation using a larger reserve of manpower and equipment.[5]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Mashovets stated that the Russian military command intends to form the bulk of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division from the newly formed 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly staffed by degraded elements of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment), 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment.[6] Mashovets stated that Russia is currently forming its 433rd, 506th, and 589th motorized rifle regiments at the Totskoye training ground in Orenburg Oblast and the “Trekhizbenovsky“ training ground in occupied Luhansk Oblast and plans to have these units ready for combat by late spring or early summer 2024.[7] These newly formed regiments are likely meant to rapidly deploy to Ukraine to offset frontline losses and are unlikely to be staffed with high-quality recruits or operating at doctrinal end strength.[8] Although Russia likely does not have the capacity to staff and equip these new units near their intended end strength in the near term, the Russian military command almost certainly has long-term intentions to fully equip these and similar units. Mashovets noted that the Russian military command has already been forced to reconsider the formation of a number of units due to “discrepanc[ies]“ between Russia’s force-generation ambitions and realities and that Russia’s ability to deploy its strategic reserves in practice are likely limited “to a certain point.”[9] The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing short-term benefits, such as limited territorial gains, over long-term sustainability and large-scale operationally meaningful undertakings in Ukraine amid ongoing Russian reformation and reconstitution efforts. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command’s use of ongoing force structure changes to rush newly created and understrength formations into combat in Ukraine will likely constrain the immediate efficacy of these units on the battlefield but is enough to maintain the current pace of operations.[10] The major variable likely to determine the rate at which such partially replenished Russian forces can advance this summer is the availability of materiel to Ukraine, which in turn depends heavily on the continued provision of US military assistance.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production is likely not sustainable in the medium- and long-term as it will likely suffer from labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles, and an inability to completely compensate for military and dual-use items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions.</strong> The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wall Street Journal </em>(WSJ) reported on March 11 that a senior NATO official stated that Russia can likely sustain its current war effort for two to five more years.[11] WSJ<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>noted that some Russian production figures, such as those for military vehicles, do not differentiate between newly produced items and refurbished ones brought out of storage, such as older, lower quality T-62 and T-54/-55 tanks. ISW has observed that reports of Russia’s reported tank “production” numbers in recent years largely reflect restored and modernized tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[12]<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>Open-source researchers recently analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has reportedly removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities since 2022.[13] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program Senior Fellow Dara Massicot assessed on March 8 that Russia’s “remaining inventory will dwindle in the next couple of years” if Russia continues its current tempo of operations.[14] WSJ<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>reported that the Bank of Finland concluded that Russia may not be able to sustain its increased DIB production as the DIB takes personnel and material resources away from other sectors of the Russian economy.[15] WSJ<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>reported that Kremlin official statements suggest that the Russian DIB is suffering from a personnel shortage of about 20 percent and that some DIB enterprise employees have recently complained about the lack of training and tools. ISW has previously assessed that Russia’s labor shortage, which is partially a result of its war in Ukraine and partially a symptom of Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis, will likely continue to complicate Kremlin efforts to balance increasing Russian economic capacity and force generation while catering to select members of the Russian ultranationalist community by disincentivizing migrant workers from working in Russia.[16] The Bank of Finland also reportedly found that Russia’s increased DIB production has focused on low-tech products, such as fabricated steel, and that Russia is still reliant on foreign suppliers for higher-tech items such as semiconductors.[17] WSJ<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>stated that while Russia has successfully evaded sanctions and imported some products, Russia is struggling to source some necessary specialized items, such as tank optics, from third countries. </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported that Russia currently has about three million rounds of old artillery ammunition in its stockpiles, but that much of it is in poor condition.[18] WSJ<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>reported that RUSI and other Western analysts have assessed that Russia’s current domestic ammunition production is not sufficient for its war in Ukraine, so Russia will likely continue relying on supplies from partners.[19] CNN<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>reported on March 11 that NATO intelligence estimates that Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions of unspecified caliber per month totaling about three million shells per year.[20] A<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>senior European intelligence official reportedly told CNN<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>the US and Europe can collectively produce only about 1.2 million shells of unspecified calibers per year for Ukraine. CNN<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>stated that the US military set a goal to produce 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025 and noted that this is less than half of Russia’s current monthly production, but US Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Doug Bush stated on February 5 that this goal of 100,000 shells per month by 2025 only refers to 155mm artillery shells and does not include shells of other calibers that the US produces and that Ukrainian forces use.[21] NATO intelligence estimates of Russian artillery munition production cited by CNN<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>likely include various calibers of munitions, not just 152mm shells that are the analogue to Western 155mm shells, and is likely not a direct comparison to the West’s goals for the production of 155mm shells.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea have apparently resumed after a pause since mid-February 2024. </strong>North Korea–focused outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NK Pro</em> reported on March 11 that satellite imagery indicates that a ship resembling the Russian <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lady R</em> cargo ship arrived at North Korea’s Rajin Port on March 10 and appears to be loaded with containers that crews will likely fill with arms for delivery back to Russia.[22] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NK Pro</em> stated that objects, likely delivered to the port by train from inside North Korea, appeared at the pier at Rajin Port where ships are usually loaded before departing to Russia. The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lady R</em> ship reportedly delivered cargo from North Korea to Russia twice in October 2023 and once in February 2024. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NK Pro </em>reported on February 29 that satellite imagery indicated that Russian ships involved in the maritime transport of North Korean ammunition and weaponry to Russia had not docked at the Rajin Port since February 12.[23]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Ukrainian military source noted that Russian forces are increasingly using grenades equipped with chemical substances in the Zaporizhia direction, in potential violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to which Russia is a signatory</strong>. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi stated on March 11 that Russian forces used at least 60 grenades equipped with a suffocating and tear-inducing substance on Ukrainian positions in the Tavriisk direction (Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast) between March 4 to March 10 alone, noting that most of these attacks occurred in the Zaporizhia direction.[24] Lykhovyi suggested that Russian forces are most likely equipping grenades with chloropicrin (PS) or a similar substance. PS is a lung-damaging riot control agent (RCA) that shares the characteristics of tear gas — it is not necessarily lethal but can have extremely irritating and harmful impacts when inhaled.[25] The CWC prohibits the use of PS and other RCAs in warfare, and Russia has been a signatory to the CWC since 1997.[26]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has summoned Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov in response to claims that Russia will operate polling stations in pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria during the Russian presidential election.</strong> The Moldovan MFA summoned Vasnetsov to appear on March 12 in response to Moldova’s “disapproval” of claims that Russia will operate polling stations in Transnistria.[27] Regional outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Transnistrian News</em> claimed on March 11 that Russian citizens will be able to vote in the Russian presidential election at six polling stations in Transnistria on March 17 despite previous Moldovan rulings that Russia can only operate one polling station at the Russian embassy in Chisinau.[28] Russian Embassy Press Secretary Anatoly Loshakov appeared to deny <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Transnistrian News</em>’ claim, stating that the embassy is only organizing voting at the polling station at the embassy.[29] These claims may be part of the Kremlin’s efforts to use Transnistria and pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia in information operations to support hybrid operations aimed at sabotaging Moldova’s EU accession process and keeping Moldova within Russia’s sphere of influence.[30]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt – 2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11–15.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Kremlin-affiliated outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Izvestia </em>reported on March 11 that a detachment ships of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, including the <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Varyag </em>Slava-class cruiser, arrived at Iran’s Chabahar Port to participate in Maritime Security Belt-2024 alongside Iranian and Chinese naval detachments.[32] The exercise, which was first held in 2019, is intended to practice safe joint naval maneuvers to ensure safe maritime economic activity.[33] The Russian <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Marshal Shaposhnikov</em> Udaloy-class destroyer; the Chinese <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ürümqi </em>destroyer, <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Linyi </em>frigate, <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Dongpinghu </em>replenishment ship; and 10 unnamed Iranian ships, boats, and supply vessels and three naval helicopters are taking part in the exercise.[34] Representatives of Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, India, and South Africa will observe the exercise.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the West intends to use Armenia as a tool against Russia, a notable escalation in its information operations criticizing Armenian efforts to distance itself from security relations with Russia</strong>. UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey stated on March 10 that the UK recognizes Armenia’s decision to “essentially” freeze its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) “in the face of threats of relation from Russia,” while acknowledging that Armenia is not officially leaving the CSTO.[35] The Russian MFA claimed that Heappey’s statement was “direct confirmation” of the West’s intent to “turn Armenia into a tool against Moscow” and its wider “anti-Russian” efforts in the post-Soviet space and the South Caucasus.[36] The Russian MFA called on Armenian officials to “think seriously.” Senior Russian government officials have acknowledged and criticized Armenia’s lack of participation in the CSTO since Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan’s February 22 announcement that Armenia “essentially” froze its participation in the CSTO.[37] The Kremlin is likely preparing a harsher and more concerted response as Armenia continues to take measures to distance itself from Russia and signal interest in strengthening relations with the West.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on March 11 that allows Russian authorities to further restrict actors it deems “foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the presidential election.</strong> Putin signed a bill that bans Russians from advertising the content of individuals and organizations legally designated as “foreign agents” and from advertising their own content on platforms that “foreign agents” own.[38] ISW previously assessed that this law will impact Russian opposition media’s ability to operate and report reliably in Russia and reported that at least one Russian opposition journalist has already suspended their work in Russia due to the new advertising ban.[39] ISW recently observed reports that large Russian advertising agencies have already included unilateral termination clauses in their advertising contracts in case the Kremlin designates a client as a foreign agent during the term of their contract.[40] The Russian Cabinet of Ministers also announced its<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>support for a draft bill that would allow the Russian government to designate foreign organizations whose founders or participants are allegedly affiliated with foreign governments as “undesirable” and fine or imprison individuals found guilty of participating in their events.[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">France is reportedly prepared to build a coalition of countries that are open to potentially sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.</strong>[42]<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné announced on March 9 during a meeting with Baltic and Ukrainian officials that Ukraine could use foreign troops for operations such as demining or similar efforts and that Western personnel in Ukraine would not necessarily fight.[43] Séjourné emphasized that “it is not for Russia to tell us how we [the West] should help Ukraine in the coming months or years,” noting that Russia should not be able to control how the West responds to Russia by setting arbitrary “red lines.” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski similarly stated on March 8 that the “presence of NATO forces in Ukraine is not unthinkable.”[44] Séjourné reiterated on March 11 that France seeks to “send strong signals” to Russia and speak to the Kremlin in the “language of balance of power.”[45]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Ukrainian military observer offered assessments of Russian force generation and defense industrial base (DIB) capacities that are consistent with ISW’s previous assessments.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production is likely not sustainable in the medium and long-term as it will likely suffer from labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles, and an inability to completely compensate for military and dual-use items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea have apparently resumed after a pause since mid-February 2024.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A Ukrainian military source noted that Russian forces are increasingly using grenades equipped with chemical substances in the Zaporizhia direction, in potential violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to which Russia is a signatory</strong>.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has summoned Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov in response to claims that Russia will operate polling stations in pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria during the Russian presidential election.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt – 2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11–15.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the West intends to use Armenia as a tool against Russia, a notable escalation in its information operations criticizing Armenian efforts to distance itself from security relations with Russia</strong>.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on March 11 that allows Russian authorities to further restrict actors it deems “foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the presidential election.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">France is reportedly prepared to build a coalition of countries that are open to potentially sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin continues efforts to cater to Russian servicemembers and their families with the promise of various social benefits.</strong></li></ul><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTMarch%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></strong></a></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong> </p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna amid continued positional engagements in the area on March 11. Geolocated footage published on March 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced east of Terny (west of Kreminna).[46] A Russian milblogger claimed that recent footage of Ukrainian forces’ attempted attacks in the Terny direction confirms that Ukrainian forces control Terny and refutes claims that Russian forces entered the settlement.[47] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces may launch a simultaneous attack on Terny and Yampolivka at an unspecified point in the future to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River that Ukrainian forces have held since autumn 2022. Ukrainian and Russian forces stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[48] Elements of the Russian 7th and 123rd motorized rifle brigades (both of the 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps) are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Bakhmut area on March 11. Geolocated footage published on March 6 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced in a field north of Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut), though Ukrainian forces did not likely recently advance.[50] A Ukrainian company commander operating in the Bakhmut direction stated that Russian forces captured positions on the outskirts of Ivanivske in early March and have not advanced further since then.[51] ISW observed geolocated footage on March 3 indicating that Russian forces have advanced as far as the center of Ivanivske.[52] ISW has not observed visual evidence that Ukrainian forces have recaptured the center of Ivanivske, but they may have done so. Positional fighting continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and east of Chasiv Yar; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[53] Positional fighting also continued northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne and Rozdolivka.[54] Elements of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Ivanivske; the Russian “Varvara” group of Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz forces and the “Maestro” Separate Reconnaissance Detachment of the “Terek” Cossack Brigade (reportedly of the volunteer Cossack Assault Corps) are reportedly operating in the Bakhmut direction; and elements of the 1436th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]] are reportedly operating south of Bakhmut near Niu York.[55]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west of Avdiivka on March 11, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed on March 10 that Russian forces advanced 280 meters along Myr Street in Orlivka, which is consistent with recent confirmed Russian advances in the settlement.[56] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have captured most of Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[57] A milblogger claimed on March 10 that the pace of Russian assaults in the Avdiivka direction slowed between March 3 to 10 but that Russian forces continue offensive operations west of Avdiivka on the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line despite Ukrainian counterattacks.[58] Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka and Berdychi; west of Bakhmut near Orlivka and Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Nevelske and Pervomaiske.[59] Elements of the Russian 21st and 30th motorized rifle brigades (2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) and 24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) continue to operate on the Berdychi-Stepove area, and elements of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) are reportedly operating in the Avdiivka area.[60]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces fighting on the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line west of Avdiivka are degraded and struggling to make significant advances.[61] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are focusing on the Orlivka-Tonenke area and are making steady tactical advances but that Russian forces overall are struggling. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces here are struggling due to degraded staff work, poor training of command staff, poor organization, and lack of coordination and communication particularly between different units. The milblogger claimed that different Russian units entrenched in basements close to each other do not communicate with each other and struggle with surveillance of their areas. The milblogger advised that Russian forces should not get bogged down on the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line but should focus on the Berdychi area instead of the entire Orlivka-Tonenke line as they are now.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="720" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued fighting in the area on March 11. Geolocated footage published on March 11 shows that Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka (all southwest of Donetsk City).[62] Additional geolocated footage published on March 10 shows that Russian forces marginally advanced southeast of Shevchenko (southwest of Donetsk City and southwest of Vuhledar), and a Russian milblogger claimed on March 11 that Russian forces advanced in the area.[63] Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka on March 11.[64] Elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Heorhiivka; elements of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Pobieda; and elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps, EMD) are reportedly operating near Novomykhailivka.[65]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="771" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka amid positional fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 11. Geolocated footage published on March 7 and 10 shows that Russian forces advanced southeast of Chervone (southwest of Velyka Novosilka and southeast of Hulyaipole).[66] Positional fighting continued south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske on March 11.[67] Elements of the Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) continue to operate in the south Donetsk direction; elements of the Russian 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) are operating near Staromayorske; and elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th CAA, EMD) are operating near Chervone.[68]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="667" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 11, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in these areas. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured several unspecified positions between Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these clams.[69] Positional engagements continued near Zherebyanky (northwest of Robotyne), Pyatykhatky (northwest of Robotyne), Robtoyne, Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne), and northwest of Verbove.[70] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Palantin-K electronic warfare (EW) system and a Leyer EW system in the Zaporizhia direction (likely referring to western Zaporizhia Oblast).[71]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="639" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of March 11. Positional engagements continued in left bank Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky.[72] Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo claimed that only scattered groups of Ukrainian servicemen remain in Krynky.[73]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2011%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 25 Shahed-136/131 drones on the night of March 10-11 and that Ukrainian forces shot down 15 drones.[74] Ukrainian officials stated that Russian drones damaged civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Odesa cities.[75]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 11 that Russian forces have launched 175 Shahed drones at Ukraine since March 1 and that Ukrainian forces have shot down 151 of the drones.[76]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin continues efforts to cater to Russian military personnel and their families with the promise of social benefits. Putin instructed the Russian Cabinet of Ministers on March 11 to create a new section of the Unified Public Services Portal (Gosuslugi) that provides Russian servicemembers fighting in Ukraine and their family members with information about social benefits, assistance, and services that are available to them.[77] The Cabinet of Ministers is also reportedly considering a proposal that will exempt the children of deceased servicemembers from paying for utilities and allows a one time payment of 20,000 rubles (about $220) to dependents of deceased soldiers who received the “Hero of Russia“ award.[78] Putin additionally signed a decree on March 11 that extends the five-million-ruble ($55,000) payment made in the event of a soldier’s death in Ukraine to families of civilian Ministry of Defense (MoD) personnel and employees of law enforcement bodies.[79] The decree will provide the five-million-ruble payment to the families of civilian employees of the Russian MoD, any federal government agency, internal affairs agencies, the Federal Penitentiary Service, the Federal Bailiff Service, federal communications authorities, or Federal Customs Service in the event of the employee's death in the combat zone in Ukraine. The Kremlin has previously used the promise of social benefits to incentivize participation in the war and soothe domestic discontent using financial means.[80]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) </strong> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">European Union (EU) High Commissioner Josep Borrell stated on March 11 that the EU may use the profits from frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine or to help strengthen Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB), should the EU agree to use the profits from the frozen funds.[81] The EU previously adopted a decision that would allow the EU to use the profits of frozen Russian funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine.[82]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to aid and supply Ukraine. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps stated on March 7 that the United Kingdom (UK) will allocate 125 million pounds (about $160 million) to purchase 10,000 drones for Ukraine in 2024.[83] Officials from Luxembourg, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, and France announced recently that they will join the Czech initiative to fund the provision of artillery ammunition from outside the EU to Ukraine.[84] The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on March 7 that Norway will provide $150 million to the Czech artillery ammunition initiative.[85] French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 8 that France is negotiating with Qatar and Saudi Arabia on the return of French weapons exported to Saudi Arabia and Qatar and that France will no longer supply artillery shells and systems to these countries as part of French efforts to increase supplies to Ukraine.[86] Macron stated that Germany and Italy are also negotiating the return of weapons from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) are reportedly considering a “ring exchange” of German Taurus missiles for British Storm Shadow missiles as part of European efforts to arm Ukraine. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated on March 9 that the UK is ready to acquire German Taurus missiles to replace at least some of its stock of British Storm Shadow missiles, which the UK would then send to Ukraine.[87] German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated on March 11 that the ring exchange proposal would be an “option” and noted that Germany has previously conducted similar weapons exchanges.[88]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The lack of US funding for American-Canadian military aid provision agreements are reportedly delaying weapons supplies to Ukraine. Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair stated on March 10 that the lack of US funding to finalize contracts has delayed the American and Canadian delivery of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) that Canada and the US promised to Ukraine in January 2023.[89]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">New York Times </em>reported on March 11 that Ukraine may receive six F-16 fighter jets in summer 2024 and that 12 Ukrainian pilots will likely be ready to fly F-16s in combat by then.[90]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s European allies continue efforts to shift aspects of DIB production to Ukrainian territory to support Ukraine’s DIB domestically. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on March 8 that three unnamed French companies will establish factories for the joint production of drone, vehicle parts, and potentially ammunition in Ukraine.[91] Lecornu noted that France and Ukraine aim to launch the first of these production facilities in Summer 2024.[92] Czech industrial-technology holding group Czechoslovak Group (CSG) is negotiating with various Ukrainian state-owned companies to transfer some part of joint munition and heavy equipment manufacturing to Ukraine by 2027.[93] CSG owner Michal Strnad stated that the Czech-Ukrainian model should follow the analogue of German arms concern Rheinmetall’s joint venture with Ukrainian state-owned DIB conglomerate Ukroboronprom, which operates exclusively within Ukraine and provides for the maintenance, assembly, and production of military vehicles.[94]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary. </strong> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on March 11 that the US plans to conduct cyberattacks against the Russian remote electronic voting system and use non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to attempt to reduce voter turnout in the Russian presidential election.[95] Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to blame a potential low voter turnout on alleged Western election tampering and for escalation with the West.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Belarusian First Deputy Defense Minister Major General Viktor Gulevich stated on March 11 that the Belarusian military is conducting combat readiness exercise, in part as a response to the NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises.[96] ISW continues to assess that Russia and Belarus are attempting to misrepresent these exercises as a threat against Russia and Belarus despite the exercises’ defensive nature in response to real Russian aggression against Ukraine and overt Russian threats against NATO states.[97] Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Andriy Kovalenko warned that unspecified actors may spread false information about the start of a new Russian offensive operation in the direction of Kyiv in tandem with the Belarusian military exercises.[98] Kovalenko reported that the Russian military does not have “reserves or a sufficient presence [in Belarus]” to conduct an invasion from Belarus.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_58.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_58.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1695 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1697 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/169</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021424 https://isw.pub/UkrWar030724</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1696</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1696</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1698</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-pumping-out-weaponsbut-can-it-keep-it-up-ba30bb04</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-pumping-out-weaponsbut-can-it-keep-it-up-ba30bb04</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-pumping-out-weaponsbut-can-it-keep-it-up-ba30bb04</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-pumping-out-weaponsbut-can-it-keep-it-up-ba30bb04 ; https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-pumping-out-weaponsbut-can-it-keep-it-up-ba30bb04 ; https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020624 ; https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.nknews dot org/pro/russian-cargo-ship-returns-to-north-korean-port-in-sign-of-arms-trade-restart/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/11/u-sylah-oborony-rozpovily-pro-zbroyu-ostannoyi-nadiyi-u-rosiyan-na-zaporizkomu-napryamku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/ershdb/emergencyresponsecard_29750034.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cwcsig; https://www.opcw.org/our-work/what-chemical-weapon#:~:text=A%20riot%20control%20agent%20is,is%20prohibited%20by%20the%20CWC.; https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007-09/features/convention-peril-riot-control-agents-chemical-weapons-ban</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://t.me/maeiexplica/1225</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://t.me/novostipmrcom/53821 ; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/20203537 ; https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-russia-election-putin-transdniester-pushback/32813386.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://tass dot ru/politika/20200797</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022824</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran; https://www.interfax dot ru/world/949779; https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-iran-china-hold-warship-drills-gulf-oman-2024-03-11/; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/03/11/3053472; https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/4179319; https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202403119187; https://www.iranintl dot com/202403117719; http://www.news dot cn/world/20240311/7d894312b0d3469d93114bdb943fd046/c.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://iz dot ru/1663152/2024-03-11/otriad-korablei-vmf-rf-pribyl-na-ucheniia-v-iran; http://www.news dot cn/world/20240311/7d894312b0d3469d93114bdb943fd046/c.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://news dot am/eng/news/811569.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://t.me/tass_agency/235889 ; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/20202511</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://tass dot ru/politika/20203765</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://www.politico.eu/article/france-finds-baltic-allies-in-its-spat-with-germany-over-ukraine-aid-sikorski-nato-macron-troops-war/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://www.politico.eu/article/france-finds-baltic-allies-in-its-spat-with-germany-over-ukraine-aid-sikorski-nato-macron-troops-war/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://twitter.com/PolandMFA/status/1766118567529869614?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/tass_agency/235832 ; https://unn dot ua/en/news/french-foreign-minister-calls-for-talking-to-russia-in-the-language-of-balance-of-power </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://x.com/slovyanskasil/status/1766924284599886305?s=20; https://x.com/blinzka/status/1766946092011118803?s=20; https://x.com/blinzka/status/1766942042712662125?s=20; https://x.com/slovyanskasil/status/1766908281535054283?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/rybar/58070</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://t.me/mod_russia/36498 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18660 ; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17521 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ShiD22M7YiPLhJrU5z6NQrGc4fHezcsdHrzd1mz8AbL7CeTDVnBDKNCNL38cobXMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8770 (7th Brigade) ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116013 (123rd Brigade)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1766893489139101789; https://t.me/umftteam/237; https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1766893492528124182</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://suspilne dot media/703110-rosijski-vijskovi-dva-tizni-tomu-zafiksuvalis-na-okolicah-ivanivskogo-ale-podalsogo-uspihu-ne-maut-fedorenko/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%204%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ShiD22M7YiPLhJrU5z6NQrGc4fHezcsdHrzd1mz8AbL7CeTDVnBDKNCNL38cobXMl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8151; https://t.me/wargonzo/18659; https://t.me/dva_majors/36294;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63470 (Ivanivske); https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8764 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18668 (Bakhmut direction); https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2023; https://t.me/nm_dnr/11952 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63486 (Niu York)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63452</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54635</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://t.me/wargonzo/18659</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ShiD22M7YiPLhJrU5z6NQrGc4fHezcsdHrzd1mz8AbL7CeTDVnBDKNCNL38cobXMl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36498; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63452; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63452; https://t.me/philologist_zov/877</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63449 ; https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8756 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63450 (Berdychi-Stepove); https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63454 (Avdiivka area)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://t.me/philologist_zov/877; https://t.me/philologist_zov/878</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://t.me/katya_valya_dnr/4473; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4732; https://t.me/operativnoZSU/139395; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4724; https://t.me/SolovievLive/245179; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4726; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767105118019702968; https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767103250505830475; https://t.me/ua_dshv/2200; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4725</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://t.me/operativnoZSU/139395; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4724; https://t.me/SolovievLive/245179; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4726; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767105118019702968; https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767103250505830475; https://t.me/ua_dshv/2200; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4725; https://t.me/z_arhiv/26241</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36498</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63494 (Heorhiivka); https://t.me/voin_dv/7465 (Novomykhailivka); https://t.me/z_arhiv/26244 (Pobieda)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://x.com/moklasen/status/1766924280170745956?s=20; https://t.me/operativnoZSU/139379; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12105l https://x.com/moklasen/status/1767259980976009633?s=20; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=750693493824614</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://t.me/voin_dv/7464; https://t.me/basurin_e/9645 (South Donetsk); https://t.me/voin_dv/7463 (Staromayorske); https://t.me/operativnoZSU/139379; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12105 (Chervone)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8158 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18660</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ShiD22M7YiPLhJrU5z6NQrGc4fHezcsdHrzd1mz8AbL7CeTDVnBDKNCNL38cobXMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36499 ; https://t.me/rybar/58048 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8158 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18659 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36294 ; https://t.me/vrogov/14666 ; https://ria dot ru/20240308/verbovoe-1931888325.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=mobile&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fdzen.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3D ; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/20187803</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/11/ukrayinski-zahysnyky-znyshhyly-ridkisnyj-rosijskyj-kompleks-reb-palantyn/; https://t.me/ukr_sof/978; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767224507322757175</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02YBwy3NkDPFLm3iZU7tFGEEELsU96RxBkegcU3qA6uREfEjpYCLef5y4pGumfoHBGl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ShiD22M7YiPLhJrU5z6NQrGc4fHezcsdHrzd1mz8AbL7CeTDVnBDKNCNL38cobXMl ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7050 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36294 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8154 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2464 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tdyHma4pueCfcZTe25PFpxf6sGdVuLhWwvqYYFiJt7dMHF81RSX3aYFK1eSKG1EBl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[75] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7043 ; https://t.me/ihor_terekhov/1102 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/11/nichna-ataka-shahediv-v-ova-rozpovily-pro-naslidky-udariv-bpla-po-odesi/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[76] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/11/za-berezen-syly-ppo-zbyly-151-zi-175-shahediv/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[77] https://ria dot ru/20240311/svo-1932255665.html ; http://www.kremlin dot ru/acts/assignments/orders/73628 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[78] https://t.me/tass_agency/235883; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/20202635</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[79] http://publication.pravo dot gov.ru/document/0001202403110014; https://iz dot</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">ru/1663248/2024-03-11/putin-rasshiril-vyplaty-v-sluchae-gibeli-na-svo-na-semi-grazhdanskikh-sotrudnikov-mo</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[80] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[81] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/11/u-yes-nazvaly-umovu-za-yakoyi-aktyvy-rf-vykorystayut-dlya-zakupivli-zbroyi-dlya-ukrayiny/ ; https://www.eeas.europa dot eu/eeas/time-strengthen-european-defence-industry_en</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[82] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[83] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/07/brytaniya-profinansuye-ponad-10-tysyach-droniv-dlya-ukrayiny/ ; https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-supply-more-than-10000-drones-to-ukraine</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[84] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/08/lyuksemburg-pryyednavsya-do-inicziatyvy-chehiyi-shhodo-zakupivli-800-tysyach-snaryadiv-dlya-ukrayiny/; https://mil.in dot ua/uk/news/lyuksemburg-pidtrymav-plan-chehiyi-shhodo-zakupivli-snaryadiv-dlya-ukrayiny-za-mezhamy-yes/ ; https://twitter.com/AndrisSpruds/status/1765350716468601042 ; https://lrv dot lt/lt/naujienos/su-cekijos-premjeru-saugumo-padeti-aptarusi-ministre-pirmininke-lietuva-prisides-prie-cekijos-iniciatyvos-del-amunicijos-pirkimo-ukrainai/ ; https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-world/3835984-francia-dolucitsa-do-iniciativi-cehii-iz-zakupivli-boepripasiv-dla-ukraini.html ; https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-world/3835984-francia-dolucitsa-do-iniciativi-cehii-iz-zakupivli-boepripasiv-dla-ukraini.html ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[85] https://twitter.com/NorwayMFA/status/1765732147220951125</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[86] https://mil dot in.ua/en/news/france-is-negotiating-the-transfer-of-weapons-from-arab-countries-to-ukraine/#:~:text=In%20addition%2C%20according%20to%20Macron,be%20a%20priority%20for%20France. ; https://twitter.com/Elysee/status/1735664173172896194?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[87] https://www.zei dot de/politik/ausland/2024-03/ukraine-taurus-grossbritannien-cameron-unterstuetzung-deutschland?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter ; https://suspilne dot media/701954-britania-gotova-dopomogti-nimeccini-z-postacannam-taurus-ukraini-kemeron/ ; https://www.sueddeutsche dot de/projekte/artikel/politik/david-cameron-interview-nato-ukraine-taurus-scholz-usa-trump-israel-e095522/?reduced=true</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[88] https://www.spiegel dot de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-annalena-baerbock-bezeichnet-taurus-ringtausch-als-moegliche-option-a-82f23dd7-b109-4d19-9d70-1ccc8ca5e1ea</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[89] https://edmontonjournal dot com/news/national/canadas-406-million-missile-system-for-ukraine-hung-up-in-u-s-red-tape-blair; https://mil.in dot ua/uk/news/kanadskyj-nasams-dlya-ukrayiny-zatrymuyetsya-cherez-problemy-finansuvannya-z-boku-ssha/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[90] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world/europe/ukraine-f16-pilots.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[91] https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1766007207647142018; https://mil.in dot ua/uk/news/frantsiya-planuye-vyroblyaty-zbroyu-na-terytoriyi-ukrayiny/#google_vignette; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-defence-companies-build-military-equipment-ukrainian-soil-minister-2024-03-08/; https://www.ladepeche.fr/2024/03/09/guerre-en-ukraine-drones-munitions-que-sait-on-des-trois-entreprises-francaises-qui-vont-collaborer-avec-kiev-sur-le-sol-ukrainien-11813080.php#:~:text=Le%20ministre%20des%20Arm%C3%A9es%2C%20S%C3%A9bastien,Trois%20industriels%20seraient%20concern%C3%A9s.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[92] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-defence-companies-build-military-equipment-ukrainian-soil-minister-2024-03-08/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[93] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3836558-ceska-oboronna-kompania-planue-nalagoditi-virobnictvo-boepripasiv-v-ukraini.html ; https://www.ceskenoviny dot cz/zpravy/holding-csg-jedna-o-vyrobe-munice-na-ukrajine-zacit-by-mela-do-tri-let/2489220</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[94] https://www.ceskenoviny dot cz/zpravy/holding-csg-jedna-o-vyrobe-munice-na-ukrajine-zacit-by-mela-do-tri-let/2489220</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[95] https://t.me/tass_agency/235844 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235843</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[96] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[97] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[98] https://suspilne dot media/703354-na-tli-vijskovih-navcan-u-bilorusi-mozut-zavitisa-fejki-pro-nastup-na-kiiv-cpd/</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-604680010156496912024-03-10T21:18:00.004-04:002024-03-10T21:18:17.900-04:00Iran Update, March 10, 2024<p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"><strong>Andie Parry, Peter Mills, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong style="text-align: left;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div> <p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the
region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true"><em>interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em>.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Note:
CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.
The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of
Resistance. </em><em>We do not report in detail on war crimes because
these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We
utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe
them in these reports.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap"><em>here</em></a><em>
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em><em>Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html" href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html"><em>here</em></a><em> to subscribe to the Iran Update.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 9 and 10, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 11, 2024</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces operating in southern Gaza City.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Gaza Strip: </strong>Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>US Operations: </strong>The
US Army sent a vessel to the Mediterranean Sea with the first load of
equipment to establish a humanitarian port off the Gaza Strip.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>West Bank: </strong>Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank.</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch10%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Gaza Strip</strong></div></strong><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Erode
the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch
and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces operating in southern Gaza City on March 10. </strong>Palestinian
militias reported that their fighters fired mortars and small arms
targeting Israeli forces in the Tal al Hawa and Zaytoun neighborhoods,
south of Gaza City.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement targeted Israeli forces southeast of Gaza City with short-range rockets.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span>
The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) has continued to operate in
“central” Gaza, likely referring to the areas south of Gaza City in
which Palestinian militias continue to claim attacks.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span>
Israeli forces are also operating south of Gaza City to demolish
structures along a new road that splits the Gaza Strip between the north
and south.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis on March 10. </strong>The
IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) raided Hamas infrastructure used
during the October 7 attack and seized mortars, an explosively formed
penetrator (EFP), and small arms in eastern Hamad.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> The Givati Brigade killed and detained Palestinian fighters in the area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
The IDF 89th Commando Brigade continued fighting in Hamad in
close-range clashes and detained two Hamas fighters who surrendered to
the IDF.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span>
The IDF Egoz unit directed an airstrike on a Palestinian fighter
responsible for the death of an Israeli soldier in the southern Gaza
Strip on March 8.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> The IDF Bislamach Brigade continued to target Palestinian fighters in Qarara.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Palestinian militias continued trying to defend against the IDF around Khan Younis on March 10.</strong> Hamas fighters detonated a building in Bani Suheila that Israeli forces had rigged to explode.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span>
Hamas claimed the house explosion killed and wounded Israeli forces,
but the IDF did not acknowledge casualties from the attack at the time
of this writing. This attack bears similarities to a Hamas attack that
killed 21 Israeli soldiers as the soldiers rigged a building to detonate
in the Central Gaza Strip in January 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> Hamas fighters also targeted Israeli dismounted infantry operating in tunnels in Bani Suheila.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span>
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military
wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, reported that its
fighters fired mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting
Israeli forces in Hamad and generally west of Khan Younis City.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli forces are targeting Hamas nodes involved in attacks outside of the Gaza Strip.</strong>
Israeli journalists reported that the IDF conducted a strike in eastern
Rafah on March 10 targeting a Hamas official who was responsible for
directing attacks in the West Bank.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span>
Israeli forces, separately, arrested a cell of Arab Israelis from
Sakhnin that was planning an attack on Israelis in coordination with
Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> Hamas instructed the Sakhnin cell to construct improvised explosive devices.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> Shin Bet said that that Hamas is still attempting to stoke tensions outside of the Gaza Strip during Ramadan.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>US
CENTCOM announced on March 9 that a US Army logistics support vessel
departed from Virginia to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with the first
load of equipment to establish a temporary pier to deliver humanitarian
supplies to the Gaza Strip.[18]</strong> US President Biden announced the temporary pier initiative on March 7 during his State of the Union address.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the US plan to provide
aid to the Gaza Strip via a temporary port will “advance the collapse of
Hamas’s rule.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> Gallant also acknowledged that Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel would be involved in the maritime corridor.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span></div></strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Palestinian militias did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 10.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>West Bank</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Israeli
forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in
the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 9.[22]</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Lebanese
Hezbollah has conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into
northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 9.[23] </strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Iran and Axis of Resistance</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Demonstrate
the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to
escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>There is no significant activity to report. </strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_82.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_82.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_82.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_82.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr align="left" size="1" style="text-align: justify;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1747 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5972 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17554</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/AymanGouda/6085</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4301</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/darebmojahden/4562</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735943451447493</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/08/middleeast/israel-building-road-splitting-gaza-cmd-intl/index.html</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> www.idf dot il/184814</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> www dot idf.il/184814</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735961281474750</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735931204047326</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735965651939692</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1745</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-23-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1749794794778337606</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1745</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> https://t.me/AymanGouda/6086 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5973</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5974</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5971</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1766753183194353851</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/fdov21/status/1766800667107066365?s=20</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/AJArabic/status/1766730882721665383?s=20</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766766646637560165</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766792602320273741</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766766646637560165</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1766753183194353851</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766623783857836091</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/08/biden-gaza-state-of-the-union/</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1766856735958950144</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span>
https://www.timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/gallant-praises-us-plan-to-provide-aid-to-gaza-via-sea-says-it-will-advance-the-collapse-of-hamass-rule/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/380059</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/380131</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/QudsN/380144</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2518</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2520</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2527</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2529</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2531</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2533</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2535</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2537</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2539</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2541</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/C_Military1/47056</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2545</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2547</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-64082779817429428302024-03-10T21:17:00.002-04:002024-03-10T21:17:20.970-04:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong>Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, and George Barros</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong style="text-align: left;">March 10, 2024, 7:00pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div> <p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a
computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this
data-heavy tool.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain
map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will
update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
The data cut-off for this product was 1:30 pm ET on March 10. ISW will
cover subsequent reports in the March 11 Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>A Ukrainian military official confirmed that Russian forces are conducting strikes in Ukraine with improved glide bombs. </strong>Ukrainian
Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi reported
on March 10 that Russian forces struck Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, with
three universal interspecific glide munition (UMPB) D-30SN guided glide
bombs that Ukrainian forces initially originally assessed were S-300
missiles.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
Lykhovyi stated that improved UMPB D-30SN guided glide bombs
essentially convert Soviet-era FAB unguided gravity bombs to guided
glide bombs. Russian forces had previously used unguided glide bombs as
recently as January 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span>
ISW recently observed Russian milbloggers claim that Russian forces
began conducting strikes with FAB UMPB guided glide bombs, as opposed to
using unguided glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules
(UMPC), in unspecified areas in Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span>
A Russian milblogger claimed that UMPB guided glide bombs have a
guidance system that includes a noise-resistant GLONASS/GPS “Comet”
signal receiver and folding wings similar to a Kh-101 cruise missile.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces can launch UMPB guided
glide bombs from aircraft and ground-based multiple rocket launch
systems (MLRS) such as Tornado-S and Smerch MLRS.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span>
A Russian outlet claimed that Russian aviation is currently launching
UMPBs without jet engines, but that Russia anticipates employing UMPBs
with jet engines in the future.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
Russian milbloggers claimed that UMPB guided glide bombs with a jet
engine and fuel tank, currently absent from aerial glide bombs with
UMPC, will allow Russian aviation to drop guided glide bombs from a
lower altitude “similar to air-to-surface cruise missiles” and increase
the maximum strike range to 80-90 kilometers.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span>
Russian milbloggers claimed that the increased range of UMPB guided
glide bombs will allow Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to increase the
depth of strikes on Ukrainian positions without risk from Ukrainian air
forces detecting or destroying Russian fixed-wing aircraft.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span>
Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian defense industrial base
(DIB) is attempting to mass-produce UMPB guided glide bombs.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span>
Russian forces will likely attempt to serialize production of UMPB
guided glide bombs and increase their use across the frontline.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
sources reported that Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander
Moiseev has replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as Commander-in-Chief of
the Russian Navy. </strong>St. Petersburg news outlet <em>Fontanka </em>reported
on March 10 that Moiseev was appointed as Commander-in-Chief of the
Russian Navy, and former Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Commander retired Admiral
Vladimir Komoyedov later stated that Moiseev is the new
Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy in an interview with Ural
Regional State newswire <em>URA.ru</em>.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span>
Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that Moiseev was appointed to
command the Russian Navy and that recent command changes in the Russian
Navy are occurring amid a “complete paralysis” of fleet leadership about
new threats, likely referring to recent Ukrainian strikes against BSF
assets in and near occupied Crimea.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span>
Russian sources recently claimed that the Russian military officially
removed BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov and replaced him with BSF
Chief of Staff Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span>
ISW cannot confirm either Pinchuk’s or Moiseev’s reported appointments.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is in the process of depriving<strong> </strong>the
Northern Fleet of its status as an “interservice strategic territorial
organization” (a joint headquarters in Western military parlance) to
restore the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (MMD and LMD), and
Moiseev may have been appointed as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian
Navy to retain a high-ranking command role.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
occupation authorities opened early voting in occupied Ukraine for
Russia’s presidential election on March 10 that will last until March
14. </strong>Kremlin newswire <em>TASS </em>reported on March 10 that
early voting started in occupied Donetsk Oblast, but noted that early
voting in areas close to the frontline has been ongoing since February
25.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <em>TASS </em>stated
that stationary polling stations will open in occupied Ukraine on March
15-17. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration Head Artem
Lysohor stated that 2,600 Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) election
commission officials have been conducting door-to-door campaigning for
the past 20 days.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> Ukrainian officials stated that Russian occupation officials intend to claim a 94 percent voter turnout in occupied Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span>
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin and Russian occupation
officials intend to falsify votes in support of Russian President
Vladimir Putin and fabricate a large voter turnout in an attempt to
legitimize Russia’s occupation of Ukraine to the international
community.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Chechen
officials organized a march in Grozny, Chechnya, on March 10 in support
of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s candidacy in the upcoming March
presidential election</strong>. Russian state media outlet <em>TASS </em>reported
that more than 150,000 Chechens attended the march in Grozny and that
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s eldest child, Chechen
Presidential Administration First Deputy Head Khadizhat Kadyrova,
organized the march.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> Russian opposition outlet <em>SOTA</em>
amplified a claim on March 9 that the Chechen State University and
Grozny State Petroleum Technical University instructed its employees and
students to attend the election march on March 10.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
Kadyrov praised the rally on March 10, emphasizing the importance of
the election for the Russian state and praising Putin by name.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> Kadyrov claimed that many prominent Chechen politicians and voices attended the march but did not mention Kadyrova by name.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span>
Chechen National Policy Minister Akhmed Dudayev stated that the march
“reflects that we [Chechnya] are one united team of our first President,
Hero of Russia Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span>
This election march likely supports Kadyrov’s ongoing effort to balance
appealing to his Chechen constituency while courting Putin’s favor.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Over
1,000 civilian ships have transited Ukraine’s “grain corridor” in the
Black Sea despite persistent Russian efforts to undermine international
confidence in the corridor. </strong>US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget
Brink stated on March 9 that 1,005 civilian ships have traveled from
Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea through the “grain corridor” and have
delivered roughly 30 million tons of cargo, including grain, to world
markets.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span>
A civilian ship used the Ukrainian corridor to leave a Ukrainian port
for the first time in August 2023 and to reach a Ukrainian port for the
first time in September 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span>
Russian forces began heavily targeting Ukrainian grain and port
infrastructure in summer 2023 in an effort to exact concessions on the
renewal of the defunct Black Sea grain deal and have continued those
strikes in part to discourage civilian maritime traffic through the
corridor.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) awarded a state honor to a prominent
Russian ultranationalist — who is an active supporter of imprisoned
former officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin — likely as part
of ongoing Kremlin campaign to coopt the critical milblogger community.</strong>
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed a decree awarding Russian
military volunteer and milblogger Vladimir Grubnik with the “For
Military Cooperation” medal on January 24, 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span>
Grubnik routinely publishes and amplifies posts in support of Girkin
(also known under the alias Strelkov) - who is a prominent critic of the
Russian MoD, the Russian military command, and the Kremlin.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span>
Grubnik is also a member of the Russian Strelkov Movement, which
advocates for Girkin‘s release from prison, and the Russian Angry
Patriots Club, which Girkin founded and briefly headed in 2023.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span>
Grubnik had also previously amplified posts that criticized the Russian
MoD and the military command, some of which directly accused Shoigu of
military failures in Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span>
Grubnik notably defended Shoigu from accusations posed by deceased
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin during his mutiny in June 2023,
however.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span>
ISW had previously observed that the Kremlin began to coopt Russian
milbloggers critical of the Russian war effort’s poor performance by
offering them state awards or government positions starting November
2022 in an effort to regain control over the Russian information space.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span>
Grubnik’s award may indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to secure
control over the group of ultranationalists who support Girkin’s
extremist views, are actively providing military and humanitarian help
to Russian forces on the frontline, and have participated in the Russian
invasion of Donbas and Crimea in 2014. Grubnik’s award, however, is
different than the Order of Merit of the Fatherland Second Class medals
that the Kremlin previously awarded to two other milbloggers explicitly
for their milblogger activities, but the reason for Grubnik’s award is
likely related to his volunteer efforts on the frontline.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>A Ukrainian military official confirmed that Russian forces are conducting strikes in Ukraine with improved guided glide bombs.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
sources reported that the Russian military command has replaced Admiral
Nikolai Yevmenov with Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander
Moiseev as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
occupation authorities opened early voting in occupied Ukraine for
Russia’s presidential election on March 10 that will last until March
14.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Chechen officials organized a march in
Grozny, Chechnya, on March 10 in support of Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s candidacy in the upcoming March presidential election</strong>.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Over
1,000 civilian ships have transited Ukraine’s “grain corridor” in the
Black Sea despite persistent Russian efforts to undermine international
confidence in the corridor.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) awarded a state honor to a prominent Russian
ultranationalist — who is an active supporter of imprisoned former
officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin — likely as part of an
ongoing Kremlin campaign to coopt the critical milblogger community.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russian
forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka amid
continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on March 10.</strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Prominent
Russian ultranationalists praised Russian volunteers and mobilized
personnel on March 10, likely to assuage continued concerns among these
personnel in spite of their improper and inequal treatment in the
Russian military.</strong></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch10%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch10%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><em>We
do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities
are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the
military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue
to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on
the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on
combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations
of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes
against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian
Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast
and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern
Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li><div style="text-align: justify;">Significant Activity in Belarus</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></li></ul><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push
westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk and near Kreminna on March
10, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional
engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, west of
Kreminna near Yampolivka and Terny, and south of Kreminna near
Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Positional
engagements continued northeast of Bakhmut in the Siversk direction on
March 10, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A
Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 200 meters in
depth towards Vyimka (southeast of Siversk), but ISW has not observed
visual confirmation of this claim.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> Russian forces reportedly attacked southwest of Siversk near Rozdolivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> Elements of the Russian “GORB” detachment (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) are operating near Spirne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces recently marginally advanced west of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage
published on March 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced
in eastern Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span>
Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces control 80 percent
of Ivanivske and made marginal advances near Druzhba (southwest of
Bakhmut) and within Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut), but ISW had not
observed confirmation for these claims.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span>
Positional battles continued near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near
Ivanivske and east of Chasiv Yar; and southwest of Bakhmut near
Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba, and Shumy.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span>
A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 11th Separate
Guards Air Assault (VDV) Brigade and 68th Tank Regiment and 102nd
Motorized Rifle Regiment (both part of 150th Motorized Rifle Division,
8th Guards Combined Arms Army [CAA] Southern Military District [SMD])
are fighting in Ivanivske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span>
Elements of the Russian “Sever-V” Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade
(Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly supporting Russian assaults on
Bohdanivka; elements of the Russian 98th Guards VDV Division are
reportedly operating in the Bakhmut direction; and elements of the 132nd
Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC) are
operating near Toretsk (southwest of Bakhmut).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces recently marginally advanced northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi
and west of Avdiivka in Orlivka. Geolocated footage published on March 9
and March 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of
Berdychi and in western Orlivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span>
Positional battles continued near Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near
Orlivka and Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiikka near Pervomaiske,
Sieverne, and Nevelske.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span>
Elements of the Russian 24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (General Staff’s
Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating near
Berdychi.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> Elements of the 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) are reportedly operating in the Avdiivka direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="720" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Russian
and Ukrainian forces engaged in positional battles west of Donetsk City
near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near
Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span>
A Russian milblogger claimed that Su-34 fighter jet pilots of the
Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Forces Army (Russian Aerospace Forces
[VKS] of the Eastern Military District [EMD]) continue to launch air
strikes in the southern Donetsk direction using FAB-500 unguided glide
bombs.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span>
Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD)
reportedly continue operating near Krasnohorivka, and elements of the
Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, EMD) are reportedly
operating near Novomykhailivka.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="771" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces recently advanced southwest of Vuhledar in western Donetsk
Oblast. Geolocated footage published on March 10 indicates that Russian
forces recently advanced northwest of Shevchenko (southwest of
Vuhledar).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> Elements of the Russian 29th CAA (EMD) are reportedly operating in the Vuhledar direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
battles occurred southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Novodarivka and
Levadne in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 10.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="667" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></div></strong><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Positional
fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 10, but there
were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Positional
fighting continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing for tactical counterattacks near Robotyne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span>
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated
on March 9 that Russian forces are increasingly relying on off-road
“buggies” and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) to transport Russian infantry
near Robotyne because Ukrainian forces are destroying standard Russian
military vehicles.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span>
Russian forces may be experimenting with using such light unarmored
vehicles due to their availability over Russian military vehicles that
Ukrainian forces can readily destroy, and/or because such light vehicles
are smaller than and have greater speed and mobility over standard
military vehicles, making them more difficult for Ukrainian forces to
target. Elements of the Russian 7th Airborne (VDV) Division and the 1st
Battalion of the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle
Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District
[SMD]) reportedly continue operating in the Zaporizhia direction, and
elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle
Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="639" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Ukrainian
and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in
east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky as of March 10.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span>
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces did
not conduct combat operations for the second consecutive day on March
10 and instead focused on conducting aerial reconnaissance, artillery
fire, and drone operations.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2010%2C2024.png" width="500" /></a></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian
forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against
Ukraine overnight on March 9-10. Ukrainian officials reported that
Russian forces launched four S-300 missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk
oblasts and 39 Shahed-136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea
and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span>
Ukrainian forces destroyed 35 Shaheds over Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv,
Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Odesa, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Kyiv,
and Zhytomyr oblasts. Ukrainian state energy operator Ukrenerho
reported that the Russian forces struck two electrical substations in
southern and central Ukraine but did not disrupt energy supplies.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span> Odesa Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Kiper reported that a drone struck an industrial facility in Odesa Oblast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Prominent
Russian ultranationalists praised Russian volunteers and mobilized
personnel on March 10, likely to assuage continued concerns among these
personnel in spite of their improper and inequal treatment in the
Russian military. Deputy Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR)
Main Directorate of Rosgvardia, Commander of its special rapid response
and riot police (OMON and SOBR), and prominent Russian milblogger
Alexander Khodakovsky praised Russian volunteers as “sacred” for
suffering higher casualty rates in Ukraine and commended mobilized
personnel for fighting in Ukraine despite not choosing to do so
voluntarily.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span>
Another Russian ultranationalist milblogger characterized Russian
military volunteers as Russia’s “backbone” and asserted that Russian
volunteers in Ukraine are far more valuable than Soviet volunteers
during the war in Afghanistan or Russian volunteers during the first and
second Chechen wars.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Kursk
Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit claimed on March 10 that 3,500
volunteers are serving in the Kursk Oblast People’s Militia.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span>
Starovoit claimed that Kursk Oblast People’s Militia volunteers patrol
public areas, bridges, and industrial facilities and assist unspecified
Russian security forces.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span>
Starovoit announced the creation of the Kursk Oblast People’s Militia
in late 2022 under the premise that potential Ukrainian ground assaults
could threaten Russia’s oblasts on the border with Ukraine.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span>
Elements of a similar People’s Militia in Belgorod Oblast have
previously responded to pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer force raids in
Belgorod Oblast, but the Kursk Oblast People’s Militia appears to
conduct simple auxiliary patrol functions.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">A
Russian milblogger observed that Russian forces continue to face some
issues with newly deployed personnel and drone capabilities in the
Avdiivka direction.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span> The milblogger claimed that a significant number of newly deployed Russian contract servicemen (<em>kontrakniki)</em>
have unrealistically optimistic preconceptions about fighting in
Ukraine and arrive to eastern Ukraine in full confidence that Russian
forces are easily winning in battle. The milblogger added that many of
the newly arrived personnel do not want to learn to fight because they
think that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will provide air support
and that prisoner recruits will defeat Ukrainian forces based on Russian
state propaganda claims. The milblogger observed that Donetsk Peoples
Republic (DNR) elements prefer to operate locally-produced first-person
vision (FPV) drones over those produced and procured by the Russian
“Sudoplatov” volunteer group because “Sudoplatov” drones operate on
wavelengths known to Ukrainian forces. The milblogger claimed that
Central Military District (CMD) drone operators had all of their
“Sudoplatov” drones disrupted after Russian drone malfunctioned and
alerted Ukrainian forces to activate electronic warfare (EW) systems
during the battles for the Avdiivka industrial area. The miblogger
claimed on March 9 that elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle
Brigade (1st DNR AC), which is operating in the Avdiivka direction, has
several separate air defense groups.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div> <div style="font-weight: bold; text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Russia
continues efforts to scale up its production of guided glide bombs for
use in Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat
stated in an interview with <em>CNN </em>published on March 10 that
Russia is focusing on producing FAB-1500 guided glide bombs because they
are far cheaper to produce than missiles.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span>
Ihnat noted that Russia will not be able to quickly increase its
production of the FAB-1500 guided glide bombs, however, and that
producing the bombs will still be costly.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span> German outlet <em>BILD </em>reported on March 7 that Russia has begun mass producing its FAB-1500-M54 guided glide bomb.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span> <em>CNN </em>interviewed
Ukrainian soldiers operating near Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City)
who stated that Russian previously only shelled Ukrainian positions in
the area but are now conducting heavy airstrikes with FAB-1500 bombs.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span> Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Senior Research Fellow Justin Bronk told <em>CNN </em>that
Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has bottlenecks for “glide kits”
(likely referring to universal planning and correction modules [UMPCs]
that Russia attaches to unguided FAB and guided KAB bombs, including
FAB-1500 variants, to turn them into glide bombs) but that Russia has a
significant amount of materiel for the basic explosive package in the
FAB-1500 guided glide bombs.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[74]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong>
(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become
more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international
partners)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note: ISW will be publishing
its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis
in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track
developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will
refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive
Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong>
(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed
areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural,
economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas
twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will
continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will
refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian
Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary. </strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">A
prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger attempted to portray
the recent Moldovan-French defense cooperation agreement and
announcement that the French Ministry of Defense (MoD) will open an
office in Chisinau as evidence that France intends to deploy military
personnel to Moldova and possibly to the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway
republic of Transnistria.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[75]</span>
The milblogger is attempting to further the Kremlin information
operations supporting potential hybrid operations aimed at sabotaging
Moldova’s European Union (EU) accession process.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[76]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong>
(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and
further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner
Group activity in Belarus)</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Nothing significant to report.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Note:
ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only
publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian,
Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as
commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as
the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided
in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_83.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_83.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_83.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_83.jpg" width="500" /></a></strong></p><div><hr align="left" size="1" style="text-align: justify;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/10/rosiyany-zavdaly-udaru-po-myrnogradu-novymy-aviabombamy/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.aljazeera</span> dot com/news/2024/1/11/russia-doubles-down-on-fast-cheap-unguided-bombs-to-strike-ukraine</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/russia-doubles-down-on-fast-cheap-unguided-bombs-to-strike-ukraine</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8132</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sashakots/45443</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115922</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7454</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mk</span> dot ru/politics/2024/03/09/vragi-ocenili-rossiyskaya-armiya-primenila-na-ukraine-novuyu-chudobombu.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sashakots/45443</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8132</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8132</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/basurin_e/9619</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sashakots/45443</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58014</span> ;</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://ura</span> dot news/news/1052741735 ; https://www.fontanka dot ru/2024/03/10/73317530/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18657</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/118008</span> ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36271</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar021524</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://tass</span> dot ru/politika/20194213</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17505</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17505</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_zp/5303</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2023</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2024</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> https://tass dot ru/politika/20195133; https://t.me/tass_agency/235707</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> https://t.me/sotaproject/76424</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4580</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4580</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> https://tass dot ru/politika/20195133</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Oct%2025%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1766476595118653949</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar091623</span> ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar081623</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar071923</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar110923</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar102623</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar081823</span> ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar081623</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/21079</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115966</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/21066</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/21001</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/20836</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/20077</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/293</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/536</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/145</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/KRPRus/83</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7353</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7361</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7362</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/10187</span>; https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/13241</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span> https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/13193</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-20</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=006703778745328820552:rmncc-_xykg&q=https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2023&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwje0KLyxuqEAxWZF1kFHds1BlkQFnoECAUQAg&usg=AOvVaw3IuF8HXRmV_UYlcQYVGi2U</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=006703778745328820552:rmncc-_xykg&q=https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2023&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwje0KLyxuqEAxWZF1kFHds1BlkQFnoECAQQAg&usg=AOvVaw15OpyzyMD-KOLA7DCK27kb</span>;
https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=006703778745328820552:rmncc-_xykg&q=https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwje0KLyxuqEAxWZF1kFHds1BlkQFnoECAkQAg&usg=AOvVaw13m8Hgn8nymAR_Pap6IUHc</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%204%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf</span>; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span>
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl
;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl
; https://t.me/mod_russia/36478 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36474 ;
https://t.me/dva_majors/36235 ; https://t.me/rybar/58033 ;
https://t.me/wargonzo/18648 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8127</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63403</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36478</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13177</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4712</span>; https://t.me/brigada92_war/1361</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63403;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8110;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18648</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36476;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36478;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63406</span> ; . <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63403;https://t.me/dva_majors/36235</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58033</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63403</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63406</span> (Bohdanivka); <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rusich_army/13553</span> (Bakhmut direction); . <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/nm_dnr/11946</span> (Toretsk)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4710</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/lumieregroup/89</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/BUAR110ombr/274</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/klinger66/status/1766863167898935490?s=20</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1766842368873898365?s=20;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1766544702826844373</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1766546264110387403</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/lumieregroup/89</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36478</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36476;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36235</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58033;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18648;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8125;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63433;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/grey_zone/22310</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115968</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8134</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115934</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36235</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58033;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18648</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7447</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7453</span> (Novomykhailivka); <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63428</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/nm_dnr/11945</span> (Krasnohorivka)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[50]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4715</span>; https://t.me/br58ua/338</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[51]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7459</span> (Vuhledar)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[52]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl;</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[53]</span> https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl</span>; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[54]</span> https://t.me/dva_majors/36235 ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58033</span>; https://t.me/wargonzo/18648</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[55]</span> https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/09/u-sylah-oborony-poyasnyly-chomu-rosiyany-shturmuyut-robotyne-na-bagi-ta-golf-karah/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[56]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36469</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8129</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36257</span> (Zaporizhia direction); <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115931</span> (Robotyne)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[57]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0sYjmgzSDYaZ47ViGoDHA45YGLfAtzHGP8yRhdjiwZPbQui4T9qXSxbnwMKsHQrrgl</span>; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cvcTPqXMz5AuaLt6MuN1davS8GYep98VudrEeuZ8NRvU7g2xtMqKesiuoLqRNyNsl ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0BoRQde6WkUxgyXeecuHxQqhAvcozPHD54gJNsZEM8DvZR4HYhGpFYJNuEoUJu5tzl</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/2457</span>; https://t.me/dva_majors/36235 ; https://t.me/rybar/58033</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[58]</span> https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7018 ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7023 ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/7020</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[59]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/kpszsu/11672</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02TBfegDP46fSX6deSPUsphbNbrKKG8fRoVUhJAYenLyVdaTmEumz2ETgKSrvBggb6l</span>; https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/223</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[60]</span> https://t.me/Ukrenergo/2684</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[61]</span> https://t.me/odeskaODA/4394</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[62]</span> https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/3117</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[63]</span> https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/9975</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[64]</span> https://t.me/gubernator_46/5082 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/76428</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[65]</span> https://t.me/gubernator_46/5082 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/76428</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[66]</span> https://isw.pub/UkrWar120622</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[67]</span> https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2023</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[68]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1766510079673524649/photo/2</span>; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1766510079673524649/photo/1</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[69]</span> https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1766510079673524649/photo/1</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[70]</span> https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[71]</span> https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[72]</span>
/https://www.bild dot
de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sie-ist-schwer-wie-ein-auto-putins-monster-bombe-kann-jetzt-fliegen-87436140.bild</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[73]</span> https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[74]</span> https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[75]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://t.me/rybar/58038</span> ; <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-signs-defence-pact-with-france-amid-russia-fears-2024-03-07/</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[76]</span> https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"> </p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-57480723468362892432024-03-09T19:44:00.003-05:002024-03-09T19:44:34.585-05:00 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Christina Haward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, and George Barros</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 9, 2024, 5:55pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:40 pm ET on March 9. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong> <strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting Rostov Oblast overnight on March 8-9 and may have struck a Russian aircraft plant refurbishing and modernizing Russian A-50 long range radar detection aircraft. </strong>The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces intercepted 41 Ukrainian drones overnight over Rostov Oblast, and eyewitnesses reportedly stated that the strike caused at least five explosions.[1] Geolocated footage of a strike shows an explosion at the Beriev Aircraft Plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.[2] The Beriev Aircraft Plant in Taganrog is reportedly refurbishing and modernizing Russian A-50 aircraft for use in Ukraine, and Russian sources claimed that the plant was repairing an A-50 damaged in a previous drone strike (possibly referring to the attack on a Russian A-50 at the Machulishchi Air Base in Minsk, Belarus, in February 2023).[3] <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</em> published satellite imagery dated February 29 indicating that the geolocated explosion occurred roughly 900 meters from a Russian A-50 aircraft that previously had been present at the Beriev Aircraft Plant, although it is unclear whether the A-50 was in the same location at the time of the strike.[4] Senior Ukrainian officials have not commented on the strike at the time of this publication. ISW is unable to confirm that the reported strike damaged any Russian A-50 aircraft, facilities repairing or refurbishing aircraft, or other Russian military infrastructure in the area.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian sources widely circulated footage of a Russian strike on March 9 to claim that Russian forces destroyed a Patriot air defense system in eastern Ukraine, although there has yet to be any confirmation of these claims. </strong>The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage on March 9 purportedly of Russian forces striking a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile launcher with Iskander missiles near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.[5] Russian sources amplified additional footage of the strike’s aftermath purportedly showing destroyed German MAN KAT1 trucks, which can be used as a base for Patriot air defense missile launchers.[6] Russian sources used this footage to claim that Russian forces destroyed a MIM-104 Patriot air defense system, although the Russian MoD has yet to revise its earlier claim about destroying a Ukrainian S-300 system.[7] Russian state media outlet <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RIA Novosti </em>reported that a source in Russian law enforcement stated that the Russian Iskander strike destroyed two Patriot air defense systems.[8] Several OSINT social media accounts concluded that the strike likely destroyed a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system, although another OSINT account noted that Ukrainian forces also use the MAN KAT1 trucks as logistics vehicles.[9] ISW has not yet observed evidence confirming that Russian forces destroyed a Patriot air defense system.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US officials reportedly told <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN </em>that<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>Russia considered using “tactical or battlefield” nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022 – during the same time Russia conducted an intense information operation aimed at the West about Russia potentially using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine to deter Western support for Ukraine. </strong><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN </em>reported on March 9 that two senior Biden administration officials stated that the United States began “preparing rigorously” for a potential Russian “tactical or battlefield” nuclear strike in late 2022 after collecting intelligence indicating that Kremlin officials at various levels were discussing this possibility.[10] The United States reportedly contacted multiple high-level Kremlin officials, discussed the issue with US allies, and asked China and India to discourage Russia. <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN </em>reported that one US official assessed that Chinese and Indian public statements were a “helpful, persuasive factor” that showed Russia the costs of their potential decision. The sources reportedly stated that the United States believed that significant Russian territorial or personnel losses in Ukraine could have been a “potential trigger” for a Russian tactical nuclear strike as the Kremlin viewed areas of occupied Ukraine, such as Kherson City, as Russian territory and potentially viewed the loss of such territories as a direct threat to the Kremlin or the Russian state – one scenario in which Russia would contemplate using nuclear weapons. <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN </em>reported that US officials believed that the Kremlin may have tried to use claims that Ukraine intended to use a “dirty bomb,” which Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other Kremlin officials were reportedly promoting in conversations with Western military and political officials at the time, as “cover” for a Russian tactical nuclear strike. Shoigu and other Kremlin officials routinely publicly promoted claims about a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” in October 2022 as part of an information designed to deter Western security assistance to Ukraine following Ukrainian forces’ rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022.[11] Ukrainian forces have transgressed Russia’s nuclear “red lines” several times over the course of the war with no Russian nuclear strike, indicating that many of Russia’s “red lines” are most likely information operations designed to deter Ukrainian and Western action to defeat Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s liberation of Russian-occupied territories during counteroffensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in fall 2022 and subsequent Ukrainian strikes against occupied Ukraine violated Russia’s ”red lines.”[12] Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO accession also violated Russia’s so-called red lines. ISW continues to assess that Russian nuclear use in Ukraine remains highly unlikely.[13]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Senior Armenian officials stated that Armenia is considering seeking membership in the European Union (EU), against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.</strong> Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated in a March 9 interview with Turkish TV channel <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TRT World</em> that Armenia is considering new opportunities “taking into account the challenges [Armenia] has faced in the last three to four years” including “the idea of joining the EU.”[14] Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan stated on February 29 that ”[Armenia] should think about [seeking EU candidate status].”[15] Russian officials have not responded to Armenian officials’ statements as of this publication. ISW continues to assess that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s acknowledgement and criticism of Armenia’s lack of participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) indicates that the Kremlin may be preparing a more concerted response to its deteriorating relations with Armenia.[16] The Kremlin has conducted hybrid wars against former Soviet states that have sought EU accession.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to negotiations with Russia only after Ukraine and its partners develop a peace plan and as Turkey continues to promote its own negotiation platform for the war in Ukraine. </strong>Zelensky stated that Ukraine would invite representatives of Russia to a peace summit only after Ukraine and other countries have developed a peace plan at a first peace summit.[17] Ukraine plans to hold the first Ukrainian Peace Formula Summit in Switzerland in 2024.[18] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated on March 8 that Turkey is ready to host a peace summit between Ukraine and Russia.[19] ISW continues to assess that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations with Ukraine and has no interest in ending the war on anything but Russia’s articulated maximalist terms of destroying Ukraine’s sovereignty and eradicating the notion of a unique Ukrainian national identity.[20]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting Rostov Oblast overnight on March 8-9 and may have struck a Russian aircraft plant refurbishing and modernizing Russian A-50 long range radar detection aircraft.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian sources widely circulated footage of a Russian strike on March 9 to claim that Russian forces destroyed a Patriot air defense system in eastern Ukraine, although there has yet to be any confirmation of these claims.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US officials reportedly told <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CNN </em>that<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em>Russia considered using “tactical or battlefield” nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022 – during the same time Russia conducted an intense information operation aimed at the West about Russia potentially using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine to deter Western support for Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Senior Armenian officials stated that Armenia is considering seeking membership in the European Union (EU), against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to negotiations with Russia only after Ukraine and its partners develop a peace plan and as Turkey continues to promote its own negotiation platform for the war in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting along the entire frontline on March 9.</strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has reportedly removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities, although ISW cannot independently verify this report.</strong></li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch09%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTMarch09%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced west of Kreminna amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 9. Geolocated footage published on March 8 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Terny (west of Kreminna).[21] Positional fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Lake Lyman; southeast of Kupyansk near Kyslivka; west of Kreminna near Yampolivka and Terny; and south of Kreminna near Spirne.[22] Elements of the Russian 123rd and 7th motorized rifle brigades (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[23]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="787" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Bakhmut on March 9, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces marginally advanced within Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut) and that Russian forces control over half the settlement, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[24] Positional fighting continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Bakhmut near Druzhba and Shumy.[25] Elements of the Russian “Vostok-V” Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near Bohdanivka.[26]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated on March 8 that the situation in the Avdiivka direction has stabilized and that Russian forces are currently only achieving localized marginal advances.[27] Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka as fighting continued in the area on March 9. Geolocated footage published on March 8 shows that Russian forces recently advanced further in central Orlivka (west of Avdiivka).[28] Geolocated footage published on March 9 shows that Russian forces also marginally advanced in fields south of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka), though Russian forces likely did not make this advance recently.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters deep on a 1.27-kilometer-wide front south of Orlivka and up to 1.35 kilometers in depth near southwestern Tonenke.[30] Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove, Berdychi, and Semenivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka, Tonenke and Sieverne; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[31] Elements of the Russian 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) continue to operate in the Avdiivka direction, and elements of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) are reportedly operating near Nevelske.[32]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="720" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Avdiivka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 9, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka (southeast of Vuhledar on the T0509 Vuhledar-Volnovakha-Mariupol highway).[33] Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) reportedly continue to operate near Krasnohorivka.[34]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="771" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="698" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Direction%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 9, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).[35] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have decreased the tempo of their offensive operations near Robotyne due to Ukrainian drone strikes and difficulties clearing seized Ukrainian trenches.[36] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are also struggling with inadequate electronic warfare (EW) protection near Robotyne.[37] Elements of the Russian 69th Covering Brigade and 165th Artillery Brigade (both of the 35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction; elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne; and elements of the 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Robotyne and Verbove.[38]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="639" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pyatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky as of March 9.[39]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea reportedly remains the only Russian naval base on the Black Sea capable of repairing certain types of ships despite Russian efforts to move some BSF naval assets away from the Sevastopol base. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on March 9 that Russian forces are currently repairing the project 775 Ropucha-class <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Olenegorsk Miner</em> and <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Azov</em> large landing ships and the project 1171 Tapir-class <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nikolai Filchenkov</em> large landing ship at the Sevastopol base as this is the only Black Sea naval base that can repair these types of ships.[40] Mashovets also stated that Russian forces currently have docked the project 1135M <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Inquisitive</em> Burevestnik-class patrol ship; the project 22800 <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyclone </em>Karakurt-class corvette; the project 1124 <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kasimov, Muromets, </em>and <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Eisk</em> Grisha-class corvettes; the project 12411 <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Naberezhnye Chelny </em>Tarantul-class corvette; the project 266M <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kovrovets </em>and <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ivan Golubets</em> Natya-class minesweepers; and the project 12700 <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Georgiy Kurbatov </em>and <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ivan Antonov </em>Alexandrit-class minesweepers at the Sevastopol BSF base. Mashovets stated that the project 775 <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yamal</em> Ropucha-class landing ship is currently preparing for sea trials in Sevastopol after Russian forces repaired the ship.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 15 Shahed-136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and that Ukrainian forces shot down 12 of the drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Poltava oblasts.[41] Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces struck an industrial enterprise in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a Ukrainian substation in Zaporizhia Oblast.[42] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces launched a Kh-31 missile at Odesa City and that the missile struck an open field outside of the city.[43]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on March 8 that elements of the Russian 112th Missile Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) stationed in Voronezh Oblast used at least 16 North Korean KN-23 (Hwasong-11 Ga) missiles during the Russian strike series on January 23, February 7, and February 15.[44]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has reportedly removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities, although ISW cannot independently verify this report.[45] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program Senior Fellow Dara Massicot assessed that Russia likely removed its best equipment from strategic reserve and that Russia still retains “worse” or “unsalvageable” equipment in storage. Massicot also assessed that Russia’s “remaining inventory will dwindle in the next couple of years” if Russia continues its current tempo of operations.[46] ISW has observed that reports of Russia’s reported tank “production” numbers in recent years largely reflect restored and modernized tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[47] These assessments suggest that the Russian military has been largely leveraging vehicles from storage to sustain its war effort, rather than using new production to offset battlefield losses. Russia may face equipment shortages in the next several years if Russia’s current loss rate remains the same or accelerates and Russia’s current level of new vehicle production remains the same.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reuters </em>reported on March 8 that the Indian Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) announced that it uncovered “a major human trafficking network” that lured Indian citizens to work in Russia but would force them to join the Russian military.[48] The CBI stated that Russian authorities have coerced about 35 Indian citizens into joining the Russian military after promising them work opportunities. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated in late February that India is aware of several Indian nationals serving in the Russian military and trying to secure the “early discharge” of 20 Indian nationals who were reportedly working as support staff for Russian forces.[49]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces may have formed their first-ever specialized drone brigade. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian military formed the “Grom-Kaskad” Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Brigade consisting of more than 820 personnel and up to 40 UAV crews that operate throughout Ukraine.[50] Mashovets stated that the Russian military formed the “Grom-Kaskad” UAV Brigade on the basis of the “BARS-Kaskad” Combined Tactical Detachment and units of the 55th Helicopter Regiment (4th Air Force and Air Defense Army, Southern Military District [SMD]). Mashovets stated that the brigade is composed of two battalions of reconnaissance and strike UAV operators, one squadron of reconnaissance UAV operators, and up to a company of support units. Mashovets stated that the “Grom-Kaskad” UAV Brigade uses Zala, Orlan-30, Supercam, and first-person view (FPV) drones. This is the first time ISW has observed a report about Russian forces standing up a specialized drone unit at the brigade level.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Air Force (VKS) reportedly started using guided glide bombs against Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently started conducting air strikes with guided glide bombs with universal interspecific glide ammunition (UMPB), as opposed to using unguided glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPK), in unspecified areas in Ukraine.[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that the guided glide bombs with UMPB have jet engines, which are absent from FAB-250/500 bombs with UMPC, and thus can increase the range of a FAB-250/500 from 40-60 kilometers to 80-95 kilometers.[52]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on March 9 that the Russian military conducted 22 joint aerial reconnaissance flights with Belarusian forces along the Belarusian border with Poland and Lithuania in recent days.[53] Mashovets stated that up to two Russian Su-24 aircraft of the 4th Reconnaissance Aviation Squadron participated in the reconnaissance flights and at least one Russian aircraft operated from the Belarusian 61st Fighter Airbase in Baranovichy, Brest Oblast.[54]</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_99.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </strong></p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] <a href="https://t.me/astrapress/50461;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36438;%C2%A0https://www.svoboda%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/astrapress/50461; https://t.me/mod_russia/36438; https://...</a> org/a/hronika-voiny-v-ukraine/31715636.html?lbis=374119</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] <a href="https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1766288510905143657;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1766288510905143657;</a> <a href="https://t.me/vchkogpu/46433?single" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/vchkogpu/46433?single</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1766350946119110691" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1766350946119110691</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36188" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36188</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/svarschiki/7926;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/svarschiki/7926;</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] <a href="https://www.svoboda%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.svoboda dot</a> org/a/hronika-voiny-v-ukraine/31715636.html?lbis=374119</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36445" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36445</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58015" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58015</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/14934" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/14934</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63387" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63387</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58017" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58017</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115869" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115869</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/epoddubny/19293" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/epoddubny/19293</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/grey_zone/22301" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/grey_zone/22301</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/milinfolive/117942" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/milinfolive/117942</a> ;</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58015" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58015</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/14934" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/14934</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63387%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58017%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115869%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/epoddubny/19293%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/grey_zone/22301%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/milinfolive/117942%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63387 ; https://t.me/rybar/58017 ; https://t....</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] <a href="https://t.me/rian_ru/234603" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rian_ru/234603</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] <a href="https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1766445017046904864%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://twitter.com/VigorousFalcon/status/1766442864899137772%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1766445017046904864 ; https://twitt...</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766485479602450775;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766485479602450775;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766490533763969169;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766490533763969169;</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1766493220433703141" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1766493220433703141</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-poten...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-24" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-%E2%80%94-military-threat-and-beyond;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-...</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-6" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> ; <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-february-5-2023" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] <a href="https://www.azatutyun%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.azatutyun dot</a> am/a/32855075.html ; <a href="https://www.politico%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.politico dot</a> eu/article/armenia-mulling-eu-membership-application-foreign-minister-mirzoyan-says/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] <a href="https://www.azatutyun%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.azatutyun dot</a> am/a/32842668.html</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] <a href="https://t.me/MID_Russia/35828" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/MID_Russia/35828</a> ; <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-stress-ukraine-support-during-zelenskiy-visit-turkish-source-says-2024-03-08/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-stress-ukraine-support-...</a> ; <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/701740-erdogan-zaproponuvav-poserednictvo-u-mirnih-peregovorah-za-ucastu-rosii-ale-zelenskij-zapereciv/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar022524" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar022524</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/701740-erdogan-zaproponuvav-poserednictvo-u-mirnih-peregovorah-za-ucastu-rosii-ale-zelenskij-zapereciv/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar010224;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar010224;</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2023-0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a> <a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar122922" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar122922</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] <a href="https://t.me/ssternenko/26079" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ssternenko/26079</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/azov_media/5531" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/azov_media/5531</a> ; <a href="https://x.com/moklasen/status/1766231992280940973?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1766231992280940973?s=20;</a> <a href="https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4696" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4696</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckd...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesUtkHCJFQo9KQTs4Nh3MakThQKZ3tQTVCxQdqDzcHLXv57Sl%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36443%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36439%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18632%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesU...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63370" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63370</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8700" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8700</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] <a href="https://t.me/z_arhiv/26227" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/z_arhiv/26227</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesUtkHCJFQo9KQTs4Nh3MakThQKZ3tQTVCxQdqDzcHLXv57Sl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesU...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckd...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l;%C2%A0https://t.me/z_arhiv/26227;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18632;%C2%A0https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15499;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36443" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36443</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36201%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36201 </a>(Bohdanivka); <a href="https://news%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://news dot</a> ru/regions/vs-rossii-pererezali-snabzhenie-artemovsko-soledarskoj-gruppirovki-vsu/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] <a href="https://suspilne%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://suspilne dot</a> media/701494-armia-rf-kidae-veliki-sili-na-zahoplenna-troh-naselenih-punktiv-na-novopavlivskomu-napramku-osuv-tavria/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] <a href="https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1766217453321826707?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1766217453321826707?s=20;</a> <a href="https://t.me/this_is_war88/256" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/this_is_war88/256</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] <a href="https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12034;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/12034;</a> <a href="https://t.me/pidrozdilshadowoficial/380;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/pidrozdilshadowoficial/380;</a> <a href="https://x.com/moklasen/status/1766253519676321846?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/moklasen/status/1766253519676321846?s=20;</a> <a href="https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1764334495073804606?s=20;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1764334495073804606?s=20;</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63347" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63347</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckd...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36443;%C2%A0https://t.me/rybar/58002;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18632" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18632</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesUtkHCJFQo9KQTs4Nh3MakThQKZ3tQTVCxQdqDzcHLXv57Sl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesU...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36215%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36215 </a>(Avdiivka direction); <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18643%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18643 </a>(Nevelske)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesUtkHCJFQo9KQTs4Nh3MakThQKZ3tQTVCxQdqDzcHLXv57Sl;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesU...</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckd...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l;%C2%A0https://t.me/mod_russia/36443;%C2%A0https://t.me/wargonzo/18632;%C2%A0https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63400;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/36441" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mod_russia/36441</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63400%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63400 </a>(Krasnohorivka)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesUtkHCJFQo9KQTs4Nh3MakThQKZ3tQTVCxQdqDzcHLXv57Sl%C2%A0https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dbi51A5aWAGgxJhvesU...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l%C2%A0;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> <a href="https://t.me/wargonzo/18632" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/wargonzo/18632</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8099" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8099</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8099" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8099</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] <a href="https://t.me/voin_dv/7438%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7438 </a>(69th Brigade) ; <a href="https://t.me/voin_dv/7431%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/voin_dv/7431 </a>(165th Brigade) ; <a href="https://t.me/dva_majors/36176%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/dva_majors/36182%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dva_majors/36176 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36182 </a>(42nd Division) ; <a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63354%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15489%C2%A0" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63354 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/...</a>(247th Regiment)</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckdAjSdUXTEHNsXkpkMnUwVimzMx3v6huTaC2FzZKzYuE6TUl" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid07JjhssYUjP6TFmFQckd...</a> ; <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtPzzAdh8ZDD6xNteGandWm4VECEoTuAFnSGGUEGWAjN9JE5l" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0aHcG5u97LfkaMoUGEtP...</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8098" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8098</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1693" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1693</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] <a href="https://t.me/kpszsu/11636" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/kpszsu/11636</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] <a href="https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/11183;%C2%A0https://www.kmu.gov%C2%A0dot" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/11183; https://www.kmu.gov dot</a> ua/news/sytuatsiia-v-enerhosystemi-stanom-na-9-bereznia</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] <a href="https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/6978" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/6978</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] <a href="https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1717970333259464838?s=20" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1717970333259464838?s=20</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india-says-it-busts-trafficking-racket-duping-people-into-fighting-russia-2024-03-08" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.reuters.com/world/india-says-it-busts-trafficking-racket-dup...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] <a href="https://indianexpress%20dot/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://indianexpress dot</a> com/article/india/indians-russian-army-discharge-mea-9180919/</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58014;%C2%A0https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115788%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/milinfolive/117901%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/milinfolive/117935%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/basurin_e/9619" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58014; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115788 ; https://...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] <a href="https://t.me/rybar/58014%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://t.me/basurin_e/9619" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/rybar/58014 ; https://t.me/basurin_e/9619</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] <a href="https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1692</a></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-91451360043467057662024-03-09T18:18:00.004-05:002024-03-09T18:18:51.581-05:00 Iran Update, March 9, 2024<p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p align="center" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. </em><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a href="https://hello.aei.org/Subscribe-to-Iran-Update.html" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to subscribe to the Iran Update.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 9 and 10, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 11, 2024</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>Palestinian fighters defended against Israeli raids in several sectors of the northern Gaza Strip.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Central Gaza Strip: </strong>The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Gaza Strip:</strong> Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Political Negotiations:</strong> Israeli Mossad Chief Dadi Barnea told CIA Director Bill Burns that Hamas is not interested in a ceasefire deal and is intent to “burn the area” during Ramadan.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israel: </strong>The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting Israeli military and civilian infrastructure in Haifa and in the Golan Heights.</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>The Houthis fired naval missiles at Singapore-flagged, owned, and operated vessel <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">M/V Propel Fortune </em>in the Gulf of Aden.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters defended against Israeli raids in several sectors of the northern Gaza Strip on March 9. </strong>An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) unit in the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps identified several Palestinian fighters operating near Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun and directed an airstrike targeting them.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</span> Israeli forces have been conducting an operation in Beit Hanoun to reclear the area of Palestinian fighters and locate military infrastructure for the past week.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> Palestinian militias reported that their fighters fired mortars and rockets targeting Israeli forces in eastern Jabalia and Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> Palestinian fighters also clashed with Israeli forces in Zaytoun neighborhood.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip on March 9. </strong>Israeli forces killed approximately 10 Palestinian fighters.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span> The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting areas in the central strip from where Palestinian fighters have launched rockets targeting Sderot in southern Israel.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) published footage of its fighters mortaring Israeli forces east of the central Gaza Strip.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis on March 9. </strong>The IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) raided military infrastructure in Hamad neighborhood, northwestern Khan Younis, detained Palestinian militia fighters, and located improvised explosive devices (IED) in the area.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</span> The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), which is a leftist Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war, claimed that its fighters detonated a bomb in Hamad.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span> The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, reported that its fighters fired rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting Israeli forces in Hamad.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span> The IDF Bislamach Brigade clashed with Palestinian fighters in Qarara.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</span> Israeli armor, dismounted infantry, and engineering elements destroyed military infrastructure in Qarara, where Hamas’ Qarara Battalion (Khan Younis Brigade) remains combat effective.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%209%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%209%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli Mossad Chief David Barnea told CIA Director Bill Burns that Hamas is not interested in a ceasefire deal and is intent to “burn the area” during Ramadan.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Barnea and Burns met in Jordan to discuss the state of ceasefire negotiations on March 8.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</span> Barnea said that Hamas is “entrenched in its position,” possibly referencing Hamas’ repeated demands for a permanent ceasefire, return of displaced people, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and sufficient humanitarian aid.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</span> The spokesperson for Hamas’ military wing called for the month of Ramadan to be an escalation of the ”flood of Al Aqsa,” referring to the October 7 attack.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> Ramadan is expected to begin around March 10.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Three US and Israeli officials told Axios on March 9 that United States and international mediators are intensifying their efforts to reach a hostage deal and temporary ceasefire.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 9.</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 8.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 8.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2009%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 1.5385em 1.5385em 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 1.5385em; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting Israeli military and civilian infrastructure in Haifa and in the Golan Heights on March 8.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</strong> The group fired drones targeting an oil refinery in Haifa and an IDF base in the Golan Heights. Israeli officials have not commented on the attack at the time of writing.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%209%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20IDF%20Battle%20Map%20March%209%2C2024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US CENTCOM conducted preemptive strikes targeting two Houthi mobile anti-ship missiles in Houthi-controlled Yemen on March 8.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</strong></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Houthis separately fired naval missiles at Singapore-flagged, owned, and operated vessel <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">M/V Propel Fortune </em>in the Gulf of Aden on March 8.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</strong> CENTCOM and UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed that the missiles did not impact the ship.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Houthis claimed that they launched 37 one-way attack drones targeting US warships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory on March 9.</strong><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</strong> CENTCOM reported that US Navy and coalition aircraft and ships intercepted at least 28 drones.<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</span> CENTCOM reported that the Houthi drones did not damage any US coalition or commercial vessels.</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%209%2C%202024.png" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_98.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /> </p><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr align="left" size="1" style="background: rgb(172, 143, 83); border: none; clear: both; float: none; height: 2px; margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; width: 590px;" width="33%" /></div><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373677333975445" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373677333975445</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[2]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766041419955753171" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766041419955753171</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[3]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4294" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4294</a></span>; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13899" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13899</a></span>; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5967" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5967</a></span>; <a href="https://t.me/sarayaps/17549" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17549</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[4]</span> <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5968" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5968</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[5]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373675702329585" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373675702329585</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[6]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373679359733827" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373679359733827</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[7]</span> <a href="https://t.me/sarayaps/17551" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17551</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[8]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373674062414021" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373674062414021</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[9]</span> <a href="https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4161" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4161</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[10]</span> <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5966" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5966</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766418789317410846" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766418789317410846</a></span>; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373672367870355" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373672367870355</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[12]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766418789317410846" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766418789317410846</a></span>; <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373672367870355;" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766373672367870355;</a> <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/order-battle-hamas%E2%80%99-izz-al-din-al-qassem-brigades-part-2" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/order-battle-hamas%E2%80%9...</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[13]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766503151891366394" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766503151891366394</a></span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[14]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766485214828642588" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766485214828642588</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[15]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766503151891366394" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766503151891366394</a></span>; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.alqassam/" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.alqassam</a></span> dot ps/arabic/news/details/19851</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[16]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/09/ramadan-israel-gaza-ceasefire" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.axios.com/2024/03/09/ramadan-israel-gaza-ceasefire</a></span>; <a href="https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1735" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1735</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</span> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/09/ramadan-israel-gaza-ceasefire" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.axios.com/2024/03/09/ramadan-israel-gaza-ceasefire</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[18]</span> <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5959" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5959</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5960" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5960</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5961" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5961</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5962" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5962</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/alredalsrey/625" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/alredalsrey/625</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766370871352938577" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766370871352938577</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/422" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/422</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/hamza20300/221339" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/hamza20300/221339</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5970" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5970</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[19]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766379126904979812" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766379126904979812</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2503" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2503</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2506" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2506</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2508" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2508</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2510" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2510</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2512" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2512</a> ; <a href="https://t.me/mmirleb/2516" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/mmirleb/2516</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[20]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/982" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/982</a></span> ; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/985" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/985</a></span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766304008506130435" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766304008506130435</a></span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1766366053938905395" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1766366053938905395</a></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[23]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766304008506130435" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766304008506130435</a></span> ; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1766193643835085000" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1766193643835085000</a></span> ; <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1766193643835085000" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1766193643835085000</a></span></p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[24]</span> <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1766366053938905395" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1766366053938905395</a></span> ;</p><p style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.5385; margin: 0px 0px 1.5385em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">[25]</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766510050649022808" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766510050649022808</a> ; <a href="https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766335457049391527" style="background: transparent; color: #006699; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766335457049391527</a></p>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-27936240961324816582024-03-08T21:28:00.005-05:002024-03-08T21:28:54.036-05:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2024<p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and George Barros</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 8, 2024, 6:35pm ET</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30 pm ET on March 8. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to rebuild its forces and means for future offensive operations, as Russia previously did following the start of Russia’s 2014 invasion. </strong>Zelensky stated on March 8 that a pause in fighting in Ukraine would pose a serious challenge and problem both to Ukraine and all of Europe.[1] Zelensky noted that Russia would benefit from a pause or ceasefire as Russian forces would use the pause to optimize Russia’s military and overall war effort, including by training its soldiers, many of whom deploy to the front line with very little training. Zelensky also stated that Russian forces are suffering from missile, artillery, and drone shortages, so Russia is sourcing these weapons from North Korea and Iran and needs to rebuild its stockpiles. Zelensky stated that Russia similarly benefited from previously freezing the war in 2014 and was able to build up its weapons, accumulate forces, and invade Ukraine again in 2022. ISW continues to assess that any ceasefire in Ukraine would benefit Russia, giving it time to reconstitute and regroup for future offensive operations, optimize command and control, implement lessons learned from experience in Ukraine, and resupply Russian forces in a manner that is exceedingly difficult to do while high-intensity combat is underway.[2] Zelensky also stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal is not just to occupy all of Ukraine, but to deprive Ukraine of its independence and integrate Ukraine into Russia using either force or political means.[3] Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly indicated that Russia hopes to occupy most, if not all, of Ukraine and eliminate Ukrainian statehood and independence.[4] Putin has also geographically defined historical ”Russian” lands - a characterization which the Kremlin has used to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine - as encompassing the former Russian Empire and Soviet Union.[5]<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Some Russian forces may have improved their tactical capabilities and leveraged limited tactical surprise during the final weeks of the Russian effort to seize Avdiivka, suggesting that select elements of the Russian military may have internalized tactical adaptations from conducting offensive operations in Ukraine. </strong>Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets published a retrospective on March 8 about the Russian effort to seize Avdiivka in which he stated that Russian forces were able to tactically regroup and shift the tactical focus of their offensive operations from north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka to areas near northeastern Avdiivka.[6] Mashovets stated that Russian forces achieved this regrouping and tactical shift without Ukrainian forces fully realizing that the regrouping had shifted Russia’s tactical focus.[7] Russian forces initially began their turning movement through Avdiivka after making tactical gains in northeastern Avdiivka, and Mashovets’ reporting suggests that Russian forces may have advanced in the area due to some tactical surprise.[8] Even limited tactical surprise, in which attacking forces engage defenders at a time, place, or manner for which the defender is unprepared, is a notable development given that both Russian and Ukrainian forces have widespread visibility throughout the frontline.[9] The Russian force’s ability to achieve elements of tactical surprise in such an operating environment with little-to-no concealment is therefore noteworthy. ISW has not observed other recent notable incidents of Russian forces achieving or leveraging tactical surprise. The reported Russian ability to do so near Avdiivka is not necessarily indicative of a wider Russian capability. Russian forces have shown limited tactical-level adaptations on certain sectors of the front, but continued widespread Russian tactical failures throughout Ukraine suggest that the Russian military command has not internalized and disseminated all possible tactical adaptations among all the various Russian force groupings operating in Ukraine.[10]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated on March 8 that Ukrainian forces are regularly targeting Russian fighter aircraft.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[11]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces continue to conduct guided aerial strikes against Ukrainian frontline positions, but that Russian aircraft “no longer dare” to fly too close to the frontlines and that Ukrainian air defenses recently attempted to strike a Russian aircraft from over 150 kilometers away.[12] Oleshchuk stated that the recent reported downing of Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and Su-34 and Su-35 fighter aircraft have caused Russian forces to ”significantly reduce” the frequency of Russian air strikes in Ukraine.[13] ISW has not observed dispositive evidence that the tempo of Russian unguided glide bomb strikes has decreased, however. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Forbes</em> recently reported that Russian aircraft are conducting one hundred or more sorties per day to conduct unguided glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions at a range of 25 miles (about 40 kilometers), indicating that Russian aircraft are continuing to conduct a relatively high volume of glide bomb strikes in Ukraine despite Ukraine’s claimed shoot-downs of such aircraft.[14]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to send additional aid and materiel to Ukraine. </strong>Czech officials stated on March 8 that Ukraine’s partners have raised enough funds to purchase the first batch of 300,000 shells to send to Ukraine “in the coming weeks.”[15] The Czech Republic is leading an initiative to purchase 800,000 ammunition shells outside of Europe and deliver them to Ukraine.[16] European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis stated on March 8 that the European Union (EU) will send the first tranche of 4.5 billion euros (about $4.9 billion) to Ukraine in March and will send 1.5 billion euros (about $1.6 billion) in April as part of the EU’s previously announced support package of 50 billion euros (about $54.7 billion) for 2024-2027.[17]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors approved a resolution calling for Russia’s withdrawal from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), undermining Russian efforts to use the IAEA and other international organizations to legitimize its occupation of the plant.</strong>[18] The March 7 IAEA resolution calls for the urgent withdrawal of all Russian unauthorized military and other personnel from the ZNPP and the return of the ZNPP to full Ukrainian control.[19] The resolution also expresses significant concern for the unstable security situation at the ZNPP during armed conflict, including the lack of qualified personnel, gaps in planned and preventative maintenance, lack of reliable supply chains, vulnerable water supply for cooling the ZNPP‘s nuclear reactors, and the installation of antipersonnel mines between the ZNPP’s internal and external perimeters.[20] The March 6 resolution echoes previous calls from the IAEA on March 3, 2022, September 15, 2022, November 17, 2022, and September 28, 2023.[21] Russian authorities have repeatedly attempted to use Russia’s physical control over the ZNPP to force international organizations including the IAEA to meet with Russian occupation officials to legitimize Russia’s occupation of the ZNPP and by extension Russia’s occupation of sovereign Ukrainian land.[22] The IAEA’s March 7 resolution reiterates the IAEA’s recognition of Ukraine as the legitimate operator of the ZNPP and undermines the consistent Russian assertion that Russia is the only safe operator of the ZNPP.[23]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian efforts to encourage women to serve in the Ukrainian armed forces continues allowing Ukraine to tap into a wider mobilization base for its war effort. </strong>The Ukrainian Military Media Center reported in honor of International Women’s Day on March 8 that over 45,500 women serve in the Ukrainian army as of January 2024, including more than 13,000 women serving in combat roles.[24] Ukrainian officials previously reported that over 5,000 women were actively serving in frontline combat zones as of November 2023.[25] ISW previously noted that Ukraine has not been conscripting women but that Ukrainian women are nonetheless volunteering for military service, including combat roles, and that Ukrainian society appears to be galvanized by a popular desire to defend Ukraine strong enough to bring so many Ukrainian women near and onto the battlefield of their own accord.[26]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian information space actors are intensifying their focus on covering recent events surrounding the governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and are amplifying Kremlin narratives aimed at destabilizing Moldova to a wider audience. </strong>Gutsul returned from Russia to Chisinau on March 8 without incident and hundreds of supporters gathered to meet her at the airport.[27] US-sanctioned, pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician Ilan Shor claimed on March 7 that Moldovan authorities would arrest Gutsul upon her arrival to Moldova after the Moldovan Prosecutor General’s Office publicly stated that Moldovan authorities collected enough evidence to demonstrate Gutsul’s involvement in unspecified criminal acts.[28] Kremlin newswire <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TASS </em>closely followed Gutsul’s return to Moldova on March 8, reporting that Gutsul stated that Moldova must have friendly relations with Russia and criticized Moldovan President Maia Sandu after arriving at the Chisinau airport.[29] An abnormally large number of Russian milbloggers reported on Gutsul’s return to Moldova and promoted commonplace Kremlin narratives that target the Moldovan government.[30] Such a pattern of activity could indicate a centrally directed Kremlin information operation. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin’s intensified focus on spreading destabilizing narratives regarding Gagauzia after a recent rhetorical focus on Moldova’s other pro-Russian region, the breakaway republic of Transnistria, indicates that the Kremlin seeks to use both these regions in information operations to support hybrid operations aimed at sabotaging Moldova‘s EU accession process.[31]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A recent Russian state-run poll suggests that the Kremlin aims for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s predetermined “support level” to be around 80 percent in the upcoming March 17 presidential election in an effort to portray Putin as legitimately popular and use the March election to legitimize Putin’s next term. </strong>The Public Opinion Foundation, a Russian state-owned polling institution, reported on March 7 that roughly 83 percent of Russians surveyed view Putin favorably and that roughly 82 percent plan to vote for him in the upcoming presidential election.[32] The Public Opinion Foundation published the results of another poll on March 5 claiming that 83 percent of Russians plan to vote in the upcoming election.[33] The Public Opinion Foundation’s numbers are consistent with recent reporting from Russian opposition outlets suggesting that the Kremlin aims to portray the election as having a 70-80 percent turnout and for Putin to win the election with 80 percent of the votes.[34] The Kremlin is likely using claims of strong voter turnout and support for Putin to set informational conditions to portray Russian society as confidently unified around Putin and his agenda.[35]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to rebuild its forces and means for future offensive operations, as Russia previously did following the start of Russia’s 2014 invasion.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Some Russian forces may have improved their tactical capabilities and leveraged limited tactical surprise during the final weeks of the Russian effort to seize Avdiivka, suggesting that select elements of the Russian military may have internalized tactical adaptations from conducting offensive operations in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated on March 8 that Ukrainian forces are regularly targeting Russian fighter aircraft.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to send additional aid and materiel to Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors approved a resolution calling for Russia’s withdrawal from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), undermining Russian efforts to use the IAEA and other international organizations to legitimize its occupation of the plant.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian efforts to encourage women to serve in the Ukrainian armed forces continues allowing Ukraine to tap into a wider mobilization base for its war effort.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian information space actors are intensifying their focus on covering recent events surrounding the governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and are amplifying Kremlin narratives aimed at destabilizing Moldova to a wider audience.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A recent Russian state-run poll suggests that the Kremlin aims for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s predetermined “support level” to be around 80 percent in the upcoming March 17 presidential election in an effort to portray Putin as legitimately popular and use the March election to legitimize Putin’s next term.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 8.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BBC Russian Service</em></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> and Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mediazona </em>published a joint report on March 8 that at least 46,678 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, including at least 1,555 confirmed killed in the past two weeks.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unspecified actors, likely Ukrainian partisans, assassinated a Russian occupation official in occupied Berdyansk, Kherson Oblast on March 6.</strong></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></strong></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. </em></strong> </p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 8, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Kyslivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[36] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Synkvivka, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[37] Elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Army Corps) are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka.[38]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Bakhmut area on March 8. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are conducting assaults within Ivanivske and attempting to push Ukrainian forces from positions in the western part of the settlement.[39] Positional fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka; northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Bakhmut near Pivdenne and Niu York.[40] Elements of the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Northern Fleet) are reportedly operating near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut).[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced northwest and west of Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting in the area. Geolocated footage published on March 8 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced to windbreaks east of Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka).[42] Additional geolocated footage published on March 8 indicates that Russian forces advanced within northwestern Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).[43] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the western outskirts of Berdychi and Orlivka (west of Avdiivka) and that Russian forces have recently shifted assaults towards the southern outskirts of Orlivka instead of trying to advance directly into the settlement from the east.[44] Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Berdychi and forced Russian forces to retreat from unspecified positions near Tonenke.[45] Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Semenivka; west of Avdiivka near Orlivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[46]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued west and southwest of Donetsk City on March 8. Russian milbloggers claimed on March 7 and 8 that Russian forces maintain positions in southern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City) and recently advanced along Lermontova Street.[47] ISW has not observed recent confirmation of Russian advances within Krasnohorivka following Ukrainian statements that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of southern Krasnohorivka on February 27.[48] A Russian milblogger claimed on March 8 that Russian forces control half of Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[49] Several Russian milbloggers claimed on March 7 and 8 that Ukrainian forces regularly counterattack west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Marinka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.[50] Positional fighting also continued near Heorhiivka.[51] Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Heorhiivka.[52]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued near Vodyane (east of Velyka Novosilka) in western Donetsk Oblast on March 8.[53] Elements of the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are reportedly operating south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine.[54]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 8. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured several unspecified positions northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyne) and advanced one kilometer in depth from Verbove towards Robotyne, although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[55] Positional fighting continued near Robotyne and west of Verbove.[56] Elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.[57]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky, on March 8.[58] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces have constructed a multi-layered defense in the Kherson direction and that Russian forces continue to mine the left bank due to fears of future Ukrainian advances.[59]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%208%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 8 that Russian forces launched an S-300 anti-aircraft guided missile, two Kh-32 guided missiles, and 37 Shahed-136/131 drones at targets in Ukraine overnight on March 7-8.[60] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly downed 33 Shahed drones over Kirovohrad, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts.[61] Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office reported that Russian forces struck Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast with an S-300 missile, and Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian Shahed drones struck infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[62] Ukrainian Air Force Command Spokesperson Oleksandr Olekhnovych reported that Russian forces are increasingly relying on ballistic missiles to conduct strikes.[63]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BBC Russian Service</em> and Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mediazona </em>published a joint report on March 8 that at least 46,678 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.[64] The <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BBC Russian Service</em> and <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mediazona </em>noted that the campaign for Avdiivka, ongoing localized offensive efforts west of Avdiivka, and ongoing fighting in Luhansk Oblast have precipitated a surge in confirmed Russian casualties. The actual number of Russians killed in action is likely much higher than <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BBC Russian Service</em> and <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mediazona</em>’s estimate due to natural delays in casualty reporting in the open-source information space and the fact that a number of deaths will remain publicly unconfirmed. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mediazona </em>and opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Meduza </em>recently estimated that between 66,000 to 88,000 Russian military personnel died in Ukraine between February 2022 and December 2023.[65]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian authorities continue to conduct raids targeting migrants likely in support of force generation efforts. Russian opposition outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mobilization News</em> reported on March 8 that Russian law enforcement raided a warehouse of Russian online retail giant Wildberries in Yekaterinburg, in which Russian authorities detained over 30 migrants.[66] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mobilization News</em> reported that Russian authorities are sending the migrants to military registration and enlistment offices.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">German outlet <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BILD </em>reported on March 7 that Russia has begun mass producing its FAB-1500-M54 unguided glide bomb.[67] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BILD </em>noted that the FAB-1500-M54 weighs over 1,500 kilograms, has a payload of 675 kilograms, has a reported range of over 70 kilometers, and uses satellite or laser-based technology, reportedly to strike targets with an accuracy of 20 meters. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BILD </em>noted that the FAB-1500-M54's destruction radius exceeds 200 meters, however, which <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BILD </em>states makes the FAB-1500-M54 a low-accuracy and high-damage bomb.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian law enforcement continues crackdowns against Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Presidential Representation in Crimea reported on March 5 that Russian occupation officials searched 10 homes of Crimean Tatars in occupied Bakhchisarai and Dzhankoi raions.[68] The Ukrainian Permanent Representative to Crimea reported that Russian authorities detained 10 Tatar religious and activist figures and are charging most of these figures with participating in a “terrorist” organization.[69] Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) uncovered a cell of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization (an Islamist fundamentalist political organization that has historically been active in Central Asia and Crimea and is banned in Russia), however. Russian authorities have historically targeted Crimean Tatar communities to consolidate social control over occupied Crimea, promoting the claim that anti-Russian sentiment is extremist or terrorist activity by affiliating it with Hizb ut-Tahrir.[70]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Unspecified actors, likely Ukrainian partisans, assassinated a Russian occupation official in occupied Berdyansk, Kherson Oblast on March 6. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that unspecified actors planted and detonated a bomb in or near a car in occupied Berdyansk, killing occupation election commission member and Berdyansk occupation deputy mayor for economy, agriculture, and finance Svetlana Samolienko.[71]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian sources, including a Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger, continued to criticize Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and portray Armenia as weak on March 8 for Armenia’s decisions to distance itself from Russia.[72]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Veteran Russian propagandist and <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RT </em>editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan misconstrued warnings from the American and British embassies in Russia about a possible terrorist attack in Moscow to insinuate that the US and the United Kingdom would be complicit in any terrorist attack against Russia.[73] This information operation seeks to promote the Kremlin narrative that the West poses a threat to Russia as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin “fully controls” the Belarusian government and military and stated that de facto Russian control over Belarus is “diplomatic occupation.”[74]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_96.jpg" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_96.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://t.me/OP_UA/11681 ; https://suspilne dot media/701374-zelenskij-pauza-u-vijni-velika-problema-dla-ukraini-ta-vsiei-evropi/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112723 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122722 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar12232022 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-22-2023 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110423 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://www.pravda dot com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/8/7445575/ ; https://t.me/OP_UA/11681</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022224</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-28-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-19-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112823</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1688 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1689 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1690 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1688 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1689 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1690 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1688 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1689 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1690 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021324</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://isw.pub/UkrWar110123</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar110123 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/222 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/08/mykola-oleshhuk-peredbachaye-shho-u-rosijskij-aviacziyi-mozhlyvyj-sabotazh/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/222</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/222</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://mil.in dot ua/uk/news/lyshe-pershyj-vnesok-chehiya-ne-zavershyla-zbir-koshtiv-na-800-tysyach-boyeprypasiv/ ; https://denikn dot cz/1372300/asi-myslel-prvni-varku-fialuv-muz-vyvraci-pavlova-slova-ze-mame-dost-penez-na-munici-pro-ukrajinu/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2024 ; https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-republic-backtracks-on-finding-cash-to-buy-800000-shells-for-ukraine/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://suspilne dot media/701524-dombrovskis-ukraina-otrimae-persij-trans-vid-es-u-45-mlrd-evro-u-berezni-se-15-mlrd-u-kvitni/ ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14HSarTk4kw ; https://www.pravda dot com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/8/7445589/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://mev.gov dot ua/novyna/rezolyutsiya-rady-keruyuchykh-mahate-vid-7-bereznya-2024-roku</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://mev.gov dot ua/novyna/rezolyutsiya-rady-keruyuchykh-mahate-vid-7-bereznya-2024-roku</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://mev.gov dot ua/novyna/rezolyutsiya-rady-keruyuchykh-mahate-vid-7-bereznya-2024-roku</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gc/gc67-res16.pdf; https://mev.gov dot ua/novyna/rezolyutsiya-rady-keruyuchykh-mahate-vid-7-bereznya-2024-roku</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-18; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-assessment-july-8-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-29-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-3; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20March%206%2C%202024%20%28PDF%29.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://t.me/militarymediacenter/3768 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://isw.pub/UkrWar010924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://isw.pub/UkrWar010924</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://t.me/tass_agency/235526; https://t.me/tass_agency/235528;<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>https://t.me/tass_agency/235531 ; https://t.me/evgheniagutul/2448</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2024 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235418</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://t.me/tass_agency/235527 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235453 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235459</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://t.me/rybar/57989 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18623 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18626 ; https://t.me/sashakots/45414</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/20189071; https://media.fom dot ru/fom-bd/d092024.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://fom dot ru/Politika/14988</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%204%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20February%2019%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%204%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0JbtSTCvGLsGx4u8Sd8pvxSzcg6Fkg5aqJKwf9uY3HXAbsChibqcmThAnP136cLN5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36420 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13125</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://t.me/wargonzo/18617</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/mod_russia/36420 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0JbtSTCvGLsGx4u8Sd8pvxSzcg6Fkg5aqJKwf9uY3HXAbsChibqcmThAnP136cLN5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8052 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18617</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63297</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1766059590548852785; https://twitter.com/PauliusZaleckas/status/1766084516811051213</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1766079816560697771; https://t.me/marmuletik/21314; https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1766079821732344196</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8049 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18617 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54584 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0JbtSTCvGLsGx4u8Sd8pvxSzcg6Fkg5aqJKwf9uY3HXAbsChibqcmThAnP136cLN5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36420 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18617</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/rybar/57969 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8053 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8648</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8053 ; https://t.me/rybar/57969</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18617 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63296 ; https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/8648</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://t.me/mod_russia/36421 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36416</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://t.me/voin_dv/7414</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15472 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15459; https://t.me/tass_agency/235483 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0JbtSTCvGLsGx4u8Sd8pvxSzcg6Fkg5aqJKwf9uY3HXAbsChibqcmThAnP136cLN5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36421 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18617 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/9965 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/dva_majors/36133 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/9965 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0JbtSTCvGLsGx4u8Sd8pvxSzcg6Fkg5aqJKwf9uY3HXAbsChibqcmThAnP136cLN5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36079</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://suspilne dot media/701608-oblastuvanna-fortifikacijnih-sporud-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-hersonsini/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://t.me/kpszsu/11587 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0UwznxsBqjV1BAvcPxHGXE6RaWqkYoMDSVSAFtpxMD78jbsb7u1Bk7TR49wnb3qnAl ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/6948 </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WuuNfV1ss1zboeqf4rNBty3m69W8E9PoxApF5Y5LS7SY52io7L1eT3sxjVptnNpml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0uXdEfFriqALYhf22c6L6F7Yw8h1ZMoKm86MRhHF5371G9HERWMgKGUxj5EyEGnwFl ; https://t.me/kpszsu/11587</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0MDudKKWYdjzX57ov1Dfg4eaMvTFsBm6WKPqrQz4T9gSYEcSNpTbK7VhSa79owiqBl ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/6940 ; https://t.me/prokuratura_kharkiv/14484?single</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/08/u-ps-zsu-rozpovily-pro-zminy-v-povitryanyh-atakah-z-boku-rosiyan/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://t.me/bbcrussian/61841; https://storage.googleapis dot com/gsc-link/www.bbc.com/f9fe18ac.html; https://t.me/severrealii/23590</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://t.me/mobilizationnews/17886</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://web.archive.org/web/20240307221104/https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sie-ist-schwer-wie-ein-auto-putins-monster-bombe-kann-jetzt-fliegen-87436140.bild.html; https://www.bild dot de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sie-ist-schwer-wie-ein-auto-putins-monster-bombe-kann-jetzt-fliegen-87436140.bild.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://www.facebook.com/ppu.gov.ua/posts/pfbid0379ZPcE9agmdXDt8KUbzRZRxuoYHbvDP8CkfVHzdtfVMBCmYr9XuQqQScmFAkKnedl ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/05/u-krymu-okupanty-provely-obshuky-u-10-domivkah-krymskyh-tatar/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[69] https://www.facebook.com/ppu.gov.ua/posts/pfbid0379ZPcE9agmdXDt8KUbzRZRxuoYHbvDP8CkfVHzdtfVMBCmYr9XuQqQScmFAkKnedl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[70] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20January%2030%2C%202023.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[71] https://t.me/DIUkraine/3559; https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/na-zaporizhzhi-likviduvaly-organizatorku-vyboriv/; https://t.me/sledcom_zaporozhye/562 ; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1765387824616952156?s=20 ; https://t.me/astrapress/50332; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54544; https://t.me/bbcrussian/61758; https://t.me/BalitskyEV/2744</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[72] https://t.me/rybar/57967 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36070 ; https://t.me/rybar/57987</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[73] https://t.me/margaritasimonyan/13794</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[74] https://suspilne dot media/701558-zelenskij-pro-souz-rf-ta-bilorusi-diplomaticna-okupacia-nezaleznoi-derzavi/ ; https://t.me/OP_UA/11681</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-27732951084720062532024-03-08T21:26:00.000-05:002024-03-08T21:26:01.638-05:00Iran Update, March 8, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Ahmad Omid Arman, </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Alexandra Braverman, and Brian Carter</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The United States will construct a temporary pier on the coast of the Gaza Strip to facilitate the arrival and distribution of humanitarian aid. </strong>US President Joe Biden said during the State of the Union address on March 7 that he ordered the US military to lead an “emergency mission” to establish the pier.[1] Biden stressed that US servicemembers would not operate on the ground in the Gaza Strip. The United States will conduct a Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS). A JLOTS involves creating a floating pier for ship-to-shore operations.[2] The Pentagon press secretary said that the pier will be able to receive two million meals per day.[3] The secretary also noted that the pier facilities could take two months to become fully operational and will require up to 1,000 US military personnel to complete it.[4] Biden told reporters on March 8 that Israel would secure the temporary pier.[5] Thousands of Palestinians have surrounded aid shipments in the past, which underscores the need for security to ensure the fair, safe, and organized distribution of aid.[6]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The European Union announced on March 8 that it is planning to open an emergency maritime aid corridor from Cyprus to the Gaza Strip sometime between March 8 and 10 as part of a joint effort with its allies, including the United States.[7] The EU and the Cypriot Government said that all the efforts to open a maritime corridor will be “closely coordinated with Israel.”[8] The Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson welcomed the maritime corridor plan, noting that the aid must go through "security checks...in accordance with Israeli standards."[9] An anonymous Israeli official said that under the latest plan, UAE-donated aid would first go to Cyprus. Unspecified authorities would then inspect the aid before ships transport it to the Gaza Strip coast.[10]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said that US forces have not deterred the Houthis during a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on March 7.[11]</strong> Kurilla added that in his estimation, the United States will need to impose a "cost” on Iran to stop the Houthis from continuing attacks.[12] Kurilla highlighted the importance of targeting Iran’s ability to resupply the Houthis.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Kurilla also said that US airstrikes on February 2 and February 7 deterred Iran or its proxies and partners from continuing attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Kurilla reported that there has not been an attack on US forces in Iraq or Syria in 32 days.[13] US forces struck 85 Iranian-backed targets in Iraq and Syria on February 2 and killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in Baghdad on February 7 who was responsible for the deaths of US servicemembers. Kurilla emphasized that deterrence is temporary.[14] Iranian-backed militias have conducted attacks targeting US service members prior to October 7. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq can resume attacks at a time, place, and for reasons of their choosing, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.[15] ran has continued to send arms and funds to its militias despite the pause in attacks.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Kurilla also said that Iran continues to support Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and armed groups in the West Bank.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip: </strong>The United States will construct a temporary pier on the coast of the Gaza Strip to facilitate the arrival and distribution of humanitarian aid.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The European Union announced that it is planning to open an emergency maritime aid corridor from Cyprus to the Gaza Strip sometime between March 8 and 10 as part of a joint effort with its allies, including the United States.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US Military Operations in the Middle East:</strong> CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said that US forces have not deterred the Houthis during a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing. Kurilla also said that US airstrikes on February 2 and February 7 deterred Iran or its proxies and partners from continuing attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Kurilla emphasized that deterrence is temporary.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Northern Gaza Strip: </strong>The Israel Defense Forces conducted a clearing operation to reclear Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran: </strong>Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights:</strong> Israeli news reported that the IDF ordered Brig. Gen. Moshe Tamir to draft plans for a possible Israeli ground operation into southern Lebanon.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>US CENTCOM intercepted three drones that the Houthis launched toward the Gulf of Aden.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2008%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2008%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a clearing operation to reclear Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip. </strong>The IDF Kfir Brigade’s Netzah Yuhda Battalion (143rd Division) operated in Beit Hanoun during the last week, engaging Palestinian fighters and destroying military infrastructure, including tunnel shafts.[16] The Kfir Brigade previously operated in the Gaza Strip but withdrew in January 2024.[17] The IDF said on December 18, 2023, that it had destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion after conducting a nearly two-month-long clearing operation in the area.[18] Hamas exploited Israeli withdrawals in late December 2023 to infiltrate areas that Israeli forces had previously cleared and reconstitute some of its militia units. CTP-ISW has observed Palestinian fighters active in Beit Hanoun four times in March. CTP-ISW only observed Palestinian fighter activity once in February.[19] Palestinian fighters in Beit Hanoun have operated a drone near Israeli forces, attempted to establish a reconnaissance position, and shot at Israeli forces since February.[20]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip on March 8.[21] </strong>Israeli forces killed 15 Palestinian fighters with sniper fire, tanks, and airstrikes.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in some areas of northern Khan Younis on March 8. </strong>Three IDF brigades engaged Palestinian fighters in Hamad neighborhood, northwestern Khan Younis.[22] Palestinian fighters have been conducting a deliberate defense of Hamad since Israeli forces advanced into the neighborhood on March 3.[23] The IDF had intelligence that Palestinian fighters retreated from other areas in Khan Younis to hide in Hamad.[24] Palestinian fighters claimed most of their attacks in the Gaza Strip on March 8 in Hamad.[25] The IDF Bislamach Brigade continued offensive operations in Qarara, northern Khan Younis, and located tunnel shafts.[26] Hamas’ Qarara Battalion, which is in the Khan Younis Brigade, remains combat effective.[27]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2008%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2008%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Battlemap%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli media reported on March 8 that Israeli officials have discussed arming civilians in the Gaza Strip to provide security for aid convoys.[28] </strong>Local police are refusing to provide security for the convoys because of Israeli airstrikes targeting members of Hamas’ police force. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed a decision on arming civilians. The United States has warned Israel that a “total breakdown of law and order” is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the strip.[29] The absence of a local security force contributes to this issue.[30]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">A Palestinian journalist reported on March 8 that local tribal committees in the Gaza Strip agreed to ensure the safe passage of aid trucks in eastern Rafah after “local authorities” requested them to do so.[31] These ”local authorities“ are very likely Hamas. Hamas relies on its local police system to maintain social control. The IDF has targeted Hamas’ police and internal security apparatus to disrupt Hamas’ attempts to rebuild its governing authority in the Strip.[32] The Civil Police and the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry's Internal Security Forces in the Gaza Strip both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.[33]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian fighters have conducted one indirect fire attack from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on March 7.[34] </strong>PIJ claimed responsibility for the rocket attack.[35]<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF 215th Artillery Brigade (162nd Division), which has been targeting Palestinian militia positions and assets in the northern Gaza Strip, shelled the areas from which Palestinian fighters fired rockets targeting southern Israel on March 7.[36] The IDF destroyed a weapons depot, tunnels, and a rocket launcher.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least four times across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on March 7.[37] </strong>The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades conducted a complex attack targeting Israeli forces near Homesh, south of Jenin.[38] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fighters first fired at an IDF outpost. The fighters then ambushed IDF reinforcements responding to the attack with small arms and rudimentary improvised explosive devices. A complex attack uses more than one type of weapon, such as IEDs and direct-fire weapons, to target opposing forces.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hamas claimed that attacks targeting Israeli forces and Israeli settlers in the West Bank will intensify during Ramadan.[39]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024_0.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024_0.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024_0.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024_0.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 7.[40] </strong>Hezbollah claimed six total attacks.[41] The IDF said it intercepted a Hezbollah one-way attack drone that entered Israeli airspace on March 7.[42]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli news reported that the IDF ordered Brig. Gen</strong>.<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Moshe Tamir to draft plans for a possible Israeli ground operation into southern Lebanon.[43] </strong>Israeli forces will reportedly use multiple entry points during a ground operation and seek to push Hezbollah forces 10 kilometers north of the Israel-Lebanon border. An operation that only pushes Hezbollah forces 10 kilometers from the Israeli border does not reach the Litani River. UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War, stipulates that Hezbollah cannot maintain military positions south of the Litani River.[44] Tamir formerly served as the commander of the Golani Brigade (36th Division) and drafted the IDF’s clearing operation plans for the Gaza Strip.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%208%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi in a telephone call on March 8.[45] </strong>Abdollahian and Busaidi discussed the need for Muslim countries to pressure Israel to end the war. Abdollahian accused the United States of acting in “bad faith” during negotiations aimed at lifting unspecified sanctions on Iran. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in September 2023 that Oman would facilitate future nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West.[46]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">US CENTCOM intercepted three drones that the Houthis launched toward the Gulf of Aden on March 7.[47] </strong>CENTCOM confirmed that its forces separately conducted preemptive strikes targeting four mobile anti-ship cruise missiles and one drone in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on March 7. Houthi-affiliated media confirmed that the strikes on March 7 struck areas in Hudaydah.[48]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2008%2C2024.png" href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2008%2C2024.png" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%2008%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <img data-mce-src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_97.jpg" src="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20logo_97.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://time.com/6898705/read-president-joe-bidens-2024-state-of-the-union-address-full-transcript/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://twitter.com/JM_Szuba/status/1766190098826047828?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-03-08/gaza-temporary-seaport%C2%A0hamas-israel-humanitarian-aid%C2%A0-13255463.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-08-24/h_ad1e6d13c66574025768bebd364c200b</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1766197487872664021?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/08/middleeast/gaza-flour-massacre-idf-report-intl/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_24_1384</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_24_1384 ; https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147422</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/israel-welcomes-opening-of-maritime-aid-corridor-from-cyprus-to-gaza/; https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense/2910618/israel-welcomes-maritime-corridor-for-humanitarian-aid-into-gaza</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/world/middleeast/us-gaza-pier-ships-aid.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-services-committee-hearing-posture-of-united-states-central-comman/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-services-committee-hearing-posture-of-united-states-central-comman/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-services-committee-hearing-posture-of-united-states-central-comman/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/Transcripts/Article/3700887/senate-armed-services-committee-hearing-posture-of-united-states-central-comman/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-3-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766041419955753171; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766041170747002947</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1749371302501052508</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1736751817852146169</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1754784244910432652; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754759258015437149; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764902155566092383; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765274222488621166; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1730;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1731</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1754784244910432652; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754759258015437149; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764902155566092383; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765274222488621166; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1730;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1731</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766000501168951799</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766000497448661059; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766000499227078899</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188165642805459; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-3-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://www.idf dot il/184023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5951; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4551; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5954; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1732</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766000495829684515</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://www.bing.com/search?pglt=41&q=hamas+orbat+22&cvid=80f1f79019634b7791689853d5a09f14&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIICAEQ6QcY8gcyBwgCEEUY_FXSAQgzMDE4ajBqMagCALACAA&FORM=ANNAB1&PC=U531</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/report-israeli-officials-mull-arming-some-gaza-civilians-as-aid-security-crumbles/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/gaza-humanitarian-aid-israel-hamas-police-biden</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/with-police-absent-gaza-vigilante-groups-arrive-streets-2024-03-06/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1765993628327973346</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1754024593151434865 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-forces-pound-gaza-hamas-studies-ceasefire-proposal-2024-01-31/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/civil_police/; https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/internal_security_force/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1765833405160136819</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://t.me/sarayaps/17548</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1763818832940949672 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766000494021931386</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5949 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766107654701666473 ; https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4976 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5948 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5955</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766107654701666473 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766108204793008424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://t.me/hamasps/19711</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/mmirleb/2499 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2497 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2495 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2493 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2491 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765800800478015636 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766114321778536590</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/mmirleb/2499 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2497 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2495 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2493 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2491</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765800800478015636</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://13tv dot co dot il/item/news/politics/security/northen-war-903966089</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://peacemaker.un.org/israellebanon-resolution1701</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://mfa.gov dot ir/portal/NewsView/741051; https://www.mehrnews dot com/news/6049709</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85217435 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/10/2950488 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-1-2023-64f2729e35088#_edn81d812aca234bec2f6c15c81636d37f923</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1765976902957744281</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://english dot almasirah dot net dot ye/news/18198/US-UK-aggression-targeted-Salif-district-in-Hodeidah-by-two-airstrikes</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-84928748755315655042024-03-08T16:51:00.005-05:002024-03-08T16:51:30.153-05:00China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 7, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Authors: Nils Peterson, Matthew Sperzel, and Daniel Shats of the Institute for the Study of War</strong></p><div class="WordSection1"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong></strong></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong>Editors: </strong><a data-mce-href="https://www.aei.org/profile/dan-blumenthal/" href="https://www.aei.org/profile/dan-blumenthal/"><strong>Dan Blumenthal</strong></a><strong> </strong><strong>and </strong><a data-mce-href="https://www.aei.org/profile/frederick-w-kagan/" href="https://www.aei.org/profile/frederick-w-kagan/"><strong>Frederick W. Kagan</strong></a><strong> of the American Enterprise Institute</strong></div><strong></strong><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><strong>Data Cutoff: March 7 at 12:00pm ET</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>The
China–Taiwan Weekly Update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s
paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait
developments.</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Key Takeaways</span></strong></p><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Taiwan’s
Coast Guard Administration (CGA) claimed that three Chinese Coast Guard
ships entered Taiwan’s contiguous zone off the east coast of the main
island on February 27.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The Kuomintang (KMT) initiated a
legislative inquiry into the Kinmen capsizing incident to determine the
liability of Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration. This supports the
efforts of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to vilify and undermine
domestic Taiwanese support for the Democratic Progressive Party.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">PRC
Premier Li Qiang’s work report to the National People’s Congress
continued a trend of CCP officials using more belligerent language about
“reunification” with Taiwan but did not signal a major policy change.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Recent
PRC diplomatic outreach in Europe may aim to advance the PRC’s
September 2023 Proposal on the Reform and Development of Global
Governance, which faults the West for the war in Ukraine.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Chinese
Coast Guard (CCG) ships fired water cannons and collided with
Philippine ships while attempting to block a Philippine resupply mission
to Second Thomas Shoal.</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/China%20Update%20Draft%20March%205%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/China%20Update%20Draft%20March%205%2C%202024.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/China%20Update%20Draft%20March%205%2C%202024.png" height="425" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/China%20Update%20Draft%20March%205%2C%202024.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: underline;">Cross-Strait Relations</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Taiwan</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Taiwan’s
Coast Guard Administration claimed that three Chinese Coast Guard ships
entered Taiwan’s contiguous zone off the east coast of the main island
on February 27</strong>.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span>
The contiguous zone around Taiwan and its closer islands constitutes
the buffer between 12 and 24 nautical miles from the coast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span>
Taiwanese media reported that the presence of Chinese Coast Guard (CCG)
vessels in the waters along Taiwan’s east coast is rare, and the three
vessels in question usually operate around the contested Senkaku
Islands, which Japan controls.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span>
The CCG vessels left without incident after the Coast Guard
Administration (CGA) deployed to the location and demanded that they
depart the area.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span>
This incident coincides with a consistently higher presence of PRC
ships in the waters around Kinmen since the capsizing incident. The
Kinmen capsizing incident refers to the February 14 event in which a PRC
fishing boat in Taiwan’s waters capsized while fleeing from a legal
Taiwanese Coast Guard pursuit. The capsizing resulted in the deaths of
two of the four fishermen onboard. CGA Director General Chou Mei-wu
reported increased PRC vessel presence near Kinmen since the incident,
with up to 11 vessels per day, including law enforcement and official
ships.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
presence of more CCG vessels around Taiwan’s water serves to
incrementally challenge and erode the Republic of China's (ROC)
sovereignty in its adjacent waters. Normalizing operations around
Taiwan’s waters can set conditions for the PRC to apply further pressure
on Taiwan in the future. The CCP does not accept Taiwan’s sovereignty
over the waters. PRC Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) spokesperson Zhu
Fenglian denied the existence of Taiwan’s so-called prohibited and
restricted waters on February 28.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span>
The increase in the number of the CCG vessels illustrates the PRC’s
opportunism as it capitalizes on heightened cross-strait tensions and
political sensitivity stemming from the Kinmen capsizing incident.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
PRC’s intensified maritime activities complement its regular violations
of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Retired ROC Air
Force Lieutenant General Chang Yen-ting pointed out on February 29 that
the Ministry of National Defense (MND) detected a People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) aircraft as close as 23 nautical miles from Taiwan’s northern
coast.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span>
Chang highlighted the proximity to Taiwan’s airspace and the challenges
to the military’s operational depth and early warning time. The ROC Air
Force announced on March 6 that it would resume nighttime flight
training.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span>
Chang stated in an interview that the measure is a necessary response
to the higher frequency of PLA aircraft harassing Taiwan in recent
years.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
Kuomintang initiated a legislative inquiry into the Kinmen capsizing
incident to determine the liability of Taiwan’s Coast Guard
Administration. This supports the efforts of the Chinese Communist Party
to vilify and undermine domestic Taiwanese support for the Democratic
Progressive Party. </strong>KMT-aligned independent legislator May Chin
convened the Legislative Yuan’s Internal Affairs Committee on March 4,
summoning Coast Guard and government officials to testify regarding the
law enforcement process and subsequent handling of the incident. Chin
favors closer relations with the PRC and has a history of meeting with
CPP officials, prompting accusations from DPP members that she is under
the CCP’s influence.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span>
Ocean Affairs Council Minister and DPP member Kuan Bi-ling and CGA
Director General Chou Mei-wu faced fierce questioning from Chin and KMT
lawmakers about the cause of the incident and the liability of the CGA.
Kuan and Chou pushed back against the notion that the CGA vessel’s
collision with the mainland fishing boat caused it to capsize. Kuan and
other DPP cabinet members stood by the Coast Guard’s actions as lawful
and denied insinuations of guilt. DPP legislators disagreed with the
KMT’s framing of the incident in a report, claiming it lent itself to
the TAO’s position.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span>
Kuan refuted allegations that she ordered the Coast Guard to open fire
or that she was a hindrance to the reconciliation process. Kuan
characterized the rumors as a cognitive warfare strategy by the CCP and
emphasized the role of misinformation in shaping public perception of
sensitive cross-strait issues.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
KMT and CCP are urging the DPP to disclose the truth about the
incident. The PRC blames the DPP and CGA for the deaths and failure of
the reconciliation process.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span>
The PRC has responded by repeatedly deploying CCG patrols into waters
around Kinmen and Matsu, two Taiwan-controlled island groups that are
close to the coast of the PRC.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>China</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
National People’s Congress announced a 5% GDP growth target and a 7.2%
defense budget increase for 2024. PRC defense spending has outpaced the
GDP growth target for over a decade.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span></strong> Both figures are identical to growth targets announced at the 2023 National People’s Congress session.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span>
Premier Li Qiang’s work report to the annual session of the NPC focused
primarily on the PRC’s economic goals, including maintaining target
growth rates, developing “new productive forces” to drive the economy,
and furthering “reform and opening up” policies. Li said the economy was
improving with a growth rate of 5.2% in 2023 but acknowledged that
achieving the economic growth goals would not be easy.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span>
The spokesperson for the Chinese People’s Political Consultative
Conference (CPPCC), the PRC’s top advisory body which is having its
annual session concurrently with the NPC, also signaled that the CPPCC
was chiefly concerned about the economy.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
PRC has the world’s second-largest defense budget after the United
States and the budget is set to increase to 1.67 trillion yuan ($232
billion) in 2024. Although PRC defense spending has doubled since 2015,
annual increases in defense spending have declined to single-digit
percentages as economic growth has slowed. Official spending increases
in defense have hovered around 7% each year since 2016.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span>
The US Department of Defense estimated in 2021 that the PRC’s true
spending on defense could be 1.1 to 2 times its official budget.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span>
The PRC can likely sustain its military spending despite slowing
economic growth, however. The state exerts considerable control over the
country’s economy and the distribution of resources to various sectors.
The PRC’s official defense spending is also much smaller than US
defense spending as a percentage of GDP, equaling 1.6% of GDP in 2022
compared to 3.5% for the United States.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>PRC
Premier Li Qiang’s work report to the National People’s Congress
continued a trend of CCP officials using more belligerent language about
“reunification” with Taiwan but did not signal a major policy change. </strong>Li
stressed that the CCP must “resolutely oppose ‘Taiwan independence’
separatism and external interference.” Li’s predecessor Li Keqiang said
in the 2023 work report that the CCP should “advance the process of the
peaceful reunification of the motherland,” but Li Qiang dropped the word
“peaceful” and called on the CCP to “unswervingly advance the great
cause of the reunification of the motherland.” Li Qiang did say the CCP
should promote the “peaceful development” of cross-strait relations,
however.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> State-owned media <em>Global Times</em>
cited PRC scholars who said that the omission of the term “peaceful
reunification” does not signal that the CCP has dropped this goal but
rather signals that it considers fighting Taiwanese “secessionism” will
be a more urgent task in 2024.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span>
The change in the language of the report is consistent with the change
of tone in CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning’s speech at the Taiwan Work
Conference on February 23, which emphasized the need to “fight” (rather
than merely “oppose”) Taiwanese independence and foreign interference.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
premier’s government work report to the NPC also omitted the term
“peaceful reunification” in 2016 and 2020, the years that ROC President
Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential elections. That the report again
dropped the term after the DPP won the 2024 presidential elections
indicates that the change in rhetoric signals disapproval of the DPP
presidency.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>CCP
Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairmen Zhang Youxia and He
Weidong highlighted the need to improve the military’s preparation for
“major missions” at the annual National People’s Congress. </strong>Zhang
and He participated in deliberations by the People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) and People’s Armed Police (PAP) delegations as they reviewed the
government work report at the NPC. Zhang highlighted the need to
implement the CMC Chairman responsibility system, step up troop
training, strengthen coordination of preparations for “major missions”,
accelerate construction and implementation of network-enabled
information systems, integrate military and civilian resources, and
improve the military's “ability to win.” He Weidong stressed the need to
strengthen training in CCP theory in the military and deepen political
“rectification” and anti-corruption efforts.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span>
Zhang and He’s recommendations provide insight into the PLA’s
priorities in improving its readiness for “major missions” such as
operations against Taiwan. These priorities include strengthening
centralized CCP control over the military, strengthening personnel
training and political loyalty, deepening military-civil fusion, and
constructing information systems to facilitate joint operations in
“informationized” warfare.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Russia</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Recent
PRC diplomatic outreach in Europe may aim to advance the PRC’s
September 2023 Proposal on the Reform and Development of Global
Governance, which faults the West for the war in Ukraine. </strong>The
proposal calls the root of the “Ukraine crisis” lying “in the problem of
security governance in Europe.” The “parties concerned… [must]
accommodate each other’s legitimate concerns… [and] abandon the Cold War
mentality.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span>
These are thinly veiled references to accommodating Russian historical
grievances at the price of NATO unity and Ukrainian territorial
sovereignty. The alleged “stabilizing force” of any PRC-negotiated
ceasefire along these lines would normalize the principle of revisionist
international aggression. This principle would provide the CCP with a
precedent for the party to falsely justify aggressive coercion aimed at
Taiwan, with the eventual political objective of annexing Taiwan into
the PRC.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">PRC Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs
Li Hui traveled to Europe on March 2 for a round of visits to Russia,
the EU, Poland, Ukraine, Germany, and France. PRC MFA Spokeswoman Mao
Ning claimed that Li Hui would “pave the way for peace talks.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span>
Li’s comments align with Kremlin talking points, however. The South
China Morning Post reported on March 6 that PRC Special Representative
for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui reiterated the Kremlin talking point that
the discussion of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty could only occur
when violence ceases. He also implied that the EU needs to stop sending
weapons to Ukraine for this to happen.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span><em> </em>Li’s
claims align with PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s message at the Munich
Security Conference in mid-February that the PRC is a “responsible major
country” that would serve as a “stabilizing force” amid global turmoil.
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span>
Wang also repeated his claim on March 7 that the PRC “supports the
timely convening of an international peace conference” during a press
conference at the annual Two Sessions meeting.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> CCP leadership delivers policy guidance for the upcoming year to the party cadre at this annual meeting.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
PRC and Russia are collaborating on the development of surveillance and
energy-related space capabilities that threaten US access to space and
space-based capabilities. </strong>The China National Space
Administration (CNSA) stated in late February that the PRC plans to
construct a surveillance system around the in-progress International
Lunar Research Station. The surveillance system will use the Skynet mass
surveillance system as a model.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span> Skynet is the PRC’s nationwide camera surveillance system that includes over 600 million cameras.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span>
The ILRS is a multinational space station initiative that Russia and
the PRC founded in 2021 that is scheduled for competition by the 2030s.
CNSA did not specify how it would prioritize surveillance efforts in
space. The head of Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov also
stated on March 5 that the PRC and Russia are considering cooperation to
build a nuclear power plant on the moon in the early 2030s.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> This is a competing initiative to an ongoing NASA project to design a nuclear fission reactor on the moon.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Commander
of United States Space Command General Stephen N. Whiting stated that
these types of space-based systems compete with US interests during his
February 29 testimony to the United States Senate Committee on Armed
Services. He warned that the PRC “and the Russian Federation continued
to field systems and engage in behavior that threaten U.S., Allied, and
Partner access to space and space-based capabilities.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Southeast Asia</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Chinese
Coast Guard (CCG) ships fired water cannons and collided with
Philippine ships while attempting to block a Philippine resupply mission
to Second Thomas Shoal. </strong>A CCG vessel attempted to block and
collided with a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel escorting a supply
mission to Second Thomas Shoal on March 5, causing minor damage to the
Philippine ship.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span>
PCG spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela
said that the CCG and Chinese Maritime Militia ships attempted
“dangerous” blocking maneuvers against PCG vessels in an “unprovoked
[act] of coercion.”<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span>
Two CCG ships also fired water cannons at a Philippine supply ship,
injuring four Philippine personnel, and later collided with it. The
supply ship returned to the Philippines under PCG escort. Another
Philippine ship completed its mission of delivering supplies to
personnel on the BRP <em>Sierra Madre</em>, a deliberately grounded derelict warship that serves as the Philippine base on Second Thomas Shoal.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> The MFA claimed the Philippine supply mission was transporting construction materials.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
CCG claimed that it took “control measures in accordance with the law”
to stop the Philippines’ “illegal intrusion” and that a Philippine ship
“deliberately rammed” a CCG ship.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> A PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson accused the Philippines of violating its commitments to China to tow the <em>Sierra Madre</em>
and violating the PRC’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights by
“infringing, provoking and causing trouble” in the waters of Second
Thomas Shoal, which the PRC calls “Ren’ai Reef” and the Philippines
calls “Ayungin Shoal.”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Second Thomas Shoal is a submerged
reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea which the Philippines
and the PRC both claim. The Philippines controls the shoal with troops
based on the grounded warship BRP <em>Sierra Madre</em>. It maintains
its presence at the shoal with regular shipments of living supplies for
its personnel and construction materials for repairing the World War
II-era warship, which is in poor condition. The Philippines began
“superficial repairs” on the ship in October 2023 to make it more
livable for the roughly dozen Philippine military personnel stationed
there.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
PRC opposes these shipments and claims the Philippine military presence
is illegal. The PRC claims sovereignty over nearly the entirety of the
South China Sea including the Spratly Islands through its “Nine Dash
Line” maritime boundary. It rejects a 2016 Permanent Court of
Arbitration ruling that found the Nine Dash Line claims are unlawful.
The PRC has constructed, seized, and attempted to seize many islands in
the South China Sea so it can build a military presence throughout the
critical waterway. The PRC has built military infrastructure on islands
that it has seized control of or artificially constructed to expand its
power projection capability, strengthen domain awareness, and increase
its ability to block critical Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) through
the South China Sea. Developing the capability to monitor or restrict
ships through the South China Sea would support a future PRC effort to
implement a blockade of Taiwan or block US and allied reinforcements
from reaching the Taiwan Strait in wartime.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The
PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs objected to the Philippines’ passage of
the “Maritime Zones Act” that codifies Philippine territorial claims in
the South China Sea. The act is based on the 2016 Arbitration ruling,
which found the PRC’s competing territorial claims in the region to be
invalid. </strong>The Philippine Senate passed the Maritime Zones Act on
February 26. The act establishes the Philippines’ archipelagic
boundaries, internal waters, and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in
accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the
2016 Arbitral Ruling.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span>
The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration found that the
PRC’s “Nine Dash Line” territorial claims to nearly the entire South
China Sea, including many Philippine-claimed features, had no legal
basis.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span>
A PRC MFA spokesperson said on March 5 that the PRC “firmly opposes”
the law. She reiterated the PRC stance that the PRC has sovereignty over
many islands the Philippines claims, including the Spratly Islands and
Scarborough Shoal. She also asserted that the treaties originally
delineating Philippine territory did not include these islands, that the
Philippines illegally occupied PRC territory in the South China Sea,
and that the 2016 arbitration ruling is illegal under UNCLOS.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The
PRC’s use of legal arguments in tandem with maritime operations to
assert territorial claims over most of the South China Sea serves to lay
the groundwork for PRC military control over the South China Sea. PRC
control over the sea could enable it to establish domain awareness or
block passage through the waterway to support a blockade or military
operations against Taiwan. The legal arguments about UNCLOS and the
territorial boundaries of rival claimants are part of a CCP effort to
legitimize PLA and CCG actions in the South China Sea. “Legal warfare”
is one of the PLA’s “three warfares” strategies of non-kinetic warfare,
which also include psychological and public opinion warfare.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Oceania</span></div><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Compacts of Free Association</em></div><em><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></em><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The House of Representatives voted to renew the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) on March 6.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span></strong> The bill is now before the Senate for consideration.<strong> </strong>The
COFAs govern the United States’ relationship with Palau, Micronesia,
and the Marshall Islands while granting the United States military
access throughout their territories. The United States renewed COFAs
with Palau and Micronesia in May and the Marshall Islands in October.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> Congress previously funded the COFAs for a twenty-year period in 2003.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span>
That funding has now expired. The renewal of the COFAs in 2024 would
replenish this funding at a total cost for all three of the twenty-year
agreements of roughly $7 billion spread over the period 2024 to 2043,
according to the Congressional Research Service.<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Countries_with_Compacts_of_Free_Association_with_the_United_States_7.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Countries_with_Compacts_of_Free_Association_with_the_United_States_7.png"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Countries_with_Compacts_of_Free_Association_with_the_United_States_7.png" height="425" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Countries_with_Compacts_of_Free_Association_with_the_United_States_7.png" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"> <a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_81.jpg" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_81.jpg"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_81.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_4_81.jpg" width="500" /></a><br data-mce-bogus="1" /></p><div><hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[1]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.cga</span> dot gov.tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=159806&ctNode=10198&mp=999</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[2]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://ocean.moi</span>
dot
gov.tw/Map/Achievement/LayerInfo/905#:~:text=%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E3%80%81%E6%BE%8E%E6%B9%96%E3%80%81%E7%B6%A0%E5%B3%B6,%E5%8A%83%E6%B3%95%E5%8A%83%E8%A8%AD%E4%B9%8B%E3%80%82</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[3]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.chinatimes</span> dot com/realtimenews/20240305002460-260407?chdtv</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[4]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.cga</span> dot gov.tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=159806&ctNode=10198&mp=999</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[5]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.chinatimes</span> dot com/realtimenews/20240304002208-260409</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[6]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://www.gwytb</span> dot gov.cn/m/speech/202402/t20240228_12602525.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[7]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.chinatimes</span> dot com/realtimenews/20240301000005-260407</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[8]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mnd</span> dot gov.tw/Publish.aspx?p=82668&title=%e5%9c%8b%e9%98%b2%e6%b6%88%e6%81%af&SelectStyle=%e6%96%b0%e8%81%9e%e7%a8%bf</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[9]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.cna</span> dot com.tw/news/aipl/202403060141.aspx</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[10]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.setn</span> dot com/News.aspx?NewsID=1265258</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.setn</span> dot com/News.aspx?NewsID=1265464</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://news.ltn</span> dot com.tw/news/focus/paper/328956</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://www.xinhuanet</span> dot com/politics/leaders/2019-06/29/c_1124688531.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[11]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://news.ltn</span> dot com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4594723</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[12]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://udn</span> dot com/news/story/9213/7808428</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[13]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://www.gwytb</span> dot gov.cn/m/speech/202402/t20240228_12602525.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[14]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/outlook-and-commentary/china-equity-outlook-2024</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[15]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/04/economy/china-two-sessions-gdp-growth-target-military-spending-intl-hnk/index.html</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[16]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.gov</span> dot cn/yaowen/liebiao/202403/content_6936260.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[17]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.scmp</span> dot com/news/china/politics/article/3254011/two-sessions-2024-economy-set-lead-agenda-chinas-top-political-advisory-body</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[18]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[19]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[20]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?most_recent_year_desc=true</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[21]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.gov</span> dot cn/yaowen/liebiao/202403/content_6936260.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[22]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.globaltimes</span> dot cn/page/202403/1308237.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[23]</span> http://www.news dot cn/politics/leaders/20240223/5bff376d7b5e4b03bec2fbfc4417967c/c.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;">http://cpc.people dot com.cn/n1/2023/0510/c64094-32683120.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[24]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://english.www.gov</span> dot cn/premier/news/2016/03/17/content_281475309417987.htm</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://english.www.gov</span> dot cn/premier/news/202005/30/content_WS5ed197f3c6d0b3f0e94990da.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[25]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">http://www.news</span> dot cn/politics/20240305/e24c2abd5a4648319f771221e164273f/c.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[26]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.fmprc</span> dot gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202309/t20230913_11142010.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[27]</span> https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202402/t20240229_11252087.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/wsrc_674883/202402/t20240228_11251245.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[28]</span> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3254311/eu-locks-horns-chinas-envoy-ukraine-schisms-war-remain</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[29]</span> https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjbz_673089/xghd_673097/202402/t20240217_11246040.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[30]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mfa</span> dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202403/t20240307_11255225.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[31]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.scmp</span>
dot
com/news/china/science/article/3254054/skynet-20-china-plans-bring-largest-surveillance-camera-network-earth-moon-protect-lunar-assets</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[32]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.scmp</span>
dot
com/news/china/science/article/3254054/skynet-20-china-plans-bring-largest-surveillance-camera-network-earth-moon-protect-lunar-assets</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[33]</span> https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/russia-china-are-considering-putting-nuclear-power-unit-moon-ria-2024-03-05/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[34]</span> https://www.space.com/nasa-moon-nuclear-reactor-project-first-phase-complete</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[35]</span> https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/whiting_statement.pdf, p.5</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[36]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.gmanetwork</span> dot com/news/topstories/nation/899475/pcg-china-actions-led-to-collision-during-latest-ayungin-resupply-mission/story/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[37]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://twitter.com/jaytaryela/status/1764902394381643825</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[38]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.gmanetwork</span>
dot
com/news/topstories/nation/899501/4-hurt-after-china-vessels-water-cannoned-ph-resupply-boat-gov-t-task-force/story/?just_in</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[39]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mfa</span> dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202403/t20240305_11254023.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[40]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.ccg</span> dot gov.cn//2024/hjyw_0305/2429.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.globaltimes</span> dot cn/page/202403/1308238.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[41]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://manilastandard</span> dot net/news/314381977/repairs-on-brp-sierra-madre-start.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[42]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.pna</span> dot gov.ph/articles/1219564</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://legacy.senate</span> dot gov.ph/press_release/2024/0226_tolentino1.asp</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[43]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Issue%20Brief_South%20China%20Sea%20Arbitration%20Ruling%20What%20Happened%20and%20What%27s%20Next071216.pdf</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[44]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://www.mfa</span> dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202403/t20240305_11254023.shtml</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[45]</span> <span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20240304/HMS31169.PDF</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://www.voanews.com/a/bill-to-fund-us-government-includes-money-to-counter-china-in-pacific/7512521.html</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[46]</span>
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinken-witnesses-the-signing-of-the-u-s-palau-2023-agreement-following-the-compact-of-free-association-section-432-review/</p><p style="text-align: justify;">https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-signs-agreement-continue-micronesia-assistance-under-strategic-pact-2023-05-23/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[47]</span> https://www.reuters.com/world/us-negotiator-expects-sign-new-deal-with-strategic-marshall-islands-monday-2023-10-16/</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[48]</span> https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12194#:~:text=In%202003%2C%20the%20United%20States,years%20(FY2004%2DFY2023).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration-line: underline;">[49]</span> https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12194#:~:text=In%202003%2C%20the%20United%20States,years%20(FY2004%2DFY2023).</p></div>Institute for the Study of Warhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02246162429105229906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-4503208350043002782024-03-07T21:19:00.001-05:002024-03-08T16:52:18.821-05:00Iran Update, March 7, 2024<p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Ahmad Omid Arman, and Nicholas Carl</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our </em><a data-mce-href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/661fd12b23f442b781be64cf323ef573/?draft=true" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">interactive map of Iran and the Middle East</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. </em><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </em><a data-mce-href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" href="https://isw.pub/IsraelBattleMap" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</em></a><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Western media reported on March 7 that the United States will establish a temporary port in the Gaza Strip to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>US President Joe Biden is expected to announce the project during his State of the Union address on March 7. White House officials disclosed that the United States plans to build a temporary port off the coast of the Gaza Strip before moving the structure closer to shore. Western reporting noted that the project would require up to thousands of US service members stationed off the Mediterranean coast. Palestinian militias have previously condemned US humanitarian efforts in the Gaza Strip as insufficient and creating chaos.[2] CTP-ISW will follow up with additional details on the proposed temporary port in future updates.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian military and security leaders are increasingly discussing the need to expand the Iranian military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. </strong>Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi—a senior military adviser to the Iranian supreme leader—stated on March 6 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy and Aerospace Force should “focus” on the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea.[3] Safavi described the Mediterranean Sea as part of Iran’s strategic depth and that Tehran must accordingly “increase [its] strategic depth [by] 5,000 kilometers,” which would extend to the Strait of Gibraltar.[4] Safavi’s remarks come after IRGC Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi threatened in December 2023 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” could someday disrupt maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea and around the Strait of Gibraltar.[5] The Iranian desire to develop a military presence, especially a naval one, around the Mediterranean Sea and its periphery is not entirely new, as senior military officials have discussed the idea since at least 2016.[6]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The remarks from Safavi and Naghdi are noteworthy, nevertheless, given recent Iranian efforts in the area. Western media reported on March 3 that Iran requested Sudanese permission to establish a permanent naval base on the Red Sea, which would support Iranian out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping.[7] Separately, Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike that killed an IRGC Navy colonel around the coastal city of Baniyas, Syria, on March 1.[8] An Israeli social media account observed that the naval officer may have worked on coastal missile defenses and/or electronic warfare.[9]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran would probably use an expanding military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea to threaten commercial traffic, as Iran has long done so around the Persian Gulf and is currently supporting Houthi attacks on global commerce. Iran has invested in recent years in building surface vessels that are capable of hosting fast attack craft, drones, helicopters, and missiles. These vessels would not likely survive conventional engagements against the US Navy or other modern militaries—but they are optimized for the sort of commerce raiding that has long been a feature of Iranian regional strategy.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—appears to have refocused its attacks to target primarily Israel rather than US forces for the moment. </strong>The group has claimed four attacks targeting Israel in the first week of March, compared to three attacks targeting Israel in the month of February.[10] The group has contrastingly not claimed any attacks targeting US forces since February 4.[11] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq described its three most recent attacks as part of the “second phase of operations to . . . support our people in Gaza.”[12] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders have praised the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attack targeting Kiryat Shmona Airport on March 6 as the beginning of this second phase, which involves targeting Israeli airports and ports.[13] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released a statement on March 6 stating that it means to expel US forces from Iraq and support Palestinian militias by continuing attacks targeting Israel until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[14]</p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed three drone attacks targeting industrial and military locations inside Israel on March 5–7.[15] The IDF reported on March 4 that it intercepted a drone entering from Syria.[16] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed three attacks in February 2023 targeting unspecified Israeli targets near Eilat, the Golan Heights, and the Dead Sea.[17]</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai called for a second phase of attacks targeting Israel on January 23.[18] Walai specifically called for targeting Israel’s ports. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed on March 3 that the group launched drones targeting the Haifa port.[19] Israeli journalists reported that the IDF intercepted a drone near Haifa on February 29.[20]</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed on March 7 that it launched drones targeting an IDF military airport near Safed, Israel.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[21]</strong> The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) separately claimed on March 7 that it intercepted a drone that resembles drones previously launched by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[22] A Syrian social media account stated that the intercepted drone was an Iranian-made Shahed-101 and speculated that the SAA could have intercepted the drone by mistake.[23]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</span></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip: </strong>Western media reported that the United States will establish a temporary port in the Gaza Strip to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran: </strong>Iranian military and security leaders are increasingly discussing the need to expand the Iranian military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: </strong>The Islamic Resistance in Iraq appears to have refocused its attacks to target primarily Israel rather than US forces for the moment.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank: </strong>Unidentified Palestinian fighters detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targeting Israeli forces around Tubas.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq: </strong>Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said that the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias must refrain attacking US forces so that Baghdad can negotiate a timeline for the US withdrawal.</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yemen: </strong>Houthi-affiliated media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted two airstrikes targeting Hudaydah.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%207%2C2024%20%282%29.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%207%2C2024%20%282%29.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%207%2C2024%20%282%29.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftIsraelCOTMarch%207%2C2024%20%282%29.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Gaza Strip</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias continued to claim attacks on Israeli forces in the Zaytoun area of southern Gaza City on March 7.</strong> Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targeted Israeli armor operating in Zaytoun with an improvised explosive device (IED).[24] PIJ also mortared Israeli infantry on Road 10 in southern Zaytoun.[25]The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) concluded a two-week-long operation in Zaytoun on March 2 to re-clear Palestinian fighters there.[26] Palestinian militia attacks may be targeting semi-permanent Israeli checkpoints in southern Gaza City or Israeli forces building an east-west road in between Gaza City and the central Gaza Strip rather than forces actively clearing the northern Gaza Strip.[27] Ongoing Palestinian attacks in the area suggest that Israeli forces did not fully clear Zaytoun and that Palestinian militias in southern Gaza City retain some capacity to fight.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) killed at least 10 Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip on March 7.[28] The brigade directed an airstrike on a squad loading military equipment and ammunition on a vehicle near Israeli forces.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis on March 7.</strong> The IDF Maglan and Egoz units (89th Commando Brigade) and the IDF Navy Shayetet unit conducted “secret and precise” raids in Hamad. The Commando forces clashed with and detained Palestinian fighters in high-rise towers in Hamad. The IDF 7th Brigade (36th Division) raided militia infrastructure in Hamad, including Hamas offices, tunnel shafts, and a weapons factory.[29] The IDF Bislamach Brigade killed six Palestinian fighters entering a building known to house Hamas infrastructure in Qarara.[30]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Hamad, northwestern Khan Younis. Three militias conducted ambushes with explosive devices targeting Israeli armor and dismounted infantry operating in Hamad.[31] Hamas detonated a building rigged with anti-personnel IEDs targeting over 20 Israeli soldiers on March 6.[32] PIJ claimed a nearly identical attack on March 7.[33] Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine targeted Israeli armor with an IED in Hamad on March 7.[34] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, claimed two additional clashes with Israeli forces in Hamad.[35]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Clearing%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%207%2C2024%20%281%29.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%207%2C2024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%207%2C2024%20%281%29.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Gaza%20Evacuation%20Zone%20Map%20March%207%2C2024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cairo-based ceasefire talks concluded on March 7 without an agreement. </strong>A senior Hamas official stated that Israel rejected on March 7 Hamas’ ceasefire counterproposal, which required a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, a permanent ceasefire, and the return of displaced Gazans without restrictions.[36] Hamas confirmed its delegation left Cairo on March 7.[37] Unspecified senior Biden administration officials blamed Hamas for holding up a proposed six-week ceasefire deal by refusing to release the ”vulnerable“ category of hostages whom it holds in the Gaza Strip.[38] This breakdown in talks indicates that a deal is unlikely to be reached before the March 10 deadline that high-level Israeli officials set to reach a deal before conducting an offensive into Rafah.[39] Israeli officials have signaled since February 18 that the IDF may delay its operation into Rafah to evacuate the displaced civilians currently sheltering there.[40] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed on March 7 his intent to expand Israeli operations into Rafah.[41]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">PIJ fired a rocket barrage from the Gaza Strip targeting Nahal Oz on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[42]</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Southern%20Israel%20Battlemap%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">West Bank</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on March 6.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[43]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The IDF detained 29 wanted individuals in the West Bank overnight.[44]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unidentified Palestinian fighters detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting Israeli forces around Tubas on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[45]</strong> This event marks the second VBIED attack that CTP-ISW has recorded in the West Bank since the Israel-Hamas war. Palestinian media posted footage on January 5 showing a VBIED detonate in Nour Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm.[46] These attacks suggest the presence of a VBEID factory in the northern West Bank.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20Bank%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[47]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Hezbollah conducted at least two attacks targeting IDF bases in the Golan Heights.[48] Israeli media reported that Hezbollah is using its indirect fire attacks to test Israeli air defenses and identify the location of Iron Dome batteries.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Hezbollah separately claimed that it conducted two attacks targeting towns in northern Israel in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon.[50] The IDF targeted Hezbollah observation posts and unspecified military infrastructure near the Israel-Lebanon border on March 6.[51]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" height="625" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Northern%20Israel%20Battle%20Map%20March%207%2C2024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Iran and Axis of Resistance</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said that the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias must refrain from renewing their attack campaign against US forces in Iraq so that the Iraqi federal government can negotiate a timeline for the US withdrawal.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[52]</strong> Neither the Islamic Resistance in Iraq nor any Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have claimed any attacks targeting US forces in Iraq since February 4.[53] The United States and Iraq have held a series of ”working group” meetings since January 2024 to discuss the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq as well as to present an assessment of the capabilities of Iraqi Security Forces and of the threat posed by ISIS.[54] These meetings are a precursor to<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>negotiations that Baghdad seeks to use to transition from a multilateral security relationship between Iraq and the International Coalition to unspecified bilateral relationships between Iraq and individual coalition member countries.[55]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)-controlled Muhandis General Company signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Chinese National Machinery Industry (SINOMACH) on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[56]</strong> The MOU encompasses reconstruction, engineering, trade services, and energy-related projects across multiple Iraqi provinces. SINOMACH is a Chinese state-owned company whose business activities encompass heavy machinery manufacturing, overseas infrastructure construction, and financial services. SINOMACH has been contracted by the Iraqi federal government for multiple construction projects for oil and gas facilities in Basra and Baghdad.[57]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Muhandis General Company was established in February 2023 and is nominally under the control of the PMF.[58] PMF Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh is the signatory of the Muhandis General Company’s articles of incorporation and was seen at a ceremony for the company with PMF Chief of Staff Abdul Aziz al Mohammadawi.[59] The Muhandis General Company is modeled after the IRGC’s parastatal organization Khatam ol Anbiya Construction headquarters, an engineering and development firm that oversees large-scale construction projects and helps Iran circumvent sanctions.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee member Yasser Iskandar claimed that Iraq must strengthen its air defense capabilities to eliminate vulnerabilities in Iraqi security.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[60]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Iskandar said that air defense capabilities are necessary to prevent violations of Iraqi airspace. He also claimed that the United States has prevented Iraq from developing air defense capabilities to retain its own freedom of movement.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Houthi-affiliated media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted two airstrikes targeting Hudaydah on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[61]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>US CENTCOM separately acknowledged airstrikes targeting two Houthi unmanned aerial vehicles inside Houthi-controlled Yemen on March 6.[62]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" height="636" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Houthi%20CoT%20in%20Yemen%20March%207%2C%202024%20%281%29.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah on March 5.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[63]</strong> Abdollahian called on Muslim<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>countries to pressure Israel and the United States to end the Israel-Hamas war. Abdollahian blamed the United States for prolonging the war by vetoing resolution calling for a ceasefire on the UN Security Council.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan continued his official visit to Tehran to discuss regional security cooperation on March 7.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[64]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Papikyan met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi after having previously met with Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani on March 6.[65] Raisi reiterated his criticism regarding alleged extra-regional interference in the Caucasus, referring to the long-held Iranian assertion that Israel and Turkey are expanding their geopolitical influence there via Azerbaijan.[66] The Iranian regime has historically accused Baku of allowing Israel to use Azerbaijani territory to launch operations against Iran.[67] Iran has provided security assistance, including drone sales, to Armenia previously as part of its effort to contain Azerbaijan.[68] Papikyan may have been further discussing increased cooperation with Iranian officials on March 6 and 7.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_57.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_57.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/07/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news?smid=url-share ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68506356</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13890</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/16/3050867</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/16/3050867</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] http://www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/639761</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/ ; https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/ 13950906000126</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tried-to-persuade-sudan-to-allow-naval-base-on-its-red-sea-coast-77ca3922?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/12/11/3047940/ ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1763545234586128626;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.irna dot ir/news/85404199; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-1-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://x.com/IntelliTimes/status/1763995739871482209?s=20</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/969 ;https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/957 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/961 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/963</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/954</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/969</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://twitter.com/aboalaa_alwalae/status/1765453433144799678 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-26-2024 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/977</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/973 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/969</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1764874524355432735 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1764872430571368606</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/957 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/961 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/963</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-26-2024 ; https://twitter.com/aboalaa_alwalae/status/1749918306973143402</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/966</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1763149681482199258</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/979</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0CGHYVnqmcM94HkYzAzLXYUex8kuij5VsLNsRKNg8PirzNC1vvajLTTac5EJhXbKkl ; https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1765709664212091147 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/975</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1765709664212091147</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://t.me/sarayaps/17543 ;</p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(190, 191, 185); cursor: default; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 0.923em; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline; width: 1284px;"><tbody style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: rgb(190, 191, 185); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 0px 0px; cursor: text; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 8px 10px; vertical-align: middle;" width="193"><p style="border: 0px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">https://t.me/sarayaps/17545</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://t.me/sarayaps/17543</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-killed-over-100-hamas-gunmen-in-2-week-operation-in-gaza-citys-zeitoun/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1762434462996987975</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635739147018635 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635740547928277 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635742015930821</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635700978758026 https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1765636822724473273</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635736731095455</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765635739147018635</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1729 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17546 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4157</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1729</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://t.me/sarayaps/17546</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4157</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5946 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5947</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/7/gaza-ceasefire-talks-end-in-cairo-with-no-substantial-answer-or-solution</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50640</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/us-says-hamas-holding-up-6-week-ceasefire-by-refusing-to-release-vulnerable-hostages/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gantz-no-peace-via-one-sided-moves-rafah-invasion-by-ramadan-if-hostages-not-home/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://www.axios.com/2024/02/20/biden-israel-egypt-netanyahu-rafah-gaza-hostages</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1765774062628880521 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1765742934010319290</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://t.me/sarayaps/17547 ; https://www dot tzevaadom.co.il/en/alerts/2252</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4956 ; https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4958 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5945 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5945 ; https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4961 ; https://t.me/mihwar_almuqawama/49603</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765685896412541076</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4961</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://t.me/QudsN/353989</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/mmirleb/2469 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2471 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2473 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46922 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46924 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46927 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46929</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://t.me/mmirleb/2471 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46922</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1765727266674274580</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://t.me/C_Military1/46924 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2473</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1765736199031841163</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://alghadeertv dot iq/archives/263525</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/954</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://apnews.com/article/iraq-us-talks-to-end-coalition-mission-f782db4c6550ab31ef02ef3c1793ee7b</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-25-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://al-hashed.gov dot iq/?p=520254</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://www.sinomach dot com.cn/en/MediaCenter/News/202303/t20230329_414488.html ; https://www.sinomach dot com.cn/en/MediaCenter/News/202209/t20220920_408160.html ; https://energycentral dot com/news/sinomach-camce-takes-al-doura-power-plant-project-iraq</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/certificate-incorporation-muhandis-general-company</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://www.newarab dot com/news/muhandis-company-plant-one-million-trees-samawa-desert</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://baghdadtoday dot news/244288-البرلمان-يتحدث-عن-استراتيجية-الدفاع-الجوي-في-العراق.-ماذا-عن-الفيتو-الأمريكي؟.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://t.me/C_Military1/46912 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/46918 ; https://english dot almasirah dot net dot ye/news/18198/US-UK-aggression-targeted-Salif-district-in-Hodeidah-by-two-airstrikes</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3698914/march-6-red-sea-update/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://en.mfa dot ir/portal/newsview/740988</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[64] https://president dot ir/fa/150520; https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/212748/Iran-Armenia-defense-ministers-discuss-regional-security; https://www.isna dot ir/news/1402121612126/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[65] https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/212748/Iran-Armenia-defense-ministers-discuss-regional-security; https://www.isna dot ir/news/1402121612126/; https://president dot ir/fa/150520</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[66] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/04/2951633 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/03/2951466 ; https://www.irna dot ir/news/85219411 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/09/04/2951654</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[67] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-april-14-2023; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-30-2023-6569315598267</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[68] https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/analysis-opinion/1694275613-iran-behind-latest-escalation-between-armenia-azerbaijan ; : https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2022/10/30/iran-may-hope-to-replicate-turkeys-success-exporting-drones-heres-why-it-cant/?sh=37e6a048db64 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-11-2023#_edn5b9c6838d526c0faac3525bf8b80cbee17</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3450850736617063386.post-58140721607316191822024-03-07T20:16:00.003-05:002024-03-07T20:16:31.724-05:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2024<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, and George Barros</strong></p><p data-mce-style="text-align: left;" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">March 7, 2024, 6:25pm ET</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Click </strong><a data-mce-href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:00pm ET on March 7. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.</strong> </p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[1]</strong> Lithuanian intelligence published its 2024 national threat assessment on March 7 wherein it assessed that Russia has the manpower, material, and financial resources to sustain its war effort in Ukraine in the near term. Lithuanian intelligence noted that Russia reconstituted and increased its deployed manpower in Ukraine in 2023 despite suffering heavy losses but continues to prioritize quantity of manpower and materiel over quality of forces. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has become a driving force within the Russian economy at the expense of other economic sectors and that Russia had allocated at least 10.8 trillion rubles (about $119 billion) to military spending in 2023. The Lithuanian intelligence assessment stated that Russia’s economy is doing better than expected due to high oil prices and Russia’s ability to offset Western sanctions. Lithuanian intelligence caveated that short-term factors are driving Russia’s economic growth and that Russian structural problems, which impose limits on Russia’s short-term capacity, are only likely to deepen in the long term. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that the Kremlin views Russia’s upcoming March 2024 presidential election as a significant event to legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin and that Putin will be more likely to make unpopular decisions (potentially such as mobilization) after the election, which could allow the Kremlin to address some potential constraints on its long-term war effort.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russia fails to achieve these objectives through military means. </strong>Lithuanian intelligence assessed that “Russia shows no intention of de-escalating" its war against Ukraine and that Russia is unlikely to abandon its operational objectives in the long-term, even if Russia suffers a military defeat in Ukraine.[2] Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia will continue to pursue its goal of completely undermining Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty, enforcing Ukraine’s neutral status, and destroying Ukraine’s military potential in the long term, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia will also continue efforts to expand the Russian state’s administrative control to the administrative borders of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts in the short term. Recent Russian official statements underscore that the Kremlin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine have remained unchanged since the beginning months of the full-scale invasion and likely will not change, despite Russian information operations that aim to persuade Western audiences and leaders that Russia has limited objectives in Ukraine to seduce the West to support negotiations that favor Russia.[3]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine. </strong>Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has allocated substantial resources to the war in Ukraine but maintains the means to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region.[4] Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia has deployed forces and assets from its western border areas to Ukraine and has thus had to increasingly rely on air and naval capabilities for security and deterrence purposes on NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia deployed Kalibr missile carrier ships on combat duty in Lake Ladoga near St. Petersburg for the first time in 2023, likely in response to Finland’s accession to NATO, and increased the number of Tu-22M3 heavy bomber flights over the Baltic Sea from none in 2022 to five in 2023. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) also recently assessed that the Russian military is forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and Moscow Military District (MMD) in part to posture against Finland and NATO.[5]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Military Thought</em> that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.[6]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sweden formally joined NATO on March 7, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance.</strong> The US State Department announced that Sweden fulfilled the conditions of NATO membership and formally entered the alliance.[7]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko in Russia on March 7 as Moldovan authorities announced that a criminal case against Gutsul will soon go to court. </strong>Gutsul met with Kiriyenko at the World Youth Festival in Sochi and reportedly discussed “the support that Russia can provide to Gagauzia” and the “political situation” in Moldova.[8] Gutsul asked Kiriyenko to help Gagauz people open Russian bank accounts “for social projects,” to lift the Russian embargo on imports from Gagauzia, and to help negotiate with Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom on the supply of gas to Gagauzia at a preferential price. Kiriyenko is reportedly in charge of multiple Kremlin committees that run information operations and hybrid operations against the West, including Moldova.[9] Moldovan Acting Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu stated on March 7 that Moldovan authorities have enough evidence to demonstrate Gutsul’s involvement in unspecified criminal acts, are finalizing a<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>criminal case against Gutsul and will soon take the criminal charges to court.[10] Moldovan authorities opened a criminal case against Gutsul for illegal financing and bribing voters during her electoral campaign in 2023.[11] Gutsul previously ran as a candidate of the now-outlawed Shor Party led by US-sanctioned pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician Ilan Shor.[12] Shor denied on March 7 that he illegally financed Moldovan political parties and claimed that Moldovan authorities will arrest Gutsul upon her return to Moldova.[13] Gutsul claimed on March 7 that she will return to Moldova soon and that she will “speak in detail at a briefing” in Chisinau on an unspecified date.[14] Gutsul met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on March 6 where Putin reportedly “promised to support Gagauzia and the Gagauz people in defending [their] legitimate rights, powers, and positions in the international arena.”[15] The Kremlin’s intensified focus on relations with Gagauzia after a recent rhetorical focus on Moldova’s other pro-Russian region, the breakaway republic of Transnistria, continues to indicate that the Kremlin hopes to use both these regions to justify hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing and further polarizing Moldova ahead of Moldova’s EU accession negotiations and the Moldovan presidential election later in 2024.[16]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Chinese calls for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on March 7; Russia will likely continue to use such calls to promote long-standing information operations aimed at prompting Western concessions.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[17]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>Wang stated that China maintains an objective and impartial position on the war in Ukraine, rhetoric that is part of China’s long-standing efforts to cast itself as an independent mediator in an envisioned aspirational negotiations process.[18] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hiu met in Moscow on March 2 to discuss China’s desire to facilitate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.[19] China has not publicly expounded upon the specifics of a vague 12-point peace plan that it released in early 2023, and Russian officials will likely continue to engage with Chinese calls for negotiations to promote Kremlin information operations about peace negotiations.[20] Galuzin and Li noted that it is “impossible” to discuss a settlement in Ukraine without Russia’s participation and without “taking into account [Russia’s] interests in the security sphere,” claims that the Kremlin routinely uses to place the onus for negotiations on the West.[21]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on March 7 that it neutralized an Islamic State (IS) terrorist cell that had been preparing an attack on synagogues in Moscow.</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[22]</strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </strong>The FSB stated that it neutralized the IS cell in Kaluga Oblast but did not specify its size.[23] The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the FSB conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation against alleged IS militants in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.[24] Russian law enforcement has routinely attributed terrorist activity in Russia, and specifically the north Caucasus, to the Islamic State when militants may be affiliated with IS or a different terrorist organization.[25]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Key Takeaways:</strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russian fails to achieve these objectives through military means.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sweden formally joined NATO on March 7, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko in Russia on March 7 as Moldovan authorities announced that a criminal case against Gutsul will soon go to court.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Chinese calls for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on March 7; Russia will likely continue to use such calls to promote long-standing information operations aimed at prompting Western concessions.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on March 7 that it neutralized an Islamic State (IS) terrorist cell that had been preparing an attack on synagogues in Moscow.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 7.</strong></li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian intelligence services likely continue to source and operate sanctioned precision machine tools and dual-use components to produce Russian military equipment.</strong></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="706" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOT%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.</em></strong></p><ul style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</li><li style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant Activity in Belarus</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently marginally advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid continued positional fighting on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 7. Geolocated footage published on March 7 shows that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the northern outskirts of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk).[26] Positional fighting continued southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[27] Elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People's Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) continue operating in the Bilohorivka area.[28]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="801" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Bakhmut area on March 7. Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian forces advanced near Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of recent Ukrainian advances in the area.[29] Positional fighting continued west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske; southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Bakhmut near Pivdenne and Niu York.[30] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating near Soledar (northeast of Bakhmut).[31]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="651" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting continued in the Avdiivka area on March 7. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked near Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and pushed Russian forces out of unspecified positions, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[32] Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near Tonenke and Orlivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[33] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that Russian forces are particularly focusing their offensive operations in the direction of Tonenke.[34] Elements of the Russian 25th and 30th motorized rifle brigades (both of the 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Stepove and Berdychi, elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) and the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly operating near Tonenke, and elements of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) and 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly operating between Tonenke and Vodyane (southwest of Avdiivka).[35]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="709" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/West%20of%20Avdiivka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting in the area on March 7. Geolocated footage published on March 6 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in southern Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City) and in southwestern Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[36] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced further along Pishchana Street in Heorhiivka and that Russian forces with armored vehicles support advanced up to the westernmost point in Novomykahilivka.[37] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) pushed Ukrainian forces from positions north of Novomykhailivka along the O05131 Marinka-Vuhledar highway. ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these Russian claims. The Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Press Service published footage on March 7 of Ukrainian forces repelling mechanized assaults near Novomykhailivka on March 6 and reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian armored vehicles in the area.[38] Positional fighting continued west of Donetsk City near Pobieda and Krasnohorivka on March 7.[39] Elements of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA, SMD) and 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Novomykhailivka, and elements of the 163rd Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD), the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (8th CAA, SMD), and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are reportedly operating southwest of Donetsk City along the Slavne-Novomykhailivka and Solodke-Vodyane lines.[40]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="771" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional fighting occurred near Vodyane (east of Velyka Novosilka) in western Donetsk Oblast on March 7.[41] Elements of the 36th CAA (EMD) are reportedly operating near Novoukrainka (east of Velyka Novosilka).[42]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="698" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Vremivka%20-%20Marinka%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 7, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).[43] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced up to one kilometer near Verbove, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems are complicating Russian forces’ usage of drones in the Zaporizhia direction.[45] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that Russian forces have increased their use of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) to transport infantry, especially over minefields, in the Zaporizhia direction.[46] Elements of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) and elements of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction; elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Robotyne; and elements of the 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Verbove.[47]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="639" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pryatykhatky%20and%20Robotyne%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="634" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Positional engagements continued in left (east) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky on March 7.[48] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the dacha area near the Antonivsky roadway bridge.[49]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-mce-href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; color: #0074bd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" height="737" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%207%2C%202024.png" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></a></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated on March 7 that Ukrainian forces shot down a Kh-59 missile over Poltava Oblast on the night of March 6-7.[50] Ukrainian officials stated on March 7 that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Sumy City with unspecified missiles and a Ukrainian State Emergency Service training ground in Kharkiv Oblast with drones.[51] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk stated on March 7 that Russian forces launched a Kh-31P anti-radar missile towards Odesa Oblast but that the missile malfunctioned before hitting its intended target.[52]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa stated on March 6 that Russian forces have launched 880 drones and 179 missiles at port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast since July 2023.[53]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian intelligence services likely continue to source and operate sanctioned precision machine tools and dual-use components to produce Russian military equipment. Lithuanian intelligence reported on March 7 that Russian intelligence services are importing such sanctioned goods and equipment into Russia.[54] Russian defense industrial base (DIB) companies reportedly provide Russian intelligence with “shopping lists” of Western equipment or components to acquire via sanctions loopholes or third-country intermediaries. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia will likely increase efforts to procure Western equipment as sanctions increasingly target Russia’s DIB. Russian opposition outlet<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Vazhnye Istorii</em> reported on March 7 that the sanctioned “Kurganmashzavod” enterprise, a subsidiary of Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, recently published footage showing its workers operating Japanese precision machinery to produce Russian infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, and other military equipment.[55] <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii</em> noted that Kurganmashzavod is the only enterprise in Russia that specializes in producing infantry fighting vehicles. <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vazhnye Istorii</em> also reported that Russian DIB enterprises purchased 360 million rubles’ ($3.97 million) worth of UK-produced machine tools, mainly from third party actors, in 2023.[56]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on March 7 that 38,529 Russian servicemen, including 16,430 Chechens, have trained at that Russian Spetsnaz University in Gudermes, Chechnya since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[57] Kadyrov also claimed that over 8,000 servicemen from Chechnya are currenting fighting in Ukraine.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Kadyrov also denied recent Western reporting that Chechen units are purchasing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on a “black market” to conduct their own POW exchange with Ukraine.[58] Kadyrov claimed that there are no “black markets” for exchanging POWs in Russia or Chechnya and called Western reporting on the issue a “fake story.”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Technological Adaptations</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Nothing significant to report.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing its coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts on a weekly basis in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track developments in Ukrainian defense industrial efforts daily and will refer to these efforts in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Activities in Russian-occupied areas</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW will be publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas twice a week in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. ISW will continue to track activities in Russian-occupied areas daily and will refer to these activities in assessments within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and other ISW products when necessary.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.</em></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian Information Operations and Narratives</span></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a longstanding Russian information operation denying Ukrainian identity and sovereignty.[59] Putin claimed on March 6 that the “spiritual reunification” of Russia and Ukraine will occur “sooner or later” and that Russia must eradicate “disgusting manifestations of nationalism” for this reunification to occur.[60] Putin’s statements are in line with boilerplate Kremlin rhetoric that rejects all notions of an independent Ukrainian national identity or state sovereignty independent of Russia.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Senior Russian officials continue efforts to portray the West as an existential threat to Russia to justify Russia’s long term war effort and to deter further Western military aid provisions to Ukraine. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev accused the West and NATO of preparing for direct military confrontations with Russia and of sowing internal instability in Russia, particularly in the Northern Caucasus Federal Okrug.[61] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and State Duma Committee to Investigate Foreign Interference Chairperson Vitaly Piskarev accused US Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy of supporting entities hostile to Russia and of attempting to interfere in the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential election.[62]</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Significant activity in Belarus</span></strong><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">Lithuanian intelligence reported on March 7 that Belarusian intelligence to increase activities in Lithuania and that Russian military support to Belarus has increased Belarusian military potential.[63] Lithuanian intelligence emphasized that Belarusian intelligence is particularly focused on Lithuania due to a growing Lithuania-based Belarusian opposition movement that Minsk perceives as a threat to its own regime and because Lithuania has a significant Belarusian diaspora from which Belarusian intelligence can recruit agents. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Belarusian intelligence also interrogates people traveling from Lithuania to Belarus to collect information and identify potential recruitable agents. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia’s transfer of Iskander-M ballistic missile systems, armored personnel carriers, S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, and Mi-35M attack helicopters to Belarus have augmented Belarus’ military potential. These deliveries likely increase Belarusian forces’ interoperability with Russian forces in joint activities and increase Belarusian forces’ ability to train Russian forces that deploy to Belarus.</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><img data-mce-src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_56.jpg" height="60" src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Babel%20Street%20email%20logo_0_56.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="500" /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><hr size="1" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: none; cursor: default; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" width="33%" /></div><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[1] https://www.vsd dot lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[2] https://www.vsd dot lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[3] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021524 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[4] https://www.vsd dot lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[5] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021424</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[6] https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/6560190 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/61793</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[7] https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/NATO-Sweden-Accession-Protocol-Notification-of-Entry-Into-Force-March-7-2024.pdf ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/the-white-house-announces-guest-list-for-the-first-ladys-box-for-the-2024-state-of-the-union-address/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[8] https://t.me/evgheniagutul/2441</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar123023 ; https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar112723</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[10] https://newsmaker dot md/ro/video-procurorul-general-interimar-sunt-suficiente-probe-pentru-a-demonstra-implicarea-evgheniei-gutul-in-fapte-infractionale/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[11] https://www.zdg dot md/stiri/stiri-justitie/precizari-pa-privind-alegerile-bascanului-din-gagauzia-a-doua-zi-dupa-inaugurarea-evgheniei-gutul-au-fost-recunoscute-in-calitate-de-banuit-11-persoane/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-bans-pro-russian-shor-party-after-months-protests-2023-06-19/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-russian-regional-leader-moldova-seeks-closer-ties-with-moscow-2023-05-15/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[13] https://t.me/ilanshor/4042 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235433 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/235418</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[14] https://t.me/evgheniagutul/2440</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[16] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[17] https://www.mfa.gov dot cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202403/t20240307_11255225.shtml ; https://www dot aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/7/fm-wang-yi-insists-china-force-for-peace-defends-russian-ties ; https://english dot news.cn/20240307/89a972cdc95b422ca74b1865a83a9189/c.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[18] https://isw.pub/UkrWar032023 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031723</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[20] https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[22] https://t.me/tass_agency/235394</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[23] https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/20182273</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[25] https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-03-03/isis-militants-russia-shootout-13194675.html</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[26] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/11949; https://t.me/UkrArmy3/827</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qKYL6J2RvcJzYm1DFEpD4C65Vxr4MArJb7Tgmf3oXsFj2dRPML99aDeTK97NM8pTl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36377 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36382; https://t.me/mod_russia/36368; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8015; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17455; https://t.me/dva_majors/35991</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[28] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/13105</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[29] https://t.me/umftteam/237 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/07/provalnyj-rosijskyj-shturm-bilya-maryinky-robota-droniv-47-yi-brygady-strim-iz-pryfrontovogo-mista/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[30] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qKYL6J2RvcJzYm1DFEpD4C65Vxr4MArJb7Tgmf3oXsFj2dRPML99aDeTK97NM8pTl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8036 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18599 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36377 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36384</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[31] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8041 (Soldear)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[32] https://t.me/wargonzo/18599 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8039</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[33] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qKYL6J2RvcJzYm1DFEpD4C65Vxr4MArJb7Tgmf3oXsFj2dRPML99aDeTK97NM8pTl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36377 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36384 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18599 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/115596</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[34] https://suspilne dot media/700524-na-avdiivskomu-napramku-bila-tonenkogo-ukrainski-vijskovi-vidkidaut-rosijskih-bijciv-aki-atakuut-osuv-tavria/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[35] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1686 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1685 ; https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof/posts/pfbid0jqrA5VrwTUuSLm3G9jbbtwZrJZ1rWeXFqRUaHWhhZgSLsKijb9pA3y2sdzHLzadQl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[36] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=427359869951493; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4673?single; https://t.me/z_arhiv/26206; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1409 ; https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1765385737636106484; https://t.me/GloOouDy/2575; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4675; https://t.me/rybar/57937</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[37] https://t.me/rybar/57937 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8046</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[38] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1319783902028384 ; https://t.me/otarnavskiy/577</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[39] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qKYL6J2RvcJzYm1DFEpD4C65Vxr4MArJb7Tgmf3oXsFj2dRPML99aDeTK97NM8pTl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54566 ;</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[40] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1686 ; https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof/posts/pfbid0jqrA5VrwTUuSLm3G9jbbtwZrJZ1rWeXFqRUaHWhhZgSLsKijb9pA3y2sdzHLzadQl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[41] https://t.me/mod_russia/36377 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36385</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[42] https://t.me/IronHelmets/2568 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/33823 ; https://t.me/grey_zone/22282 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63289</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl ; https://t.me/rybar/57952 ; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/26873 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18599 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/35991 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36053 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8047</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[44] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8030 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18599 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/26209 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4670 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8047</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[45] https://t.me/dva_majors/35991</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[46] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/07/u-sylah-oborony-rozpovily-pro-speczyfiku-vykorystannya-rosiyanamy-kvadroczykliv/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[47] https://t.me/dva_majors/35988 (503rd Regiment) ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36003 (291st Regiment) ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63258 (70th Regiment) ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/63264 (247th Regiment)</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[48] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09fMg2UA8mDroombFvZyDaUvWKvYzZy5HHvt2nNRBLYFiYuoaRmGnNhtWqEYjJy5Ql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid05EVffo2DEk9NuMBqfYTdWeYGHXDACvRWjvHLMkEDxkr9M7MTFqkwacpMHU8ypcVsl</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[49] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8019 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/35991 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/36041</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[50] https://mvs.gov dot ua/news/operativna-informaciia-shhodo-vorozix-obstriliv-po-ukrayini-171 ; https://suspilne dot media/700232-na-poltavsini-v-nic-na-7-berezna-zbili-raketu-so-vidomo/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[51] https://t.me/dsns_telegram/25902?single; https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/24737</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[52] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/03/07/rosijska-raketa-vtratyla-bojovu-spromozhnist-na-pidloti-do-uzberezhzhya-odeshhyny-nataliya-gumenyuk/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[53] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/03/06/oleksij-neyizhpapa-rozpoviv-skilky-droniv-ta-raket-vypustyla-rf-po-portovij-infrastrukturi-odeshhyny-z-lypnya-2023-roku/</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[54] https://www.vsd dot lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[55] https://t.me/istories_media/5406 ; https://storage dot googleapis.com/istories/news/2024/03/07/oboronnii-zavod-rostekha-v-kurgane-opublikoval-video-o-tom-kak-prekrasno-rabotaet-bez-sanktsii-na-video-prisutstvuet-podsanktsionnoe-oborudovanie/index.html ; https://t.me/rostecru/7179</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[56] https://t.me/istories_media/5403 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/03/07/vazhnye-istorii-rossiyskie-kompanii-v-2023-godu-vvezli-v-stranu-britanskie-izmeritelnye-sistemy-na-360-millionov-rubley</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[57] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4566</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[58] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4568 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030524</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[59] https://tass dot ru/politika/20176921; https://t.me/tass_agency/235255; https://t.me/tass_agency/235256</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[60] https://tass dot ru/politika/20176921; https://t.me/tass_agency/235255; https://t.me/tass_agency/235256</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[61] https://t.me/tass_agency/235371 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/19283; https://t.me/tass_agency/235383; https://t.me/tass_agency/235374; https://t.me/tass_agency/235391</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[62] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/949414; https://t.me/tass_agency/235369; https://t.me/tass_agency/235372; https://t.me/tass_agency/235373 ; https://t.me/astrapress/50398 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/76311; https://t.me/MID_Russia/35949</p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", sans-serif; font-size: 13.008px; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">[63] https://www.vsd dot lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf</p>ISWKFhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08723174087552053498noreply@blogger.com