UA-69458566-1

Saturday, April 8, 2017

Syria Strike Opens Doors for U.S. Strategy


Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande with the ISW & CTP Research Teams

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) produced this product with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP). The ISW-CTP team recently released “America’s Way Ahead in Syria,” which details the flaws in the current U.S. approach in Iraq and Syria and proposes the first phase of a strategic reset in the Middle East.

The U.S strike against an Assad regime base in northern Syria on April 6, 2017 opened the door to a reorientation of American strategy in the Middle East. President Trump’s action could reset the terms of America’s confrontation of other hostile states, such as North Korea. President Trump may be shifting away from a narrow focus on the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) as the strategic priority in Syria and toward a new approach. It remains unclear whether he will take additional action against the Assad regime, but his statement after the strike appeared to signal an emerging anti-Assad policy. Responses from major international powers and key regional actors indicate that these parties perceive the strike represents a possible strategic inflection rather than an isolated incident. President Trump has the opportunity to exploit the effects of his limited action to pursue America’s strategic goals.
Regional actors responded as if a wider American reorientation against Assad is possible. Traditional U.S. partners in the region like Saudi Arabia and Jordan supported the strike. Turkey also praised the strike and called for additional U.S. action against the Assad regime. These reactions indicate that the strike created an opportunity for President Trump to repair America’s relationships with traditional partners, which had begun to reorient toward Russia or to act unilaterally in dangerous ways in the absence of American leadership. European states under Russian pressure also supported the strike, indicating that the U.S. can still shape European policies toward Syria. President Trump may have an opportunity to leverage European support for counter-Assad measures to reengage Europe on the need to confront Russia in Syria. Actors deeper within the Russo-Iranian orbit, including Egypt and Iraq’s Shi’a political parties, expressed caution.
The pro-regime axis—Assad, Iran, and Russia—reacted in different but complementary ways. The Assad regime and Iran initially responded with caution. Their reactions indicate shared intent to avoid additional U.S. responses. The Assad regime downplayed the impact of the strike and resumed normal operations. Iran portrayed the U.S. as a regional aggressor but did not take military action. Iran’s initial reaction reflected a desire not to provoke the U.S. to escalate against Assad. Iran’s proxies also displayed discipline and did not escalate above previous levels of anti-American rhetoric. Iran’s response indicates that Iran seeks to avoid drawing the U.S. further into the region. The lack of immediate escalation by Iran or its proxies does not indicate that Iran will fail to respond if the U.S. takes additional action against Assad. Iran will undertake a sophisticated and possibly offensive strategy against U.S. interests and personnel in theater if it perceives further U.S. action against Assad is likely. Iran will also attempt to develop a joint response with Russia.
Russia’s initial response was reactionary. Russia focused first on repairing Vladimir Putin’s strongman image and the perception of the strength of Russian aerial defensive capabilities by condemning the strike and undertaking a show of force. Russia deployed a missile frigate to the Mediterranean Sea, conducted massive domestic military exercises, halted use of the aerial deconfliction mechanism with the U.S. in Syria, and stated it would bolster the Assad regime’s air defenses to deter further U.S. action. Russia later stated that it will speed up development of the S-500 system for domestic air defense. Russia shifted its narrative approach after 24 hours to cast President Trump as reckless. Russian rhetoric and propaganda portrayed the U.S. as an irresponsible aggressor in an effort to deny popular support for further U.S. intervention in Syria.  

Pro-Regime Axis
Assad regime
  • 07 APR: Syrian Information Minister Mohammad Tourjman stated that the strike had been “expected” and “limited in time and scope” while downplaying the possibility of “any military escalation” by Syria and Russia. Tourjman alleged that the strikes aimed to “support terrorist organizations” after their “heavy losses” at the hands of pro-regime forces. Tourjman claimed that the affected airbase was a “specialized base in the fight against terrorism.” (ReutersHurriyet, SANA)
  • 07 APR: The Syrian Presidency Office condemned the strikes as an “unjust and arrogant aggression” against a “sovereign state” and accused the U.S. of “attempting to dominate the world” through “reckless and irresponsible acts.” The statement vowed to “increase the pace of operations” against “terrorist agents” in Syria. (SANA)
  • 07 APR: The Syrian Arab Army General Command accused the U.S. of conducting a “blatant act of aggression” that undermines operations against terrorism. The statement accused the U.S. of acting as a “partner” to ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria and “sending wrong messages” that will “embolden [terrorists]...to use chemical weapons in the future.” The statement noted that the military will respond by “continuing its national duty” to “beat terrorism” and “restore security and stability to the entire territory” of Syria. (SANA, YouTube)
  • 07 APR: Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad stated that the strikes represented “aggression as defined by international law” that aimed to undermine the Syrian Arab Army. Mekdad noted that the strikes came after the “failure of the recent aggression” by Israel on Syria, stressing that the “two aggressions cannot be separated from each other.” Mekdad condemned the “fallen and unreliable opposition” for “fabricating allegations” against the regime rather than participating in the Geneva and Astana Talks. Mekdad stated that the U.S. remains committed to “supporting the terrorists” in order to weaken Syria against Israel and warned that countries backing the opposition will “all pay a heavy price” from the “terrorist attacks [that] will target them next.” (SANA)
  • 07 APR: Syrian Presidential Media Advisor Bouthaina Shaaban claimed that the strikes came under “false pretenses” to “rescue terrorists” and “undermine powers which fight terrorism” after gains by pro-regime forces. Shaaban accused the U.S. of conducting an “aggressive act without enough evidence” and noted that Israel is a “major beneficiary” of the conflict. Shaaban stated that Syria will support Russia at the UN Security Council to “condemn the U.S. aggression on a sovereign state.” (SANA)
  • 08 APR: Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis stated that the strikes represented “blatant support to terrorism” and emphasized that the incident will “increase [our] determination to confront the terrorist war.” (SANA)
Russia
  • 07 APR: Russia called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council in response to the U.S. strike. Russian deputy U.N. envoy Vladimir Safronkov stated that the U.S. strike on Shayrat was “illegitimate” and warned that it could have “extremely serious” consequences. (Reuters, Kremlin, UNSC)
  • 07 APR: Foreign Ministry announced the suspension of the air deconfliction mechanism with the U.S. in Syria. (The HillZaman al WaslAP, AFP)
  • 07 APR: The Kremlin condemned the strike as “aggression against a sovereign state” that violated international norms under “far-fetched pretexts” of a chemical weapons attack. The statement warned that the strike “inflicted considerable damage” to bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russia. (APReutersReuters, AFP)
  • 07 APR: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned that the strikes had come “one step away from military clashes” with Russia. (APReutersReuters, AFP)
  • 07 APR: Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairperson Konstantin Kosachev stated that the strikes “put to rest without even being born” any possible counter-terrorism cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. (APReutersReuters, AFP)
  • 07 APR: Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov stated that Russia will take a “complex of measures “to strengthen air defenses and “protect the most sensitive infrastructure” in Syria. (APReutersReuters, AFP)
  • 07 APR: Russian military holds a combined arms drill for the Eastern Military District that includes the participation of four combat aviation groups from the Southern military district. (RG.RU)
  • 07 APR: The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the redeployment of the Admiral Grigorovich from the Black Sea to Tartous, Syria. (Newsweek)
  • 07 APR: Russia opens a branch of its International Mine Action Center in Homs Province. (Sputnik)
  • 08 APR: Commander of the Russian Aerospace Force Col. Viktor Bondarev announced that the Russian S-500 air defense system will be put in service “in the near future.” (Sputnik)
  • 07-08 APR: Russian officials alleged that the U.S. strike against the Assad regime benefitted ISIS, leaving pro-regime forces without air support during ISIS ground operations in the area. (RT, Tsargrad.tv, UNSC)
  • 08 APR: The Russian Foreign Ministry alleged that the U.S. is using direct military action against Assad in order to “divert attention” from recent civilian casualties from U.S.-led coalition airstrikes in Mosul, Iraq. (Sputnik)
  • 08 APR: A pro-regime airstrike targeted the town of Khan Shaykhoun in southern Idlib, the site of the chemical weapons attack, killing one woman. (SOHR, Chicago Tribune)
Iran
  • 07 APR: Head of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi called the U.S. airstrikes on Syria a “conspiracy” because “everyone in the world knows that the Syrian government… has handed over all its chemical weapons.” Boroujerdi said that the airstrikes demonstrate the “defeat” of U.S. policies in the Middle East. Boroujerdi stressed that the airstrikes’ “consequences will not be good for America.” Boroujerdi said that Trump’s decision to launch the airstrikes is contrary to his promises during his campaign and thus “shows Trump’s decline.” Boroujerdi stated that Iran’s response to the airstrikes will occur “according to [Iran’s] cooperation with Russia, Iraq, and Syria.” Boroujerdi stated, “Undoubtedly, America’s ill-advised action will be followed by serious consequences, because Russia and Iran will not sit quietly in the face of acts which are contrary to the region’s interests.” Boroujerdi also noted that a country usually chooses to use chemical weapons when its armies are failing in war, and stated that “the Syrian army is in its best position right now. Aleppo has been liberated and other areas are also being liberated. (IRNA, Shafaqna, Asr Iran)
  • 07 APR: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that just as the U.S. resorted “to military force” in its invasion of Iraq in 2003 “over bogus [chemical weapons] allegations,” so it is resorting to military force “over bogus [chemical weapons] allegations” in its airstrikes in Syria. Zarif claimed that “Not even two decades” after the September 11 attacks, the U.S. military is “fighting on the same side” as al Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen and Syria. (ISNA, IRNA)
  • 07 APR: Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghassemi stated that “Iran condemns any use of chemical weapons, regardless of the perpetrators and the victims.” Ghassemi indicated that the U.S. used the “suspicious chemical attack” as an “excuse” to launch the airstrikes. Ghassemi stressed that America’s “use of a chemical attack in Syria” as “pretext for unilateral action is dangerous, destructive,” and in “violation of peremptory principles of international laws.” Ghassemi stated America’s actions will “reinforce declining terrorists and add to the complexity of the situation in Syria.” (CNN, Fars News Agency, Fars News Agency)
  • 07 APR: Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the international affairs advisor to Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, stated that the U.S. airstrikes prove “that the fight” against ISIS is “still” not America’s “priority.” Larijani called the airstrikes “hasty,” contrary to international law, and “to the detriment of regional and global security.” He stressed that the U.S. is ignoring international endeavors to resolve the Syrian crisis politically. (Tasnim News Agency)
  • 07 APR: Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani stated that the U.S. launched the airstrikes in order to conceal its “support for the terrorists.” Emami Kashani reiterated the regime’s statement that the U.S. helped create terrorist groups in the region. He also stated that the allegation that the Assad regime was responsible for the chemical weapons attack is a “lie.” (Fars News Agency, IRNA)
Iranian Axis Parties
  • 07 APR: The al Houthi movement in Yemen backed Syria’s Assad regime. Al Houthi-Saleh Prime Minister Abdul Aziz bin Habtour condemned the U.S. cruise missiles strikes in Syria as a “blatant violation of a sister Arab state's autonomy” and a violation of international law. Bin Habtour expressed support for the Iranian and Russian governments for their condemnation of the attacks. Bin Habtour also stated that he is not surprised by Arab states expressing their support for their attack, as they are also “official sponsors of the Sunni extremist terrorist groups that kill the Syrian people.” The Political Council of Ansar Allah (al Houthi political union) issued a formal statement mirroring bin Habtour's and added that it supports “any steps to respond to the American aggression” taken by Syria. (Saba)
  • 07 APR: Iranian proxy militia Harakat al Nujaba spokesperson Hashim al Mousawi stated that the U.S. airstrike “does not change the rules of engagement and our position does not change (regarding) the direction of the war in Syria.” Nujaba blamed the chemical weapons attack on the U.S. as an attempt to save “terrorist gangs.” He added that the airstrike was in response to the shooting down of an Israeli aircraft targeting Syrian air defenses. (Facebook)
  • 07 APR: A statement by the political bureau of the Badr Organization reported that the U.S. strike against the Syrian Government was based off on “flimsy” pretenses. The statement continued, condemning the “brutal attack” calling it “a serious turning point in the Syrian crisis” and stressing the concern of international and Arab communities that the attacks will “constitute an opportunity to strengthen terrorist groups in the area.” The Badr Organization reiterated that the “Syrian people alone have the right to self-determination and to choose their system of government with full freedom and sovereignty” and called on the international community to use diplomacy to resolve the Syrian crisis and assist only in counter-terrorism matters. (al Ghadeer)
  • 07 APR: Media Spokesman for the Badr Organization Jaafar al Quraishi stated that Syria is fighting terrorism and that the U.S. strike on a Syrian airbase was the “wrong target” and the U.S. did not “act correctly with targeting Syrian and Russian forces at the Shayrat airbase.” (RUDAW)

Regional Actors Balancing U.S and Russo-Iranian Coalitions
Turkey
  • 07 APR: Turkish President Erdogan stated Turkey’s support of U.S. missile strikes as a “positive concrete step” but “not enough” against the Assad regime’s war crimes. Recent developments have once again proved how accurate Turkey's efforts to create safe-haven protected areas in Syria are. (TCCB)
  • 07 APR: Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed full support of U.S. steps to hold the Syrian regime accountable and also stated Turkey would continue to advance a political solution process in Syria. (MFA)
  • 07 APR: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu advocated to oust the Syrian regime. (Reuters)
  • 08 APR: Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara sees the U.S. intervention in Syria as appropriate but not enough. Cavusoglu stated “If this intervention is limited only to an air base, if it does not continue and if we don’t remove the regime from heading Syria, then this would remain a cosmetic intervention.” (Washington Post)
Egypt
  • 07 APR: The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a statement calling Russia and the U.S. to contain the Syrian conflict and achieve a comprehensive and final solution to the Syrian crisis, and to act on the basis of international legitimacy decisions. The statement also called for sparing Syria and the Middle East the risk of an escalation of the crisis, in order to preserve the lives of the Syrian people, through the commitment of all Syrian parties to immediately cease fire, and return to the negotiating table under the auspices of the UN. The ministry stated that Egypt is following with deep concern the repercussions of the Khan Shaykhoun crisis. (Al Arabiya)
Iraq
  • 07 APR: State of Law member Firdaus al Awadi stated that the strike “will negatively affect the progress of fighting in Iraq” and that the chemical weapons attack was the pretext to “change the equation in the Middle East,” weakening Russia and returning to a unipolar world. Awadi stated that the U.S. could not abandon ISIS, which was a pretext for the U.S. to re-occupy the Middle East. Awadi stated that the U.S. would try to restore its military presence in Iraq and work to build permanent bases. (Almirbad)
  • 07 APR: National Alliance leader Ammar al Hakim expressed “deep concern” over the U.S. strikes on a Syrian air base in Homs. Hakim called for “calm dialogue and a political solution,” stating that “the region cannot tolerate further conflicts and escalation, as it would only serve ISIS’s interests.” Hakim called for “a scientific, neutral, transparent investigation into the chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhoun.” (All Iraq News)
  • 07 APR: Kadhimiyah-based pro-Sadr cleric Ayatollah Jawad al Khalisi stated the need for a “comprehensive resistance” in the region against “American aggression” after the U.S. strike against the Syrian government as it “represents the beginning of a dangerous phase,” noting that the strike occurred near the anniversary of the “aggression against Iraq.” Khalisi denounced the strikes adding that they would only “escalate the confrontation.” (NRTTV)
  • 08 APR: Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al Sadr stated that it was fair for Syrian President Bashar al Assad to resign to save Syria from the "scourge of war and domination by terrorists." He called the airstrike harmful to the international community. He "did not rule out" that the decision to strike Syria was pretext to "expand" and warned that the U.S. is a sponsor of terrorism. He also warned that the strike could draw the region into conflict, as Syria has become a "crucible of abhorrent political conflict." Sadr stated that the U.S. should instead support dialogue if it wants to be a sponsor of peace and to be impartial to any side in conflicts, including in the Palestinian territories, Burma, and Bahrain. Sadr stated that "everyone knows" that U.S. military intervention was not feasible and not useful, noting how the U.S. decision to launch strikes in Iraq did not stop terrorism from proliferating in Iraq. Sadr called on all actors, including the U.S. and Russia, to withdraw from Syria and allow Syrians the right to determine their own future. (All Iraq News)
  • 08 APR: Prime Minister Abadi received a telephone call from Vice President Mike Pence to discuss Mosul operations and the security situation in the region. PM Abadi stressed the importance of focusing on fighting ISIS. PM Abadi condemned the use of chemical weapons and condemned "any party" that used them. He stressed the need to form a comprehensive plan to solve the crisis in Syria and to unite efforts to defeat ISIS. (All Iraq News)
Kurdish Factions
  • Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
    • 07 APR: The KRG Council of Ministers condemned the Chemical Weapons attack in Khan Shaykhoun and released a statement saying they hoped the U.S. missile attack on a Syrian airfield would become a reason to end such “crimes.” The KRG called on the international community to seriously work to find primary solutions to the conflict in the Middle East. (NRTTV)
  • Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
    • 07 APR: KDP leader and former Iraqi finance minister, Hoshyar Zebari, stated that the U.S. strikes on the Syrian air base in Homs is “good news.” Zebari added that “the strikes punished those who carried out the chemical attack [in Khan Shaykhoun].” (Shafaaq)
  • Kurdish National Council (KNC)
    • 07 APR: Representative of ENKS in Kurdistan Region of Iraq Khaled Ali stated that this event pleases not only the Kurds, but also the whole Syrian community. (Kurdistan 24)
  • Democratic Union Party (PYD)
    • 07 APR: Co-Chair of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) Salih Muslim stated, “We (PYD) believe this attack has a positive effect on the situation on the ground.... We hope [the attack] will force the actors involved to accept a political solution grounded in reality because peace is better than war.” (Dengea)
  • Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
    • 07 APR: The SDF did not release an official statement on 07 APR 17.

Regional Actors Expressing Full Support for U.S.
Saudi Arabia
  • 07 APR: The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its strong support for U.S. military operations carried out against military targets in Syria. (SPA)
Israel
  • 07 APR: Prime Minister Netanyahu announced his full support for President Trump's decision to strike the Syrian regime’s base in Homs, noting that the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated. (MFA)
  • 07 APR: Israel's President Reuven Rivlin stated the U.S. serves as an example for the free world, which “must support any step required to bring atrocities in Syria to an end.” (Official statement)
Jordan
  • 07 APR: Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani stated that Jordan considers the U.S. strikes “a necessary and appropriate response to the non-stop targeting of innocent civilians” with Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). (CNN)
Yemen
  • 07 APR: Internationally recognized Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansou Hadi expressed his full support for U.S. military operations in Syria in response to the Khan Shaykhoun chemical weapons attack. Hadi stated, “The U.S. strike is a necessary step to prevent the use of prohibited weapons against innocent civilians.” (Saba News)
Bahrain
  • 07 APR: The Bahraini Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed support for U.S. military operations against military targets in Syria and praised President Trump. It called on “efforts by all to maintain a ceasefire and arrange for negotiations that will lead to a comprehensive political settlement, on the basis of the 2012 Geneva 1 Conference.” (BNA)
UAE
  • 07 APR: The Emirati Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its strong support for U.S. military operations carried out against military targets in Syria. (MOFA)
Kuwait
  • 07 APR: The Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry expressed support for the U.S. strike in Syria and denounced the use of chemical weapons. (KUNA)
Qatar
  • 08 APR: The Qatari Foreign Ministry expressed support for U.S. military operations carried out against military targets in Syria. (All4Syria)
Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Syria
  • 07 APR: The Syrian FSA issued a statement welcoming the U.S. strikes against the Syrian air base in Homs, stating that “it is step in the right direction for the international community to assume its moral responsibility to help Syrian civilians.” The statement added that the strikes do not hinder counter-terrorism efforts, as “fighting the regime and sectarian militias is a big part of the counter-terrorism effort.” Moreover, the statement claimed that “the strikes are the first step towards a political settlement” and called on the U.S. and its allies to adopt a “clear position.” The statement further added that holding Assad and his accomplices accountable “can only be achieved by applying military pressure alongside political pressure.” The statement stressed that “military operations against the regime must continue.” (Twitter)

Salafi-Jihadist Groups
Al Qaeda
  • 07 APR: Al Qaeda ideologue Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi stated the U.S. strikes are "but a feather compared to" U.S. strikes on Muslim lands. He further condemned praising the strikes as akin to praising "a professional killer." (Twitter)
  • 07 APR: Several pro-al Qaeda Telegram accounts issued anti-American statements warning supporters that the U.S. is still an enemy of Muslims. Pro-al Qaeda Telegram accounts are also claiming that the U.S. coordinated the attack with Russia and Syria to ensure there were minimal casualties. (SITE)
ISIS
  • 07 APR: Failed to make a statement on 07 APR 17.

Western Europe
EU
  • 07 APR: European Council President Donald Tusk welcomed the move and said the EU will "work with the U.S. to end brutality in Syria.” (Telegraph)
UK
  • 07 APR: A spokesperson for the UK Prime Minister’s Office released the following statement: "Overnight, the U.S. has taken military action against the Syrian regime, targeting the airfield in Shayrat which was used to launch the chemical weapons attack earlier this week. The UK Government fully supports the U.S. action, which we believe was an appropriate response to the barbaric chemical weapons attack launched by the Syrian regime, and is intended to deter further attacks." (Telegraph)
  • 08 APR: UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson denounced Russia’s “continued [defense]” of the Assad Regime and expressed support for a political settlement in Syria. Johnson cancelled a trip to Moscow planned for Monday 10 APR following the chemical attack in Syria. (BBC)
France and Germany
  • 07 APR: France and Germany issued a joint statement denouncing Syrian President Assad for the use of chemical weapons and stated they would work with the UN to hold Assad responsible for his crimes. (Telegraph)
  • 07 APR: All three major French presidential candidates condemned the U.S. missile strike and did not implicate Assad in the chemical weapons attack. (Lejdd)
Netherlands
  • 07 APR: Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher and Foreign Minister Bert Koenders stated the attack should be seen as “warning against future chemical warfare.” (Dutch News)
Denmark
  • 07 APR: Denmark’s Foreign Minister Ander Samuelsen stated, “I support the American attack 100 percent. It is a response to a clear violation of all international rules, namely the use of chemical weapons.” (The Local)

Eastern Europe
Ukraine
  • 07 APR: Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called VP Pence to express support for U.S. actions to prevent President Assad's crimes against the Syrian people. (Twitter)
Poland
  • 07 APR: The Polish government supports the U.S. air strike in Syria according to a Polish cabinet spokesman. (Reuters)
Slovenia
  • 07 APR: The Slovenian Foreign Ministry expressed understanding for the U.S. strike in Syria, stating it considers the strike a “deterrent against potential new chemical attacks.” (Sta)

Baltics
Latvia
  • 07 APR: Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics stated the U.S. strike in Syria was an “adequate response” to the chemical attack in Syria. (Baltic Times)
Estonia
  • 07 APR: Estonian Minster of Foreign Affairs Sven Mikser stated the U.S. strike in Syria was “appropriate and necessary.” (News EER)
Sweden
  • 07 APR: Swedish foreign minister Margot Wallström released the following statement: “It is unclear whether the missile attack last night is the new American policy. It is important that there is also an international legal basis for action. Last night's missile attack also raises questions about how this could be compatible with international law. The issue must therefore return to the security council, which must take responsibility to reach a lasting political solution. There is already too much military power in Syria. It is high time that the Syrian people get to decide their own future.” (The Local)
Lithuania
  • 07 APR: Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite released the following statement: "The whole world, except for Russia and the Assad regime (…), view this as a war crime and a crime against humanity, therefore, a response is necessary. The response was directly demonstrated by the United States.” (Baltic Times)

Southern Europe
Italy
  • 07 APR: Italian Foreign Minister Angelino Alfano released the following statement: "Italy understands the reasons for a U.S. military action, proportionate and well-timed, as a response to an unacceptable feeling of impunity, and as a deterrence signal against the risk of further use of chemical weapons by Assad." (CNN)
Spain
  • 07 APR: The Spanish government released a statement calling U.S. action against Assad "a measured and proportionate response" to the regime’s use of chemical weapons. (CNN)
Portugal
  • 07 APR: Portuguese Foreign Affairs Minister Augusto Santos Silva expressed understanding for the U.S. strike in Syria, but did not implicate the Assad Regime in the chemical weapons attack. (Portugal Resident)
Kosovo
  • 07 APR: Kosovo's President Hashim Thaci announced his full support of President’s Trump action against “Assad’s murderous regime,” stating that Assad must “face justice” and the Syrian people “must be liberated.” (Twitter)

U.S. partners outside the Middle East and Europe
Japan
  • 07 APR: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated his support of the U.S. strike against the Assad regime. (Telegraph)
Canada
  • 07 APR: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated, “Canada fully supports the United States' limited and focused action to degrade the Assad regime’s ability to launch chemical weapons attacks.” (Official Announcement)

Russian Partners outside Middle East
China
  • 07 APR: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “China always opposes the use of force in international affairs and we advocate resolving disputes peacefully through dialogues... We always hold that the Syrian issue should be resolved through political means.” (CNN)
Bolivia
  • 07 APR: Bolivia requested an emergency, closed session of the UNSC. Bolivia condemned the strikes during the UNSC meeting. (Twitter, Fox News)

Other Actors
North Korea
  • 08 APR: North Korea Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. airstrike “a clear and unforgivable act of aggression against a sovereign state,” adding that “the reality of today proves our decision to strengthen our military power to stand against force with force was the right choice a million times over.” (Reuters)

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Russian and Iranian Basing in Syria: March 21, 2017

By Christopher Kozak, Genevieve Casagrande, and Tom Ramage

ISW Analysts React to the U.S.'s Anti-Assad Strike in Syria

For press inquiries, contact press@understandingwar.org

“There can be no future for Assad and his regime in Syria. It is good that the Trump Administration has recognized that the regime must go in order for negotiated settlement to occur. Demonstrating American will to use military force is a necessary first step. President Trump still needs a larger strategy to achieve the outcomes that US national security and humanity require.
- Jennifer Cafarella

“Immediate strikes do not preclude a more robust strategy. In fact, they open the door to it.” 
- Jennifer Cafarella

“We will change everyone’s calculus, and that starts a clock. Our adversaries and enemies will recalculate. The U.S. must move out smartly to achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, which include but go beyond preventing Assad from murdering his own people.
- Jennifer Cafarella

“Assad has reminded the U.S. and the world that his military campaign – and that of his external backers - is a crime against humanity.  President Trump is upholding America’s commitment to international law, as he should.”  
- Jennifer Cafarella

“Assad could not survive, let alone conduct systematic atrocities such as his repeated use of chemical weapons and other crimes against humanity, without the active support of Russia and Iran.  Assad will not stop until they withdraw their unconditional support for his brutality.” 
-Genevieve Casagrande

Deterrence is a persistent condition, not a one hour strike package. President Trump has demonstrated his intent and capability to use American force if necessary. He must sustain pressure against Assad in order to set conditions to achieve vital US national security interests in Syria.”
-Christopher Kozak

“The Trump Administration has begun to re-establish the credibility of an American military response, essential to creating conditions for a durable negotiated settlement.”
-Christopher Kozak


Download the PDF here

Jennifer Cafarella is the Lead Intelligence Planner at ISW

Genevieve Casagrande is a Syria Analyst at ISW

Christopher Kozak is a Syria Analyst at ISW


The Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project teams recently released “America’s Way Ahead in Syria,” which details the flaws in the current U.S. approach in Iraq and Syria and proposes the first phase of a strategic reset in the Middle East. 

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: March 1 - April 3, 2017

By Jonathan Mautner

Russia conducted aggressive air operations in central Syria from March 20 – April 3 in order to simultaneously blunt an opposition offensive and advance the radicalization of the armed opposition. Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate and a contingent of U.S.-backed opposition groups seized at least fifteen towns in northern Hama Province from pro-regime forces from March 21 – 23, advancing within four kilometers of regime-held Hama City. In response, Russian warplanes targeted a swathe of core opposition terrain linking northern Hama and southern Idlib Provinces over the next two weeks, fixing the movement of opposition fighters vying to reinforce the offensive. Russia also conducted high tempo air operations behind front lines during this period in an effort to overwhelm emergency response capabilities and press opposition forces into civil defense roles. At the same time, Russia intensified its air operations in northern Damascus City and its Eastern Ghouta Suburbs after Salafi-jihadi factions and U.S.-backed opposition group Faylaq al Rahman jointly lifted the pro-regime siege on the Qabun and Barzeh Districts of Damascus on March 21. In tandem with the redeployment of more capable regime ground units, the dramatic surge in Russian airstrikes effectively reversed much of the opposition advance near Hama City and enabled pro-regime forces to reinstate the siege. Absent a viable challenge to their air supremacy, Russian warplanes will continue to confer an asymmetric advantage to pro-regime forces in the Syrian Civil War.

Russia also continued its systematic campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure in opposition-held towns, routinely striking bakeries and hospitals in northern Hama and southern Idlib Provinces beginning on March 22. Russia’s target set and use of munitions designed to inflict severe casualties in densely populated terrain reflects its intent to punish and deter civilian populations that support the opposition. In pursuit of these aims, Russia conducted heavy waves of airstrikes against opposition-held Jisr al Shughur in western Idlib Province from March 27 – April 3, striking the city with cluster munitions almost daily after prominent Salafi-jihadi group Ahrar al Sham downed a regime helicopter in nearby Jabal al Akrad. By conducting such punitive operations in the context of an air campaign focused primarily on the acceptable opposition, Russia has deliberately encouraged both the political radicalization of more moderate factions and their military dependence on Salafi-jihadi groups. The participation of U.S.-backed factions in the al Qaeda-led Hama and Damascus offensives marks just one of the more recent indicators of Russia’s success in coercing the acceptable opposition into such coordination. By its design, Russia will continue to exploit the increasingly radical nature of the armed opposition in order to bolster the ostensible legitimacy of the pro-regime alliance and continue its air campaign in Syria with relative impunity.


The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.

High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.

Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.



CORRECTION: A previous version of this map was published with ISIS control underrepresented in eastern Aleppo Province.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Syria Situation Report: March 17 - 30, 2017

By ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct

Al-Qaeda resumed large-scale offensive operations against the regime following a consolidation phase in Northern Syria. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham - the successor of Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fatah al-Sham - and Ahrar al-Sham launched a major operation against pro-regime forces in Northern Hama Province on March 21. ISW has previously assessed that Al-Qaeda would launch operations against Hama City in order to destabilize the regime and achieve symbolic resonance among Salafi-Jihadists due to the 1982 Hama Massacre. Current conditions remain unpromising for the Geneva Talks on the Syrian Civil War that resumed on March 23. The likely failure of these negotiations will provide additional impetus to Al-Qaeda’s narrative that opposition groups should abandon the negotiating table.

The U.S. accelerated its campaign to isolate and seize Ar-Raqqa City alongside the Syrian Kurdish YPG. The YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched an operation to seize the Tabqa Dam west of Ar-Raqqa City on March 22 with extensive support from the U.S. including airstrikes, artillery fire, attack helicopters, and embedded advisors. The U.S. also transferred at least 500 SDF fighters to the southern bank of the Euphrates River via helicopter to cut the Aleppo - Ar-Raqqa Highway. The operation - which will likely provoke a negative response from Turkey - began on the same day as a two-day ministerial conference of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Washington D.C.

These graphics mark the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and Syria Direct. The graphic depicts significant recent developments in the Syrian Civil War. The control of terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of March 30, 2017.


Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Campaign for Mosul: March 17-29, 2017

By Emily Anagnostos and the ISW Iraq Team

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) slowed its advance into western Mosul on March 26 in order to regroup and prepare for an assault on the Old City, the densest part of western Mosul in terms of both population and infrastructure. The U.S. is deploying an additional 240 soldiers to Mosul, likely to support a final push through the Old City. The ISF has also slowed its operation out of continued concerns of civilian casualties throughout the western Mosul operation. Humanitarian concerns flared when local sources claimed that a Coalition airstrike on March 17 killed as many as 200 civilians. Meanwhile, Iran is deepening the role of its proxy Badr Organization in Ninewa Province to influence the post-ISIS security and political structure in the province.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) slowed its offensive in central Mosul on March 26 out of concern for the estimated 400,000 civilians remaining in the Old City. The ISF continues operations in the outer neighborhoods, but has largely paused the offensive into the Old City. Local sources claimed that a Coalition airstrike on March 17 killed as many as 200 civilians in the adjacent New Mosul neighborhood. The Coalition confirmed that it conducted a strike in the area on March 17, however the strike may have set off ISIS VBIEDs or rigged houses near the strike, which caused the bulk of casualties. U.S. officials insisted that the Trump Administration has not loosened the rules of engagement for airstrikes. The Obama Administration in December 2016 had allowed Coalition advisors on the ground to directly call in airstrikes in order to improve precision. International human rights groups have criticized the Coalition for not making sufficient effort to prevent civilian casualties, however. A UN official stated that at least 307 civilians have died in western Mosul so far, the majority in the March 17 airstrike. ISIS is deliberately complicating the Coalition’s ability to conduct airstrikes by using the civilian population as human shields.
The ISF is opening a second front to isolate the Old City, rather than working through it, in order to maintain pressure on ISIS and avoid civilian casualties. Units are advancing along the Old City’s western edge towards the Great Mosque, which they will likely seek to retake before turning inward. The ISF could also increase pressure on ISIS by positioning the 9th IA Division, which completed the recapture of Badush Sub-District on March 26, to breach Mosul from the northwest.

U.S. officials announced on March 27th the deployment of 240 additional troops from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, likely in order to accelerate the defeat of ISIS in Mosul. The troops have likely already arrived. This deployment is not likely a response to the March 17 airstrike, as the force is tasked with force protection and IED clearance, but it could still further enable airstrike precision. Iraqi political backlash against the March 17 airstrike could slow or constrain Coalition efforts, however. Sunni political leader Osama al-Nujaifi called for an “immediate end” to airstrikes in Mosul on March 24. A reduction in Coalition airpower in Mosul would increase the risk to ISF and U.S. forces by making them more vulnerable to ISIS tactics such as SVBIEDs.

Meanwhile, Iranian proxies in the Ministry of Interior and the Badr Organization have increased Iran’s influence in the Mosul operation.

  1. The ISF’s official media outlet listed the 2nd Badr Brigade’s operations together with the 9th IA Division northeast of Mosul city on March 22, suggesting a growing interoperability between the Popular Mobilization and the Iraqi Army. Coalition advisors are currently supporting the 9th IA Division.
  2. The Popular Mobilization entered Mosul’s city limits as part of a humanitarian campaign which it launched on March 14. Aid convoys entered recaptured western neighborhoods soon after, bearing the flags of the Badr Organization and Liwa Ali al-Akbar, a Hawza affiliated militia. Unidentified armed forces, likely Badr, accompanied the convoys.
  3. The Ministry of Interior, an Iranian client, appointed Abu Dargham al-Maturi as commander of the 6th Federal Police Division, a new unit that made its operational debut at the start of the western Mosul operation on February 19. Abu Dargham is also the commander of a Badr Organization’s brigade and has used his dual role to permit entry to proxy militias into off-limit operations. His appointment to the division underscores the risk of further Iranian infiltration into the ISF and inside Mosul.

The Badr Organization will continue to expand Iranian influence in Mosul after its recapture. It is already working to establish a political presence in northern Iraq. It may also try to coopt local tribal militias, currently acting as hold forces, as it did in Salah al-Din by financially supporting a tribal militia as part of the Popular Mobilization in early 2016. The Badr-controlled Ministry of Interior will likewise ensure that the Mosul Police Chief remains friendly to the central government and amenable to Iranian interests. The U.S. must ensure that the post-ISIS holding force in Mosul City is both controlled by the Iraqi government and responsive to its authority. The U.S. must contain and reduce Iran’s influence in Mosul. The Badr Organization’s direct presence in Mosul city and its environs places American service members at risk. Its continued presence in Mosul could also could drive sectarian tensions that ISIS or other insurgent groups could use to recruit, undermining the success of anti-ISIS operations.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Ukraine's Blockade Crisis

By Franklin Holcomb and Charles Frattini III


Rising instability in Ukraine has created an opportunity for Russia to further press its political-military campaign to weaken Kyiv and exert greater control over Ukraine. Ukrainian activists instituted a potentially crippling blockade against territory in Eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian proxies. The blockade has exacerbated tensions between the Ukrainian government and parts of Ukrainian civil society while increasing political and social tensions. Russia has further destabilized the situation by providing additional political and economic support to its separatist proxy forces, which have seized Ukrainian businesses and continue to conduct military operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine while American and Western policy remains in a transitional state. Efforts to strengthen Kyiv and enable it to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty against Russian aggression will be critical to U.S. interests in Europe.

An activist-led blockade of Russian proxy-controlled territory in Eastern Ukraine has increased political and social tensions in Ukraine. The activists, many of whom are Ukrainian veterans, intend to halt the flow of goods between separatist and Ukrainian territory. Blockade leaders condemned Ukraine for profiting from trade with separatists and demanded that Kyiv cease trade with the Russian proxies and release Ukrainian prisoners held by separatists. MP Semenchenko claimed that the blockade would “bring the entire war to an end” by putting economic pressure on the separatists. The blockade threatens a primary source of separatist income but it comes at a cost to Ukraine. The blockade prevents the transfer of anthracite coal, a shortage of which prompted Ukraine to declare a state of emergency in its energy sector on February 15, 2017, and continues to present economic risks. The blockade also provided an excuse for Russian-backed separatist forces to seize Ukrainian-owned and operated enterprises across their territory on March 01 as levels of fighting in the eastern Ukraine steadily increased. Ukrainian efforts to negotiate with the activists failed to make significant progress. Attempts to disperse the activist-led blockade on March 13 prompted protests in support of the activists nationwide. The Ukrainian government took no significant steps to disperse the activists, due to issue’s sensitivity, public support for the activists, and limited political capital to confront the veteran-led blockade. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced a suspension of cargo traffic with occupied-Donbas on March 15th, in an attempt to de-escalate rising tensions and in response to separatist seizures of assets. Poroshenko emphasized that the blockade will continue until the Russian-backed separatists return control of seized assets and comply with the Minsk agreements, an agreement signed by both sides to end the conflict. The Ukrainian government continued to condemn the blockade despite its policy shift. Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman condemned the blockade, stating that it was “in the interests of Russia” because it weakens the Ukrainian economy. Poroshenko accused the activists of finding and exploiting a “raw public nerve” and condemned the blockade as a “special operation aimed at pushing the occupied areas of Ukrainian Donbas towards the Russian Federation” on March 20.

Russia took steps to increase its economic and political support of its proxy forces in order to increase pressure on Kyiv as it struggles to deal effectively with the blockade crisis, and test Western reaction. The Kremlin maintains its objective of forcing Ukraine to re-integrate the separatist republics on Moscow’s terms in order to have a permanent lever of influence within Ukraine. The blockade threatens a primary source of separatist income and could lead to widespread unemployment and social crisis in separatist-held territory. Russia needs to intervene through financial support to prevent the economic collapse of its proxies, or end the blockade. Russia indicated that it would purchase goods from Donbas in order to maintain economic stability on March 06, although reports emerged that mines in Donbas were not operating on March 09. The Russian government also increased its political support for its proxies. Russia officially recognized legal documentation issued by separatist republics on February 18.  This decision prompted Ukrainian nationalist groups to barricade Russian state-owned banks across Ukraine, leading to an escalation of tensions and the 22 March announcement by Russian banks that they intend to immediately cease operations in Ukraine. The Russian lower house of parliament proposed giving preferences in employment and in pursuing Russian citizenship to citizens of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics on March 20[i]. Russia and its proxies may use the blockade to justify further escalation of hostilities in order to force Ukraine to end its economic pressure and pursue legitimization of separatist forces on Moscow’s terms. The Kremlin will also seek to exploit any political crisis in Ukraine to destabilize the pro-Western coalition, undermine Ukraine’s reform efforts, and halt Ukraine’s integration with the West.

Ukraine took concrete steps to continue its fight against corruption and further integrate itself with the West despite increasing instability. The Ukrainian government suspended the Director of its State Fiscal Service due to a corruption investigation on March 03. This action may be a catalyst for a much-needed anti-corruption campaign. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) preliminarily approved Ukraine for a $1 billion loan on March 05. This loan strengthens the Ukrainian government’s ability to fulfill financial obligations that are key to its political stability. Ukraine and Canada extended their bilateral military cooperation through 2019, signaling Ukraine’s continued commitment to meeting Western military standards. The U.S. and its allies must continue to support Kyiv’s efforts to reform and counter corruption.

Iraq Situation Report: March 1-20, 2017

By Emily Anagnostos, Jennifer Cafarella, and Jessa Rose Dury-Agri

Regional actors are vying to dominate the post-ISIS security structure and political order in northern Iraq. Turkey and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are threatening the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Sinjar, west of Mosul City. Sinjar is a historic flashpoint for ethnic tensions and at the center of Turkish, Iranian, and Kurdish interests. The KDP seeks to incorporate Sinjar into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), expanding the KRG’s territorial control. Turkey supports the KDP’s desire to move against the PKK and has threatened to participate in a direct attack. The desire to move against Sinjar could bring Turkey and the KDP into conflict with Iran. Iranian-backed elements of the Popular Mobilization are stationed nearby at Tel Afar and have claimed that the PKK-backed Yazidi militia in Sinjar is part of the Popular Mobilization. Iranian-backed militias could intervene on the side of the PKK in Sinjar if Turkey or the KDP act further, escalating the conflict which could undermine post-ISIS stability in northern Iraq. Russia is also seeking to gain influence in northern Iraq through a financial relationship with the KDP, which could embolden the KDP by granting it greater independence from Baghdad. Russian-owned oil company Rosneft renegotiated a loan with the KRG to pre-finance crude oil exports to Russia on February 21. Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani later met with a senior Russian delegation in Arbil on March 1 to discuss strengthening bilateral relations between the KRG and Russia, marking the first high-level Russian delegation to visit Iraqi Kurdistan. Separately, tribal violence in southern Iraq, particularly in Maysan Province, signals rising intra-Shi’a competition ahead of provincial elections in September 2017.  

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: February 8 - March 19, 2017

This update highlights why Russia remains an unfit partner to fight ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria.  See the new Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project report on Putin's Real Syria Agenda here.

By Jonathan Mautner


Threats to regime security across Syria will likely challenge Russia’s ability to provide decisive air support throughout the country, notwithstanding the resumption of aggressive Russian air operations against opposition terrain in western Aleppo and northern Idlib Provinces from March 3 – 19. The surge in Russian airstrikes in northern Syria signals regime preparations to clear the targeted areas with ground forces, but opposition groups likely preempted that course of action by launching a concerted offensive in the vicinity of regime-held Hama City in central Syria on March 21. Opposition factions seized no fewer than eight towns in northern Hama Province from pro-regime forces within hours, indicating that Russia may need to divert significant air assets from northern Syria in order to secure strategic regime interests in the country’s central corridor. Russia can likely conduct high tempo air operations against opposition forces on both fronts, but it cannot do so and maintain its current campaigns against ISIS in eastern Homs and Aleppo Provinces and opposition groups in Syria’s south. Pro-regime forces, moreover, are also vying to break ISIS’s ongoing siege of the Deir ez Zour Military Airport in eastern Syria and to repel a recently-launched opposition offensive in Damascus City. The confluence of these proliferating threats, the finite supply of Russian airframes in Syria, and the regime’s want for sufficient combat effective ground forces indicates that Russia will have to identify regime security priorities and deploy its air assets accordingly. Notably, the pro-regime alliance has struggled to triage effectively in the past, ceding Palmyra to ISIS merely two days before securing the surrender of opposition-held Aleppo City in December 2016. This experience counsels that Russian air power alone—whatever its allocation—will not enable pro-regime forces to secure Syria in all of its corners.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.

High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.

Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.




Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Russia Moves to Supplant U.S. Role

By Genevieve Casagrande

Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging Russia’s position in Syria to further diminish U.S. influence in the broader Middle East and North Africa. Russia will increasingly constrain U.S. freedom of maneuver in the broader region by expanding its military footprint and its anti-access and area denial zone. Putin advanced his regional strategy from February 27 to March 20, 2017 in three ways. First, he promoted economic relationships with key U.S. allies, including Egypt and Iraqi Kurds. Russia and Egypt reached tentative agreements to establish a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Gulf area and to resume Russian flights to tourist destinations in Sinai. Russia also renegotiated its oil agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government on February 28. Second, Putin cultivated ties to local security forces, particularly those he seeks to draw away from partnership with the U.S., such as the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Russia brokered an agreement to give the Syrian regime control of villages near Manbij, Syria to deter a Turkish-backed offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces, and deployed Russian forces to train the YPG on March 20. Third, Putin took steps to further develop Russian strategic basing across the region. The deployment of Russian special forces to a base in western Egypt in early March signals Russia’s intent to expand its strategic basing along the Mediterranean Sea. Russia’s overtures to Egypt pose a particular concern as NATO conducts greater outreach to Egypt.




The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) produced this map with the Critical Threats Project (CTP). The graphic is part of an intensive multi-month exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Syria. The ISW-CTP team recently released “America’s Way Ahead in Syria,” which details the flaws in the current U.S. approach in Iraq and Syria and proposes the first phase of a strategic reset in the Middle East.