by: Ahmed Ali and Nichole Dicharry
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: December 19-21, 2014
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: December 13-14, 2014
By: Ahmed Ali and Nichole Dicharry
Ahmed Ali is a Senior Research Analyst and the Iraq team lead at the Institute for the Study of War.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
ISF Withdraws to Defensive Positions in Anbar Province
By Christopher Kozak
Key Takeaway: Iraqi Army units in Anbar province have adopted a largely defensive posture in October 2014, retreating to their bases and leaving the defense of most urban areas in the hands of local Iraqi Police and Sunni tribal forces. The recent success of ISIS offensives in western Anbar will place the ISF in an inferior position for launching future counter-offensives. Many of the ISF units in Anbar are now understrength, suffer poor morale, and lack decisive leadership – leaving them vulnerable to ISIS attempts to isolate, encircle, and destroy the remaining Iraqi Army presence in the province. If the Iraqi Army cannot reinforce its positions and regain the offensive, the ISF may find itself hard-pressed to curb ISIS momentum in Anbar province and the western Baghdad Belts.
As demonstrated by the sudden fall of Hit district to ISIS forces on October 3, 2014, ISIS possesses significant offensive momentum in western Iraq which has not been entirely curbed by coalition airstrikes. As of October 29, 2014, ISF units augmented by local police and tribal forces man positions in Haditha, al-Asad Airbase, in the vicinity of Ramadi, and in Amiriyat al-Fallujah. Recently, on October 5, ISF units around Ramadi retreated from the city to their military headquarters. If the Iraqi Army cannot maintain these positions in outer Anbar, ISIS will exercise control of the Euphrates to project force into Amiriyat al-Fallujah, Abu Ghraib, and Baghdad itself. The poor performance of the Iraqi Army exemplified by retreats also threatens to raise the prominence of Iraqi Shi’a militias within the Iraqi military. These militias, which have won acclaim for their role in breaking the siege of Amerli in Salah ad-Din province in August and completing the clearing operation in Jurf al-Sakhar in northern Babil province on October 27, are highly sectarian and display ties to the Iranian government. Their rise at the expense of a national Iraqi Army poses an additional challenge to the Iraqi state.
Some of the disorganization in Anbar may be linked to leadership changes or losses. On October 7 - only a few days after reports of IA withdrawals in Ramadi and Hit – tribal leaders in Anbar province demanded that Anbar Operations Command chief Lieutenant General Rashid Flaih be removed from his post for “mishandling the security portfolio” in the province. On October 12, ISF leadership in the province took another blow when Anbar police chief Ahmed Saddak al-Dulaimi was assassinated by an IED, potentially weakening the command structure of the Iraqi Police units forming the front line of resistance against ISIS. Targeting local leaders to eliminate nodes of resistance is a long-standing ISIS tactic. On September 7, for example, Anbar governor Ahmed Khalaf al-Dulaimi was injured when ISIS militants attacked his convoy with rockets and on October 19 the commanding general of the Iraqi Army 8th Motorized Brigade was killed by a SVBIED at his headquarters in Amiriyat al-Fallujah.
However, Iraqi Army units in Anbar province suffer deficiencies of manpower and morale more broadly. This was true even before numerous Iraqi Army units deployed to reinforce Anbar in early 2014, but after many months of fighting these conditions may still prevail. The expansion of al-Jazeera and Badia Operations Command (JBOC) activities near Hit in mid-June and the deployment of elite Counter-Terrorism Services / Iraqi Army units east of Ramadi in early October, as well as an October 12 offer from the Badr Organization militia to intervene in Anbar province, may indicate a belief that Iraqi Army units under Anbar Operations Command have been put under severe pressure by recent events. In many cases, these units were already operating at reduced strength due to desertion and attrition. If the Iraqi Army cannot reinforce its positions and regain the offensive, the ISF may find itself hard-pressed to curb ISIS momentum in Anbar province and the western Baghdad Belts.
The following sections describe ISF units and their positions in key areas of Anbar province in greater detail. This information is a current estimate as of October 29, 2014.
The town of Haditha is garrisoned by a robust combination of Iraqi Army, Iraqi Police, and local tribal fighters. Units from the Iraqi Army 7th Infantry Division drawn from nearby Al-Asad Airbase remain on the frontlines in Haditha and have not adopted the passive stance seen in other areas of Anbar. Pro-government Sunni tribes – and particularly the al-Jughaifi tribe – maintain a highly active presence in Haditha and even engage in limited offensives on the outskirts of the district. Al-Jazeera and Badia Operations Command (JBOC) has coordinated effectively with the tribal fighters, providing them additional arms and convincing 28 local tribes to support ISF operations in the district on October 8. A unit of elite Counter-Terrorism Services (CTS) members is also present in Haditha. The active force posture of ISF units in Haditha likely reflects the importance which JBOC places on defending the nearby strategic Haditha Dam.
Al-Asad Airbase is the designated headquarters of the Iraqi Army 7th Infantry Division and remains the primary deployment location of the unit. However, the 7th Division was heavily depleted by desertions and had its leadership gutted by an ISIS ambush in Rutbah in December 2013 which killed the division commander and 17 members of his senior staff. Helicopter gunships and at least one unit of Emergency Response Brigade (SWAT) Iraqi Police are also reportedly located on the base. When ISF units retreated from Hit to their headquarters for ‘restructuring’ and withdrew from the surrounding areas, they likely pulled back to Al-Asad.
The areas along the Euphrates northwest of Ramadi, including Hit, are primarily the operation zones of local Iraqi Police and pro-government Sunni tribes – particularly the Albu Nimr and Abu Risha tribes – who continue to resist ISIS encroachment. When Iraqi Army units retreated to their headquarters at Camp Hit on the northwestern outskirts of Hit city, these Iraqi Police and tribal units stayed behind to defend their home territory in Hit district as well as the surrounding areas. On October 6, al-Jazeera and Badia Operations Command (JBOC) announced that it was preparing an offensive to retake Hit and on October 9 JBOC stated that it had participated in airstrikes against ISIS fighters near Hit. However, the exact forces which JBOC will bring to bear remain unclear and on October 13 the last Iraqi Army unit in Camp Hit – the 1st Tank Regiment, 27th Mechanized Brigade, 7th Infantry Division - withdrew to al-Baghdadi, near Al-Asad Airbase, leaving behind most of its tanks and armored vehicles.
Ramadi has been a central hub of ISF activity in western Anbar since ISIS took control of Fallujah in January 2014. The headquarters complex of Anbar Operations Command (AOC) lies on the northern edge of the city, while a headquarters containing at least two battalions from the 8th Motorized Brigade, 2nd IA Motorized Division (serving under the operational command of the 7th Infantry Division with additional regiments in Habbaniyah and Amiriyat al-Fallujah) sits on the western outskirts. Pro-government Sunni tribes – including the Abu Risha tribe – and Iraqi Police also helped secure the city against ISIS attack. On October 2 additional Iraqi Army troops and possibly Shia volunteer units arrived in Ramadi to reinforce the city. However, on October 5 the Iraqi Army units in the city withdrew to their bases in Anbar Operations Command and the 8th Brigade headquarters. Reports indicated that several neighborhoods in Ramadi fell to ISIS after the withdrawal, but at least some ISF units still operate in the city proper. Recent ISIS postings suggest that Emergency Response Brigade (SWAT) Iraqi Police and possibly Iraqi Army soldiers still engage ISIS on the outskirts of the city, while a review of Twitter reports surrounding Ramadi appears to indicate that Iraqi Police and tribal fighters still resist ISIS advances into the city despite the withdrawal of most Iraqi Army forces. These remaining tribal and police units have performed well in urban operations, repelling a major ISIS assault on October 17 and clearing several areas in the city, but their ability to project force outside Ramadi’s urban core appears limited.
A series of outposts held by Iraqi Army motorized regiments are scattered along the International Highway in a measure meant to protect the critical supply line connecting Ramadi to Baghdad. However, many of these units have been cut off and besieged by ISIS. News reports indicate that at least two units – the 10th Regiment, 30th Commando (Motorized) Brigade – Tank Battalion, 8th IA Division and the 2nd Regiment, 39th Motorized Brigade, 10th IA Division – have been surrounded in this manner. Both of these units come from southern Iraq and were deployed to Anbar province as reinforcements after the fall of Fallujah. The Iraqi Army appears to have committed portions of its elite units – including the Counter-Terrorism Services ‘Golden Division’ and the Iraqi Army 1st Rapid Reaction Force - to break the sieges of these outposts and reopen the supply lines to Ramadi.
Along with the precarious ISF positions in outer Anbar province detailed above, ISIS also threatens to overrun the strategic town of Amiriyat al-Fallujah. Amiriyat al-Fallujah is located in inner Anbar province, southeast of Fallujah, and controls access to the southwestern Baghdad Belts system, including Karbala and northern Babil province. Thus, the town occupies a critical node in the ISF defensive lines surrounding the capital. As of early October, Amiriyat al-Fallujah was garrisoned by at least one battalion of the Iraqi Army 8th Motorized Brigade as well as Iraqi Police and several local anti-ISIS Sunni tribes , including the Albu Issa, al-Fahailat, al-Halabsa, and Albu Alwan tribes. In response to reports that ISIS militants with armored vehicles and heavy weapons were surrounding Amiriyat al-Fallujah from three sides in preparation for an offensive, the Iraqi Army reinforced the area with unknown units from Baghdad and northern Babil province on October 17. After Iraqi Security Forces supported by coalition airstrikes repelled a major ISIS assault on Amiriyat al-Fallujah on October 22, the Iraqi Army deployed an additional two companies - totaling 200 soldiers - to the town. Two armored regiments were also sent to the town on 28 OCT after several additional ISIS offensives. The battle for Amiriyat al-Fallujah will be a key test of the ISF’s ability to resist ISIS ground advances in Anbar province and Iraq as a whole.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Friday, October 3, 2014
ISIS Captures Anbar City in Coordinated Offensive
By Lauren Squires and Christopher Kozak
On October 2, ISIS detonated three SVBIEDs in Hit, a city between Ramadi and Haditha, targeting security checkpoints at the western and eastern entrances of the city as well as the city center. Hit is one of the few remaining areas in the Thar Thar area of Anbar Province that is not under ISIS control. ISIS followed this initial SVBIED wave with a ground attack and now reportedly controls between 70 and 90% of Hit. Local nationals report ISIS members moving freely around the city and black flags flying over government buildings.
Hit occupies a strategic position along the Euphrates River Valley arm, and ISIS likely seeks to control Hit in order to counterbalance ISF control of Haditha, a city that has been highly contested between ISF and ISIS for the past several months. The attack on Hit is the latest in a series of operations that ISIS has conducted in Anbar province in order to gain freedom of movement and maneuver and to develop a secure staging area in preparation for further consolidating territory in the western Baghdad avenue of approach. Additionally, ISIS could be intensifying its effort in Anbar Province to eliminate tribal retaliatory attack planning. In the past two weeks ISIS has besieged an ISF base in Albu Aitha, north of Ramadi and overrun a second ISF position in Saqlawiyah northwest of Fallujah. ISIS persistently conducts attacks against emplaced ISF positions in the Euphrates River corridor to prevent ISF reinforcements from entering the province and to break ISF lines of communication to the outer Euphrates River belt.
ISIS’s Anbar urban offensive likely employs several different pincer movements in the outer Baghdad Belts and in the Euphrates River Valley, deliberately alternating its tactical engagements in time and space in order to keep the ISF and other adversarial forces off balance. ISIS attacks northwest of Baghdad appear to offset from ISIS attacks southwest of Baghdad, for example, and ISIS is offensives in eastern Anbar appear to offset from attacks in outer Anbar near Haditha. ISIS has been active in each of these locations over the last few weeks. ISIS tactics in the outer Anbar province also suggest ISIS commands from at least two distinct operational headquarter in Anbar. These two commands frame the Haditha-Ramadi corridor.
One headquarters element exercises control from the outer northwest Thar Thar region to middle Anbar, a block we have previously assessed to conduct attacks and provide strategic reinforcement along this corridor. The Thar Thar region that stretches from Fallujah north to Samarra is a likely stronghold for ISIS since the Abu Ghraib Prison attack in July 2013. ISIS took control of the Muthanna Complex there on June 11, 2014 - only a day after Mosul fell. The ISF have increasingly targeted villages on the southern edge of the region, such as Garma, after ISIS entered Fallujah in December 2013, but the evidence indicates that ISIS probably maintains a significant force in this zone.
The other element is likely in southwestern Anbar along the southern bank of the Euphrates near Haditha and Ana. This element is most likely responsible for attacks from far western Anbar towards the Haditha - Ramadi axis. ISIS was conducting attacks in Haditha at an almost daily rate in early September 2014. However, ISIS has been unsuccessful penetrating ISF defenses in Haditha and has shifted both logistical and operational focus farther down the Euphrates River Valley corridor. ISIS likely seeks to merge the efforts of these two Anbar elements and close the gap at Hit. If ISIS succeeds in this, it will isolate pro-government tribes that are fighting ISIS in Haditha and Ramadi from ISF reinforcements. It will also relieve ISIS elements in Anbar by diminishing the local population’s opportunity to resist. The ISIS offensive for Anbar is closely linked to the ISIS campaign for the Baghdad Belts. If ISIS can consolidate its core strength in Anbar, then its reinforcements that are currently augmenting attacks in this zone will likely shift to reinforce the northern and southern Baghdad Belts and prepare to attack the capital.
Hit locator map with ISIS control, attack, and support zones.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: September 17, 2014
by: Ahmed Ali and Nichole Dicharry
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: September 15-16, 2014
by: Ahmed Ali and Nichole Dicharry
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: September 12-14, 2014
by: ISW Iraq Team, Jessica D. Lewis, and Nichole Dicharry
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Iraq Situation Report: September 8-9, 2014
By Ahmed Ali, ISW Iraq Team, and Nichole Dicharry
Ahmed Ali is a Senior Iraq Research Analyst and the Iraq Team Lead.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Monday, August 11, 2014
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Friday, August 1, 2014
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)