Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 12 - 19, 2016

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russian air operations shifted eastward on January 18-19, targeting ISIS-held terrain in Homs, ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour Provinces following a major attack on Deir ez-Zour City by ISIS. ISIS launched an offensive against regime positions on the northwestern outskirts of Deir ez-Zour on January 17, seizing two villages and several military installations under the cover of a major sandstorm that reportedly grounded both regime and Russian aircraft. Russian warplanes subsequently shifted operations away from opposition-held terrain in Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs, Damascus, and Dera’a Provinces in order to target ISIS-held positions along the Euphrates River north and south of Deir ez-Zour City on January 18. The shift in Russian air operations serves to forestall the immediate defeat of regime forces in Deir ez-Zour City, one of the last remaining regime outposts in Eastern Syria. Russia previously carried out its first humanitarian aid drop in Syria on January 15, claiming to deliver over 22 tons of humanitarian aid to besieged regime positions in Deir ez-Zour City. The aid operation comes amidst renewed diplomatic pressure by the international community to lift sieges on civilian populations in Syria. Local sources could not confirm whether the aid was humanitarian or military supplies. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 8 - 14, 2016

By Jodi Brignola and Genevieve Casagrande 

Key Takeaway: The Russian air campaign enabled additional battlefield gains by the Syrian regime from January 8 to January 14, providing increased leverage to the regime ahead of negotiations between pro- and anti-Assad elements on January 25. Pro-regime forces seized the town of Salma in Northeastern Latakia Province with the support of as many as 200 Russian airstrikes on January 12. Salma has been consistently targeted by Russian airstrikes over the past three months, which began hitting the town as early as October 6. The seizure of Salma will enable further clearing operations against the armed opposition in Northeastern Latakia as pro-regime forces continue efforts to buffer the regime’s coastal stronghold. Pro-regime forces will likely take additional measures to degrade the capability of the armed opposition ahead of negotiations by intensifying advances on core opposition-held terrain in Idlib, Northern Homs, and Damascus, in addition to expanding and securing regime strongholds. The regime tightened its siege on the opposition-held pocket in Northern Homs Province on January 12, seizing the village of Jarjisah northwest of Rastan amidst heavy Russian airstrikes on opposition positions in the area. The seizure of Jarjisah reportedly severed the last opposition supply route into the area, completing the besiegement of roughly 250,000 civilians that currently reside there. 

Russia released the text of the August 26 agreement between Russian and Syrian officials that transferred control of the Bassel al-Assad airbase to Russia. The released text indicates that the agreement transferred control of Bassel al-Assad airport indefinitely and can only be officially terminated one year after a written request is submitted by either party. Russia’s publication of the text of this agreement clearly signals its intent to maintain military presence in Syria over the medium term regardless of the outcome of the January 25 negotiations. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also published footage of Russian and Syrian warplanes carrying out their first joint mission over Syria on January 14, a clear show of force for the Syrian opposition. The joint mission also demonstrates growing coordinative capabilities between the Syrian and Russian air forces, likely signaling deepened cooperation to come.  

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 4 - 11, 2016

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola 

Key Takeaway: Russia expanded efforts to portray itself as a neutral actor in Syria ahead of the next round of negotiations by claiming to support tailored elements of the Syrian armed opposition. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reiterated during a press briefing on January 11 that “only joint efforts” by the Syrian regime and select Syrian opposition groups will “achieve victory over terrorism” in Syria, despite Russia’s continued targeting of armed opposition factions. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian warplanes are currently conducting strikes supporting ground operations of 11 opposition factions, which the Russian MoD described as “Syrian patriotic forces.” Alleged recipients of Russian air support primarily consist of groups supported by the U.S. such TOW anti-tank missile recipient Jaysh Asoud al-Sharqiya, an anti-Assad opposition faction that has previously accused Russia of targeting their headquarters in the Damascus countryside. Russia claimed to conduct strikes “in the interest of” Jordanian-backed opposition group Jaysh Ahrar al-Asha’er in the villages of al-Taf and Khosh Hammad in Dera’a Province, areas where the group is currently clashing with ISIS. Local reporting, however, did not verify Russian strikes in the area. The Russian MoD also reported strikes supporting U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ anti-ISIS ground operations near Ayn Issa north of ar-Raqqa City. Local reporting indicated a limited number of Russian airstrikes occurred in the area, although it remains unclear if the Syrian Democratic Forces benefitted from these strikes. Russia is overstating and, in some cases, fabricating its efforts to support armed opposition groups in Syria. Russia aims to use this disinformation to obfuscate its position as the regime’s guarantor against the armed opposition and present itself as a legitimate mediating actor ahead of negotiations. Russia also seeks to demonstrate that it does discriminate between opposition groups in order to position itself as an authority in determining which parties are able to participate in negotiations. In tandem with airstrikes against other armed opposition groups, these efforts also ultimately aim to disrupt the U.S.’s partnerships inside Syria.

Russia continues to target critical infrastructure and inflict heavy civilian casualties in Syria. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius demanded the cessation of Russian and Syrian airstrikes on civilian locations on January 11, calling any such strike “inadmissible.” Russian strikes in Idlib Province resulted in 81 casualties, at least 22 of which were civilians, in a January 9 attack against a Jabhat al-Nusra prison in the town of Ma’aret al-Nouman. Local sources also reported that Russian strikes targeting three schools in the town of Anjara in Western Aleppo on January 11 killed as many as 35 civilians, including 17 children. Russian warplanes reportedly also targeted both a hospital and a relief warehouse in the Jebel Turkman Mountains of Northwestern Syria. The Syrian opposition demanded further confidence building measures from the regime ahead of negotiations to include the cessation of Russian airstrikes in Syria, stating that talks are not feasible while “there are foreign forces bombing the Syrian people.” The regime, however, remains unlikely to grant any such concession as Russian air operations have ensured the preservation of the regime and its superior position on the battlefield.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 28, 2015 - January 7, 2016

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola 

Key Takeaway: The tempo of Russian air operations slowed considerably from January 4 - 7.  ISW was only able to confirm 17 locations of Russian airstrikes during the reporting period, the lowest volume of Russian strikes since early October 2015. The cause of this decrease currently remains unclear; as the lull may have been caused by changing weather conditions, shifts in Russian posturing inside Syria, or deferred maintenance activities following several weeks of heavy Russian airstrikes.  

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 18 - 27, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande

Russian airstrikes continue to weaken the position of the Syrian armed opposition ahead of negotiations between pro- and anti-regime forces scheduled for January 25. An alleged Russian airstrike in Eastern Ghouta on December 25 killed leading Salafist rebel commander Zahran Alloush, the commander of prominent Damascus-based group Jaysh al-Islam. Alloush’s death could result in further instability inside rebel-held areas of the capital, threatening the success of a local U.N.-brokered evacuation deal between rebels and the Syrian regime in Southern Damascus as well as the upcoming January 25 negotiations. Jaysh al-Islam was the largest armed opposition group to sign the Riyadh opposition conference outcome document on December 10 and it remains unclear if Jaysh al-Islam will retain its support of the document following Alloush’s death. Russian airstrikes also concentrated across rebel frontlines with ISIS in Northern Aleppo Province, compounding pressure on Aleppo-based rebel factions. The majority of strikes targeted rebel positions from December 22 - 27, although Russian warplanes conducted a limited number of airstrikes in support the regime’s anti-ISIS operations in Homs, Aleppo, and Deir ez-Zour Provinces. 

The Russian air campaign continues to target local populations within rebel-held terrain in order to weaken the resolve of the Syrian opposition amidst renewed efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement to the Syrian Civil War. Amnesty International accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and killing over 200 civilians since the start of its air campaign, asserting that these incidents constitute “violations of international humanitarian law.” The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) subsequently denied the allegations.Local activist sources continued to report Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure in rebel-held terrain, accusing Russian warplanes of killing as many as 14 in strikes against hospitals in Azaz in the northern countryside of Aleppo on December 25. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 13 - 21, 2015

By Christopher Kozak, Jodi Brignola, Genevieve Casagrande, and Jared Ferris

Key Takeaway: Russia continues to use its air campaign in Syria to bolster the position of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad despite an ongoing political process to end the Syrian Civil War. Russian warplanes concentrated airstrikes against rebel positions southwest of Aleppo City from December 18 to December 21, enabling pro-regime forces to seize the keytown of Khan Touman and several nearby villages on December 20. Russian airstrikes later shifted to target rebel forces along the strategic M5 Highway to Aleppo City in likely preparation for future offensive operations. Russia also continued to indiscriminately target rebel-held terrain throughout Northwestern Syria and Damascus in an effort to bolster ongoing regime offensives and weaken the resolve of the opposition. Russia conducted only a limited number of airstrikes against ISIS targets in Aleppo and Homs Provinces over the reporting period. 

Russia remains willing to conduct its air campaign in Syria without regard to civilian casualties or international law. Russian warplanes targeted residential neighborhoods in rebel-held Idlib City on December 20, killing or wounding over two hundred civilians. The heavy bombardment sparked renewed clashes near the besieged pro-regime enclaves of Fu’ah and Kefraya northeast of Idlib City, threatening to overturn a UN-sponsored local ceasefire that also includes the besieged rebel-held town of Zabadani near Damascus. Russia also targeted a relief organization and food distribution center in the besieged Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus on December 20, demonstrating calculated intent to target critical civilian infrastructure as a tactic of war. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly began dropping PFM-1 ‘Green Parrot’ cluster mines in Syria in a new demonstration of disregard for international norms. ‘Green Parrot’ mines generated high levels of child casualties during the Soviet War in Afghanistan due to their bright colors and harmless ‘toy-like’ appearance. Nonetheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that Russia could use even more of its military capabilities if necessary in order to achieve its goals in Syria. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 7 - 17, 2015

 By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

 

Key Takeaway: Russia continues to use disinformation to present its air campaign as a constructive force in Syria ahead of the next wave of talks on the Syrian conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed to provide air support to elements of the Free Syrian Army in an effort to “unite” the various efforts of regime and “other groups” in Syria on December 15. Alleged recipients of Russian air support include the “Desert Lions” and “the Democratic Forces,” likely a reference to the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently operating in Aleppo and Hasaka Provinces. The Russian MoD claimed its first airstrikes in Hasaka Province on December 16. However, local reporting has not yet substantiated these claims and, thus, ISW does not assess them at even a level of Low Confidence at this time. Russian warplanes meanwhile continued to indiscriminately target rebel-held areas in northwestern Syria, which are home to both hardline and “moderate” FSA-affiliated rebel factions from December 13-17. The Russian air campaign continued its efforts to weaken the Syrian opposition as airstrikes concentrated along rebel front lines with the regime, ISIS, and Kurdish YPG forces in Damascus, Hama, Latakia, and Aleppo Provinces. Russian warplanes also continued to conduct a limited number of strikes against ISIS targets west of the Euphrates as regime forces continued to clear ISIS-held terrain near the Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Strikes in Syria: December 3-12, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jared Ferris

Russia and the Syrian regime faced significant setbacks in Syria this week as ISIS recaptured the towns of Maheen and Hawareen in the southeastern countryside of Homs on December 9. ISIS successfully repelled attempts by regime forces to recapture these towns on December 10, despite a large concentration of Russian airstrikes in the area. The regime previously seized Maheen and Hawareen on November 23 as components of a larger offensive to retake Palmyra further east in Homs Province. The seizure of Palmyra would represent a significant victory for both Syrian President Basar al-Assad and Russia as Russia continues to present itself and the Assad regime as effective anti-ISIS actors in Syria. Following these setbacks, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed ISIS’s influence in Syria is increasing and that the militant group controls around 70% of Syria. 

Russian airstrikes in Syria, however, continue to be concentrated in rebel-held terrain in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama Provinces, targeting positions across rebel front lines with the regime, ISIS, and Kurdish YPG forces. Russian airstrikes continued to target locations along the key rebel ground line of communication (GLOC) from northern Aleppo City to the Turkish border, coinciding with a recent ISIS offensive to sever the GLOC. Rebel forces, however, successfully slowed ISIS’s advance and recaptured the town of al-Hamzat in northern Aleppo from ISIS on December 11, despite the concentration of Russian strikes in the area. Russian airstrikes also targeted rebel front lines near the Kurdish Afrin canton in northwestern Aleppo, a site of recent clashes between rebel and Kurdish YPG forces.

The Russian air campaign continues to provide the regime with asymmetric capabilities against the armed Syrian opposition. A report published by the Syrian Network for Human Rights on December 8 illustrated that Russia’s concentrated air campaign in northern Syria has enabled the regime to direct the majority of its barrel bomb operations towards rebel-held Damascus suburbs and other areas of southern Syria. The use of barrels bombs by the regime and Russia’s continued punishment of local Syrian populations in rebel-held territory, such as the targeting of hospitals, bakeries, and markets, will only further exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Syria and increase refugees flows into Turkey and Europe.  

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: November 30 - December 6, 2015

 By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russia resumed its air campaign in Southern Syria in support of regime ground operations against the FSA-affiliated Southern Front from December 3-6. Russia’s renewed effort follows a December 3 declaration by FSA-affiliated Southern Front factions, including tribal fighters who claim to receive funding from Jordan, of a new offensive to seize the regime-held Judayyah artillery battalion in the northwestern countryside of Dera’a province. Russian airstrikes targeted areas along the nearby frontline surrounding the battalion, an area primarily held by Southern Front-affiliated factions. The shift comes just two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to avoid hitting “healthy,” non-terrorist rebel groups in Syria and to focus air operations against ISIS. While talks between members of the Syrian opposition and the Syrian regime are tentatively scheduled for January 1, 2016, Russia’s continued aggression makes the prospects of a mutually agreeable political transition unlikely.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry accused the U.S.-led coalition of conducting an airstrike against a regime military position in the town of Ayyash in Deir ez-Zour province on December 6 killing four Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers and wounding thirteen others. The ministry sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council in protest of “flagrant aggression by the U.S.-led coalition forces.” Operation Inherent Resolve Spokesman Colonel Steve Warren denied that the Coalition carried out the attack, stressing that the nearest coalition strikes targeted an ISIS-held oil field 35 miles away from the incident. Anonymous Pentagon officials stated that radar data indicated that the bombing had been a 'friendly fire' incident committed by a Russian bomber. Local sources have previously reported on alleged Russian strikes against regime positions along frontlines in both Homs and Latakia Provinces. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: November 25 - December 2, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russian air operations in Syria continue to pursue the preservation of the Assad regime. Spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve Colonel Steve Warren commented on Russia’s most recent statements regarding its operations in Syria, stating that “Everything they are doing is to support Assad, to keep Assad in power… Every time the Russians conduct an operation that extends or helps extend Assad's hold on power is yet another day that Syrian civilians will suffer under the boot of Bashar al-Assad.”

Russian airstrikes largely targeted rebel-held terrain in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama Provinces from November 30 to December 2. Russian warplanes concentrated in the northern Aleppo countryside, primarily striking targets along a key rebel-held ground line of communication (GLOC) necessary for the delivery of Turkish support into Aleppo City. This rebel supply line remains highly vulnerable as ISIS continues to advance in the area, capitalizing on the intensity of the Russian strikes. ISIS seized at least four villages east of the strategic border town of Azaz on December 2, bringing ISIS within six miles of the supply route. Meanwhile, regime forces supported by Iranian-backed proxy forces and Russian airstrikes continue to fix Syrian opposition fighters south of Aleppo City, likely hindering large-scale reinforcements from bolstering the northern rebel frontline against ISIS. The Syrian regime and ISIS have historically leveraged each other’s offensives in order to advance against rebel forces in the north of Aleppo City. Russian airstrikes, regime ground operations, and the most recent ISIS offensive threaten to incur major losses for rebel forces in Aleppo.

Russian airstrikes continue to punish local Syrian populations through the targeting of key civilian infrastructure in rebel-held territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released a video claiming to strike an “oil storage” facility on December 2. However, analysis by investigative journalists confirmed that the strike had in fact hit a water treatment facility located in eastern Aleppo. The strike reportedly produced significant damage to the facility and more than 1.4 million people in rural Aleppo suffered interruptions in their water supply as a result. Further analysis of Russian MoD strike footage as well as local activists reporting revealed that Russian airstrikes also targeted grain silos in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: November 11 - 29, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Russia shifted its airstrikes in Syria to concentrate along the Turkish border following the downing of a Russian jet by Turkish warplanes on November 24 in an effort to reassert its freedom of action inside Syria. Russian airstrikes focused on the rebel-held Bab al-Hawa and Bab al-Salam border crossings as well as the ISIS-held Jarablus border crossing from November 25 - 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the arrival of its advanced S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system at the Bassel al-Assad International Airport in Latakia on November 26 in an effort to deter Turkey from conducting future attacks on Russian warplanes. Additionally, the Russian MoD announced that Russian Su-34 bombers are newly equipped with air-to-air missiles “for providing security of the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces.” Russo-Turkish relations have deteriorated considerably since the incident as Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved an official list of economic sanctions against Turkey on December 1. Turkish officials maintain that Turkey will not offer an apology, asserting that the Turkish Armed Forces took “defensive action” and responded appropriately to the unwarranted Russian airspace violations. Both Russian and Syrian presidents have openly accused Turkey of supporting terrorism in Syria in the wake of the incident. Russian President Vladimir Putin went as far as accusing Turkey of downing the Russian warplane in order to “defend its supplies” of oil from ISIS-held territory in Syria.

The Russian air campaign in Syria otherwise continues to prioritize the preservation of the Assad regime. Russian strikes engaged several civilian targets from November 25 to November 29, emulating the regime’s use of its air power to punish civilian populations. Russia’s strikes along the Turkish border notably struck civilian targets, accomplishing multiple Russian objectives. Russian warplanes conducted at least six rounds of airstrikes targeting convoys of humanitarian aid trucks entering Syria from Turkey in the border town of Azaz in northern Aleppo Province on November 25 and another convoy in the vicinity of the Bab al-Hawa border crossing in northern Idlib on November 28. Local sources claimed that Russian airstrikes also targeted a bakery in Idlib province on November 29, which was reportedly responsible for the distribution of bread to over 45,000 IDPs.

Russia continues to present itself as a decisive actor against ISIS to the international community despite the relative low number of Russian airstrikes targeting ISIS in Syria. Russian airstrikes targeted ISIS-held oil infrastructure in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour in addition to targeting core ISIS terrain in the northern Aleppo countryside and eastern Homs. Putin asserted that Russia remains “ready to cooperate” with the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition on intelligence-sharing measures and other battlefield cooperation in Syria. Putin stated that France and Russia agreed upon bilateral measures to coordinate battlefield activities and share intelligence regarding legitimate targets for airstrikes in Syria following a meeting with French President Francois Hollande on November 26. Putin reportedly requested a map of “forces that are not terrorists and fighting ISIS” during the meeting and pledged to avoid targeting these groups. Such a map would enable Russia to better target the Syrian opposition to the ultimate benefit of the Assad regime. 

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian Strikes in Syria: November 6 - 17, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russia announced a new phase of its air campaign in Syria on November 17 following a new directive from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This new directive comes as FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov confirmed the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268 to be “a terrorist act.” President Putin vowed to “punish” those responsible and stated that the Russian air campaign in Syria “must be intensified in such a way that the criminals understand that retribution is inevitable." The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that the new air operations plan will double the size of Russia’s strike force able to target positions inside of Syria to include 25 long-range strategic bombers, 8 SU-34s, and 4 SU-27s. These new warplanes will be based from the Mozdok airbase in Northern Ossetia along Russia’s southern border with Georgia and flown over Iranian and Iraqi airspace to launch operations inside Syria. The new phase will also include an increased number of combat sorties from the Bassel al-Assad International Airport in Latakia Province.
 
Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu reported during a briefing with President Putin that 12 long-range Tu-95 bombers carried out airstrikes against ISIS' positions in ar Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour on November 17. One Tu-160 and one Tu-95 fired 34 Kalibr cruise missiles at targets in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces on November 17. The U.S. was alerted of Russia’s intention to use sea-based cruise missiles in addition to long-range aircraft prior to these strikes according to an anonymous U.S. defense official. Multiple sources including the Russian MoD and the French MoD stated that Russia used cruise missiles to strike ISIS positions in Raqqa. French newspaper Le Monde reported that Russia launched cruise missiles from the Mediterranean, citing anonymous sources. The Kremlin did not confirm cruise missiles targeting ISIS in ar Raqqa. Local ground reporting only confirmed cruise missile strikes against rebel positions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces with some local Syrian sources reporting that the missiles were fired from the direction of the Mediterranean. Notably, the majority of Russian airstrikes from November 16-17 targeted rebel positions, not ISIS.
 
Russia’s intensified air campaign may open the opportunity for Russia to continue its efforts to draw Western countries into a new counterterrorism coalition in the Middle East. French Defense Minister Jean Yves Le Drian stated that the cruise missile strikes near ar Raqqa may indicate “this grand coalition with Russia is possible.” Increased airstrikes by both France and Russia prelude further cooperation between the two countries. Russia will continue to present itself as an effective anti-ISIS actor in Syria to the international community, despite the continuous low number of Russian airstrikes targeting core ISIS terrain.
 
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. The recent influx in Russian strikes throughout Syria caused a notable inflection in ground reporting as well as discrepancies within Western and Russian media sources. Those strikes that have been reported inconsistently from news sources deemed reliable within the past 48-hours are represented by an “Unknown Russian Strike” categorization. Instances of cruise missiles are only depicted if reliable picture or video documentation of the missile has been released.
 
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
 
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: November 4 - 15, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande

Key Takeaway: Russia continues to prioritize the preservation of the Assad regime rather than the defeat of ISIS through its air campaign in Syria. Russian airstrikes primarily supported regime ground operations against the Syrian armed opposition from November 13 – 15, concentrating in the southern countryside of Aleppo and the northern countryside of while pro-regime ground forces attempted to advance. ISW assessed Russian airstrikes against only one ISIS-held location with low-confidence during the reporting period. Meanwhile, the French Ministry of Defense announced French aircraft dropped 20 bombs against ISIS in ar Raqqa on November 15 in retaliation for the violent string of terrorist attacks carried out by ISIS in Paris on November 13. Russia will likely leverage the Paris attacks to drive its efforts to form a new counterterrorism coalition in the Middle East. Russia will continue to present itself as a decisive partner against ISIS in Syria to the international community, despite the relatively low number of Russian airstrikes targeting core ISIS terrain.

The Russian air campaign in Syria is accelerating the radicalization of the Syrian armed opposition. The brutality of the Assad regime against civilian populations throughout four years of armed conflict has driven rebels into partnerships with Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, a powerful anti-Assad ground force. Russia’s air campaign uses similarly indiscriminate tactics against civilians. U.S. officials have confirmed the Russian use of cluster munitionsagainst populated locations in Hama and Idlib Provinces. Open source reporting indicates the use of cluster munitions in Aleppo Province as well. Russian airstrikes have reportedly killed over 254 civilians from September 30 – October 26 alone, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights. Russian airstrikes reportedly targeted at least 12 medical facilities throughout Syria, according to statements from Doctors Without Borders on October 29. Local sources also reported the use of white phosphorus during Russian airstrikes in Idlib Province on November 12. Russia’s violent intervention is already driving the unification of rebels under powerful jihadist and hardline elements of the armed opposition. Three rebel groups made up of foreign fighters pledged allegiance to Jabhat al-Nusra from September 23 to October 3, and three groups merged under hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham beginning in early September 2015 following reports of increased Russian presence in Syria.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. 

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible. 

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.